Port Adelaide v Geelong
2025-05-17 16:15:00 +10:00
Adelaide Oval

5.9

39

17.13

115

Geelong won by 76 points

IN

Evans

Rioli

Farrell

McEntee

OUT

IN

Humphries

Henry

Clark

Clohesy

OUT

	Tip	Win %	Margin	✓	MAE	Bits
s10		60%	10 points	✓	66.3	0.26
Aggregate		59%	9 points	✓	67.3	0.25
		70%	16 points	✓	59.7	0.49
		69%	22 points	✓	54.0	0.46
		68%	17 points	✓	59.1	0.44
		66%	14 points	✓	61.8	0.40
		66%	15 points	✓	61.0	0.40
		66%	14 points	✓	62.0	0.39
		65%	13 points	✓	63.5	0.37
		63%	12 points	✓	64.0	0.33
		62%	9 points	✓	66.9	0.31
		62%	10 points	✓	66.1	0.30
		62%	9 points	✓	66.6	0.30
		61%	10 points	✓	65.6	0.30
		60%	9 points	✓	67.1	0.27
		60%	8 points	✓	68.0	0.26
Punters		59%	8 points	✓	68.0	0.24
		58%	6 points	✓	70.0	0.23
		58%	8 points	✓	68.3	0.20
		57%	5 points	✓	70.6	0.18
		55%	5 points	✓	71.0	0.14
		55%	5 points	✓	71.0	0.14
		54%	4 points	✓	72.4	0.12
		54%	10 points	✓	66.0	0.11
		54%	5 points	✓	71.0	0.10
		50%	0 points	✗	76.5	0.00
		53%	3 points	✗	78.9	-0.09
		55%	4 points	✗	80.0	-0.14

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

Drawn games are counted as correct tips.