Adelaide v Melbourne

Adelaide Oval
8.15
63
10.18
78

Melbourne won by 15 points

IN
Nankervis
Parnell
Butts
Berry
Murphy
Sholl
Pedlar
Borlase
OUT
IN
Sparrow
May
Brown
Hore
OUT
TipWin %Margin MAEBits
s10
Melbourne
58% 7 points 8.10.20
Aggregate
Melbourne
57% 6 points 8.90.19
Hyperion
Melbourne
75% 25 points 10.00.59
Squiggle
Melbourne
65% 15 points 0.40.38
Wheelo Ratings
Melbourne
64% 11 points 4.10.35
Cheap Stats
Melbourne
63% 12 points 3.00.33
Massey Ratings
Melbourne
63% 9 points 6.50.32
Elo Predicts!
Melbourne
62% 10 points 5.00.32
Stattraction
Melbourne
62% 5 points 9.50.31
Punters
Melbourne
61% 10 points 5.10.29
The Footycast
Melbourne
61% 11 points 4.00.28
Glicko Ratings
Melbourne
60% 9 points 6.50.26
What Snoo Thinks
Melbourne
59% 7 points 7.60.24
Don't Blame the Data
Melbourne
58% 9 points 5.90.22
Winnable
Melbourne
58% 7 points 8.00.22
Matter of Stats
Melbourne
58% 7 points 7.90.22
The Wooden Finger
Melbourne
56% 5 points 10.00.16
Drop Kick Data
Melbourne
55% 5 points 10.50.14
AFL Scorigami
Melbourne
55% 3 points 12.30.14
The Cruncher
Melbourne
55% 3 points 11.70.12
AFLalytics
Melbourne
54% 4 points 11.30.12
FMI
Melbourne
54% 5 points 10.00.10
footycharts
Melbourne
53% 4 points 11.00.08
Graft
Melbourne
53% 4 points 11.00.08
ZaphBot
Melbourne
52% 1 point 14.00.06
AFL Lab
Melbourne
51% 1 point 14.40.01
Live Ladders
Adelaide
51% 1 point 16.0-0.04
PlusSixOne
Adelaide
52% 2 points 16.6-0.05
Data by Josh
Adelaide
53% 3 points 18.0-0.09
Informed Stats
Adelaide
53% 4 points 19.0-0.09

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

Drawn games are counted as correct tips.

Round 4, 2024