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Posted on June 30, 2017June 30, 2017 by Max Barry

What does the ladder look like if you reverse all the games that were decided by a goal or less? Or if all teams kicked for goal with equal accuracy? Footy Maths has the answers.

Source: FOOTYMATHS INSTITUTE: 15. SCORE REVIEW

CategoriesFootyMaths Institute

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Wins % Range
1
 Western Bulldogs 15.2 124%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–4
2
 Brisbane Lions 14.3 124%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–7
3
 Gold Coast 13.9 117%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–8
4
 Geelong 13.7 117%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–7
5
 Hawthorn 13.3 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–9
6
 GWS 13.2 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–10
7
 Collingwood 13.1 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–7
8
 Adelaide 12.9 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–10
9
 Sydney 12.6 108%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–10
10
 Fremantle 12.2 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–10
11
 Melbourne 10.6 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–15
12
 St Kilda 10.3 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–14
13
 Port Adelaide 9.8 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–15
14
 Carlton 9.8 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–15
15
 North Melbourne 9.1 85%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–16
16
 Essendon 8.2 80%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14–17
17
 Richmond 7.7 79%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–18
18
 West Coast 7.0 74%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18

After 1 game of Round 1, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Sydney 1∗ – – 191.3%
+11.6
9
2
 Gold Coast 1∗ – – 181.2%
+12.9
3
3
 GWS 1∗ – – 128.4%
+12.2
6
4
 Collingwood 1∗ – – 118.2%
+12.1
7
5
 Western Bulldogs 1∗ – – 104.7%
+14.2
1
6
 Carlton 1 1 – 70.9%
+8.8
14
7
 Brisbane Lions –∗ 1 – 95.5%
+14.3
2
8
 Richmond –∗ 1 – 94.7%
+7.7
17
9
 St Kilda –∗ 1 – 84.6%
+10.3
12
10
 Hawthorn –∗ 1 – 77.9%
+13.3
5
11
 Geelong –∗ 1 – 55.2%
+13.7
4
12
 Adelaide –∗ – –
+12.9
8
13
 Essendon –∗ – –
+8.2
16
14
 Fremantle –∗ – –
+12.2
10
15
 Melbourne –∗ – –
+10.6
11
16
 North Melbourne –∗ – –
+9.1
15
17
 Port Adelaide –∗ – –
+9.8
13
18
 West Coast –∗ – –
+7.0
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
HBin

4 1

5 1.2329 1.23 28.3167 28.32 83.3333 83.3%
AFLalytics

4 1

5 0.9011 0.90 26.2750 26.27 83.3333 83.3%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 1

5 0.3516 0.35 27.0533 27.05 83.3333 83.3%
Graft

3 1

4 1.2558 1.26 29.8333 29.83 66.6667 66.7%
Matter of Stats

3 1

4 0.8666 0.87 27.1733 27.17 66.6667 66.7%
What Snoo Thinks

3 1

4 0.8577 0.86 23.8233 23.82 66.6667 66.7%
Elo Predicts!

3 1

4 0.7320 0.73 30.1667 30.17 66.6667 66.7%
Glicko Ratings

3 1

4 0.6961 0.70 30.0817 30.08 66.6667 66.7%
footycharts

3 1

4 0.5190 0.52 27.0800 27.08 66.6667 66.7%
AFL Scorigami

3 1

4 0.4917 0.49 28.6067 28.61 66.6667 66.7%
Hyperion

3 1

4 0.4820 0.48 29.3333 29.33 66.6667 66.7%
Drop Kick Data

3 1

4 0.3962 0.40 27.0100 27.01 66.6667 66.7%
Wheelo Ratings

3 1

4 -0.1894 -0.19 30.6167 30.62 66.6667 66.7%
The Cruncher

2 1

3 0.8907 0.89 27.3717 27.37 50.0000 50.0%
Stattraction

2 1

3 0.7746 0.77 30.7533 30.75 50.0000 50.0%
Don't Blame the Data

2 1

3 0.7607 0.76 31.6283 31.63 50.0000 50.0%
The Wooden Finger

2 1

3 0.6364 0.64 30.1667 30.17 50.0000 50.0%
Massey Ratings

2 1

3 0.5866 0.59 31.5000 31.50 50.0000 50.0%
Aggregate

2 1

3 0.5678 0.57 28.7500 28.75 50.0000 50.0%
s10

2 1

3 0.5277 0.53 29.2917 29.29 50.0000 50.0%
The Footycast

2 1

3 0.4094 0.41 33.5333 33.53 50.0000 50.0%
Informed Stats

2 1

3 0.3774 0.38 35.8333 35.83 50.0000 50.0%
PlusSixOne

2 1

3 0.3567 0.36 28.4833 28.48 50.0000 50.0%
Live Ladders

2 1

3 0.3047 0.30 26.8333 26.83 50.0000 50.0%
Punters

2 1

3 0.1638 0.16 29.4833 29.48 50.0000 50.0%
In The Game

2 1

3 0.0626 0.06 30.7233 30.72 50.0000 50.0%
AFL Lab

2 1

3 0.0131 0.01 35.0983 35.10 50.0000 50.0%
ZaphBot

2 1

3 -0.2186 -0.22 39.6667 39.67 50.0000 50.0%
Cheap Stats

3 0

3 -0.2550 -0.26 27.3333 27.33 50.0000 50.0%
Squiggle

1 1

2 0.1614 0.16 31.7667 31.77 33.3333 33.3%
Winnable

1 1

2 -0.3681 -0.37 34.0767 34.08 33.3333 33.3%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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