Every Shot in the 2017 Coleman Medal Race

Figuring Footy compares the Coleman Medal contenders:

The injury to Josh Kennedy is dragging on. With Adam Simpson ruling out the two-time Coleman medalist from the Eagles’ elimination final rematch with the Dogs on Saturday, the calf injury that was originally expected to see Kennedy miss just the one game is now stretching into its sixth week. This is bad news for the Eagles, but it does have the positive side effect of throwing the race for the Coleman medal wide open.

Source: Every Shot in the 2017 Coleman Medal Race – Figuring Footy

Wins

Range

Geelong

16.4

126%

Melbourne

14.3

119%

2–5

GWS

14.3

114%

2–5

Carlton

14.3

112%

3–6

Sydney

14.3

116%

2–4

Port Adelaide

13.4

112%

4–6

Collingwood

12.7

108%

7–8

Western Bulldogs

12.1

111%

7–10

Brisbane Lions

11.8

111%

9–11

Gold Coast

11.8

101%

8–11

Essendon

11.8

95%

9–11

Fremantle

11.0

100%

12–13

St Kilda

10.6

99%

12–13

Adelaide

9.0

93%

Hawthorn

8.1

86%

15–16

West Coast

7.9

79%

15–17

Richmond

7.2

83%

16–17

North Melbourne

3.7

63%

PROJECTIONS

History

Wins

Finish

Geelong

6∗

–

141.3%

+10.4

Sydney

5∗

–

135.3%

+9.3

GWS

5∗

–

129.7%

+9.3

Melbourne

–

126.1%

+9.3

Carlton

5∗

–

117.5%

+9.3

Port Adelaide

4∗

–

121.2%

+9.4

Essendon

4∗

–

92.7%

+7.8

Western Bulldogs

3∗

–

123.0%

+9.1

Fremantle

3∗

–

108.0%

+8.0

Collingwood

3∗

–

97.6%

+9.7

Gold Coast

3∗

–

93.9%

+8.8

Brisbane Lions

2∗

–

105.0%

+9.8

St Kilda

2∗

–

89.6%

+8.6

West Coast

2∗

–

75.5%

+5.9

Adelaide

1∗

–

84.1%

+8.0

Hawthorn

1∗

–

77.1%

+7.1

Richmond

–

75.5%

+6.2

North Melbourne

–∗

–

57.0%

+3.7

Models Leaderboard

	Tips	Bits	MAE	Correct
3 7 7 5 9 4 5 1	41	8.54	23.15	74.5%
3 7 6 4 9 4 5 1	39	10.44	23.40	70.9%
3 7 6 4 9 4 5 1	39	8.07	24.11	70.9%
1 7 7 4 9 4 5 1	38	9.19	23.60	69.1%
Punters 3 7 6 4 9 4 4 1	38	8.21	23.81	69.1%
3 7 6 4 9 4 4 1	38	8.15	24.40	69.1%
3 8 7 4 8 4 3 1	38	7.91	24.44	69.1%
3 7 6 4 8 4 5 1	38	7.79	25.02	69.1%
Aggregate 3 6 6 4 9 4 5 1	38	7.62	24.32	69.1%
2 7 6 4 9 4 5 1	38	6.40	24.52	69.1%
s10 3 6 6 4 8 4 5 1	37	7.93	24.50	67.3%
1 7 6 4 9 4 5 1	37	7.00	25.16	67.3%
3 6 6 5 8 4 4 1	37	6.95	24.97	67.3%
3 6 6 4 8 4 5 1	37	6.40	25.11	67.3%
3 5 6 6 8 4 4 1	37	6.35	24.40	67.3%
3 7 5 4 8 4 5 1	37	4.98	26.31	67.3%
3 7 6 4 9 3 4 1	37	4.75	24.12	67.3%
3 6 6 4 8 4 4 1	36	7.73	25.02	65.5%
2 6 6 4 9 4 4 1	36	7.14	25.11	65.5%
2 7 8 4 7 4 3 1	36	6.21	25.12	65.5%
3 6 6 4 9 4 3 1	36	5.83	25.16	65.5%
3 7 5 4 8 4 4 1	36	5.55	25.05	65.5%
3 5 6 5 9 4 3 1	36	5.48	25.82	65.5%
2 7 6 4 8 4 4 1	36	4.15	25.47	65.5%
3 7 6 4 6 4 4 1	35	9.98	25.02	63.6%
3 6 6 4 7 4 4 1	35	7.11	25.28	63.6%
3 6 6 3 8 4 4 1	35	6.87	24.99	63.6%
2 6 6 4 7 4 4 1	34	7.38	24.70	61.8%
1 5 6 4 9 4 3 1	33	5.01	26.02	60.0%
1 7 6 5 5 4 4 1	33	3.42	27.49	60.0%