Skip to content
Squiggle
Follow @SquiggleAFL

Does home ground advantage still exist?

Posted on June 29, 2017June 29, 2017 by Max Barry

The Arc @ ESPN takes a close look at home ground advantage.

A spate of upsets have left many of us pondering whether or not home ground advantage is still a thing in the AFL. It’s time to answer that question.

Source: Footy Forensics: Does home ground advantage still exist?

CategoriesThe Arc

Post navigation

Previous PostPrevious Time in front vs wins
Next PostNext Every Shot in the 2017 Coleman Medal Race

Wins % Range
1
 Geelong 16.0 136%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Brisbane Lions 16.0 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Richmond 16.0 114%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
4
 Collingwood 15.0 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4
5
 West Coast 15.0 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5
6
 GWS 13.0 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6
7
 Western Bulldogs 12.0 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7
8
 Essendon 12.0 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8
9
 Hawthorn 11.0 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9
10
 Port Adelaide 11.0 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
11
 Adelaide 10.0 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11
12
 North Melbourne 10.0 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12
13
 Fremantle 9.0 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13
14
 St Kilda 9.0 84%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14
15
 Sydney 8.0 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 Carlton 7.0 84%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 Melbourne 5.0 79%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
18
 Gold Coast 3.0 61%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After Round 23, 2019.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Geelong 16 6 0 135.7%
+0.0
1
2
 Brisbane Lions 16 6 0 118.3%
+0.0
2
3
 Richmond 16 6 0 113.7%
+0.0
3
4
 Collingwood 15 7 0 117.7%
+0.0
4
5
 West Coast 15 7 0 112.5%
+0.0
5
6
 GWS 13 9 0 115.4%
+0.0
6
7
 Western Bulldogs 12 10 0 107.2%
+0.0
7
8
 Essendon 12 10 0 95.4%
+0.0
8
9
 Hawthorn 11 11 0 108.7%
+0.0
9
10
 Port Adelaide 11 11 0 105.4%
+0.0
10
11
 Adelaide 10 12 0 100.9%
+0.0
11
12
 North Melbourne 10 12 0 99.5%
+0.0
12
13
 Fremantle 9 13 0 91.9%
+0.0
13
14
 St Kilda 9 13 0 83.9%
+0.0
14
15
 Sydney 8 14 0 97.7%
+0.0
15
16
 Carlton 7 15 0 84.5%
+0.0
16
17
 Melbourne 5 17 0 78.6%
+0.0
17
18
 Gold Coast 3 19 0 60.5%
+0.0
18

Live Squiggle

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Massey Ratings

3 3 5 6 5 9 8 5 7 7 7 3 6 4 5 4 6 6 7 7 6 7 8 2 1 1

138 16.18 27.81 67.3%
Punters

3 4 6 5 5 8 7 6 8 7 7 4 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 7 8 3 8 3 1 1

137 23.79 26.57 66.8%
The Arc

3 4 6 5 5 8 7 4 8 7 7 5 6 4 5 5 6 6 5 7 7 5 8 2 1 1

137 23.49 26.87 66.8%
Swinburne

3 3 5 6 5 8 7 7 7 7 6 3 6 5 4 5 6 6 6 7 7 6 8 1 1 1

136 23.56 27.45 66.3%
Matter of Stats

4 5 6 4 4 9 7 6 8 6 8 4 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 6 8 4 8 3 1 1

136 22.19 26.93 66.3%
Graft

5 3 6 5 5 9 7 7 7 8 6 4 4 5 4 5 5 5 6 7 7 5 8 1 1 1

136 21.12 26.93 66.3%
Stattraction

5 4 6 6 5 9 7 6 8 6 6 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 7 6 6 5 8 1 1 1

136 19.56 28.22 66.3%
Squiggle

5 4 5 4 6 8 7 5 8 7 7 4 5 4 4 6 5 5 6 6 8 3 8 3 1 1

135 23.60 27.08 65.9%
Footy Maths Institute

4 3 5 5 5 9 8 7 7 8 7 3 5 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 7 5 7 2 1 0

135 21.44 28.15 65.9%
Live Ladders

4 3 6 6 4 8 7 6 7 8 6 3 4 4 4 6 5 6 5 7 7 6 8 2 1 1

134 24.50 26.23 65.4%
AFLalytics

3 2 6 6 5 8 7 4 8 7 7 5 5 4 4 5 4 4 6 7 9 5 8 2 1 1

133 25.14 26.83 64.9%
Aggregate

3 3 6 4 5 8 7 6 7 7 7 3 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 4 8 2 1 1

132 23.25 26.70 64.4%
AFL Lab

5 4 7 5 5 8 7 5 7 6 7 3 5 3 5 4 4 4 8 7 7 5 7 1 1 1

131 21.13 26.89 63.9%
Fat Stats

3 3 4 4 5 8 7 6 7 6 7 3 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 7 7 5 8 2 1 1

131 11.91 29.83 63.9%
PlusSixOne

4 3 5 4 5 9 7 7 8 7 6 4 6 5 4 5 6 6 4 6 7 3 8

129 16.16 26.82 65.2%
AFL Gains

1 6 5 0 4 7 7 6 7 7 7 3 6 4 5 4 6 6 6 7 7 5 8 3 1 1

129 12.54 27.63 62.9%
HPN

4 4 5 5 4 8 5 5 8 6 5 2 5 4 4 6 4 5 5 7 8 4 6 4 1 1

125 4.99 29.61 61.0%

AFL Ladder Predictor

Squiggle AFL Ladder Predictor

Twitter

Tweets by SquiggleAFL

Friends of Squiggle

  • The Arc
  • Figuring Footy
  • Live Ladders
  • Matter of Stats
  • BigFooty
  • Swinburne University
  • FMI
  • PlusSixOne
  • Stattraction
  • HPN
  • Graft
  • Massey Ratings
  • AFLalytics
  • AFL Gains
  • AFL Lab
  • Fat Stats

About Squiggle

Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.