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Does home ground advantage still exist?

Posted on June 29, 2017June 29, 2017 by Max Barry

The Arc @ ESPN takes a close look at home ground advantage.

A spate of upsets have left many of us pondering whether or not home ground advantage is still a thing in the AFL. It’s time to answer that question.

Source: Footy Forensics: Does home ground advantage still exist?

CategoriesThe Arc

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Wins % Range
1
 Sydney 17.3 138%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–3
2
 Fremantle 16.7 123%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–4
3
 Hawthorn 16.1 125%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–3
4
 Brisbane Lions 15.0 123%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–5
5
 Geelong 14.9 121%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–5
6
 Gold Coast 13.3 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–8
7
 Adelaide 12.9 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–9
8
 Western Bulldogs 12.9 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–9
9
 Collingwood 12.1 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–10
10
 Melbourne 12.2 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–11
11
 St Kilda 11.0 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–13
12
 GWS 10.9 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–12
13
 North Melbourne 9.7 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
14
 Port Adelaide 9.3 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–14
15
 Carlton 7.0 86%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–16
16
 Essendon 5.6 75%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
17
 West Coast 5.6 66%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–17
18
 Richmond 4.2 63%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After Round 9, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Sydney 8 1 – 157.2%
+9.3
1
2
 Fremantle 8 1 – 131.6%
+8.7
2
3
 Hawthorn 6 2 1 116.8%
+9.6
3
4
 Brisbane Lions 6 3 – 124.5%
+9.0
4
5
 Geelong 6 3 – 120.4%
+8.9
5
6
 Gold Coast 6 3 – 118.5%
+7.3
6
7
 Melbourne 6 3 – 103.9%
+6.2
10
8
 Adelaide 5 4 – 101.7%
+7.9
7
9
 Western Bulldogs 5 4 – 92.4%
+7.9
8
10
 Collingwood 4 4 1 99.9%
+7.6
9
11
 St Kilda 4 5 – 109.3%
+7.0
11
12
 North Melbourne 4 5 – 104.4%
+5.7
13
13
 GWS 4 5 – 91.1%
+6.9
12
14
 Port Adelaide 3 6 – 109.5%
+6.3
14
15
 West Coast 2 7 – 60.1%
+3.6
17
16
 Carlton 1 8 – 79.3%
+6.0
15
17
 Essendon 1 8 – 71.8%
+4.6
16
18
 Richmond 1 8 – 60.3%
+3.2
18

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8

68 23.9433 23.94 23.9499 23.95 83.9506 84.0%
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8

67 24.7697 24.77 25.1479 25.15 82.7160 82.7%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9

65 24.6484 24.65 25.2799 25.28 80.2469 80.2%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8

65 22.4920 22.49 25.5348 25.53 80.2469 80.2%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7

65 15.9517 15.95 25.2227 25.22 80.2469 80.2%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8

64 24.8655 24.87 24.8037 24.80 79.0123 79.0%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9

64 24.2724 24.27 26.4198 26.42 79.0123 79.0%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9

64 22.6357 22.64 25.4804 25.48 79.0123 79.0%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9

64 17.7029 17.70 26.3457 26.35 79.0123 79.0%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8

63 25.4473 25.45 26.0486 26.05 77.7778 77.8%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7

63 25.3622 25.36 25.9604 25.96 77.7778 77.8%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8

63 23.4387 23.44 25.6358 25.64 77.7778 77.8%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9

62 22.6674 22.67 27.2593 27.26 76.5432 76.5%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8

62 22.1946 22.19 25.9637 25.96 76.5432 76.5%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7

62 21.7398 21.74 25.5984 25.60 76.5432 76.5%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9

62 21.1189 21.12 26.3644 26.36 76.5432 76.5%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8

61 22.8404 22.84 26.8530 26.85 75.3086 75.3%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6

61 21.1374 21.14 25.9153 25.92 75.3086 75.3%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8

61 20.4411 20.44 26.2296 26.23 75.3086 75.3%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7

59 22.5274 22.53 26.8351 26.84 72.8395 72.8%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9

59 22.0226 22.02 26.2407 26.24 72.8395 72.8%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8

59 21.6533 21.65 25.5999 25.60 72.8395 72.8%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7

59 20.5137 20.51 27.2469 27.25 72.8395 72.8%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7

59 20.4606 20.46 26.4815 26.48 72.8395 72.8%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9

59 19.8252 19.83 28.6914 28.69 72.8395 72.8%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8

58 18.0475 18.05 26.6469 26.65 71.6049 71.6%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7

57 18.4053 18.41 26.3554 26.36 70.3704 70.4%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7

57 17.2819 17.28 26.5494 26.55 70.3704 70.4%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9

55 18.0647 18.06 26.7901 26.79 67.9012 67.9%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9

53 16.4068 16.41 27.3333 27.33 †9 73.6111 73.6%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9

43 18.0250 18.02 27.8393 27.84 †25 76.7857 76.8%

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