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Footy Forensics: Hawthorn to Western Bulldogs

Posted on June 1, 2017 by Max Barry

Don’t miss Part 2 of Matt Cowgill’s amazing graphgasm smorgasbord over at ESPN:

A deep dive into footy data turns up the graph that tells your team’s story so far in 2017. This week, we analyse Hawthorn through to the Western Bulldogs.

Source: Footy Forensics Your AFL club’s key game trend part II

CategoriesUncategorized TagsThe Arc

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Wins % Range
1
 Melbourne 15.7 128%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Geelong 15.2 125%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–3
3
 Brisbane Lions 15.0 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–5
4
 Sydney 14.3 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–6
5
 Fremantle 14.3 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–6
6
 Carlton 14.1 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–8
7
 Richmond 13.3 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–8
8
 Collingwood 13.4 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–10
9
 Western Bulldogs 12.4 116%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
10
 Gold Coast 11.9 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–12
11
 St Kilda 11.9 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–11
12
 Port Adelaide 10.9 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
13
 Adelaide 8.4 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
14
 Hawthorn 8.0 91%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
15
 GWS 7.0 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 Essendon 6.2 83%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 West Coast 3.5 60%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
18
 North Melbourne 2.3 57%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After Round 15, 2022.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Melbourne 11 3 – 139.2%
+4.7
1
2
 Geelong 10 4 – 125.6%
+5.2
2
3
 Brisbane Lions 10 4 – 124.9%
+5.0
3
4
 Fremantle 10 4 – 122.6%
+4.3
5
5
 Carlton 10 4 – 114.6%
+4.1
6
6
 Sydney 9 5 – 119.5%
+5.3
4
7
 Collingwood 9 5 – 106.0%
+4.4
8
8
 Western Bulldogs 8 6 – 120.9%
+4.4
9
9
 Richmond 8 6 – 116.2%
+5.3
7
10
 St Kilda 8 6 – 107.3%
+3.9
11
11
 Gold Coast 7 7 – 110.5%
+4.9
10
12
 Port Adelaide 7 7 – 105.1%
+3.9
12
13
 Adelaide 5 9 – 85.5%
+3.4
13
14
 GWS 4 10 – 90.9%
+3.0
15
15
 Hawthorn 4 10 – 85.6%
+4.0
14
16
 Essendon 3 11 – 78.6%
+3.2
16
17
 West Coast 2 12 – 55.8%
+1.5
17
18
 North Melbourne 1 13 – 52.2%
+1.3
18

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
PlusSixOne

5 6 7 6 7 8 5 7 7 6 8 5 5 5 8

95 16.88 26.84 75.4%
s10

5 6 8 6 6 8 5 7 6 7 7 4 5 4 8

92 21.24 25.66 73.0%
Massey Ratings

5 6 6 6 7 8 5 7 7 6 8 3 5 5 8

92 20.22 26.23 73.0%
Live Ladders

5 6 7 6 6 7 6 7 6 7 7 4 5 5 7

91 22.76 25.79 72.2%
AFLalytics

4 6 6 6 6 8 6 7 7 6 7 4 5 5 8

91 22.59 25.11 72.2%
AFL Lab

4 6 7 5 6 8 7 8 6 6 7 3 5 5 8

91 22.54 25.72 72.2%
The Cruncher

6 6 7 7 5 7 6 7 6 6 6 4 5 5 8

91 17.54 27.26 72.2%
Data by Josh

5 6 7 5 7 8 5 8 6 6 7 3 5 5 7

90 24.13 24.87 71.4%
Squiggle

5 4 7 6 7 8 5 6 6 7 7 5 5 4 8

90 21.46 25.43 71.4%
Graft

5 6 6 6 6 8 5 7 6 6 7 4 5 5 8

90 19.11 26.20 71.4%
AFL Scorigami

5 7 7 6 6 8 5 7 7 6 7 3 5 4 7

90 18.86 26.47 71.4%
The Flag

6 6 6 4 7 8 6 7 7 7 7 4 4 4 6

89 16.76 26.37 70.6%
Hyperion

5 6 7 5 6 7 5 7 6 6 7 4 5 5 8

89 16.22 26.85 70.6%
Aggregate

5 5 7 6 6 8 5 7 6 6 7 3 5 4 8

88 20.55 25.70 69.8%
Glicko Ratings

4 5 7 5 6 7 5 7 6 7 7 4 5 5 8

88 17.06 26.94 69.8%
Drop Kick Data

4 6 7 6 6 8 5 7 6 6 7 3 5 4 8

88 16.88 26.79 69.8%
FMI

5 6 7 6 5 6 6 7 6 6 6 4 5 5 8

88 14.11 26.77 69.8%
Punters

6 5 7 5 7 8 5 6 6 6 7 3 5 4 7

87 22.27 25.16 69.0%
The Footycast

4 6 7 5 6 8 5 7 6 7 7 3 5 4 7

87 20.09 25.59 69.0%
The Wooden Finger

5 6 7 6 5 8 5 7 6 6 6 3 5 5 7

87 15.98 26.99 69.0%
Stattraction

6 5 6 4 6 8 8 6 7 6 6 4 4 4 7

87 13.11 26.79 69.0%
Cheap Stats

6 5 6 4 6 8 5 7 7 6 7 3 5 4 7

86 20.87 26.26 68.3%
Elo Predicts!

6 4 6 4 6 8 5 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 8

86 14.24 26.72 68.3%
Wheelo Ratings

5 4 6 4 6 8 6 6 6 6 8 3 5 4 8

85 23.02 25.14 67.5%
Matter of Stats

4 5 6 5 7 8 5 6 6 6 6 4 5 4 7

84 22.79 25.11 66.7%
ZaphBot

5 5 6 4 7 7 5 7 5 6 8 2 3 3 8

81 14.87 27.33 64.3%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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