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Footy Forensics: Hawthorn to Western Bulldogs

Posted on June 1, 2017 by Max Barry

Don’t miss Part 2 of Matt Cowgill’s amazing graphgasm smorgasbord over at ESPN:

A deep dive into footy data turns up the graph that tells your team’s story so far in 2017. This week, we analyse Hawthorn through to the Western Bulldogs.

Source: Footy Forensics Your AFL club’s key game trend part II

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Wins % Range
1
 Collingwood 17.9 129%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Geelong 16.3 135%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Adelaide 15.3 134%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
4
 Brisbane Lions 15.2 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–5
5
 Western Bulldogs 14.9 134%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–6
6
 Gold Coast 14.3 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–9
7
 Hawthorn 14.4 114%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–7
8
 Fremantle 13.9 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–8
9
 GWS 13.1 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
10
 Sydney 10.5 97%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–11
11
 Port Adelaide 10.1 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–12
12
 Carlton 9.6 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–12
13
 Melbourne 8.7 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–15
14
 St Kilda 8.7 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–15
15
 Essendon 8.9 78%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–15
16
 North Melbourne 6.9 78%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 Richmond 5.0 66%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
18
 West Coast 3.3 68%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 1 game of Round 17, 2025.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Collingwood 13∗ 2 – 135.8%
+4.9
1
2
 Brisbane Lions 10∗ 4 1 113.4%
+4.7
4
3
 Adelaide 10∗ 5 – 139.8%
+5.3
3
4
 Western Bulldogs 10 6 – 133.2%
+4.9
5
5
 Geelong 10∗ 5 – 127.5%
+6.3
2
6
 Hawthorn 10∗ 5 – 118.4%
+4.4
7
7
 Fremantle 10∗ 5 – 110.4%
+3.9
8
8
 Gold Coast 9∗ 5 – 120.3%
+5.3
6
9
 GWS 9∗ 6 – 107.6%
+4.1
9
10
 Port Adelaide 7∗ 8 – 88.6%
+3.1
11
11
 Carlton 6∗ 9 – 100.4%
+3.6
12
12
 Sydney 6∗ 9 – 92.1%
+4.5
10
13
 Essendon 6∗ 8 – 77.5%
+2.9
15
14
 Melbourne 5∗ 10 – 86.7%
+3.7
13
15
 St Kilda 5∗ 10 – 86.2%
+3.7
14
16
 North Melbourne 4 11 1 77.3%
+2.4
16
17
 Richmond 3∗ 12 – 64.8%
+2.0
17
18
 West Coast 1∗ 14 – 65.2%
+2.3
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 8 7 7 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 6 1

102 24.93 26.88 75.6%
AFL Lab

2 8 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 5 5 6 6 4 7 1

101 22.22 27.30 74.8%
Aggregate

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 3 7 1

100 24.19 26.69 74.1%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 8 7 8 5 7 6 8 5 6 5 5 6 4 7 1

100 24.08 27.49 74.1%
Punters

1 8 5 7 7 6 4 7 6 7 6 7 5 6 6 4 7 1

100 23.21 26.96 74.1%
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 7 7 8 5 7 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 7 1

99 25.69 26.47 73.3%
Winnable

1 8 6 6 7 7 4 9 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 6 1

99 25.57 26.55 73.3%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 7 5 7 4 7 8 6 5 6 6 6 6 4 7 1

99 24.16 28.18 73.3%
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 8 6 6 4 6 4 4 6 1

99 23.99 26.58 73.3%
s10

2 8 5 7 7 6 5 7 7 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 1

99 23.98 26.60 73.3%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 7 6 7 4 9 7 5 6 5 5 6 5 4 6 1

98 23.90 27.88 72.6%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 6 7 7 5 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 6 1

97 26.06 26.31 71.9%
Squiggle

1 7 5 8 7 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 4 4 7 1

96 22.27 27.32 71.1%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 6 7 6 4 6 7 7 6 6 5 6 4 4 6 1

95 24.74 26.33 70.4%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 7 7 6 4 8 7 6 6 6 4 6 4 3 6 1

95 23.57 26.95 70.4%
Stattraction

2 7 4 8 6 6 4 8 7 6 5 5 4 6 6 4 6 1

95 22.38 27.37 70.4%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 7 7 7 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 4 3 7 1

95 21.37 26.87 70.4%
ZaphBot

1 8 6 7 7 6 3 7 7 5 5 7 3 5 6 5 6 1

95 21.18 27.50 70.4%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 6 7 6 4 7 6 6 6 6 4 6 4 5 6 1

94 24.45 26.26 69.6%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 7 6 8 4 7 8 7 5 5 4 6 5 3 6 1

94 24.40 27.13 69.6%
The Footycast

1 7 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 1

94 15.87 29.07 69.6%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 1

92 23.03 27.24 68.1%
footycharts

2 7 3 8 7 6 5 8 6 6 4 6 4 5 5 3 6 1

92 21.33 28.05 68.1%
Graft

1 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 7 1

91 20.01 28.43 67.4%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 6 7 6 4 8 7 6 4 5 4 4 5 4 7 1

89 21.10 27.50 65.9%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 6 7 6 6 6 8 5 3 6 4 6 6 4 6 1

89 12.04 29.24 65.9%
Hyperion

1 7 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 5 3 7 4 4 6 4 6 1

88 18.66 28.75 65.2%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 6 4 3 6 1

87 18.19 28.25 64.4%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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