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Footy Forensics: Hawthorn to Western Bulldogs

Posted on June 1, 2017 by Max Barry

Don’t miss Part 2 of Matt Cowgill’s amazing graphgasm smorgasbord over at ESPN:

A deep dive into footy data turns up the graph that tells your team’s story so far in 2017. This week, we analyse Hawthorn through to the Western Bulldogs.

Source: Footy Forensics Your AFL club’s key game trend part II

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Wins % Range
1
 Collingwood 17.7 130%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Geelong 16.5 136%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Adelaide 14.9 130%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–5
4
 Brisbane Lions 15.1 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–6
5
 Western Bulldogs 14.3 133%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–8
6
 Gold Coast 14.5 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–8
7
 Hawthorn 14.1 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–7
8
 Fremantle 13.6 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–8
9
 GWS 12.6 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9
10
 Carlton 11.3 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
11
 Sydney 10.2 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
12
 Port Adelaide 10.2 87%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
13
 St Kilda 9.3 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
14
 Melbourne 9.1 91%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–15
15
 Essendon 8.9 78%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14–15
16
 North Melbourne 6.2 78%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
17
 Richmond 5.4 70%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
18
 West Coast 3.1 67%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 2 games of Round 15, 2025.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Collingwood 11∗ 2 – 134.0%
+6.7
1
2
 Brisbane Lions 10 4 1 113.4%
+4.6
4
3
 Geelong 10 5 – 127.5%
+6.5
2
4
 Adelaide 9∗ 5 – 135.2%
+5.9
3
5
 Hawthorn 9∗ 5 – 111.6%
+5.1
7
6
 Fremantle 9∗ 5 – 110.0%
+4.6
8
7
 Gold Coast 8∗ 4 – 123.2%
+6.5
6
8
 GWS 8∗ 6 – 107.6%
+4.6
9
9
 Western Bulldogs 7∗ 6 – 127.7%
+7.3
5
10
 Carlton 6∗ 7 – 106.7%
+5.3
10
11
 Port Adelaide 6∗ 7 – 84.7%
+4.2
12
12
 Essendon 6∗ 8 – 77.5%
+2.9
15
13
 Sydney 5∗ 8 – 90.1%
+5.2
11
14
 St Kilda 5∗ 8 – 87.8%
+4.3
13
15
 Melbourne 5∗ 9 – 87.1%
+4.1
14
16
 North Melbourne 3∗ 9 1 80.6%
+2.7
16
17
 Richmond 3∗ 10 – 69.4%
+2.4
17
18
 West Coast 1∗ 13 – 65.1%
+2.1
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 8 7 7 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 1

91 19.88 27.34 74.6%
Winnable

1 8 6 6 7 7 4 9 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 1

90 21.08 26.91 73.8%
Aggregate

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 1

90 19.37 27.21 73.8%
AFL Lab

2 8 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 5 5 6 6 1

90 18.24 27.81 73.8%
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 7 7 8 5 7 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 1

89 21.27 27.06 73.0%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 8 7 8 5 7 6 8 5 6 5 5 6 1

89 20.04 27.82 73.0%
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 8 6 6 4 6 4 1

89 19.39 27.10 73.0%
Punters

1 8 5 7 7 6 4 7 6 7 6 7 5 6 6 1

89 17.70 27.56 73.0%
s10

2 8 5 7 7 6 5 7 7 6 5 6 5 6 5 1

88 19.30 27.14 72.1%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 7 5 7 4 7 8 6 5 6 6 6 6 1

88 18.42 28.80 72.1%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 7 6 7 4 9 7 5 6 5 5 6 5 1

88 18.40 28.50 72.1%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 6 7 7 5 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 1

87 21.42 26.79 71.3%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 7 7 6 4 8 7 6 6 6 4 6 4 1

86 18.81 27.36 70.5%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 7 6 8 4 7 8 7 5 5 4 6 5 1

85 20.16 27.51 69.7%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 6 7 6 4 6 7 7 6 6 5 6 4 1

85 20.02 26.84 69.7%
Stattraction

2 7 4 8 6 6 4 8 7 6 5 5 4 6 6 1

85 17.63 28.01 69.7%
Squiggle

1 7 5 8 7 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 4 1

85 17.13 28.03 69.7%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 7 7 7 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 4 1

85 16.44 27.39 69.7%
ZaphBot

1 8 6 7 7 6 3 7 7 5 5 7 3 5 6 1

84 16.25 28.10 68.9%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 6 7 6 4 7 6 6 6 6 4 6 4 1

83 18.63 26.89 68.0%
footycharts

2 7 3 8 7 6 5 8 6 6 4 6 4 5 5 1

83 17.25 28.36 68.0%
The Footycast

1 7 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 6 5 6 5 6 5 1

83 11.62 29.66 68.0%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 1

81 18.18 27.76 66.4%
Graft

1 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 1

80 15.01 29.12 65.6%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 6 7 6 6 6 8 5 3 6 4 6 6 1

79 9.50 29.38 64.8%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 6 7 6 4 8 7 6 4 5 4 4 5 1

78 16.29 28.00 63.9%
Hyperion

1 7 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 5 3 7 4 4 6 1

78 14.14 29.11 63.9%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 6 4 1

78 13.33 28.63 63.9%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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