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Footy Forensics: Hawthorn to Western Bulldogs

Posted on June 1, 2017 by Max Barry

Don’t miss Part 2 of Matt Cowgill’s amazing graphgasm smorgasbord over at ESPN:

A deep dive into footy data turns up the graph that tells your team’s story so far in 2017. This week, we analyse Hawthorn through to the Western Bulldogs.

Source: Footy Forensics Your AFL club’s key game trend part II

CategoriesUncategorized TagsThe Arc

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Wins % Range
1
 Fremantle 20.0 144%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Sydney 17.5 134%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Hawthorn 15.9 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
4
 Brisbane Lions 15.2 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–6
5
 Adelaide 14.8 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–6
6
 Geelong 14.5 123%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–7
7
 Melbourne 14.5 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–7
8
 Collingwood 13.1 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
9
 Western Bulldogs 13.0 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
10
 St Kilda 11.0 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–11
11
 Carlton 11.4 97%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–12
12
 GWS 10.9 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
13
 North Melbourne 9.4 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13
14
 Gold Coast 7.9 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14
15
 Port Adelaide 7.4 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 West Coast 4.7 70%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 Richmond 3.4 61%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18
18
 Essendon 2.5 63%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18

After 2 games of Round 22, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Fremantle 18∗ 2 – 147.3%
+2.0
1
2
 Sydney 15∗ 5 – 129.5%
+2.5
2
3
 Hawthorn 14 6 1 118.2%
+1.4
3
4
 Brisbane Lions 14 7 – 117.8%
+1.2
4
5
 Adelaide 13∗ 7 – 117.6%
+1.8
5
6
 Melbourne 13∗ 7 – 107.8%
+1.5
7
7
 Geelong 12∗ 8 – 117.2%
+2.5
6
8
 Western Bulldogs 12 9 – 93.9%
+1.0
9
9
 Collingwood 11∗ 8 1 105.6%
+1.6
8
10
 Carlton 10∗ 10 – 97.0%
+1.4
11
11
 St Kilda 9∗ 11 – 104.3%
+2.0
10
12
 GWS 9∗ 11 – 99.0%
+1.9
12
13
 North Melbourne 9 12 – 90.9%
+0.4
13
14
 Gold Coast 7∗ 13 – 94.7%
+0.9
14
15
 Port Adelaide 6∗ 14 – 95.1%
+1.4
15
16
 West Coast 4∗ 16 – 70.8%
+0.7
16
17
 Richmond 3∗ 17 – 62.8%
+0.4
17
18
 Essendon 2∗ 18 – 64.4%
+0.5
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 7 6 1

138 44.3486 44.35 25.0715 25.07 75.8242 75.8%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 6 5 5 5 9 6 7 7 1

137 30.0699 30.07 25.3390 25.34 75.2747 75.3%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 8 1

136 45.4091 45.41 25.1341 25.13 74.7253 74.7%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 5 0

135 44.8260 44.83 25.7802 25.78 74.1758 74.2%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 6 0

135 43.2818 43.28 24.6496 24.65 74.1758 74.2%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 1

134 44.9161 44.92 25.2107 25.21 73.6264 73.6%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 9 6 8 6 1

134 44.5308 44.53 25.1969 25.20 73.6264 73.6%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 1

134 42.9874 42.99 25.1749 25.17 73.6264 73.6%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 1

134 40.5868 40.59 25.5648 25.56 73.6264 73.6%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 6 1

132 45.9004 45.90 25.6551 25.66 72.5275 72.5%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 5 8 6 8 7 1

132 43.8804 43.88 26.2582 26.26 72.5275 72.5%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 8 7 0

132 42.4914 42.49 25.7802 25.78 72.5275 72.5%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 7 6 5 5 8 6 8 7 0

132 40.4414 40.44 25.6745 25.67 72.5275 72.5%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 6 1

130 43.9861 43.99 25.6726 25.67 71.4286 71.4%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 1

130 42.5339 42.53 25.3948 25.39 71.4286 71.4%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5 6 5 6 6 8 6 8 6 0

129 42.5933 42.59 25.2509 25.25 70.8791 70.9%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 5 8 6 8 6 1

129 41.8459 41.85 25.3149 25.31 70.8791 70.9%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 4 1

129 39.6495 39.65 26.1830 26.18 70.8791 70.9%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 1

129 38.8927 38.89 25.3725 25.37 70.8791 70.9%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 8 6 7 6 1

129 32.9559 32.96 26.4033 26.40 †1 71.2707 71.3%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 8 5 7 7 0

128 39.8132 39.81 26.5623 26.56 †3 71.5084 71.5%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 6 1

128 39.7465 39.75 25.5890 25.59 70.3297 70.3%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 6 8 7 7 6 1

128 34.4447 34.44 25.8566 25.86 70.3297 70.3%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 5 4 6 5 7 6 7 7 0

125 40.8702 40.87 26.6692 26.67 68.6813 68.7%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 4 5 5 8 6 8 5 1

125 39.4788 39.48 25.9451 25.95 68.6813 68.7%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 6 1

125 38.9974 39.00 26.5989 26.60 68.6813 68.7%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5 5 6 6 5 8 6 8 7 1

125 36.6646 36.66 26.8352 26.84 68.6813 68.7%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 9 7 8 6 1

124 35.4984 35.50 26.1676 26.17 †9 71.6763 71.7%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4 5 4 5 5 7 6 7 6 1

124 33.6253 33.63 26.9568 26.96 68.1319 68.1%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 5 5 5 8 5 8 6 0

123 36.5781 36.58 25.9635 25.96 67.5824 67.6%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 8 6 1

113 38.0637 38.06 26.5064 26.51 †25 71.9745 72.0%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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