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Footy Forensics: Hawthorn to Western Bulldogs

Posted on June 1, 2017 by Max Barry

Don’t miss Part 2 of Matt Cowgill’s amazing graphgasm smorgasbord over at ESPN:

A deep dive into footy data turns up the graph that tells your team’s story so far in 2017. This week, we analyse Hawthorn through to the Western Bulldogs.

Source: Footy Forensics Your AFL club’s key game trend part II

CategoriesUncategorized TagsThe Arc

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Wins % Range
1
 Fremantle 18.6 138%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
2
 Sydney 17.5 138%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
3
 Hawthorn 15.1 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
4
 Geelong 14.9 125%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4
5
 Adelaide 14.0 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–7
6
 Brisbane Lions 13.1 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–9
7
 Melbourne 13.0 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–8
8
 Western Bulldogs 12.9 97%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–8
9
 Gold Coast 11.8 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–10
10
 GWS 11.4 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–10
11
 Collingwood 10.7 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
12
 St Kilda 10.3 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–13
13
 Carlton 10.1 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–14
14
 North Melbourne 9.4 87%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–15
15
 Port Adelaide 8.5 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14–15
16
 West Coast 7.1 73%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 Richmond 4.6 62%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18
18
 Essendon 3.7 71%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18

After 2 games of Round 14, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Fremantle 12∗ 1 – 147.9%
+6.6
1
2
 Sydney 11∗ 2 – 147.3%
+6.5
2
3
 Geelong 9 5 – 123.1%
+5.9
4
4
 Hawthorn 8∗ 4 1 113.2%
+6.6
3
5
 Adelaide 8∗ 5 – 112.4%
+6.0
5
6
 Melbourne 8∗ 5 – 102.3%
+5.0
7
7
 Western Bulldogs 8 6 – 90.7%
+4.9
8
8
 Gold Coast 7∗ 6 – 107.2%
+4.8
9
9
 Brisbane Lions 7∗ 6 – 106.2%
+6.1
6
10
 GWS 6∗ 6 – 103.2%
+5.4
10
11
 Collingwood 5∗ 7 1 99.2%
+5.2
11
12
 St Kilda 5∗ 8 – 101.9%
+5.3
12
13
 Carlton 5∗ 8 – 88.7%
+5.1
13
14
 North Melbourne 5∗ 7 – 87.7%
+4.4
14
15
 Port Adelaide 4∗ 8 – 101.4%
+4.5
15
16
 West Coast 4∗ 9 – 71.3%
+3.1
16
17
 Richmond 2∗ 10 – 60.4%
+2.6
17
18
 Essendon 1∗ 12 – 71.7%
+2.7
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4 1

88 26.8955 26.90 26.8619 26.86 75.8621 75.9%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 1

88 26.3920 26.39 26.0334 26.03 75.8621 75.9%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 1

87 18.3263 18.33 27.0772 27.08 75.0000 75.0%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4 1

84 26.6038 26.60 27.0356 27.04 72.4138 72.4%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4 1

84 22.5580 22.56 27.6961 27.70 72.4138 72.4%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 1

83 27.8152 27.82 26.6100 26.61 71.5517 71.6%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 1

83 26.0019 26.00 27.8190 27.82 71.5517 71.6%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4 1

83 25.9895 25.99 27.2257 27.23 71.5517 71.6%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4 1

83 25.3488 25.35 26.9661 26.97 71.5517 71.6%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4 1

83 20.5008 20.50 27.6293 27.63 71.5517 71.6%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4 1

82 26.4853 26.49 27.4231 27.42 70.6897 70.7%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5 1

82 24.3561 24.36 28.6121 28.61 70.6897 70.7%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 2

82 24.0450 24.05 27.2931 27.29 70.6897 70.7%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4 1

81 24.5980 24.60 27.7937 27.79 69.8276 69.8%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4 1

81 21.6101 21.61 28.8288 28.83 †1 70.4348 70.4%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 1

80 25.2877 25.29 28.1061 28.11 68.9655 69.0%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5 1

80 25.1366 25.14 27.1835 27.18 68.9655 69.0%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6 1

80 23.9865 23.99 27.3485 27.35 68.9655 69.0%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 1

80 21.5720 21.57 27.3466 27.35 68.9655 69.0%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5 1

79 25.5722 25.57 26.7843 26.78 68.1034 68.1%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 1

79 25.5051 25.51 28.0900 28.09 68.1034 68.1%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 1

79 24.2880 24.29 27.8362 27.84 68.1034 68.1%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4 2

79 22.3032 22.30 27.4491 27.45 68.1034 68.1%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4 1

79 20.1399 20.14 28.2253 28.23 68.1034 68.1%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 1

78 24.2823 24.28 27.4655 27.47 67.2414 67.2%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4 1

77 23.1872 23.19 29.0948 29.09 66.3793 66.4%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 1

77 19.9083 19.91 27.8345 27.83 66.3793 66.4%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 1

76 21.1331 21.13 27.5928 27.59 65.5172 65.5%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5 1

74 18.9549 18.95 28.1983 28.20 63.7931 63.8%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 1

74 18.9167 18.92 28.0748 28.07 †9 69.1589 69.2%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 1

62 19.9080 19.91 28.9835 28.98 †25 68.1319 68.1%

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