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Footy Forensics: Hawthorn to Western Bulldogs

Posted on June 1, 2017 by Max Barry

Don’t miss Part 2 of Matt Cowgill’s amazing graphgasm smorgasbord over at ESPN:

A deep dive into footy data turns up the graph that tells your team’s story so far in 2017. This week, we analyse Hawthorn through to the Western Bulldogs.

Source: Footy Forensics Your AFL club’s key game trend part II

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Wins % Range
1
 Western Bulldogs 15.4 125%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–4
2
 Brisbane Lions 14.4 122%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–8
3
 Gold Coast 14.3 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–9
4
 Geelong 13.8 116%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–7
5
 GWS 13.5 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–10
6
 Adelaide 13.4 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–10
7
 Hawthorn 13.3 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–10
8
 Collingwood 13.3 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–7
9
 Sydney 12.7 108%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–10
10
 Fremantle 12.4 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–10
11
 Melbourne 10.6 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–15
12
 St Kilda 10.1 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–14
13
 Port Adelaide 9.8 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–15
14
 Carlton 9.5 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–15
15
 North Melbourne 8.7 84%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–16
16
 Essendon 7.8 80%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14–17
17
 Richmond 7.4 76%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–18
18
 West Coast 6.7 73%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18

After Round 0, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Sydney 1 – – 191.3%
+11.7
9
2
 Gold Coast 1 – – 181.2%
+13.3
3
3
 GWS 1 – – 128.4%
+12.5
5
4
 Collingwood 1 – – 118.2%
+12.3
8
5
 Western Bulldogs 1 – – 104.7%
+14.4
1
6
 Brisbane Lions – 1 – 95.5%
+14.4
2
7
 St Kilda – 1 – 84.6%
+10.1
12
8
 Hawthorn – 1 – 77.9%
+13.3
7
9
 Geelong – 1 – 55.2%
+13.8
4
10
 Carlton – 1 – 52.3%
+9.5
14
11
 Adelaide –∗ – –
+13.4
6
12
 Essendon –∗ – –
+7.8
16
13
 Fremantle –∗ – –
+12.4
10
14
 Melbourne –∗ – –
+10.6
11
15
 North Melbourne –∗ – –
+8.7
15
16
 Port Adelaide –∗ – –
+9.8
13
17
 Richmond –∗ – –
+7.4
17
18
 West Coast –∗ – –
+6.7
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
HBin

4

4 0.5512 0.55 29.2800 29.28 80.0000 80.0%
AFLalytics

4

4 0.4215 0.42 28.7740 28.77 80.0000 80.0%
Holy Grail Ratings

4

4 0.2416 0.24 32.0700 32.07 80.0000 80.0%
Graft

3

3 0.7828 0.78 31.8000 31.80 60.0000 60.0%
What Snoo Thinks

3

3 0.7625 0.76 28.3340 28.33 60.0000 60.0%
Matter of Stats

3

3 0.4188 0.42 30.3260 30.33 60.0000 60.0%
Elo Predicts!

3

3 0.1959 0.20 32.8000 32.80 60.0000 60.0%
footycharts

3

3 0.1467 0.15 30.8780 30.88 60.0000 60.0%
AFL Scorigami

3

3 0.0736 0.07 32.0600 32.06 60.0000 60.0%
Cheap Stats

3

3 0.0669 0.07 29.8000 29.80 60.0000 60.0%
Glicko Ratings

3

3 0.0522 0.05 31.4860 31.49 60.0000 60.0%
Drop Kick Data

3

3 0.0335 0.03 30.8980 30.90 60.0000 60.0%
Hyperion

3

3 -0.1827 -0.18 30.8000 30.80 60.0000 60.0%
Wheelo Ratings

3

3 -0.6078 -0.61 34.5800 34.58 60.0000 60.0%
The Cruncher

2

2 0.3243 0.32 29.9180 29.92 40.0000 40.0%
Stattraction

2

2 0.2274 0.23 33.4520 33.45 40.0000 40.0%
The Wooden Finger

2

2 0.1510 0.15 33.2000 33.20 40.0000 40.0%
Aggregate

2

2 0.0787 0.08 31.5560 31.56 40.0000 40.0%
Don't Blame the Data

2

2 0.0578 0.06 33.9360 33.94 40.0000 40.0%
Live Ladders

2

2 0.0441 0.04 31.4000 31.40 40.0000 40.0%
PlusSixOne

2

2 0.0371 0.04 33.1400 33.14 40.0000 40.0%
s10

2

2 -0.0373 -0.04 31.6380 31.64 40.0000 40.0%
Massey Ratings

2

2 -0.0457 -0.05 32.3000 32.30 40.0000 40.0%
The Footycast

2

2 -0.0908 -0.09 36.6600 36.66 40.0000 40.0%
Informed Stats

2

2 -0.2825 -0.28 38.2000 38.20 40.0000 40.0%
Punters

2

2 -0.4076 -0.41 31.9520 31.95 40.0000 40.0%
AFL Lab

2

2 -0.5069 -0.51 36.7860 36.79 40.0000 40.0%
In The Game

2

2 -0.6548 -0.65 33.0320 33.03 40.0000 40.0%
ZaphBot

2

2 -0.9323 -0.93 42.2000 42.20 40.0000 40.0%
Squiggle

1

1 -0.3633 -0.36 34.6840 34.68 20.0000 20.0%
Winnable

1

1 -1.0017 -1.00 36.9340 36.93 20.0000 20.0%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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