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Footy Forensics: Hawthorn to Western Bulldogs

Posted on June 1, 2017 by Max Barry

Don’t miss Part 2 of Matt Cowgill’s amazing graphgasm smorgasbord over at ESPN:

A deep dive into footy data turns up the graph that tells your team’s story so far in 2017. This week, we analyse Hawthorn through to the Western Bulldogs.

Source: Footy Forensics Your AFL club’s key game trend part II

CategoriesUncategorized TagsThe Arc

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Wins % Range
1
 Fremantle 19.0 137%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Sydney 17.8 136%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Hawthorn 15.6 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
4
 Geelong 14.6 126%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–5
5
 Adelaide 14.2 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–5
6
 Brisbane Lions 13.2 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–8
7
 Melbourne 13.3 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–8
8
 Western Bulldogs 12.6 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–8
9
 Gold Coast 11.2 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–12
10
 St Kilda 10.9 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–13
11
 GWS 10.9 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–12
12
 Collingwood 10.7 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–12
13
 Carlton 10.2 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
14
 North Melbourne 10.0 87%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–14
15
 Port Adelaide 8.2 97%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 West Coast 6.6 73%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 Richmond 4.5 63%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
18
 Essendon 3.4 71%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 2 games of Round 15, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Fremantle 13∗ 1 – 144.4%
+6.0
1
2
 Sydney 12∗ 2 – 143.7%
+5.8
2
3
 Hawthorn 9∗ 4 1 113.5%
+6.1
3
4
 Geelong 9 6 – 120.6%
+5.6
4
5
 Melbourne 9∗ 5 – 105.7%
+4.3
7
6
 Adelaide 8∗ 5 – 112.4%
+6.2
5
7
 Brisbane Lions 8∗ 6 – 108.4%
+5.2
6
8
 Western Bulldogs 8∗ 6 – 90.7%
+4.6
8
9
 Gold Coast 7∗ 7 – 105.3%
+4.2
9
10
 St Kilda 6∗ 8 – 102.4%
+4.9
10
11
 GWS 6∗ 7 – 102.3%
+4.9
11
12
 North Melbourne 6∗ 7 – 88.5%
+4.0
14
13
 Collingwood 5∗ 7 1 99.2%
+5.2
12
14
 Carlton 5∗ 8 – 88.7%
+5.2
13
15
 Port Adelaide 4∗ 9 – 101.0%
+4.2
15
16
 West Coast 4∗ 10 – 72.7%
+2.6
16
17
 Richmond 2∗ 11 – 61.1%
+2.5
17
18
 Essendon 1∗ 13 – 70.4%
+2.4
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4 6 2

95 29.9967 30.00 25.7828 25.78 77.2358 77.2%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 2

94 29.5515 29.55 25.2515 25.25 76.4228 76.4%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 6 2

94 20.1226 20.12 25.9565 25.96 76.4228 76.4%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4 6 2

91 29.7580 29.76 26.0780 26.08 73.9837 74.0%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 6 2

90 31.0039 31.00 25.7583 25.76 73.1707 73.2%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 2

90 29.2048 29.20 26.7317 26.73 73.1707 73.2%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4 6 2

90 28.8816 28.88 26.2347 26.23 73.1707 73.2%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 2

90 28.1922 28.19 25.9961 26.00 73.1707 73.2%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4 5 2

90 25.5077 25.51 26.8124 26.81 73.1707 73.2%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4 6 2

89 30.0990 30.10 26.4201 26.42 72.3577 72.4%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5 6 2

89 28.0607 28.06 27.8618 27.86 72.3577 72.4%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 7 2

89 26.7666 26.77 26.2013 26.20 72.3577 72.4%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4 6 2

88 27.5293 27.53 26.6924 26.69 71.5447 71.5%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 6 2

87 28.4520 28.45 27.0827 27.08 70.7317 70.7%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 2

87 24.7725 24.77 28.0360 28.04 †1 71.3115 71.3%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4 5

87 22.0907 22.09 26.9587 26.96 †2 71.9008 71.9%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5 6 2

86 28.3858 28.39 25.7241 25.72 69.9187 69.9%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5 5 2

86 27.8712 27.87 26.1852 26.19 69.9187 69.9%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6 5 2

86 26.6067 26.61 26.4134 26.41 69.9187 69.9%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 5 2

86 24.6938 24.69 26.3341 26.33 69.9187 69.9%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 2

85 27.2513 27.25 27.1057 27.11 69.1057 69.1%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 5 1

84 28.5448 28.54 27.6210 27.62 68.2927 68.3%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 1

84 26.3687 26.37 26.4228 26.42 68.2927 68.3%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4 5 2

84 24.3387 24.34 26.3423 26.34 68.2927 68.3%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4 5 1

84 22.8702 22.87 27.3751 27.38 68.2927 68.3%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 6 2

84 22.0594 22.06 26.7130 26.71 68.2927 68.3%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 2

83 23.9694 23.97 26.6280 26.63 67.4797 67.5%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4 5 1

82 24.9769 24.98 27.9350 27.93 66.6667 66.7%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5 5 2

80 20.8346 20.83 27.3902 27.39 65.0407 65.0%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 5 1

79 21.7854 21.79 27.2456 27.25 †9 69.2982 69.3%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 2

69 23.0999 23.10 27.6327 27.63 †25 70.4082 70.4%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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