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Footy Forensics: Hawthorn to Western Bulldogs

Posted on June 1, 2017 by Max Barry

Don’t miss Part 2 of Matt Cowgill’s amazing graphgasm smorgasbord over at ESPN:

A deep dive into footy data turns up the graph that tells your team’s story so far in 2017. This week, we analyse Hawthorn through to the Western Bulldogs.

Source: Footy Forensics Your AFL club’s key game trend part II

CategoriesUncategorized TagsThe Arc

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Wins % Range
1
 Fremantle 19.1 140%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Sydney 16.3 128%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Hawthorn 15.6 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
4
 Adelaide 15.1 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–5
5
 Brisbane Lions 14.8 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–5
6
 Melbourne 14.1 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–7
7
 Geelong 13.5 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–8
8
 Western Bulldogs 12.9 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–8
9
 Collingwood 12.3 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9
10
 GWS 11.5 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–11
11
 St Kilda 11.1 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–13
12
 Carlton 10.7 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
13
 North Melbourne 10.0 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–14
14
 Gold Coast 9.5 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
15
 Port Adelaide 8.8 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 West Coast 5.8 73%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 Richmond 3.4 63%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
18
 Essendon 2.3 66%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 2 games of Round 19, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Fremantle 15∗ 2 – 142.3%
+4.1
1
2
 Sydney 13 5 – 128.3%
+3.3
2
3
 Adelaide 12 6 – 117.2%
+3.1
4
4
 Hawthorn 11∗ 5 1 114.2%
+4.1
3
5
 Brisbane Lions 11∗ 6 – 117.1%
+3.8
5
6
 Melbourne 11∗ 6 – 109.0%
+3.1
6
7
 Geelong 10 8 – 116.2%
+3.5
7
8
 Western Bulldogs 10∗ 7 – 92.3%
+2.9
8
9
 Collingwood 9∗ 7 1 104.5%
+2.8
9
10
 St Kilda 8 10 – 104.0%
+3.1
11
11
 GWS 8∗ 9 – 101.6%
+3.5
10
12
 Carlton 8∗ 9 – 91.9%
+2.7
12
13
 North Melbourne 8∗ 9 – 91.4%
+2.0
13
14
 Gold Coast 7∗ 10 – 95.6%
+2.5
14
15
 Port Adelaide 6∗ 11 – 101.3%
+2.8
15
16
 West Coast 4∗ 13 – 72.0%
+1.8
16
17
 Richmond 2∗ 15 – 63.0%
+1.4
17
18
 Essendon 1∗ 16 – 66.6%
+1.3
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 1

118 37.5646 37.56 25.1717 25.17 76.1290 76.1%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 6 5 5 5 9 1

117 25.6665 25.67 25.3644 25.36 75.4839 75.5%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 6 6 6 8 2

116 39.1376 39.14 25.7613 25.76 74.8387 74.8%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 8 1

116 36.3718 36.37 24.8512 24.85 74.8387 74.8%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 1

114 38.3419 38.34 25.3638 25.36 73.5484 73.5%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 9 1

114 37.2960 37.30 25.4731 25.47 73.5484 73.5%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 1

113 38.6260 38.63 25.2753 25.28 72.9032 72.9%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 1

113 36.4077 36.41 25.3430 25.34 72.9032 72.9%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 5 8 1

113 33.2403 33.24 25.9845 25.98 72.9032 72.9%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 1

112 39.4601 39.46 25.7292 25.73 72.2581 72.3%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 7 6 5 5 8 1

112 33.8896 33.89 25.7528 25.75 72.2581 72.3%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 5 8 1

111 36.8491 36.85 26.7032 26.70 71.6129 71.6%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 1

111 35.9154 35.92 26.0746 26.07 71.6129 71.6%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 2

111 35.7956 35.80 26.1419 26.14 71.6129 71.6%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 6 5 6 5 8 1

110 36.8834 36.88 26.1295 26.13 70.9677 71.0%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5 6 5 6 6 8 1

110 36.0002 36.00 25.2845 25.28 70.9677 71.0%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 1

110 32.0904 32.09 25.7200 25.72 70.9677 71.0%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 8 1

110 27.5367 27.54 26.4156 26.42 †1 71.4286 71.4%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5 5 5 6 5 8 1

109 36.3809 36.38 25.3946 25.39 70.3226 70.3%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 5 8 1

109 34.6794 34.68 25.6491 25.65 70.3226 70.3%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 8 0

109 31.5531 31.55 27.2181 27.22 †2 71.2418 71.2%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 6 8 1

108 29.0757 29.08 25.8581 25.86 69.6774 69.7%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4 5 5 5 6 8 1

107 31.9187 31.92 25.7477 25.75 69.0323 69.0%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 5 4 6 5 7 1

106 34.8310 34.83 26.9115 26.91 68.3871 68.4%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 4 5 5 8 1

106 34.3728 34.37 25.8516 25.85 68.3871 68.4%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4 5 5 5 5 8 1

105 33.2306 33.23 27.0645 27.06 67.7419 67.7%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 5 5 5 8 1

105 31.3053 31.31 26.0568 26.06 67.7419 67.7%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4 5 4 5 5 7 1

105 28.9373 28.94 26.8203 26.82 67.7419 67.7%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5 5 6 6 5 8 1

104 29.7792 29.78 27.1548 27.15 67.0968 67.1%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 9 1

103 30.1368 30.14 26.5205 26.52 †9 70.5479 70.5%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 1

92 32.4276 32.43 26.7462 26.75 †25 70.7692 70.8%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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