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Footy Forensics: Hawthorn to Western Bulldogs

Posted on June 1, 2017 by Max Barry

Don’t miss Part 2 of Matt Cowgill’s amazing graphgasm smorgasbord over at ESPN:

A deep dive into footy data turns up the graph that tells your team’s story so far in 2017. This week, we analyse Hawthorn through to the Western Bulldogs.

Source: Footy Forensics Your AFL club’s key game trend part II

CategoriesUncategorized TagsThe Arc

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Wins % Range
1
 Western Bulldogs 16.6 130%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
2
 Hawthorn 15.1 124%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–7
3
 Gold Coast 15.1 124%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–6
4
 Geelong 14.8 116%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–6
5
 Brisbane Lions 13.8 117%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–8
6
 Fremantle 13.8 117%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–7
7
 Adelaide 13.3 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–10
8
 Sydney 13.2 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–11
9
 Collingwood 13.1 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–9
10
 GWS 11.3 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–12
11
 Melbourne 11.2 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–13
12
 St Kilda 10.0 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–16
13
 North Melbourne 8.9 85%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–15
14
 Port Adelaide 8.6 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–15
15
 Carlton 8.7 84%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–16
16
 West Coast 8.4 79%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–16
17
 Richmond 5.5 70%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18
18
 Essendon 5.5 71%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18

After Round 3, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Gold Coast 3∗ – – 191.0%
+12.1
3
2
 Western Bulldogs 3∗ – – 137.2%
+13.6
1
3
 Fremantle 2∗ 1 – 143.9%
+11.8
6
4
 Sydney 2∗ 1 – 139.5%
+11.2
8
5
 Hawthorn 2∗ 1 – 118.1%
+13.1
2
6
 North Melbourne 2∗ 1 – 116.6%
+6.9
13
7
 Collingwood 2∗ 1 – 114.6%
+11.1
9
8
 Melbourne 2∗ 1 – 96.0%
+9.2
11
9
 West Coast 2∗ 1 – 87.3%
+6.4
16
10
 Geelong 2∗ 1 – 86.7%
+12.8
4
11
 Port Adelaide 1∗ 2 – 105.5%
+7.6
14
12
 Adelaide 1∗ 2 – 100.0%
+12.3
7
13
 Brisbane Lions 1∗ 2 – 94.6%
+12.8
5
14
 St Kilda 1 3 – 86.0%
+9.0
12
15
 GWS 1 3 – 76.9%
+10.3
10
16
 Carlton 1∗ 2 – 72.9%
+7.7
15
17
 Essendon –∗ 3 – 61.8%
+5.5
18
18
 Richmond –∗ 3 – 56.9%
+5.5
17

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6

23 4.1697 4.17 25.0493 25.05 82.1429 82.1%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6

22 6.6013 6.60 23.6275 23.63 78.5714 78.6%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6

22 6.1920 6.19 23.3179 23.32 78.5714 78.6%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6

21 7.1933 7.19 23.7554 23.76 75.0000 75.0%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5

21 6.2387 6.24 24.4121 24.41 75.0000 75.0%
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6

21 6.0850 6.08 25.4607 25.46 75.0000 75.0%
footycharts

3 7 5 6

21 5.4688 5.47 24.3114 24.31 75.0000 75.0%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6

21 5.4109 5.41 23.5714 23.57 75.0000 75.0%
HBin

4 7 5 5

21 4.4582 4.46 25.8643 25.86 75.0000 75.0%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5

20 6.6122 6.61 24.8136 24.81 71.4286 71.4%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6

20 6.5918 6.59 24.3096 24.31 71.4286 71.4%
s10

2 8 5 5

20 6.5138 6.51 24.3104 24.31 71.4286 71.4%
Graft

3 7 4 6

20 5.5894 5.59 24.3214 24.32 71.4286 71.4%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6

20 5.4726 5.47 24.4879 24.49 71.4286 71.4%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6

20 4.7221 4.72 26.8929 26.89 71.4286 71.4%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5

20 4.7110 4.71 25.5943 25.59 71.4286 71.4%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5

19 6.9894 6.99 24.7729 24.77 67.8571 67.9%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6

19 5.3229 5.32 24.4479 24.45 67.8571 67.9%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6

19 4.3223 4.32 26.9814 26.98 67.8571 67.9%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5

19 4.3022 4.30 26.6429 26.64 67.8571 67.9%
Punters

2 6 4 6

18 5.3755 5.38 24.5643 24.56 64.2857 64.3%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5

18 5.3686 5.37 24.6943 24.69 64.2857 64.3%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5

18 5.1682 5.17 25.2500 25.25 64.2857 64.3%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5

18 3.8191 3.82 27.2786 27.28 64.2857 64.3%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5

18 2.7010 2.70 27.2250 27.23 64.2857 64.3%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7

18 1.7978 1.80 29.7500 29.75 64.2857 64.3%
Winnable

1 7 4 5

17 5.5298 5.53 25.6561 25.66 60.7143 60.7%
In The Game

2 6 4 5

17 3.9657 3.97 26.1207 26.12 60.7143 60.7%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4

17 3.0723 3.07 27.5000 27.50 60.7143 60.7%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5

17 0.6310 0.63 27.4286 27.43 60.7143 60.7%
Massey Ratings

2 4

6 1.1606 1.16 35.5833 35.58 †16 50.0000 50.0%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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