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Footy Forensics: Hawthorn to Western Bulldogs

Posted on June 1, 2017 by Max Barry

Don’t miss Part 2 of Matt Cowgill’s amazing graphgasm smorgasbord over at ESPN:

A deep dive into footy data turns up the graph that tells your team’s story so far in 2017. This week, we analyse Hawthorn through to the Western Bulldogs.

Source: Footy Forensics Your AFL club’s key game trend part II

CategoriesUncategorized TagsThe Arc

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Wins % Range
1
 Fremantle 19.5 142%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Sydney 17.7 139%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Hawthorn 15.8 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
4
 Brisbane Lions 15.3 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4
5
 Melbourne 15.2 108%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–6
6
 Geelong 14.5 124%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–7
7
 Adelaide 14.7 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–7
8
 Collingwood 13.4 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8
9
 Western Bulldogs 12.8 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9
10
 Carlton 12.0 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
11
 St Kilda 10.9 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11
12
 GWS 10.2 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12
13
 North Melbourne 9.6 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13
14
 Gold Coast 8.6 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14
15
 Port Adelaide 7.2 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 West Coast 4.4 71%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 Richmond 3.2 62%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
18
 Essendon 2.4 63%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 1 game of Round 23, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Fremantle 19 3 – 142.5%
+0.5
1
2
 Sydney 16∗ 5 – 134.0%
+1.7
2
3
 Hawthorn 14∗ 6 1 118.2%
+1.3
3
4
 Brisbane Lions 14∗ 7 – 117.8%
+1.3
4
5
 Adelaide 14 8 – 115.1%
+0.7
7
6
 Melbourne 14∗ 7 – 107.6%
+1.2
5
7
 Geelong 13∗ 8 – 120.6%
+1.5
6
8
 Collingwood 12∗ 8 1 106.4%
+0.9
8
9
 Western Bulldogs 12∗ 9 – 93.9%
+0.8
9
10
 Carlton 11∗ 10 – 99.6%
+1.0
10
11
 St Kilda 9∗ 12 – 101.6%
+1.9
11
12
 GWS 9∗ 12 – 98.9%
+1.2
12
13
 North Melbourne 9∗ 12 – 90.9%
+0.6
13
14
 Gold Coast 8∗ 13 – 95.0%
+0.6
14
15
 Port Adelaide 6∗ 15 – 90.2%
+1.2
15
16
 West Coast 4∗ 17 – 71.5%
+0.4
16
17
 Richmond 3∗ 18 – 63.5%
+0.2
17
18
 Essendon 2∗ 19 – 63.2%
+0.4
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 7 6 6 2

145 47.4297 47.43 25.0502 25.05 75.9162 75.9%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 6 5 5 5 9 6 7 7 6 2

144 32.2920 32.29 25.3929 25.39 75.3927 75.4%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 8 5 2

142 48.9327 48.93 25.0694 25.07 74.3455 74.3%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 7 2

142 44.4673 44.47 25.4409 25.44 74.3455 74.3%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 6 2

141 48.0258 48.03 25.1401 25.14 73.8220 73.8%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 5 4 2

141 46.9854 46.99 25.9476 25.95 73.8220 73.8%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 6 4 2

141 46.6667 46.67 24.6125 24.61 73.8220 73.8%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 9 6 8 6 5 2

140 48.1948 48.19 25.0821 25.08 73.2984 73.3%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 5 2

140 46.3654 46.37 25.1181 25.12 73.2984 73.3%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 7 6 5 5 8 6 8 7 6 2

140 44.7601 44.76 25.4995 25.50 73.2984 73.3%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 8 7 5 2

139 45.5786 45.58 25.6859 25.69 72.7749 72.8%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 6 5 2

138 49.5768 49.58 25.6112 25.61 72.2513 72.3%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 5 8 6 8 7 5 2

138 47.1455 47.15 26.1990 26.20 72.2513 72.3%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 6 5 2

136 47.4398 47.44 25.6421 25.64 71.2042 71.2%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 5 2

136 45.9191 45.92 25.4358 25.44 71.2042 71.2%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 4 6 2

136 43.5732 43.57 26.0685 26.07 71.2042 71.2%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 2

136 42.2832 42.28 25.3885 25.39 71.2042 71.2%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 8 6 7 6 6 2

136 35.5941 35.59 26.3789 26.38 †1 71.5789 71.6%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5 6 5 6 6 8 6 8 6 4 2

135 46.0830 46.08 25.2011 25.20 70.6806 70.7%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 5 8 6 8 6 5 2

135 45.3848 45.38 25.2376 25.24 70.6806 70.7%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 6 6 2

135 43.0995 43.10 25.4555 25.46 70.6806 70.7%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 6 8 7 7 6 6 2

135 37.6513 37.65 25.7958 25.80 70.6806 70.7%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 8 5 7 7 4 2

134 44.0623 44.06 26.3630 26.36 †3 71.2766 71.3%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 4 5 5 8 6 8 5 6 2

132 42.4626 42.46 25.9529 25.95 69.1099 69.1%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 6 6 2

132 42.2036 42.20 26.5497 26.55 69.1099 69.1%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5 5 6 6 5 8 6 8 7 6 2

132 40.5777 40.58 26.9162 26.92 69.1099 69.1%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 5 4 6 5 7 6 7 7 4 2

131 44.4194 44.42 26.5186 26.52 68.5864 68.6%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 9 7 8 6 6 2

131 38.4995 38.50 26.2582 26.26 †9 71.9780 72.0%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4 5 4 5 5 7 6 7 6 5 2

130 36.1505 36.15 27.0112 27.01 68.0628 68.1%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 5 5 5 8 5 8 6 4 2

129 38.9247 38.92 26.1092 26.11 67.5393 67.5%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 8 6 5 2

119 41.2204 41.22 26.5000 26.50 †25 71.6867 71.7%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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