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Footy Forensics: Hawthorn to Western Bulldogs

Posted on June 1, 2017 by Max Barry

Don’t miss Part 2 of Matt Cowgill’s amazing graphgasm smorgasbord over at ESPN:

A deep dive into footy data turns up the graph that tells your team’s story so far in 2017. This week, we analyse Hawthorn through to the Western Bulldogs.

Source: Footy Forensics Your AFL club’s key game trend part II

CategoriesUncategorized TagsThe Arc

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Wins % Range
1
 Fremantle 17.8 126%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
2
 Sydney 17.3 141%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
3
 Hawthorn 15.2 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
4
 Geelong 14.8 125%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4
5
 Adelaide 13.3 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–6
6
 Western Bulldogs 13.2 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–8
7
 Gold Coast 12.8 108%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–8
8
 Brisbane Lions 12.2 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–9
9
 Melbourne 12.3 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–10
10
 GWS 11.4 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–11
11
 Collingwood 11.3 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–11
12
 St Kilda 10.5 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–13
13
 North Melbourne 10.2 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–14
14
 Carlton 10.0 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–14
15
 Port Adelaide 8.2 97%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–16
16
 West Coast 7.7 73%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–16
17
 Richmond 4.8 63%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18
18
 Essendon 4.1 71%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18

After 2 games of Round 13, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Fremantle 11∗ 1 – 135.2%
+6.8
1
2
 Sydney 10∗ 2 – 152.4%
+7.3
2
3
 Hawthorn 8 4 1 113.2%
+6.7
3
4
 Geelong 8 5 – 120.2%
+6.8
4
5
 Western Bulldogs 8 5 – 94.6%
+5.2
6
6
 Gold Coast 7∗ 4 – 116.9%
+5.8
7
7
 Adelaide 7∗ 5 – 107.4%
+6.3
5
8
 Melbourne 7∗ 5 – 101.8%
+5.3
9
9
 Brisbane Lions 6∗ 6 – 103.9%
+6.2
8
10
 GWS 6∗ 6 – 103.2%
+5.4
10
11
 Collingwood 5∗ 6 1 99.9%
+5.8
11
12
 St Kilda 5∗ 7 – 102.3%
+5.5
12
13
 North Melbourne 5∗ 6 – 97.6%
+5.2
13
14
 Carlton 4∗ 8 – 87.5%
+6.0
14
15
 West Coast 4∗ 8 – 70.0%
+3.7
16
16
 Port Adelaide 3∗ 8 – 100.9%
+5.2
15
17
 Richmond 2∗ 10 – 60.4%
+2.8
17
18
 Essendon 1∗ 11 – 70.5%
+3.1
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 0

83 25.3877 25.39 26.0678 26.07 76.8519 76.9%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 0

83 24.2196 24.22 25.2291 25.23 76.8519 76.9%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 0

80 16.5581 16.56 26.3868 26.39 74.0741 74.1%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 0

79 24.5236 24.52 26.3208 26.32 73.1481 73.1%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 0

79 21.3551 21.36 26.9383 26.94 73.1481 73.1%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 0

78 25.7164 25.72 25.9120 25.91 72.2222 72.2%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 0

78 24.3471 24.35 26.5395 26.54 72.2222 72.2%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 0

78 23.0871 23.09 26.3074 26.31 72.2222 72.2%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 0

78 23.0160 23.02 27.2315 27.23 72.2222 72.2%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 0

78 18.9161 18.92 26.8333 26.83 72.2222 72.2%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 0

77 24.4765 24.48 26.7650 26.77 71.2963 71.3%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 0

76 22.2263 22.23 27.1488 27.15 70.3704 70.4%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 0

76 21.3183 21.32 28.1019 28.10 70.3704 70.4%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 0

76 21.2044 21.20 26.6909 26.69 70.3704 70.4%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 0

76 20.2184 20.22 28.0152 28.02 †1 71.0280 71.0%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 0

75 22.9524 22.95 27.4056 27.41 69.4444 69.4%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 1

75 22.3958 22.40 26.7532 26.75 69.4444 69.4%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 1

75 19.5422 19.54 26.8074 26.81 69.4444 69.4%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 0

74 23.0258 23.03 27.3595 27.36 68.5185 68.5%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 1

74 21.9590 21.96 27.2222 27.22 68.5185 68.5%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 0

74 18.5472 18.55 27.5013 27.50 68.5185 68.5%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 0

73 23.2693 23.27 26.1832 26.18 67.5926 67.6%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 0

73 22.4820 22.48 26.7778 26.78 67.5926 67.6%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 0

73 21.1756 21.18 26.8908 26.89 67.5926 67.6%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 0

73 18.8079 18.81 26.7333 26.73 67.5926 67.6%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 0

72 20.8902 20.89 28.6852 28.69 66.6667 66.7%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 0

72 17.7454 17.75 27.3657 27.37 66.6667 66.7%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 0

71 19.1409 19.14 27.1641 27.16 65.7407 65.7%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 1

69 17.6777 17.68 27.3232 27.32 †9 69.6970 69.7%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 0

68 16.4222 16.42 27.8333 27.83 62.9630 63.0%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 0

57 17.4390 17.44 28.3916 28.39 †25 68.6747 68.7%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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