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Footy Forensics: Hawthorn to Western Bulldogs

Posted on June 1, 2017 by Max Barry

Don’t miss Part 2 of Matt Cowgill’s amazing graphgasm smorgasbord over at ESPN:

A deep dive into footy data turns up the graph that tells your team’s story so far in 2017. This week, we analyse Hawthorn through to the Western Bulldogs.

Source: Footy Forensics Your AFL club’s key game trend part II

CategoriesUncategorized TagsThe Arc

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Wins % Range
1
Fremantle 19.0 138%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1
2
Sydney 18.0 137%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2
3
Brisbane Lions 16.0 122%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3–4
4
Hawthorn 16.0 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3–4
5
Geelong 15.0 123%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5–6
6
Adelaide 15.0 117%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5–7
7
Melbourne 15.0 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5–7
8
Western Bulldogs 13.5 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
8–9
9
Collingwood 13.0 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
8–9
10
Carlton 12.5 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
10
11
St Kilda 10.0 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
11–12
12
GWS 10.0 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
11–12
13
Gold Coast 9.0 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
13–14
14
North Melbourne 9.0 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
13–14
15
Port Adelaide 7.0 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15
16
West Coast 4.0 69%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16
17
Richmond 3.0 62%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17
18
Essendon 2.0 64%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18

After Round 24, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
Fremantle 19 4 – 137.2%
+0.0
1
2
Sydney 18 5 – 136.1%
+-0.0
2
3
Brisbane Lions 16 7 – 121.7%
+-0.0
3
4
Hawthorn 15 6 2 120.1%
+0.0
4
5
Geelong 15 8 – 122.3%
+-0.0
5
6
Adelaide 15 8 – 117.3%
+-0.0
6
7
Melbourne 15 8 – 109.6%
+0.0
7
8
Western Bulldogs 13 9 1 95.4%
+-0.0
8
9
Collingwood 12 9 2 102.4%
+0.0
9
10
Carlton 12 10 1 101.5%
+-0.0
10
11
St Kilda 10 13 – 102.8%
+0.0
11
12
GWS 10 13 – 98.9%
+0.0
12
13
Gold Coast 9 14 – 94.5%
+-0.0
13
14
North Melbourne 9 14 – 88.8%
+0.0
14
15
Port Adelaide 7 16 – 88.0%
+-0.0
15
16
West Coast 4 19 – 69.2%
+0.0
16
17
Richmond 3 20 – 62.5%
+0.0
17
18
Essendon 2 21 – 64.6%
+0.0
18

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 7 6 6 9 5 0

157 51.0716 51.07 25.2008 25.20 75.4808 75.5%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 6 5 5 5 9 6 7 7 6 9 6 0

157 35.1323 35.13 25.3817 25.38 75.4808 75.5%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 8 5 9 6 0

155 53.7257 53.73 25.0011 25.00 74.5192 74.5%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 6 9 6 1

155 52.7385 52.74 25.1464 25.15 74.5192 74.5%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 5 4 9 6 0

154 51.5292 51.53 25.9327 25.93 74.0385 74.0%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 6 4 9 6 0

154 51.0380 51.04 24.7227 24.72 74.0385 74.0%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 7 9 5 0

154 48.5097 48.51 25.4419 25.44 74.0385 74.0%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 5 9 6 0

153 51.0782 51.08 25.0537 25.05 73.5577 73.6%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 7 6 5 5 8 6 8 7 6 9 6

153 48.8410 48.84 25.6301 25.63 †1 73.9130 73.9%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 9 6 8 6 5 9 5 0

152 52.6125 52.61 24.8596 24.86 73.0769 73.1%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 8 7 5 9 6 0

152 49.8889 49.89 25.7981 25.80 73.0769 73.1%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 6 5 9 6 0

151 54.5821 54.58 25.5441 25.54 72.5962 72.6%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 5 8 6 8 7 5 9 6 0

151 52.3147 52.31 26.1875 26.19 72.5962 72.6%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 6 5 9 6 0

149 52.4577 52.46 25.6600 25.66 71.6346 71.6%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 6 6 9 7 0

149 48.0401 48.04 25.3798 25.38 71.6346 71.6%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 4 6 8 6 1

149 46.8412 46.84 26.0907 26.09 71.6346 71.6%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 8 6 7 6 6 9 6 0

149 39.9592 39.96 26.3140 26.31 †1 71.9807 72.0%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 5 8 6 8 6 5 9 6 0

148 50.3802 50.38 25.3251 25.33 71.1538 71.2%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5 6 5 6 6 8 6 8 6 4 9 6 0

148 50.0217 50.02 25.2696 25.27 71.1538 71.2%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 5 9 5 0

148 49.8924 49.89 25.4829 25.48 71.1538 71.2%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 9 5 0

148 46.8873 46.89 24.9875 24.99 71.1538 71.2%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 6 8 7 7 6 6 9 6 0

148 41.3337 41.33 25.7106 25.71 71.1538 71.2%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 8 5 7 7 4 9 6 0

147 49.8561 49.86 26.0970 26.10 †4 72.0588 72.1%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 5 4 6 5 7 6 7 7 4 9 6 1

145 48.8452 48.85 26.4482 26.45 69.7115 69.7%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 6 6 9 5 1

145 46.4599 46.46 26.3894 26.39 69.7115 69.7%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 4 5 5 8 6 8 5 6 9 5 1

145 46.3024 46.30 25.8942 25.89 69.7115 69.7%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 9 7 8 6 6 9 6 1

145 43.9948 43.99 25.9648 25.96 †9 72.8643 72.9%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5 5 6 6 5 8 6 8 7 6 9 5 0

144 46.2598 46.26 26.6635 26.66 69.2308 69.2%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4 5 4 5 5 7 6 7 6 5 9 6 0

143 40.9567 40.96 26.8901 26.89 68.7500 68.8%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 5 5 5 8 5 8 6 4 8 6 0

141 42.9634 42.96 26.1543 26.15 67.7885 67.8%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 8 6 5 9 6 1

133 46.6483 46.65 26.3087 26.31 †25 72.6776 72.7%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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