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Footy Forensics: Hawthorn to Western Bulldogs

Posted on June 1, 2017 by Max Barry

Don’t miss Part 2 of Matt Cowgill’s amazing graphgasm smorgasbord over at ESPN:

A deep dive into footy data turns up the graph that tells your team’s story so far in 2017. This week, we analyse Hawthorn through to the Western Bulldogs.

Source: Footy Forensics Your AFL club’s key game trend part II

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Wins % Range
1
 Adelaide 17.8 142%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Geelong 16.5 141%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Brisbane Lions 16.0 114%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–5
4
 Collingwood 15.8 122%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
5
 Gold Coast 15.6 124%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–7
6
 Hawthorn 15.3 121%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–8
7
 GWS 15.6 116%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–9
8
 Western Bulldogs 14.8 139%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–9
9
 Fremantle 15.3 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–9
10
 Sydney 12.1 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
11
 St Kilda 9.2 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
12
 Carlton 8.6 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
13
 Port Adelaide 8.4 79%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13
14
 Melbourne 7.4 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14
15
 Essendon 6.6 72%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 Richmond 5.6 67%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
17
 North Melbourne 5.2 73%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
18
 West Coast 1.3 62%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 6 games of Round 23, 2025.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Adelaide 17 5 – 141.0%
+0.8
1
2
 Brisbane Lions 15 6 1 114.3%
+0.5
3
3
 Geelong 15∗ 6 – 139.8%
+1.5
2
4
 Collingwood 15 7 – 123.1%
+0.8
4
5
 Hawthorn 15 7 – 122.7%
+0.3
6
6
 GWS 15 7 – 115.5%
+0.6
7
7
 Fremantle 15 7 – 108.6%
+0.3
9
8
 Gold Coast 14∗ 7 – 121.2%
+1.6
5
9
 Western Bulldogs 13∗ 8 – 135.4%
+1.8
8
10
 Sydney 11∗ 10 – 95.3%
+1.1
10
11
 St Kilda 9 13 – 88.5%
+0.2
11
12
 Carlton 8 14 – 94.7%
+0.6
12
13
 Port Adelaide 8 14 – 79.0%
+0.4
13
14
 Melbourne 7 15 – 93.4%
+0.4
14
15
 Essendon 6∗ 15 – 72.3%
+0.6
15
16
 Richmond 5∗ 16 – 66.3%
+0.6
16
17
 North Melbourne 4∗ 16 1 72.5%
+0.7
17
18
 West Coast 1∗ 20 – 63.0%
+0.3
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 8 7 7 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 6 9 6 5 7 8 7 4

147 45.96 26.16 75.8%
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 7 7 8 5 7 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 7 9 5 7 7 8 8 5

147 43.59 25.88 75.8%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 8 7 8 5 7 6 8 5 6 5 5 6 4 7 9 5 6 7 8 8 4

146 42.29 26.74 75.3%
Punters

1 8 5 7 7 6 4 7 6 7 6 7 5 6 6 4 7 9 5 6 7 8 7 4

145 47.23 25.99 74.7%
Aggregate

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 3 7 9 5 6 7 8 7 4

145 44.05 26.04 74.7%
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 8 6 6 4 6 4 4 6 9 6 6 7 8 7 4

145 43.83 25.85 74.7%
AFL Lab

2 8 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 5 5 6 6 4 7 8 6 6 7 8 6 4

145 38.04 26.62 74.7%
Winnable

1 8 6 6 7 7 4 9 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 6 9 5 6 7 8 7 4

144 44.43 26.11 74.2%
s10

2 8 5 7 7 6 5 7 7 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 9 5 6 7 8 7 4

144 43.72 25.92 74.2%
ZaphBot

1 8 6 7 7 6 3 7 7 5 5 7 3 5 6 5 6 9 6 6 7 8 8 4

142 42.71 26.43 73.2%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 7 6 7 4 9 7 5 6 5 5 6 5 4 6 8 5 5 7 8 7 4

141 46.44 27.39 72.7%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 7 5 7 4 7 8 6 5 6 6 6 6 4 7 9 3 5 7 8 7 4

141 44.30 27.39 72.7%
Squiggle

1 7 5 8 7 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 4 4 7 9 6 5 7 8 6 5

141 40.62 26.61 72.7%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 6 7 7 5 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 6 9 4 5 7 8 7 4

140 47.04 25.96 72.2%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 7 7 6 4 8 7 6 6 6 4 6 4 3 6 9 5 6 7 8 7 4

140 43.76 26.24 72.2%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 6 7 6 4 7 6 6 6 6 4 6 4 5 6 9 6 5 7 8 7 4

139 48.23 25.74 71.6%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 6 7 6 4 6 7 7 6 6 5 6 4 4 6 9 5 5 7 8 7 4

139 46.63 25.79 71.6%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 8 4 7 8 8 8 5

139 45.51 26.34 71.6%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 7 7 7 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 4 3 7 9 4 6 7 8 7 4

139 41.26 26.61 71.6%
The Footycast

1 7 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 9 4 6 8 8 7 4

139 32.77 27.80 71.6%
Stattraction

2 7 4 8 6 6 4 8 7 6 5 5 4 6 6 4 6 9 4 5 6 8 7 5

138 41.49 26.86 71.1%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 7 6 8 4 7 8 7 5 5 4 6 5 3 6 9 3 6 7 8 7 4

137 40.36 27.10 70.6%
Graft

1 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 7 9 5 6 7 8 8 4

137 37.88 27.52 70.6%
footycharts

2 7 3 8 7 6 5 8 6 6 4 6 4 5 5 3 6 8 6 6 6 8 7 4

136 37.99 27.68 70.1%
Hyperion

1 7 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 5 3 7 4 4 6 4 6 8 6 8 8 7 8 4

136 37.54 27.71 70.1%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 6 7 6 4 8 7 6 4 5 4 4 5 4 7 9 5 7 7 8 7 4

135 38.75 27.01 69.6%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 6 7 6 6 6 8 5 3 6 4 6 6 4 6 9 4 7 8 8 7 4

135 22.83 29.09 69.6%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 6 4 3 6 9 3 5 8 8 8 4

131 37.58 28.02 67.5%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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