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Footy Forensics: Hawthorn to Western Bulldogs

Posted on June 1, 2017 by Max Barry

Don’t miss Part 2 of Matt Cowgill’s amazing graphgasm smorgasbord over at ESPN:

A deep dive into footy data turns up the graph that tells your team’s story so far in 2017. This week, we analyse Hawthorn through to the Western Bulldogs.

Source: Footy Forensics Your AFL club’s key game trend part II

CategoriesUncategorized TagsThe Arc

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Wins % Range
1
 Fremantle 19.3 140%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Sydney 17.8 138%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Brisbane Lions 15.9 122%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
4
 Hawthorn 15.7 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4
5
 Melbourne 15.6 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–6
6
 Geelong 14.9 124%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–6
7
 Adelaide 14.6 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7
8
 Collingwood 13.1 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
9
 Carlton 12.5 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–10
10
 Western Bulldogs 12.9 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–10
11
 St Kilda 10.2 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11
12
 GWS 10.4 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12
13
 Gold Coast 8.8 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
14
 North Melbourne 9.2 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
15
 Port Adelaide 6.6 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 West Coast 4.3 70%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 Richmond 3.1 62%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
18
 Essendon 2.4 63%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 2 games of Round 24, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Fremantle 19 3 – 142.5%
+0.3
1
2
 Sydney 17 5 – 134.5%
+0.8
2
3
 Brisbane Lions 16 7 – 121.7%
+-0.1
3
4
 Hawthorn 14 6 2 117.3%
+0.7
4
5
 Melbourne 15 7 – 111.2%
+0.6
5
6
 Geelong 14 8 – 120.2%
+0.9
6
7
 Adelaide 14 8 – 115.1%
+0.6
7
8
 Collingwood 12 9 2 102.4%
+0.1
8
9
 Western Bulldogs 12 9 1 94.1%
+0.4
10
10
 Carlton 11 10 1 99.6%
+1.0
9
11
 St Kilda 10 13 – 102.8%
+0.2
11
12
 GWS 10 12 – 101.8%
+0.4
12
13
 Gold Coast 9 14 – 94.5%
+-0.2
13
14
 North Melbourne 9 13 – 90.7%
+0.2
14
15
 Port Adelaide 6 16 – 87.0%
+0.6
15
16
 West Coast 4 18 – 70.5%
+0.3
16
17
 Richmond 3 19 – 62.8%
+0.1
17
18
 Essendon 2 20 – 63.5%
+0.4
18

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 7 6 6 9 1

153 49.5356 49.54 25.2651 25.27 76.1194 76.1%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 6 5 5 5 9 6 7 7 6 9 1

152 33.6698 33.67 25.4565 25.46 75.6219 75.6%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 8 5 9 1

150 51.4395 51.44 25.1950 25.20 74.6269 74.6%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 7 9 1

150 47.2970 47.30 25.4997 25.50 74.6269 74.6%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 6 9 1

149 50.6004 50.60 25.2962 25.30 74.1294 74.1%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 6 4 9 1

149 49.2504 49.25 24.8139 24.81 74.1294 74.1%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 5 4 9 1

149 48.8493 48.85 26.0896 26.09 74.1294 74.1%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 5 9 1

148 48.7520 48.75 25.2554 25.26 73.6318 73.6%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 7 6 5 5 8 6 8 7 6 9 1

148 46.8378 46.84 25.6447 25.64 73.6318 73.6%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 9 6 8 6 5 9 0

147 50.0463 50.05 25.2058 25.21 73.1343 73.1%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 8 7 5 9 1

147 47.7424 47.74 26.0050 26.00 73.1343 73.1%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 6 5 9 1

146 52.0391 52.04 25.7135 25.71 72.6368 72.6%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 5 8 6 8 7 5 9 1

146 49.3830 49.38 26.4080 26.41 72.6368 72.6%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 6 5 9 1

144 49.8332 49.83 25.7463 25.75 71.6418 71.6%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 6 6 9 2

144 46.6036 46.60 25.4035 25.40 71.6418 71.6%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 8 6 7 6 6 9 1

144 38.1965 38.20 26.4000 26.40 †1 72.0000 72.0%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5 6 5 6 6 8 6 8 6 4 9 1

143 48.1261 48.13 25.3816 25.38 71.1443 71.1%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 5 9 0

143 47.7014 47.70 25.6188 25.62 71.1443 71.1%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 5 8 6 8 6 5 9 1

143 47.6072 47.61 25.5628 25.56 71.1443 71.1%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 4 6 8 1

143 45.1744 45.17 26.2512 26.25 71.1443 71.1%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 9 0

143 44.2632 44.26 25.3672 25.37 71.1443 71.1%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 6 8 7 7 6 6 9 1

143 39.6949 39.69 25.8473 25.85 71.1443 71.1%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 8 5 7 7 4 9 1

142 47.5509 47.55 26.3713 26.37 †4 72.0812 72.1%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 5 4 6 5 7 6 7 7 4 9 1

139 46.4001 46.40 26.6649 26.66 69.1542 69.2%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 4 5 5 8 6 8 5 6 9 0

139 44.1922 44.19 25.9901 25.99 69.1542 69.2%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 6 6 9 0

139 44.1731 44.17 26.7313 26.73 69.1542 69.2%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5 5 6 6 5 8 6 8 7 6 9 0

139 43.2548 43.25 26.8856 26.89 69.1542 69.2%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 9 7 8 6 6 9 0

138 40.4912 40.49 26.3281 26.33 †9 71.8750 71.9%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4 5 4 5 5 7 6 7 6 5 9 1

138 38.7364 38.74 27.0206 27.02 68.6567 68.7%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 5 5 5 8 5 8 6 4 8 1

136 40.4495 40.45 26.3739 26.37 67.6617 67.7%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 8 6 5 9 1

127 43.6324 43.63 26.6136 26.61 †25 72.1591 72.2%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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