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Footy Forensics: Hawthorn to Western Bulldogs

Posted on June 1, 2017 by Max Barry

Don’t miss Part 2 of Matt Cowgill’s amazing graphgasm smorgasbord over at ESPN:

A deep dive into footy data turns up the graph that tells your team’s story so far in 2017. This week, we analyse Hawthorn through to the Western Bulldogs.

Source: Footy Forensics Your AFL club’s key game trend part II

CategoriesUncategorized TagsThe Arc

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Wins % Range
1
 Fremantle 20.0 144%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Sydney 17.0 132%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Hawthorn 16.1 125%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
4
 Brisbane Lions 15.5 121%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4
5
 Geelong 14.4 123%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–6
6
 Adelaide 14.6 116%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–6
7
 Melbourne 14.0 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7
8
 Western Bulldogs 13.6 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
9
 Collingwood 13.2 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
10
 St Kilda 11.5 108%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
11
 Carlton 10.6 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
12
 GWS 10.3 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
13
 North Melbourne 9.1 87%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13
14
 Gold Coast 8.3 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14–15
15
 Port Adelaide 8.0 97%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14–15
16
 West Coast 5.2 71%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 Essendon 2.7 65%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
18
 Richmond 2.9 61%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 2 games of Round 21, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Fremantle 18 2 – 147.3%
+2.0
1
2
 Sydney 14∗ 5 – 130.0%
+3.0
2
3
 Hawthorn 13∗ 5 1 124.0%
+2.6
3
4
 Brisbane Lions 13∗ 6 – 120.6%
+2.5
4
5
 Geelong 12 8 – 117.2%
+2.4
5
6
 Adelaide 12∗ 7 – 113.7%
+2.6
6
7
 Melbourne 12∗ 7 – 107.8%
+2.0
7
8
 Western Bulldogs 12 8 – 94.8%
+1.6
8
9
 Collingwood 11 8 1 105.6%
+1.7
9
10
 St Kilda 9∗ 10 – 105.8%
+2.5
10
11
 Carlton 9∗ 10 – 92.4%
+1.6
11
12
 GWS 8∗ 11 – 98.3%
+2.3
12
13
 North Melbourne 8∗ 11 – 89.6%
+1.1
13
14
 Gold Coast 7∗ 12 – 94.8%
+1.3
14
15
 Port Adelaide 6∗ 13 – 95.6%
+2.0
15
16
 West Coast 4∗ 15 – 70.1%
+1.2
16
17
 Essendon 2∗ 17 – 65.4%
+0.7
17
18
 Richmond 2∗ 17 – 60.9%
+0.9
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 7 1

132 43.2388 43.24 24.7331 24.73 76.3006 76.3%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 1

131 45.4042 45.40 25.2197 25.22 75.7225 75.7%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 6 5 5 5 9 6 7 2

131 29.4198 29.42 25.0453 25.05 75.7225 75.7%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 1

130 42.1973 42.20 24.3343 24.33 75.1445 75.1%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 2

129 44.6235 44.62 24.7332 24.73 74.5665 74.6%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 2

128 44.4608 44.46 24.8038 24.80 73.9884 74.0%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 9 6 8 1

128 43.1735 43.17 24.8948 24.89 73.9884 74.0%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 2

128 42.2587 42.26 24.7815 24.78 73.9884 74.0%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 2

127 45.6492 45.65 25.1971 25.20 73.4104 73.4%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 8 2

127 42.2987 42.30 25.1850 25.18 73.4104 73.4%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 7 6 5 5 8 6 8 2

127 39.4477 39.45 25.3379 25.34 73.4104 73.4%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 1

127 39.2522 39.25 25.2602 25.26 73.4104 73.4%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 5 8 6 8 2

126 43.1298 43.13 25.9769 25.98 72.8324 72.8%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 2

126 40.3221 40.32 25.6092 25.61 72.8324 72.8%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 2

125 43.2211 43.22 25.2488 25.25 72.2543 72.3%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5 6 5 6 6 8 6 8 2

125 41.9984 42.00 24.8142 24.81 72.2543 72.3%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 2

124 41.6902 41.69 24.9740 24.97 71.6763 71.7%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 5 8 6 8 2

124 41.3917 41.39 24.9321 24.93 71.6763 71.7%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 8 6 7 2

124 32.5072 32.51 26.0465 26.05 †1 72.0930 72.1%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 1

123 37.8030 37.80 25.0740 25.07 71.0983 71.1%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 6 8 7 7 2

123 33.6749 33.67 25.5566 25.56 71.0983 71.1%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 8 5 7 1

122 38.8016 38.80 26.2806 26.28 †3 71.7647 71.8%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 1

122 38.4846 38.48 25.2231 25.22 70.5202 70.5%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 5 4 6 5 7 6 7 2

120 40.4805 40.48 26.2853 26.29 69.3642 69.4%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 4 5 5 8 6 8 1

120 38.6476 38.65 25.7052 25.71 69.3642 69.4%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 2

120 38.5219 38.52 26.2197 26.22 69.3642 69.4%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 5 5 5 8 5 8 2

119 36.7377 36.74 25.4454 25.45 68.7861 68.8%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5 5 6 6 5 8 6 8 2

119 36.1860 36.19 26.5896 26.59 68.7861 68.8%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4 5 4 5 5 7 6 7 2

119 33.1087 33.11 26.6193 26.62 68.7861 68.8%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 9 7 8 1

118 35.2364 35.24 25.8780 25.88 †9 71.9512 72.0%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 8 2

108 38.5112 38.51 26.0000 26.00 †25 72.9730 73.0%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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