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Footy Forensics: Hawthorn to Western Bulldogs

Posted on June 1, 2017 by Max Barry

Don’t miss Part 2 of Matt Cowgill’s amazing graphgasm smorgasbord over at ESPN:

A deep dive into footy data turns up the graph that tells your team’s story so far in 2017. This week, we analyse Hawthorn through to the Western Bulldogs.

Source: Footy Forensics Your AFL club’s key game trend part II

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Wins % Range
1
 Collingwood 17.0 127%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–3
2
 Geelong 15.7 129%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–5
3
 Western Bulldogs 15.4 132%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–7
4
 Gold Coast 15.2 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–6
5
 Hawthorn 14.9 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–7
6
 Brisbane Lions 14.4 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–7
7
 Adelaide 13.8 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–7
8
 GWS 12.1 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–11
9
 Fremantle 12.0 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–11
10
 Sydney 11.8 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–11
11
 Carlton 11.5 108%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–12
12
 St Kilda 9.5 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–15
13
 Essendon 9.4 82%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–15
14
 Port Adelaide 9.1 86%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–15
15
 Melbourne 9.1 87%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–15
16
 North Melbourne 5.9 78%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
17
 Richmond 6.0 70%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
18
 West Coast 3.8 69%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After Round 10, 2025.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Collingwood 8 2 – 129.4%
+9.0
1
2
 Brisbane Lions 7 2 1 110.0%
+6.9
6
3
 Gold Coast 7∗ 2 – 132.0%
+8.2
4
4
 Hawthorn 7 3 – 123.8%
+7.9
5
5
 Western Bulldogs 6 4 – 132.6%
+9.4
3
6
 Adelaide 6 4 – 124.7%
+7.8
7
7
 Geelong 6 4 – 123.4%
+9.7
2
8
 GWS 5 5 – 107.4%
+7.1
8
9
 Fremantle 5 5 – 100.1%
+7.0
9
10
 Essendon 5∗ 4 – 81.2%
+4.4
13
11
 Carlton 4 6 – 106.9%
+7.5
11
12
 Sydney 4 6 – 98.7%
+7.8
10
13
 St Kilda 4 6 – 91.0%
+5.5
12
14
 Melbourne 4 6 – 82.6%
+5.1
15
15
 Port Adelaide 4 6 – 82.0%
+5.1
14
16
 Richmond 3 7 – 69.0%
+3.0
17
17
 North Melbourne 2 7 1 80.2%
+3.4
16
18
 West Coast 1 9 – 66.6%
+2.8
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 8 6

68 14.83 26.44 76.4%
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 8 7 7 5 9 6 6 6

68 14.01 27.04 76.4%
Winnable

1 8 6 6 7 7 4 9 7 6 6

67 15.52 26.48 75.3%
AFL Lab

2 8 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 5

67 13.55 27.75 75.3%
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 7 7 8 5 7 7 6 6

66 14.78 26.95 74.2%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 8 7 8 5 7 6 8 5

66 14.14 27.57 74.2%
Aggregate

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 6 6

66 13.28 27.11 74.2%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 7 6 7 4 9 7 5 6

66 13.12 28.09 74.2%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 7 7 6 4 8 7 6 6

65 14.03 26.67 73.0%
s10

2 8 5 7 7 6 5 7 7 6 5

65 13.04 27.18 73.0%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 6 7 7 5 7 6 6 5

64 15.62 26.52 71.9%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 7 6 8 4 7 8 7 5

64 13.27 27.64 71.9%
Punters

1 8 5 7 7 6 4 7 6 7 6

64 11.34 27.54 71.9%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 7 7 7 5 6 6 6 6

64 9.46 27.37 71.9%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 6 7 6 4 6 7 7 6

63 14.99 26.35 70.8%
Squiggle

1 7 5 8 7 5 6 6 6 6 6

63 11.52 28.05 70.8%
Stattraction

2 7 4 8 6 6 4 8 7 6 5

63 11.32 28.23 70.8%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 7 5 7 4 7 8 6 5

63 11.21 29.06 70.8%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 6 7 6 4 7 6 6 6

62 13.72 26.38 69.7%
footycharts

2 7 3 8 7 6 5 8 6 6 4

62 12.72 28.04 69.7%
ZaphBot

1 8 6 7 7 6 3 7 7 5 5

62 10.10 28.54 69.7%
The Footycast

1 7 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 6 5

60 5.71 30.23 67.4%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 6 7 6 4 8 7 6 4

59 9.67 28.52 66.3%
Graft

1 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 6 5

59 9.43 29.11 66.3%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 5

58 10.91 28.29 65.2%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5

58 10.23 28.28 65.2%
Hyperion

1 7 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 5 3

56 7.72 29.80 62.9%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 6 7 6 6 6 8 5 3

56 6.17 29.60 62.9%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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