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Footy Forensics: Hawthorn to Western Bulldogs

Posted on June 1, 2017 by Max Barry

Don’t miss Part 2 of Matt Cowgill’s amazing graphgasm smorgasbord over at ESPN:

A deep dive into footy data turns up the graph that tells your team’s story so far in 2017. This week, we analyse Hawthorn through to the Western Bulldogs.

Source: Footy Forensics Your AFL club’s key game trend part II

CategoriesUncategorized TagsThe Arc

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Wins % Range
1
 Fremantle 19.7 143%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Sydney 16.3 128%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Hawthorn 15.8 121%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
4
 Brisbane Lions 15.2 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4
5
 Adelaide 14.7 116%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5
6
 Geelong 13.9 121%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–9
7
 Melbourne 14.1 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–7
8
 Collingwood 13.4 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
9
 Western Bulldogs 13.6 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–9
10
 St Kilda 11.0 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
11
 GWS 10.8 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11
12
 Carlton 10.2 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12
13
 North Melbourne 9.6 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13
14
 Gold Coast 8.8 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14
15
 Port Adelaide 8.2 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 West Coast 5.3 71%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 Essendon 3.1 67%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18
18
 Richmond 3.2 63%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18

After 3 games of Round 20, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Fremantle 17 2 – 146.0%
+2.7
1
2
 Sydney 13∗ 5 – 128.3%
+3.3
2
3
 Hawthorn 12∗ 5 1 118.4%
+3.3
3
4
 Brisbane Lions 12∗ 6 – 117.8%
+3.2
4
5
 Adelaide 12 7 – 113.7%
+2.7
5
6
 Melbourne 12 7 – 107.8%
+2.1
7
7
 Collingwood 11 7 1 107.7%
+1.9
8
8
 Geelong 11 8 – 116.5%
+2.9
6
9
 Western Bulldogs 11∗ 7 – 93.2%
+2.6
9
10
 St Kilda 8∗ 10 – 104.0%
+3.0
10
11
 GWS 8∗ 10 – 101.3%
+2.8
11
12
 Carlton 8∗ 10 – 91.1%
+2.2
12
13
 North Melbourne 8∗ 10 – 90.9%
+1.6
13
14
 Gold Coast 7∗ 11 – 95.3%
+1.8
14
15
 Port Adelaide 6∗ 12 – 99.2%
+2.2
15
16
 West Coast 4 15 – 70.1%
+1.3
16
17
 Essendon 2∗ 16 – 67.9%
+1.1
17
18
 Richmond 2∗ 16 – 61.7%
+1.2
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 1

125 38.9729 38.97 24.8773 24.88 75.7576 75.8%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 6 6 6 8 8 2

124 40.7901 40.79 25.4364 25.44 75.1515 75.2%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 2

123 37.8121 37.81 24.5359 24.54 74.5455 74.5%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 6 5 5 5 9 6 1

123 26.8492 26.85 25.0728 25.07 74.5455 74.5%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 2

121 40.2647 40.26 24.9444 24.94 73.3333 73.3%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 9 6 2

121 39.0375 39.04 25.0718 25.07 73.3333 73.3%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 2

120 39.9285 39.93 25.0638 25.06 72.7273 72.7%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 2

120 38.1430 38.14 24.9347 24.93 72.7273 72.7%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 5 8 6 2

120 35.2626 35.26 25.5459 25.55 72.7273 72.7%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 2

119 41.4593 41.46 25.2561 25.26 72.1212 72.1%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 2

119 37.9149 37.91 25.6303 25.63 72.1212 72.1%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 7 6 5 5 8 6 2

119 35.5707 35.57 25.3261 25.33 72.1212 72.1%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 5 8 6 2

118 38.5040 38.50 26.2182 26.22 71.5152 71.5%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 2

118 36.3183 36.32 25.8185 25.82 71.5152 71.5%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 2

117 38.6981 38.70 25.5851 25.59 70.9091 70.9%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5 6 5 6 6 8 6 2

117 37.4811 37.48 25.0084 25.01 70.9091 70.9%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5 5 5 6 5 8 6 2

116 37.1938 37.19 25.0413 25.04 70.3030 70.3%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 5 8 6 2

116 36.6628 36.66 25.2247 25.22 70.3030 70.3%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 8 5 2

116 34.3438 34.34 26.6813 26.68 †2 71.1656 71.2%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 1

116 33.7243 33.72 25.3048 25.30 70.3030 70.3%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 6 8 7 2

116 30.6307 30.63 25.5024 25.50 70.3030 70.3%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 8 6 1

116 28.9964 29.00 26.1402 26.14 †1 70.7317 70.7%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4 5 5 5 6 8 7 2

115 33.5232 33.52 25.4024 25.40 69.6970 69.7%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 5 4 6 5 7 6 2

113 36.5378 36.54 26.4931 26.49 68.4848 68.5%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 4 5 5 8 6 2

113 35.3026 35.30 25.5879 25.59 68.4848 68.5%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 2

112 34.7697 34.77 26.5758 26.58 67.8788 67.9%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4 5 4 5 5 7 6 2

112 29.5862 29.59 26.5887 26.59 67.8788 67.9%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 5 5 5 8 5 2

111 32.9152 32.92 25.5344 25.53 67.2727 67.3%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5 5 6 6 5 8 6 2

111 32.3079 32.31 26.6485 26.65 67.2727 67.3%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 9 7 2

111 32.0154 32.02 25.9167 25.92 †9 71.1538 71.2%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 2

100 34.2749 34.27 26.1500 26.15 †25 71.4286 71.4%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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