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Footy Forensics: Hawthorn to Western Bulldogs

Posted on June 1, 2017 by Max Barry

Don’t miss Part 2 of Matt Cowgill’s amazing graphgasm smorgasbord over at ESPN:

A deep dive into footy data turns up the graph that tells your team’s story so far in 2017. This week, we analyse Hawthorn through to the Western Bulldogs.

Source: Footy Forensics Your AFL club’s key game trend part II

CategoriesUncategorized TagsThe Arc

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Wins % Range
1
 Fremantle 19.0 138%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Sydney 18.0 137%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Brisbane Lions 16.0 122%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
4
 Hawthorn 16.0 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
5
 Geelong 15.0 123%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–6
6
 Adelaide 15.0 117%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–7
7
 Melbourne 15.0 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–7
8
 Western Bulldogs 13.5 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
9
 Collingwood 13.0 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
10
 Carlton 12.5 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
11
 St Kilda 10.0 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
12
 GWS 10.0 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
13
 Gold Coast 9.0 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
14
 North Melbourne 9.0 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
15
 Port Adelaide 7.0 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 West Coast 4.0 69%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 Richmond 3.0 62%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
18
 Essendon 2.0 64%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 1 game of Round 26, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Fremantle 19 4 – 137.2%
+0.0
1
2
 Sydney 18 5 – 136.1%
+-0.0
2
3
 Brisbane Lions 16 7 – 121.7%
+-0.0
3
4
 Hawthorn 15 6 2 120.1%
+0.0
4
5
 Geelong 15 8 – 122.3%
+-0.0
5
6
 Adelaide 15 8 – 117.3%
+-0.0
6
7
 Melbourne 15 8 – 109.6%
+0.0
7
8
 Western Bulldogs 13 9 1 95.4%
+-0.0
8
9
 Collingwood 12 9 2 102.4%
+0.0
9
10
 Carlton 12 10 1 101.5%
+-0.0
10
11
 St Kilda 10 13 – 102.8%
+0.0
11
12
 GWS 10 13 – 98.9%
+0.0
12
13
 Gold Coast 9 14 – 94.5%
+-0.0
13
14
 North Melbourne 9 14 – 88.8%
+0.0
14
15
 Port Adelaide 7 16 – 88.0%
+-0.0
15
16
 West Coast 4 19 – 69.2%
+0.0
16
17
 Richmond 3 20 – 62.5%
+0.0
17
18
 Essendon 2 21 – 64.6%
+0.0
18

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 7 6 6 9 5 0 2 2 1

162 51.7185 51.72 25.1480 25.15 74.6544 74.7%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 6 5 5 5 9 6 7 7 6 9 6 0 2 2 1

162 35.1794 35.18 25.4237 25.42 74.6544 74.7%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 6 9 6 1 2 2 2

161 53.3697 53.37 25.0698 25.07 74.1935 74.2%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 8 5 9 6 0 2 2 0

159 54.1397 54.14 24.9804 24.98 73.2719 73.3%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 5 4 9 6 0 3 2 0

159 52.1819 52.18 25.8387 25.84 73.2719 73.3%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 5 9 6 0 3 2 0

158 51.4066 51.41 25.0478 25.05 72.8111 72.8%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 6 4 9 6 0 2 2 0

158 51.2700 51.27 24.7213 24.72 72.8111 72.8%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 7 9 5 0 2 2 0

158 48.5393 48.54 25.4206 25.42 72.8111 72.8%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 9 6 8 6 5 9 5 0 3 2 0

157 52.7277 52.73 24.8499 24.85 72.3502 72.4%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 8 7 5 9 6 0 3 2 0

157 49.6452 49.65 25.8571 25.86 72.3502 72.4%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 6 5 9 6 0 2 2 1

156 55.4318 55.43 25.4666 25.47 71.8894 71.9%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 5 8 6 8 7 5 9 6 0 3 2 0

156 52.3009 52.30 26.1659 26.17 71.8894 71.9%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 6 5 9 6 0 3 2 1

155 53.1335 53.13 25.5839 25.58 71.4286 71.4%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 8 6 7 6 6 9 6 1 2 2 1

155 40.5287 40.53 26.2176 26.22 †1 71.7593 71.8%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 4 6 8 6 1 3 2 0

154 46.3096 46.31 26.0676 26.07 70.9677 71.0%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 5 8 6 8 6 5 9 6 0 3 2 0

153 50.7962 50.80 25.2594 25.26 70.5069 70.5%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5 6 5 6 6 8 6 8 6 4 9 6 1 2 2 0

153 50.1642 50.16 25.2735 25.27 70.5069 70.5%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 5 9 5 0 3 2 0

153 49.3566 49.36 25.5111 25.51 70.5069 70.5%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 7 6 5 5 8 6 8 7 6 9 6

153 48.8410 48.84 25.6301 25.63 †10 73.9130 73.9%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 6 6 9 7 0 2 1 1

153 48.3973 48.40 25.3636 25.36 70.5069 70.5%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 6 8 7 7 6 6 9 6 1 3 1 0

153 41.2590 41.26 25.7604 25.76 70.5069 70.5%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 9 5 1 1 2 0

152 46.9430 46.94 25.0014 25.00 †2 70.6977 70.7%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 8 5 7 7 4 9 6 0 2 2 0

151 50.4072 50.41 25.9895 25.99 †5 71.2264 71.2%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 5 4 6 5 7 6 7 7 4 9 6 1 2 1 2

150 49.6171 49.62 26.3855 26.39 69.1244 69.1%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5 5 6 6 5 8 6 8 7 6 9 5 1 3 2 0

150 46.4977 46.50 26.5115 26.51 69.1244 69.1%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 6 6 9 5 1 3 2 0

150 46.4917 46.49 26.3641 26.36 69.1244 69.1%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 9 7 8 6 6 9 6 1 3 2 0

150 43.9493 43.95 25.9904 25.99 †9 72.1154 72.1%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 4 5 5 8 6 8 5 6 9 5 1 1 2 0

148 46.2166 46.22 25.9217 25.92 68.2028 68.2%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4 5 4 5 5 7 6 7 6 5 9 6 0 3 1

147 39.9318 39.93 26.9472 26.95 †2 68.3721 68.4%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 5 5 5 8 5 8 6 4 8 6 0 3 2 0

146 43.0575 43.06 26.1108 26.11 67.2811 67.3%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 8 6 5 9 6 1 3 2 1

139 46.5267 46.53 26.2969 26.30 †25 72.3958 72.4%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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