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Does home ground advantage still exist?

Posted on June 29, 2017June 29, 2017 by Max Barry

The Arc @ ESPN takes a close look at home ground advantage.

A spate of upsets have left many of us pondering whether or not home ground advantage is still a thing in the AFL. It’s time to answer that question.

Source: Footy Forensics: Does home ground advantage still exist?

CategoriesThe Arc

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Wins % Range
1
Geelong 14.8 124%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1
2
Brisbane Lions 14.6 121%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2
3
Hawthorn 14.0 116%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3–4
4
Western Bulldogs 13.9 117%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3–5
5
Collingwood 13.0 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
4–6
6
Adelaide 12.9 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5–7
7
GWS 12.6 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
7–8
8
Gold Coast 12.5 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
6–8
9
Fremantle 12.0 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
9
10
Melbourne 11.4 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
10
11
Sydney 11.2 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
11
12
St Kilda 10.5 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12–14
13
Carlton 10.5 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12–13
14
Port Adelaide 10.1 91%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
13–14
15
North Melbourne 9.1 86%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15–16
16
Richmond 8.3 81%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15–16
17
Essendon 8.1 80%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17
18
West Coast 7.5 76%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18

Pre-season 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
Adelaide – – –
+12.9
6
2
Brisbane Lions – – –
+14.6
2
3
Carlton – – –
+10.5
13
4
Collingwood – – –
+13.0
5
5
Essendon – – –
+8.1
17
6
Fremantle – – –
+12.0
9
7
Geelong – – –
+14.8
1
8
Gold Coast – – –
+12.5
8
9
GWS – – –
+12.6
7
10
Hawthorn – – –
+14.0
3
11
Melbourne – – –
+11.4
10
12
North Melbourne – – –
+9.1
15
13
Port Adelaide – – –
+10.1
14
14
Richmond – – –
+8.3
16
15
St Kilda – – –
+10.5
12
16
Sydney – – –
+11.2
11
17
West Coast – – –
+7.5
18
18
Western Bulldogs – – –
+13.9
4

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 7 7 8 5 7 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 7 9 5 7 7 8 8 8 8 3 1 1 0

163 48.0936 48.09 25.9680 25.97 75.4630 75.5%
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 8 7 7 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 6 9 6 5 7 8 7 7 8 1 1 1 0

161 48.4613 48.46 26.3058 26.31 74.5370 74.5%
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 8 6 6 4 6 4 4 6 9 6 6 7 8 7 7 8 2 2 1 0

161 46.9400 46.94 26.0003 26.00 74.5370 74.5%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 8 7 8 5 7 6 8 5 6 5 5 6 4 7 9 5 6 7 8 8 6 8 2 1 1 0

160 45.1104 45.11 27.0370 27.04 74.0741 74.1%
Punters

1 8 5 7 7 6 4 7 6 7 6 7 5 6 6 4 7 9 5 6 7 8 7 7 8 1 1 1 0

159 51.7316 51.73 26.1569 26.16 73.6111 73.6%
Winnable

1 8 6 6 7 7 4 9 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 6 9 5 6 7 8 7 7 8 2 1 1 0

159 48.0301 48.03 26.2402 26.24 73.6111 73.6%
Aggregate

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 3 7 9 5 6 7 8 7 7 8 1 1 1 0

159 47.6763 47.68 26.2407 26.24 73.6111 73.6%
AFL Lab

2 8 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 5 5 6 6 4 7 8 6 6 7 8 6 6 8 2 1 1 0

159 41.8460 41.85 26.6062 26.61 73.6111 73.6%
s10

2 8 5 7 7 6 5 7 7 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 9 5 6 7 8 7 7 8 1 1 1 0

158 47.7363 47.74 26.0725 26.07 73.1481 73.1%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 7 5 7 4 7 8 6 5 6 6 6 6 4 7 9 3 5 7 8 7 7 8 2 1 2 0

157 46.5408 46.54 27.6343 27.63 72.6852 72.7%
ZaphBot

1 8 6 7 7 6 3 7 7 5 5 7 3 5 6 5 6 9 6 6 7 8 8 7 7 1 1 2 0

156 47.1341 47.13 26.3241 26.32 72.2222 72.2%
Stattraction

2 7 4 8 6 6 4 8 7 6 5 5 4 6 6 4 6 9 4 5 6 8 7 8 8 3 1 2 0

155 45.2877 45.29 27.0762 27.08 71.7593 71.8%
Squiggle

1 7 5 8 7 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 4 4 7 9 6 5 7 8 6 8 8 1 1 1 0

155 44.0639 44.06 26.7647 26.76 71.7593 71.8%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 6 7 7 5 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 6 9 4 5 7 8 7 7 7 2 1 1 0

154 50.2490 50.25 26.0363 26.04 71.2963 71.3%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 8 4 7 8 8 8 8 8 1 1 2 0

154 50.0600 50.06 26.5324 26.53 71.2963 71.3%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 7 6 7 4 9 7 5 6 5 5 6 5 4 6 8 5 5 7 8 7 7 7 2 0 1 0

154 46.9503 46.95 27.9722 27.97 71.2963 71.3%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 7 7 6 4 8 7 6 6 6 4 6 4 3 6 9 5 6 7 8 7 7 8 1 1 1 0

154 46.5200 46.52 26.4090 26.41 71.2963 71.3%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 7 7 7 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 4 3 7 9 4 6 7 8 7 7 7 2 1 2 0

154 45.5319 45.53 26.8519 26.85 71.2963 71.3%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 6 7 6 4 7 6 6 6 6 4 6 4 5 6 9 6 5 7 8 7 7 8 2 0 1 0

153 50.3366 50.34 26.0007 26.00 70.8333 70.8%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 6 7 6 4 6 7 7 6 6 5 6 4 4 6 9 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 1 1 1 0

153 50.1084 50.11 25.8449 25.84 70.8333 70.8%
Hyperion

1 7 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 5 3 7 4 4 6 4 6 8 6 8 8 7 8 7 8 1 2 2 1

153 42.9920 42.99 27.6852 27.69 70.8333 70.8%
Graft

1 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 7 9 5 6 7 8 8 7 8 1 1 1 0

151 40.4665 40.47 27.7407 27.74 69.9074 69.9%
The Footycast

1 7 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 9 4 6 8 8 7 7 8 1 0 0

151 35.7249 35.72 27.8425 27.84 †2 70.5607 70.6%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 6 7 6 4 8 7 6 4 5 4 4 5 4 7 9 5 7 7 8 7 6 8 2 1 2 0

150 43.8748 43.87 27.0602 27.06 69.4444 69.4%
footycharts

2 7 3 8 7 6 5 8 6 6 4 6 4 5 5 3 6 8 6 6 6 8 7 7 8 2 0

149 40.5878 40.59 27.5907 27.59 †4 70.2830 70.3%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 6 7 6 6 6 8 5 3 6 4 6 6 4 6 9 4 7 8 8 7 7 8 1 1 1

149 25.2310 25.23 29.0698 29.07 †1 69.3023 69.3%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 7 6 8 4 7 8 7 5 5 4 6 5 3 6 9 3 6 7 8 7 7 8

148 44.1782 44.18 26.9371 26.94 †9 71.4976 71.5%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 6 4 3 6 9 3 5 8 8 8 6 6 3 2 1

145 39.9262 39.93 28.0767 28.08 †1 67.4419 67.4%

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