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Close Games: Do Successful Teams Win Them?

Posted on July 11, 2017July 11, 2017 by Max Barry

Matter of Stats performs a typically surgical dissection of the idea that good teams win close games. (Spoiler alert: They don’t.)

Successful teams don’t so much tend to win the close ones, but instead tend to win the ones that aren’t close.

Source: UPDATE: Close Games in VFL/AFL History: Do Successful Teams Win Them? — Matter of Stats

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Wins % Range
1
 Western Bulldogs 16.0 128%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
2
 Gold Coast 14.9 124%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–3
3
 Hawthorn 14.9 123%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–3
4
 Geelong 13.8 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–5
5
 Sydney 13.4 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–6
6
 Adelaide 12.8 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–9
7
 Fremantle 12.8 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–8
8
 Brisbane Lions 12.6 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–9
9
 Collingwood 12.0 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–9
10
 GWS 11.4 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
11
 St Kilda 10.7 97%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–14
12
 Melbourne 10.4 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–16
13
 Port Adelaide 9.9 91%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–14
14
 Carlton 9.7 87%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–15
15
 North Melbourne 9.5 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14–15
16
 West Coast 8.6 81%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–16
17
 Richmond 7.0 76%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18
18
 Essendon 6.5 73%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18

After 1 game of Round 3, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Gold Coast 3 – – 191.0%
+11.9
2
2
 Western Bulldogs 3 – – 137.2%
+13.0
1
3
 Sydney 2 1 – 139.5%
+11.4
5
4
 Hawthorn 2 1 – 118.1%
+12.9
3
5
 Geelong 2 1 – 86.7%
+11.8
4
6
 Fremantle 1∗ 1 – 121.1%
+11.8
7
7
 North Melbourne 1∗ 1 – 116.3%
+8.5
15
8
 Port Adelaide 1∗ 1 – 109.3%
+8.9
13
9
 Adelaide 1 2 – 100.0%
+11.8
6
10
 Collingwood 1∗ 1 – 98.7%
+11.0
9
11
 St Kilda 1 2 – 92.3%
+9.7
11
12
 Melbourne 1∗ 1 – 84.4%
+9.4
12
13
 West Coast 1∗ 1 – 81.3%
+7.6
16
14
 GWS 1 2 – 81.1%
+10.4
10
15
 Carlton 1∗ 1 – 70.9%
+8.7
14
16
 Brisbane Lions –∗ 2 – 77.2%
+12.6
8
17
 Richmond –∗ 2 – 64.5%
+7.0
17
18
 Essendon –∗ 2 – 55.0%
+6.5
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 1

18 3.2496 3.25 26.4100 26.41 81.8182 81.8%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 1

17 5.4916 5.49 26.0777 26.08 77.2727 77.3%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 1

17 5.2197 5.22 25.3027 25.30 77.2727 77.3%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 1

17 5.0043 5.00 25.2773 25.28 77.2727 77.3%
HBin

4 7 5 1

17 4.8591 4.86 27.0864 27.09 77.2727 77.3%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 1

16 5.5154 5.52 26.4327 26.43 72.7273 72.7%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 1

16 5.3902 5.39 27.5627 27.56 72.7273 72.7%
s10

2 8 5 1

16 5.3878 5.39 26.5645 26.56 72.7273 72.7%
footycharts

3 7 5 1

16 4.8652 4.87 25.9305 25.93 72.7273 72.7%
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 1

16 4.7834 4.78 27.6482 27.65 72.7273 72.7%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 1

16 4.4064 4.41 26.0455 26.05 72.7273 72.7%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 1

16 4.1136 4.11 27.4382 27.44 72.7273 72.7%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 1

15 5.7757 5.78 27.2514 27.25 68.1818 68.2%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 1

15 5.6850 5.68 26.3368 26.34 68.1818 68.2%
Graft

3 7 4 1

15 4.9330 4.93 26.6364 26.64 68.1818 68.2%
Aggregate

2 7 5 1

15 4.5721 4.57 26.4386 26.44 68.1818 68.2%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 1

15 4.4096 4.41 29.0455 29.05 68.1818 68.2%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 1

15 3.5571 3.56 28.1364 28.14 68.1818 68.2%
Squiggle

1 7 5 1

14 4.0351 4.04 27.2677 27.27 63.6364 63.6%
Stattraction

2 6 5 1

14 3.8555 3.86 27.2764 27.28 63.6364 63.6%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 1

14 3.8508 3.85 28.2273 28.23 63.6364 63.6%
The Footycast

2 7 4 1

14 3.5415 3.54 29.2091 29.21 63.6364 63.6%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 1

14 3.2968 3.30 30.2900 30.29 63.6364 63.6%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 1

14 3.1104 3.11 28.9091 28.91 63.6364 63.6%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 1

14 3.0185 3.02 28.1045 28.10 63.6364 63.6%
Winnable

1 7 4 1

13 4.4627 4.46 27.5668 27.57 59.0909 59.1%
Punters

2 6 4 1

13 4.4424 4.44 26.7500 26.75 59.0909 59.1%
In The Game

2 6 4 1

13 4.0756 4.08 27.7909 27.79 59.0909 59.1%
Hyperion

3 5 4 1

13 1.5053 1.51 28.4545 28.45 59.0909 59.1%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 1

12 0.7210 0.72 31.9545 31.95 54.5455 54.5%
Massey Ratings

2 4

6 1.1606 1.16 35.5833 35.58 †10 50.0000 50.0%

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