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Close Games: Do Successful Teams Win Them?

Posted on July 11, 2017July 11, 2017 by Max Barry

Matter of Stats performs a typically surgical dissection of the idea that good teams win close games. (Spoiler alert: They don’t.)

Successful teams don’t so much tend to win the close ones, but instead tend to win the ones that aren’t close.

Source: UPDATE: Close Games in VFL/AFL History: Do Successful Teams Win Them? — Matter of Stats

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Wins % Range
1
 Brisbane Lions 15.5 134%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Western Bulldogs 15.0 128%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Gold Coast 14.9 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
4
 Hawthorn 13.9 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4
5
 Sydney 13.6 116%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5
6
 Geelong 13.6 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6
7
 Adelaide 12.8 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7
8
 Collingwood 12.6 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8
9
 Fremantle 11.7 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9
10
 GWS 11.0 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
11
 St Kilda 10.7 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11
12
 Port Adelaide 10.5 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12
13
 Carlton 10.5 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13
14
 Essendon 9.1 85%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
15
 Melbourne 9.1 86%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14
16
 North Melbourne 8.9 85%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 West Coast 7.7 77%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
18
 Richmond 6.8 71%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 1 game of Round 0, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Sydney 1 – – 191.3%
+12.6
5
2
 Carlton – 1 – 52.3%
+10.5
13
3
 Adelaide –∗ – –
+12.8
7
4
 Brisbane Lions –∗ – –
+15.5
1
5
 Collingwood –∗ – –
+12.6
8
6
 Essendon –∗ – –
+9.1
14
7
 Fremantle –∗ – –
+11.7
9
8
 Geelong –∗ – –
+13.6
6
9
 Gold Coast –∗ – –
+14.9
3
10
 GWS –∗ – –
+11.0
10
11
 Hawthorn –∗ – –
+13.9
4
12
 Melbourne –∗ – –
+9.1
15
13
 North Melbourne –∗ – –
+8.9
16
14
 Port Adelaide –∗ – –
+10.5
12
15
 Richmond –∗ – –
+6.8
18
16
 St Kilda –∗ – –
+10.7
11
17
 West Coast –∗ – –
+7.7
17
18
 Western Bulldogs –∗ – –
+15.0
2

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
In The Game

1

1 0.7565 0.76 33.8800 33.88 100.0000 100.0%
ZaphBot

1

1 0.6415 0.64 36.0000 36.00 100.0000 100.0%
Punters

1

1 0.6143 0.61 39.6000 39.60 100.0000 100.0%
PlusSixOne

1

1 0.5965 0.60 39.6000 39.60 100.0000 100.0%
Drop Kick Data

1

1 0.5325 0.53 43.9400 43.94 100.0000 100.0%
Hyperion

1

1 0.5134 0.51 44.0000 44.00 100.0000 100.0%
Glicko Ratings

1

1 0.5112 0.51 43.6900 43.69 100.0000 100.0%
The Cruncher

1

1 0.5028 0.50 46.9800 46.98 100.0000 100.0%
What Snoo Thinks

1

1 0.4840 0.48 46.3000 46.30 100.0000 100.0%
Cheap Stats

1

1 0.4647 0.46 38.0000 38.00 100.0000 100.0%
AFLalytics

1

1 0.4282 0.43 46.8300 46.83 100.0000 100.0%
s10

1

1 0.4194 0.42 48.3100 48.31 100.0000 100.0%
Wheelo Ratings

1

1 0.4175 0.42 48.4000 48.40 100.0000 100.0%
Aggregate

1

1 0.3765 0.38 49.4100 49.41 100.0000 100.0%
footycharts

1

1 0.3685 0.37 51.0700 51.07 100.0000 100.0%
Matter of Stats

1

1 0.3582 0.36 51.3000 51.30 100.0000 100.0%
Elo Predicts!

1

1 0.3566 0.36 55.0000 55.00 100.0000 100.0%
Don't Blame the Data

1

1 0.3489 0.35 53.5500 53.55 100.0000 100.0%
The Wooden Finger

1

1 0.3334 0.33 51.0000 51.00 100.0000 100.0%
Informed Stats

1

1 0.3334 0.33 50.0000 50.00 100.0000 100.0%
The Footycast

1

1 0.3325 0.33 49.8000 49.80 100.0000 100.0%
Live Ladders

1

1 0.3205 0.32 53.0000 53.00 100.0000 100.0%
Massey Ratings

1

1 0.2750 0.28 52.5000 52.50 100.0000 100.0%
Graft

1

1 0.2678 0.27 50.0000 50.00 100.0000 100.0%
Stattraction

1

1 0.2334 0.23 55.4500 55.45 100.0000 100.0%
Holy Grail Ratings

1

1 0.1781 0.18 52.9400 52.94 100.0000 100.0%
AFL Scorigami

1

1 0.1474 0.15 57.8800 57.88 100.0000 100.0%
AFL Lab

1

1 0.1164 0.12 57.4000 57.40 100.0000 100.0%
Winnable

1

1 0.1092 0.11 59.9400 59.94 100.0000 100.0%
HBin

1

1 0.0482 0.05 61.7000 61.70 100.0000 100.0%
Squiggle

0

0 -0.0003 0.00 63.0100 63.01 0.0000 0.0%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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