Here’s every AFL/VFL team that’s ever started the season 0-4. 1975 Roos the only one to win >12 in the regular season. pic.twitter.com/eakwXKEnqo
— The Arc (@TheArcFooty) April 19, 2017
Tower of Power after Round 3
What does it look like if you run 10,000 simulations and count how many times each team winds up in each position? This!
At this stage, there’s still lots of uncertainty, so teams are mostly long slashes, capable of finishing in many different positions. As the weeks go by, they tend to flatten out.
Adelaide are already settled in the top 4, though, the squiggle reckons, and Brisbane are very likely for the spoon.
Gold Coast and Freo evacuating those bottom rungs opened up a lot of space for other teams to fall into. That chute opening for Hawthorn all the way down to 17th is kind of terrifying.
Computers are beating the bookies
It’s been a rough start to the year for tipsters. And the start of a season is a tough time for computer models, which generally don’t know about personnel changes during the off-season.
Still, after three rounds, the computers models are doing okay!
| Tips | Bits | |
|---|---|---|
| Figuring Footy | 18 | 0.88 |
| Squiggle | 18 | -0.96 |
| PlusSixOne | 17 | 1.28 |
| Aggregate | 17 | 0.48 |
| Footy Maths Institute | 17 | -1.84 |
| Punters | 16 | 0.73 |
| Matter of Stats | 15 | 0.16 |
| The Arc | 15 | 0.04 |
“Bits” from Monash University rewards tipsters for saying a win was likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely.
Squiggle has been fortunate with a few line-ball calls, doing well on raw tip numbers but badly burned on over-confident predictions that turned out to be upsets.
Figuring Footy has been strong on both. PlusSixOne has been excellent in probabilistic terms, and is currently leading in Bits.
Site launch
Welcome to Squiggle! The idea is to gather the most interesting AFL modeling and data analysis from around the web.
Participating sites:
Squiggle bots continually poll these sites and other sources for the latest probability estimates, creating Squiggle Dials for an at-a-glance summary of who’s tipping what.