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Does the round 7 rule exist?

Posted on May 5, 2017May 5, 2017 by Max Barry

One from the archives of PlusSixOne:

In an article over the weekend, Rohan Connolly from The Age asked if the finals teams were already set by the end of round 7. He suggested that Round 7 appeared to be some kind of milestone.

Source: The round 7 rule? – PlusSixOne

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Wins % Range
1
Fremantle 19.9 145%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1
2
Sydney 17.2 133%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2
3
Hawthorn 16.3 124%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3
4
Brisbane Lions 15.4 121%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
4
5
Geelong 14.3 123%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5–6
6
Adelaide 14.5 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5–6
7
Melbourne 13.9 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
7
8
Western Bulldogs 13.7 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
8–9
9
Collingwood 13.2 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
8–9
10
St Kilda 11.2 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
10
11
Carlton 10.7 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
11–12
12
GWS 10.3 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
11–12
13
North Melbourne 8.9 87%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
13–14
14
Gold Coast 8.4 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
13–15
15
Port Adelaide 8.0 97%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
14–15
16
West Coast 5.2 71%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16
17
Essendon 2.8 65%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17
18
Richmond 2.9 61%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18

After 4 games of Round 21, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
Fremantle 18 2 – 147.3%
+1.9
1
2
Sydney 15 5 – 129.5%
+2.2
2
3
Hawthorn 14 5 1 123.7%
+1.8
3
4
Brisbane Lions 13∗ 6 – 120.6%
+2.4
4
5
Geelong 12 8 – 117.2%
+2.3
5
6
Adelaide 12∗ 7 – 113.7%
+2.5
6
7
Melbourne 12∗ 7 – 107.8%
+1.9
7
8
Western Bulldogs 12 8 – 94.8%
+1.7
8
9
Collingwood 11 8 1 105.6%
+1.7
9
10
St Kilda 9 11 – 104.3%
+2.2
10
11
Carlton 9∗ 10 – 92.4%
+1.7
11
12
GWS 8∗ 11 – 98.3%
+2.3
12
13
North Melbourne 8 12 – 89.3%
+0.9
13
14
Gold Coast 7∗ 12 – 94.8%
+1.4
14
15
Port Adelaide 6∗ 13 – 95.6%
+2.0
15
16
West Coast 4∗ 15 – 70.1%
+1.2
16
17
Essendon 2∗ 17 – 65.4%
+0.8
17
18
Richmond 2∗ 17 – 60.9%
+0.9
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 7 3

134 44.2162 44.22 24.6382 24.64 76.5714 76.6%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 3

133 46.5932 46.59 25.1429 25.14 76.0000 76.0%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 6 5 5 5 9 6 7 4

133 29.8445 29.84 24.9255 24.93 76.0000 76.0%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 3

132 43.2268 43.23 24.2374 24.24 75.4286 75.4%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 4

131 45.7680 45.77 24.6606 24.66 74.8571 74.9%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 4

130 45.6021 45.60 24.7089 24.71 74.2857 74.3%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 9 6 8 3

130 44.3345 44.33 24.7910 24.79 74.2857 74.3%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 4

130 43.2656 43.27 24.6939 24.69 74.2857 74.3%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 4

129 46.7436 46.74 25.1378 25.14 73.7143 73.7%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 8 4

129 43.3357 43.34 25.2057 25.21 73.7143 73.7%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 7 6 5 5 8 6 8 4

129 40.6020 40.60 25.2007 25.20 73.7143 73.7%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 3

129 40.4449 40.44 25.1501 25.15 73.7143 73.7%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 5 8 6 8 4

128 44.0673 44.07 25.8686 25.87 73.1429 73.1%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 4

127 44.4008 44.40 25.2654 25.27 72.5714 72.6%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5 6 5 6 6 8 6 8 4

127 42.9942 42.99 24.7691 24.77 72.5714 72.6%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 3

127 40.7778 40.78 25.5570 25.56 72.5714 72.6%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 4

126 42.5497 42.55 24.9669 24.97 72.0000 72.0%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 5 8 6 8 4

126 42.4183 42.42 24.8373 24.84 72.0000 72.0%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 8 6 7 4

126 33.5593 33.56 25.8851 25.89 †1 72.4138 72.4%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 3

125 38.7817 38.78 24.9297 24.93 71.4286 71.4%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 6 8 7 7 4

125 34.3503 34.35 25.4223 25.42 71.4286 71.4%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 8 5 7 3

124 40.2541 40.25 26.1464 26.15 †3 72.0930 72.1%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 3

124 39.8050 39.80 25.1343 25.13 70.8571 70.9%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 5 4 6 5 7 6 7 4

122 41.8009 41.80 26.1749 26.17 69.7143 69.7%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 4 5 5 8 6 8 3

122 39.3040 39.30 25.5200 25.52 69.7143 69.7%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 4

122 39.2216 39.22 26.1543 26.15 69.7143 69.7%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 5 5 5 8 5 8 4

121 37.5033 37.50 25.3641 25.36 69.1429 69.1%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5 5 6 6 5 8 6 8 4

121 37.3140 37.31 26.4343 26.43 69.1429 69.1%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 9 7 8 3

120 36.3555 36.36 25.6988 25.70 †9 72.2892 72.3%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4 5 4 5 5 7 6 7 3

120 33.7349 33.73 26.5208 26.52 68.5714 68.6%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 8 4

110 39.6252 39.63 25.9200 25.92 †25 73.3333 73.3%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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