The Bookies Bite Back

Punters have known best lately, with the favorites returning 7 tips in each of the last two rounds.

But Figuring Footy is still claiming first place off the back of a great season opening!

Tips Bits

5 9 4 6 7

31 4.1117

4 8 4 7 7

30 5.6630

5 8 4 7 6

30 4.6239

5 8 4 6 7

30 4.0893

5 7 5 6 6

29 1.0637

4 7 4 6 7

28 3.8395

3 8 4 6 7

28 3.3945

5 8 5 5 5

28 1.5787

Disaster for Squiggle, which went out on a limb on Round 5 tips for North Melbourne over Fremantle, and the Demons over the Tigers, and came up short on both.

You can now track these numbers in the new auto-updating Tip Leaderboard.


More on the importance of the early rounds

Two more articles on what early results really mean.

First a fantastic follow-up to the great piece last week from The Arc:

Here’s a version of that graph extended to the full home-and-away season. Cool, IMO. Using this chart, you can look up how many games your team is on pace to win for the year. For example – if your team has won 6 from their first 9 (a 6-3 record), then they’re on pace to win 13.9 for the year – enough to comfortably make the finals.

Source: More on the importance of the early rounds | The Arc

And here’s a particular examination of Round 1 upsets by Hurling People Now:

We have considered two classes of results: eventual finalists beaten in round one by teams who missed the finals, and eventual finalists beaten by other finalists who finished lower down the ladder.

Source: What does winning in round 1 mean?

Who will make the finals? The wisdom of crowds

The Arc has an analysis of entries into tip-the-finalists competition:

Entrants to the finalists-tipping competition are very sure that the GWS Giants will make the finals, with good reason. The median estimate was that the Giants have an 88.4% shot at the finals this year. That’s more bullish than the chances given to the Giants by the betting markets (79%) or our Elo model (72.8%). At the other end of the scale, the clear consensus is that the Lions have a tiny chance of making it.

Source: Who will make the finals? The wisdom of crowds | The Arc