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Anatomy of an upset – how do AFL teams overcome the odds to spring a big win?

Posted on June 22, 2017June 22, 2017 by Max Barry

Hurling People Now counts the ways in which teams can pull off an upset and comes up with four:

  1. 1. Midfield dominance
  2. 2. Stylistic superiority
  3. 3. Incredible efficiency
  4. 4. Unnerving accuracy

Source: Anatomy of an upset – how do AFL teams overcome the odds to spring a big win? | Hurling People Now

CategoriesHurling People Now

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Wins % Range
1
 Sydney 17.0 135%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
2
 Fremantle 17.1 124%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–3
3
 Geelong 15.8 127%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–4
4
 Hawthorn 15.1 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
5
 Brisbane Lions 13.7 116%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–6
6
 Melbourne 13.3 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–8
7
 Adelaide 12.9 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–8
8
 Gold Coast 12.9 108%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–8
9
 Collingwood 11.7 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–10
10
 Western Bulldogs 11.8 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–11
11
 St Kilda 11.0 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–11
12
 North Melbourne 10.0 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–13
13
 GWS 9.9 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–14
14
 Port Adelaide 8.8 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14–15
15
 Carlton 8.6 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–16
16
 West Coast 7.1 71%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–16
17
 Essendon 4.9 74%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18
18
 Richmond 5.0 66%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18

After 7 games of Round 11, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Fremantle 10 1 – 135.5%
+7.1
2
2
 Sydney 9 2 – 142.5%
+8.0
1
3
 Geelong 8 3 – 124.4%
+7.8
3
4
 Hawthorn 7 3 1 110.4%
+7.6
4
5
 Gold Coast 7 4 – 116.9%
+5.9
8
6
 Melbourne 7∗ 3 – 107.6%
+6.3
6
7
 Brisbane Lions 6∗ 4 – 116.6%
+7.7
5
8
 Adelaide 6 5 – 107.9%
+6.9
7
9
 Collingwood 5 5 1 100.3%
+6.2
9
10
 St Kilda 5 6 – 108.2%
+6.0
11
11
 North Melbourne 5 6 – 97.6%
+5.0
12
12
 Western Bulldogs 5∗ 5 – 91.7%
+6.8
10
13
 GWS 4∗ 6 – 90.1%
+5.9
13
14
 Port Adelaide 3 8 – 100.9%
+5.8
14
15
 Carlton 3 8 – 86.1%
+5.6
15
16
 West Coast 3 8 – 66.1%
+4.1
16
17
 Richmond 2 9 – 64.5%
+3.0
18
18
 Essendon 1 10 – 70.9%
+3.9
17

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4

77 25.1277 25.13 24.5642 24.56 79.3814 79.4%
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4

76 25.6784 25.68 25.7408 25.74 78.3505 78.4%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 5

75 17.3042 17.30 25.5072 25.51 77.3196 77.3%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 4

74 25.5638 25.56 25.6461 25.65 76.2887 76.3%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 4

74 23.1607 23.16 26.1546 26.15 76.2887 76.3%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4

73 26.3143 26.31 25.2593 25.26 75.2577 75.3%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 4

73 24.4490 24.45 26.3608 26.36 75.2577 75.3%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 4

73 23.8467 23.85 25.6803 25.68 75.2577 75.3%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 4

73 19.0634 19.06 26.2474 26.25 75.2577 75.3%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 4

72 26.2097 26.21 25.9700 25.97 74.2268 74.2%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4

72 25.7968 25.80 26.6402 26.64 74.2268 74.2%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 4

72 24.7875 24.79 26.0077 26.01 74.2268 74.2%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 4

72 22.9121 22.91 25.9304 25.93 74.2268 74.2%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4

71 23.3382 23.34 26.2221 26.22 73.1959 73.2%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 4

71 23.1837 23.18 27.5979 27.60 73.1959 73.2%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 4

71 22.6225 22.62 26.3084 26.31 73.1959 73.2%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 4

71 22.4434 22.44 26.3726 26.37 73.1959 73.2%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4

70 21.4870 21.49 25.9670 25.97 72.1649 72.2%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 4

70 21.1934 21.19 27.4382 27.44 72.1649 72.2%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 4

68 23.4068 23.41 25.6104 25.61 70.1031 70.1%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 4

68 23.2871 23.29 26.8628 26.86 70.1031 70.1%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 4

68 22.6911 22.69 26.2732 26.27 70.1031 70.1%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 4

68 22.1430 22.14 26.4742 26.47 70.1031 70.1%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4

68 21.8481 21.85 26.8454 26.85 70.1031 70.1%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 4

68 21.2697 21.27 28.4639 28.46 70.1031 70.1%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 4

67 19.6196 19.62 26.2691 26.27 69.0722 69.1%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 4

66 19.0574 19.06 26.8101 26.81 68.0412 68.0%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 4

66 18.4274 18.43 26.6062 26.61 68.0412 68.0%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 4

64 17.3624 17.36 27.2680 27.27 65.9794 66.0%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 4

62 16.8564 16.86 27.0682 27.07 †9 70.4545 70.5%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 4

52 19.3151 19.32 27.6250 27.62 †25 72.2222 72.2%

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