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Anatomy of an upset – how do AFL teams overcome the odds to spring a big win?

Posted on June 22, 2017June 22, 2017 by Max Barry

Hurling People Now counts the ways in which teams can pull off an upset and comes up with four:

  1. 1. Midfield dominance
  2. 2. Stylistic superiority
  3. 3. Incredible efficiency
  4. 4. Unnerving accuracy

Source: Anatomy of an upset – how do AFL teams overcome the odds to spring a big win? | Hurling People Now

CategoriesHurling People Now

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Wins % Range
1
 Western Bulldogs 16.3 130%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
2
 Hawthorn 15.1 125%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–5
3
 Gold Coast 15.0 125%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–6
4
 Fremantle 14.5 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–6
5
 Brisbane Lions 14.2 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–7
6
 Geelong 14.3 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–7
7
 Sydney 14.1 124%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–7
8
 Adelaide 12.2 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
9
 Collingwood 11.9 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–10
10
 GWS 10.9 97%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–12
11
 Melbourne 10.8 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–14
12
 St Kilda 10.2 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–14
13
 North Melbourne 10.0 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–14
14
 Port Adelaide 9.5 91%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–15
15
 West Coast 8.9 79%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14–16
16
 Carlton 8.1 82%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–16
17
 Essendon 5.9 72%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18
18
 Richmond 5.4 69%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18

After 5 games of Round 4, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Gold Coast 3∗ – – 191.0%
+12.0
3
2
 Sydney 3 1 – 182.9%
+11.1
7
3
 Western Bulldogs 3∗ – – 137.2%
+13.3
1
4
 Fremantle 3 1 – 133.4%
+11.5
4
5
 North Melbourne 3 1 – 115.3%
+7.0
13
6
 Hawthorn 2∗ 1 – 118.1%
+13.1
2
7
 Port Adelaide 2 2 – 117.6%
+7.5
14
8
 Brisbane Lions 2 2 – 110.6%
+12.2
5
9
 Melbourne 2∗ 1 – 96.0%
+8.8
11
10
 Collingwood 2 2 – 93.1%
+9.9
9
11
 Geelong 2∗ 1 – 86.7%
+12.3
6
12
 West Coast 2 2 – 64.9%
+6.9
15
13
 Adelaide 1 3 – 99.4%
+11.2
8
14
 St Kilda 1 3 – 86.0%
+9.2
12
15
 Carlton 1 3 – 76.9%
+7.1
16
16
 GWS 1 3 – 76.9%
+9.9
10
17
 Essendon –∗ 3 – 61.8%
+5.9
17
18
 Richmond – 4 – 56.1%
+5.4
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 4

26 8.0848 8.08 24.6667 24.67 78.7879 78.8%
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 4

25 7.7113 7.71 27.0276 27.03 75.7576 75.8%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 2

25 4.4068 4.41 27.8979 27.90 75.7576 75.8%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 3

24 8.1352 8.14 26.1761 26.18 72.7273 72.7%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 4

24 7.7743 7.77 26.6036 26.60 72.7273 72.7%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 3

24 7.0703 7.07 26.7727 26.77 72.7273 72.7%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 4

24 6.2339 6.23 27.2618 27.26 72.7273 72.7%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 2

24 5.8791 5.88 27.3961 27.40 72.7273 72.7%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 3

24 5.8326 5.83 26.0909 26.09 72.7273 72.7%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 3

24 5.8093 5.81 27.2521 27.25 72.7273 72.7%
HBin

4 7 5 5 3

24 5.6647 5.66 27.7212 27.72 72.7273 72.7%
s10

2 8 5 5 3

23 7.6326 7.63 26.3897 26.39 69.6970 69.7%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 3

23 7.5555 7.56 26.7552 26.76 69.6970 69.7%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 3

23 6.3637 6.36 26.7400 26.74 69.6970 69.7%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 3

23 5.6146 5.61 28.5455 28.55 69.6970 69.7%
Graft

3 7 4 6 3

23 5.3330 5.33 27.6970 27.70 69.6970 69.7%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 3

22 7.8601 7.86 26.9736 26.97 66.6667 66.7%
Punters

2 6 4 6 4

22 7.1302 7.13 26.0242 26.02 66.6667 66.7%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 3

22 6.0105 6.01 26.7945 26.79 66.6667 66.7%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 3

22 4.9897 4.99 29.0000 29.00 66.6667 66.7%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 3

22 4.8568 4.86 28.8379 28.84 66.6667 66.7%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 4

22 3.0235 3.02 30.4545 30.45 66.6667 66.7%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 3

21 6.1145 6.11 27.0109 27.01 63.6364 63.6%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 4

21 6.0358 6.04 26.7545 26.75 63.6364 63.6%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 3

21 5.9578 5.96 27.4848 27.48 63.6364 63.6%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 3

21 4.4311 4.43 29.1758 29.18 63.6364 63.6%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 3

21 3.0474 3.05 29.7424 29.74 63.6364 63.6%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 3

20 6.1509 6.15 28.1342 28.13 60.6061 60.6%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 3

20 3.3764 3.38 29.3939 29.39 60.6061 60.6%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5

17 0.6310 0.63 27.4286 27.43 †5 60.7143 60.7%
Massey Ratings

2 4

6 1.1606 1.16 35.5833 35.58 †21 50.0000 50.0%

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