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Anatomy of an upset – how do AFL teams overcome the odds to spring a big win?

Posted on June 22, 2017June 22, 2017 by Max Barry

Hurling People Now counts the ways in which teams can pull off an upset and comes up with four:

  1. 1. Midfield dominance
  2. 2. Stylistic superiority
  3. 3. Incredible efficiency
  4. 4. Unnerving accuracy

Source: Anatomy of an upset – how do AFL teams overcome the odds to spring a big win? | Hurling People Now

CategoriesHurling People Now

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Wins % Range
1
 Western Bulldogs 15.2 126%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
2
 Hawthorn 13.7 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–8
3
 Adelaide 13.7 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–7
4
 Gold Coast 13.7 116%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–7
5
 Geelong 13.4 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–7
6
 Brisbane Lions 13.3 117%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–10
7
 Sydney 13.4 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–9
8
 Collingwood 12.5 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–10
9
 GWS 12.5 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–10
10
 Fremantle 12.2 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–10
11
 Melbourne 10.5 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–14
12
 St Kilda 10.3 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–14
13
 Port Adelaide 10.2 91%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–15
14
 Carlton 9.9 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–15
15
 North Melbourne 9.3 87%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–16
16
 Richmond 8.0 81%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–18
17
 Essendon 7.6 78%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–18
18
 West Coast 7.5 77%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18

After 6 games of Round 1, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Sydney 2 – – 182.9%
+11.4
7
2
 Western Bulldogs 2 – – 154.1%
+13.2
1
3
 Gold Coast 1∗ – – 181.2%
+12.7
4
4
 Adelaide 1∗ – – 117.7%
+12.7
3
5
 Hawthorn 1 1 – 117.1%
+12.7
2
6
 Collingwood 1 1 – 98.7%
+11.5
8
7
 Geelong 1 1 – 79.6%
+12.4
5
8
 GWS 1 1 – 76.4%
+11.5
9
9
 Carlton 1 1 – 70.9%
+8.9
14
10
 Richmond –∗ 1 – 94.7%
+8.0
16
11
 Fremantle –∗ 1 – 90.9%
+12.2
10
12
 St Kilda –∗ 1 – 84.6%
+10.3
12
13
 Brisbane Lions – 2 – 77.2%
+13.3
6
14
 Essendon –∗ 1 – 57.2%
+7.6
17
15
 Melbourne –∗ – –
+10.5
11
16
 North Melbourne –∗ – –
+9.3
15
17
 Port Adelaide –∗ – –
+10.2
13
18
 West Coast –∗ – –
+7.5
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
HBin

4 5

9 2.6871 2.69 29.8909 29.89 81.8182 81.8%
AFLalytics

4 5

9 2.1436 2.14 30.2900 30.29 81.8182 81.8%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 5

9 1.5416 1.54 29.3700 29.37 81.8182 81.8%
What Snoo Thinks

3 5

8 2.7003 2.70 28.0236 28.02 72.7273 72.7%
Matter of Stats

3 5

8 2.5627 2.56 29.4045 29.40 72.7273 72.7%
Glicko Ratings

3 5

8 1.9885 1.99 31.2055 31.21 72.7273 72.7%
Wheelo Ratings

3 5

8 1.5147 1.51 29.8636 29.86 72.7273 72.7%
Drop Kick Data

3 5

8 1.4665 1.47 29.7109 29.71 72.7273 72.7%
Graft

3 4

7 2.8493 2.85 31.0000 31.00 63.6364 63.6%
The Cruncher

2 5

7 2.3955 2.40 29.3345 29.33 63.6364 63.6%
s10

2 5

7 2.0318 2.03 30.9291 30.93 63.6364 63.6%
The Wooden Finger

2 5

7 1.9218 1.92 30.7273 30.73 63.6364 63.6%
Punters

2 5

7 1.9185 1.92 29.4327 29.43 63.6364 63.6%
ZaphBot

2 5

7 1.8733 1.87 35.8182 35.82 63.6364 63.6%
In The Game

2 5

7 1.8203 1.82 30.9127 30.91 63.6364 63.6%
footycharts

3 4

7 1.7074 1.71 31.1500 31.15 63.6364 63.6%
PlusSixOne

2 5

7 1.5853 1.59 30.6909 30.69 63.6364 63.6%
Elo Predicts!

3 4

7 1.5199 1.52 33.1818 33.18 63.6364 63.6%
Hyperion

3 4

7 1.2202 1.22 32.5455 32.55 63.6364 63.6%
AFL Scorigami

3 4

7 0.9903 0.99 33.0582 33.06 63.6364 63.6%
Cheap Stats

3 4

7 0.9230 0.92 31.7273 31.73 63.6364 63.6%
Don't Blame the Data

2 4

6 2.0972 2.10 32.9055 32.91 54.5455 54.5%
Aggregate

2 4

6 1.9562 1.96 30.9645 30.96 54.5455 54.5%
Stattraction

2 4

6 1.7806 1.78 32.2873 32.29 54.5455 54.5%
Informed Stats

2 4

6 1.5520 1.55 33.0909 33.09 54.5455 54.5%
Live Ladders

2 4

6 1.5068 1.51 31.0909 31.09 54.5455 54.5%
Squiggle

1 5

6 1.4910 1.49 32.7436 32.74 54.5455 54.5%
Massey Ratings

2 4

6 1.3287 1.33 34.1364 34.14 54.5455 54.5%
Winnable

1 5

6 1.3156 1.32 33.4255 33.43 54.5455 54.5%
The Footycast

2 4

6 1.2088 1.21 34.8000 34.80 54.5455 54.5%
AFL Lab

2 4

6 1.0685 1.07 36.5718 36.57 54.5455 54.5%

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