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Anatomy of an upset – how do AFL teams overcome the odds to spring a big win?

Posted on June 22, 2017June 22, 2017 by Max Barry

Hurling People Now counts the ways in which teams can pull off an upset and comes up with four:

  1. 1. Midfield dominance
  2. 2. Stylistic superiority
  3. 3. Incredible efficiency
  4. 4. Unnerving accuracy

Source: Anatomy of an upset – how do AFL teams overcome the odds to spring a big win? | Hurling People Now

CategoriesHurling People Now

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Wins % Range
1
 Collingwood 18.1 132%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Geelong 16.3 133%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Adelaide 15.0 130%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–5
4
 Brisbane Lions 15.1 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–5
5
 Western Bulldogs 14.6 134%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–7
6
 Gold Coast 14.0 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–9
7
 Hawthorn 14.2 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–8
8
 Fremantle 13.6 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–9
9
 GWS 13.1 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
10
 Sydney 10.9 97%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–11
11
 Carlton 10.4 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–11
12
 Port Adelaide 9.5 85%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–14
13
 St Kilda 9.0 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–14
14
 Melbourne 9.0 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–15
15
 Essendon 8.8 78%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–15
16
 North Melbourne 6.9 80%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 Richmond 5.2 69%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
18
 West Coast 3.0 66%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After Round 15, 2025.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Collingwood 12∗ 2 – 135.0%
+6.1
1
2
 Brisbane Lions 10 4 1 113.4%
+4.6
4
3
 Geelong 10 5 – 127.5%
+6.3
2
4
 Adelaide 9∗ 5 – 135.2%
+6.0
3
5
 Hawthorn 9∗ 5 – 111.6%
+5.2
7
6
 Fremantle 9∗ 5 – 110.0%
+4.6
8
7
 GWS 9 6 – 107.6%
+4.1
9
8
 Western Bulldogs 8∗ 6 – 133.4%
+6.6
5
9
 Gold Coast 8∗ 5 – 120.1%
+6.0
6
10
 Carlton 6∗ 8 – 105.1%
+4.4
11
11
 Sydney 6∗ 8 – 92.2%
+4.9
10
12
 Port Adelaide 6∗ 8 – 84.0%
+3.5
12
13
 Essendon 6∗ 8 – 77.5%
+2.8
15
14
 Melbourne 5∗ 9 – 87.1%
+4.0
14
15
 St Kilda 5∗ 9 – 86.2%
+4.0
13
16
 North Melbourne 4∗ 9 1 82.5%
+2.4
16
17
 Richmond 3∗ 11 – 66.6%
+2.2
17
18
 West Coast 1∗ 13 – 65.1%
+2.0
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 8 7 7 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5

95 20.27 26.90 74.8%
AFL Lab

2 8 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 5 5 6 6 4

93 18.08 27.61 73.2%
Winnable

1 8 6 6 7 7 4 9 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3

92 20.74 26.69 72.4%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 8 7 8 5 7 6 8 5 6 5 5 6 4

92 19.93 27.67 72.4%
Aggregate

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 3

92 19.70 26.93 72.4%
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 8 6 6 4 6 4 4

92 19.62 26.73 72.4%
Punters

1 8 5 7 7 6 4 7 6 7 6 7 5 6 6 4

92 18.11 27.22 72.4%
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 7 7 8 5 7 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3

91 21.51 26.79 71.7%
s10

2 8 5 7 7 6 5 7 7 6 5 6 5 6 5 4

91 19.62 26.87 71.7%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 7 5 7 4 7 8 6 5 6 6 6 6 4

91 18.80 28.32 71.7%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 7 6 7 4 9 7 5 6 5 5 6 5 4

91 18.69 28.03 71.7%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 6 7 7 5 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 4

90 21.89 26.48 70.9%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 6 7 6 4 6 7 7 6 6 5 6 4 4

88 20.13 26.53 69.3%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 7 7 6 4 8 7 6 6 6 4 6 4 3

88 19.13 27.05 69.3%
Stattraction

2 7 4 8 6 6 4 8 7 6 5 5 4 6 6 4

88 17.73 27.74 69.3%
Squiggle

1 7 5 8 7 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 4 4

88 17.64 27.65 69.3%
ZaphBot

1 8 6 7 7 6 3 7 7 5 5 7 3 5 6 5

88 17.04 27.71 69.3%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 7 6 8 4 7 8 7 5 5 4 6 5 3

87 19.80 27.27 68.5%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 6 7 6 4 7 6 6 6 6 4 6 4 5

87 19.38 26.48 68.5%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 7 7 7 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 4 3

87 17.05 27.09 68.5%
The Footycast

1 7 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 6 5 6 5 6 5 4

86 11.83 29.33 67.7%
footycharts

2 7 3 8 7 6 5 8 6 6 4 6 4 5 5 3

85 16.98 28.13 66.9%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 4

84 18.30 27.44 66.1%
Graft

1 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4

83 15.66 28.65 65.4%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 6 7 6 6 6 8 5 3 6 4 6 6 4

82 9.71 29.27 64.6%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 6 7 6 4 8 7 6 4 5 4 4 5 4

81 16.63 27.85 63.8%
Hyperion

1 7 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 5 3 7 4 4 6 4

81 14.37 28.96 63.8%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 6 4 3

80 13.91 28.40 63.0%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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