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Anatomy of an upset – how do AFL teams overcome the odds to spring a big win?

Posted on June 22, 2017June 22, 2017 by Max Barry

Hurling People Now counts the ways in which teams can pull off an upset and comes up with four:

  1. 1. Midfield dominance
  2. 2. Stylistic superiority
  3. 3. Incredible efficiency
  4. 4. Unnerving accuracy

Source: Anatomy of an upset – how do AFL teams overcome the odds to spring a big win? | Hurling People Now

CategoriesHurling People Now

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Wins % Range
1
 Adelaide 17.4 146%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Geelong 16.5 141%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Gold Coast 16.1 126%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–5
4
 Collingwood 16.0 122%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–5
5
 Brisbane Lions 15.8 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–6
6
 Fremantle 15.6 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–6
7
 Hawthorn 15.0 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–9
8
 Western Bulldogs 14.4 141%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–9
9
 GWS 14.9 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
10
 Sydney 11.9 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
11
 St Kilda 8.9 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–13
12
 Carlton 8.4 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–14
13
 Port Adelaide 8.8 80%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–13
14
 Melbourne 8.0 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
15
 Essendon 6.9 72%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 North Melbourne 5.4 74%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
17
 Richmond 5.6 67%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
18
 West Coast 1.4 61%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 6 games of Round 22, 2025.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Adelaide 15∗ 5 – 144.1%
+2.4
1
2
 Geelong 15 6 – 139.8%
+1.5
2
3
 Collingwood 15 6 – 124.2%
+1.0
4
4
 Fremantle 15 6 – 112.7%
+0.6
6
5
 Brisbane Lions 14 6 1 111.3%
+1.3
5
6
 Gold Coast 14∗ 6 – 125.1%
+2.1
3
7
 Hawthorn 14 7 – 121.2%
+1.0
7
8
 GWS 13∗ 7 – 111.3%
+1.9
9
9
 Western Bulldogs 12∗ 8 – 137.3%
+2.4
8
10
 Sydney 11 10 – 95.3%
+0.9
10
11
 St Kilda 8 13 – 87.9%
+0.9
11
12
 Port Adelaide 8 13 – 80.5%
+0.8
13
13
 Melbourne 7∗ 13 – 95.0%
+1.0
14
14
 Carlton 7 14 – 91.4%
+1.4
12
15
 Essendon 6∗ 14 – 71.3%
+0.9
15
16
 Richmond 5 16 – 66.3%
+0.6
17
17
 North Melbourne 4∗ 15 1 73.4%
+0.9
16
18
 West Coast 1∗ 19 – 61.9%
+0.4
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 8 7 7 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 6 9 6 5 7 8 4

140 42.91 25.79 75.7%
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 7 7 8 5 7 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 7 9 5 7 7 8 5

139 40.97 25.81 75.1%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 8 7 8 5 7 6 8 5 6 5 5 6 4 7 9 5 6 7 8 5

139 39.36 26.74 75.1%
Punters

1 8 5 7 7 6 4 7 6 7 6 7 5 6 6 4 7 9 5 6 7 8 4

138 43.69 25.72 74.6%
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 8 6 6 4 6 4 4 6 9 6 6 7 8 4

138 41.51 25.62 74.6%
Aggregate

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 3 7 9 5 6 7 8 4

138 40.98 25.82 74.6%
AFL Lab

2 8 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 5 5 6 6 4 7 8 6 6 7 8 3

138 35.79 26.59 74.6%
Winnable

1 8 6 6 7 7 4 9 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 6 9 5 6 7 8 4

137 41.78 25.86 74.1%
s10

2 8 5 7 7 6 5 7 7 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 9 5 6 7 8 4

137 40.64 25.75 74.1%
ZaphBot

1 8 6 7 7 6 3 7 7 5 5 7 3 5 6 5 6 9 6 6 7 8 5

135 39.93 26.34 73.0%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 7 6 7 4 9 7 5 6 5 5 6 5 4 6 8 5 5 7 8 4

134 43.76 26.88 72.4%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 7 5 7 4 7 8 6 5 6 6 6 6 4 7 9 3 5 7 8 4

134 40.63 27.08 72.4%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 6 7 7 5 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 6 9 4 5 7 8 4

133 44.01 25.59 71.9%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 7 7 6 4 8 7 6 6 6 4 6 4 3 6 9 5 6 7 8 4

133 41.17 25.96 71.9%
Squiggle

1 7 5 8 7 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 4 4 7 9 6 5 7 8 3

133 37.20 26.38 71.9%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 6 7 6 4 7 6 6 6 6 4 6 4 5 6 9 6 5 7 8 4

132 44.76 25.34 71.4%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 6 7 6 4 6 7 7 6 6 5 6 4 4 6 9 5 5 7 8 4

132 43.72 25.39 71.4%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 7 7 7 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 4 3 7 9 4 6 7 8 4

132 37.60 26.47 71.4%
The Footycast

1 7 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 9 4 6 8 8 4

132 29.88 27.80 71.4%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 8 4 7 8 8 5

131 41.88 26.22 70.8%
Stattraction

2 7 4 8 6 6 4 8 7 6 5 5 4 6 6 4 6 9 4 5 6 8 4

130 38.35 26.63 70.3%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 7 6 8 4 7 8 7 5 5 4 6 5 3 6 9 3 6 7 8 4

130 36.78 26.86 70.3%
Graft

1 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 7 9 5 6 7 8 5

130 34.85 27.24 70.3%
footycharts

2 7 3 8 7 6 5 8 6 6 4 6 4 5 5 3 6 8 6 6 6 8 4

129 35.21 27.41 69.7%
Hyperion

1 7 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 5 3 7 4 4 6 4 6 8 6 8 8 7 5

129 34.46 27.82 69.7%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 6 7 6 4 8 7 6 4 5 4 4 5 4 7 9 5 7 7 8 4

128 35.57 27.00 69.2%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 6 7 6 6 6 8 5 3 6 4 6 6 4 6 9 4 7 8 8 4

128 21.04 29.29 69.2%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 6 4 3 6 9 3 5 8 8 5

124 34.58 27.87 67.0%

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