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Anatomy of an upset – how do AFL teams overcome the odds to spring a big win?

Posted on June 22, 2017June 22, 2017 by Max Barry

Hurling People Now counts the ways in which teams can pull off an upset and comes up with four:

  1. 1. Midfield dominance
  2. 2. Stylistic superiority
  3. 3. Incredible efficiency
  4. 4. Unnerving accuracy

Source: Anatomy of an upset – how do AFL teams overcome the odds to spring a big win? | Hurling People Now

CategoriesHurling People Now

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Wins % Range
1
 Collingwood 17.6 133%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
2
 Geelong 16.2 130%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–3
3
 Brisbane Lions 15.4 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–5
4
 Adelaide 15.1 129%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–6
5
 Western Bulldogs 14.8 131%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–7
6
 Gold Coast 14.9 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–6
7
 Fremantle 13.3 108%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–9
8
 Hawthorn 13.1 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–9
9
 GWS 12.8 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–9
10
 Carlton 10.6 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–11
11
 Essendon 10.0 84%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–14
12
 Sydney 9.7 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–14
13
 St Kilda 9.6 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–15
14
 Melbourne 9.7 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–15
15
 Port Adelaide 8.8 83%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–15
16
 North Melbourne 5.9 77%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
17
 Richmond 5.8 71%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
18
 West Coast 3.7 67%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After Round 12, 2025.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Collingwood 10 2 – 136.9%
+7.6
1
2
 Brisbane Lions 9 2 1 114.0%
+5.9
3
3
 Adelaide 8 4 – 139.3%
+7.1
4
4
 Gold Coast 8∗ 3 – 127.8%
+6.9
6
5
 Geelong 8 4 – 124.8%
+8.2
2
6
 Hawthorn 7 5 – 110.2%
+6.1
8
7
 GWS 7 5 – 109.4%
+5.8
9
8
 Fremantle 7 5 – 106.4%
+6.3
7
9
 Western Bulldogs 6∗ 5 – 126.5%
+8.8
5
10
 Essendon 6∗ 5 – 84.6%
+4.0
11
11
 St Kilda 5 7 – 93.1%
+4.6
13
12
 Melbourne 5 7 – 87.6%
+4.7
14
13
 Carlton 4∗ 7 – 102.8%
+6.6
10
14
 Sydney 4 8 – 85.7%
+5.7
12
15
 Port Adelaide 4∗ 7 – 79.1%
+4.8
15
16
 Richmond 3 9 – 71.1%
+2.8
17
17
 North Melbourne 2∗ 8 1 78.1%
+3.4
16
18
 West Coast 1 11 – 64.5%
+2.7
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 8 7 7 5 9 6 6 6 6 5

79 17.41 27.64 75.2%
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 8 6 6 4

78 17.40 27.33 74.3%
Winnable

1 8 6 6 7 7 4 9 7 6 6 6 4

77 18.05 27.43 73.3%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 8 7 8 5 7 6 8 5 6 5

77 17.69 27.96 73.3%
Aggregate

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 6 6 6 5

77 16.82 27.57 73.3%
AFL Lab

2 8 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 5 5

77 16.69 28.17 73.3%
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 7 7 8 5 7 7 6 6 6 4

76 18.22 27.52 72.4%
s10

2 8 5 7 7 6 5 7 7 6 5 6 5

76 16.85 27.55 72.4%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 7 6 7 4 9 7 5 6 5 5

76 16.30 28.85 72.4%
Punters

1 8 5 7 7 6 4 7 6 7 6 7 5

76 15.51 27.92 72.4%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 6 7 7 5 7 6 6 5 6 5

75 19.50 27.03 71.4%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 7 7 6 4 8 7 6 6 6 4

75 16.81 27.46 71.4%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 7 5 7 4 7 8 6 5 6 6

75 15.33 29.19 71.4%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 6 7 6 4 6 7 7 6 6 5

74 18.51 26.98 70.5%
Squiggle

1 7 5 8 7 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5

74 15.71 28.24 70.5%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 7 7 7 5 6 6 6 6 5 5

74 13.79 27.69 70.5%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 7 6 8 4 7 8 7 5 5 4

73 16.59 27.95 69.5%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 6 7 6 4 7 6 6 6 6 4

72 16.78 27.19 68.6%
footycharts

2 7 3 8 7 6 5 8 6 6 4 6 4

72 15.74 28.46 68.6%
Stattraction

2 7 4 8 6 6 4 8 7 6 5 5 4

72 14.34 28.55 68.6%
ZaphBot

1 8 6 7 7 6 3 7 7 5 5 7 3

72 13.75 29.08 68.6%
The Footycast

1 7 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 6 5 6 5

71 9.74 30.00 67.6%
Graft

1 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 6 5 5 5

69 12.90 29.28 65.7%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 6 7 6 4 8 7 6 4 5 4

68 13.24 28.51 64.8%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4

67 12.78 28.85 63.8%
Hyperion

1 7 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 5 3 7 4

67 11.89 29.76 63.8%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 6 7 6 6 6 8 5 3 6 4

66 7.98 30.07 62.9%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 5 1 1

60 11.54 27.85†13 65.2%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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