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Welcome AFLalytics!

Posted on January 11, 2019January 11, 2019 by Max Barry

Our first new entry for 2019 is AFLalytics, who started publishing articles last year and is now up and running with a Brownian Motion-inspired Elo model.

AFLalytics also has some very nifty visualizations and apps, which are definitely worth your time during an off-season filled with stupid non-football sports.

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Wins % Range
1
 Fremantle 19.9 145%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Sydney 17.2 134%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Hawthorn 16.3 124%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
4
 Brisbane Lions 15.0 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–6
5
 Geelong 14.3 123%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–6
6
 Adelaide 14.5 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–6
7
 Melbourne 13.9 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7
8
 Western Bulldogs 13.6 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
9
 Collingwood 13.2 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
10
 St Kilda 11.2 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–11
11
 Carlton 11.4 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–12
12
 GWS 10.7 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
13
 North Melbourne 8.9 87%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
14
 Gold Coast 8.4 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–15
15
 Port Adelaide 7.7 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14–15
16
 West Coast 5.2 71%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 Essendon 2.8 65%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
18
 Richmond 2.9 61%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 6 games of Round 21, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Fremantle 18 2 – 147.3%
+1.9
1
2
 Sydney 15 5 – 129.5%
+2.2
2
3
 Hawthorn 14 5 1 123.7%
+1.8
3
4
 Brisbane Lions 13 7 – 114.8%
+2.0
4
5
 Geelong 12 8 – 117.2%
+2.3
5
6
 Adelaide 12∗ 7 – 113.7%
+2.5
6
7
 Melbourne 12∗ 7 – 107.8%
+1.9
7
8
 Western Bulldogs 12 8 – 94.8%
+1.6
8
9
 Collingwood 11 8 1 105.6%
+1.7
9
10
 Carlton 10 10 – 97.0%
+1.4
11
11
 St Kilda 9 11 – 104.3%
+2.2
10
12
 GWS 9 11 – 99.0%
+1.7
12
13
 North Melbourne 8 12 – 89.3%
+0.9
13
14
 Gold Coast 7∗ 12 – 94.8%
+1.4
14
15
 Port Adelaide 6 14 – 95.1%
+1.7
15
16
 West Coast 4∗ 15 – 70.1%
+1.2
16
17
 Essendon 2∗ 17 – 65.4%
+0.8
17
18
 Richmond 2∗ 17 – 60.9%
+0.9
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 7 4

135 43.7345 43.73 24.9093 24.91 76.2712 76.3%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 3

133 45.4654 45.47 25.5198 25.52 75.1412 75.1%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 4

133 42.5943 42.59 24.5307 24.53 75.1412 75.1%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 6 5 5 5 9 6 7 4

133 29.4740 29.47 25.2437 25.24 75.1412 75.1%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 5

132 45.1074 45.11 24.9608 24.96 74.5763 74.6%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 5

131 44.6780 44.68 25.0506 25.05 74.0113 74.0%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 9 6 8 4

131 43.8629 43.86 25.0733 25.07 74.0113 74.0%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 5

131 42.7205 42.72 24.9926 24.99 74.0113 74.0%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 7 6 5 5 8 6 8 6

131 40.9371 40.94 25.3569 25.36 74.0113 74.0%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 5

130 46.1583 46.16 25.4156 25.42 73.4463 73.4%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 4

130 40.0742 40.07 25.4047 25.40 73.4463 73.4%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 8 4

129 42.4284 42.43 25.5763 25.58 72.8814 72.9%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 5 8 6 8 4

128 43.3785 43.38 26.1751 26.18 72.3164 72.3%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 4

127 43.6690 43.67 25.5769 25.58 71.7514 71.8%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5 6 5 6 6 8 6 8 4

127 42.2390 42.24 25.0861 25.09 71.7514 71.8%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 3

127 40.2228 40.22 25.8532 25.85 71.7514 71.8%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 4

126 41.7209 41.72 25.2993 25.30 71.1864 71.2%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 5 8 6 8 4

126 41.6280 41.63 25.1700 25.17 71.1864 71.2%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 8 6 7 4

126 33.0447 33.04 26.1818 26.18 †1 71.5909 71.6%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 8 5 7 4

125 39.4214 39.42 26.4561 26.46 †3 71.8391 71.8%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 4

125 39.1222 39.12 25.4141 25.41 70.6215 70.6%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 3

125 38.1981 38.20 25.2277 25.23 70.6215 70.6%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 6 8 7 7 4

125 33.8575 33.86 25.7209 25.72 70.6215 70.6%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 5 4 6 5 7 6 7 5

123 40.8745 40.87 26.4730 26.47 69.4915 69.5%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 4 5 5 8 6 8 4

123 39.3185 39.32 25.7288 25.73 69.4915 69.5%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 4

122 38.7535 38.75 26.4689 26.47 68.9266 68.9%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5 5 6 6 5 8 6 8 5

122 36.8122 36.81 26.7006 26.70 68.9266 68.9%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 5 5 5 8 5 8 4

121 36.8459 36.85 25.6754 25.68 68.3616 68.4%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 9 7 8 4

121 36.1544 36.15 25.9405 25.94 †9 72.0238 72.0%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4 5 4 5 5 7 6 7 4

121 33.1316 33.13 26.7918 26.79 68.3616 68.4%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 8 4

110 38.6654 38.67 26.2895 26.29 †25 72.3684 72.4%

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Friends of Squiggle

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About Squiggle

Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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