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Welcome AFLalytics!

Posted on January 11, 2019January 11, 2019 by Max Barry

Our first new entry for 2019 is AFLalytics, who started publishing articles last year and is now up and running with a Brownian Motion-inspired Elo model.

AFLalytics also has some very nifty visualizations and apps, which are definitely worth your time during an off-season filled with stupid non-football sports.

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Wins % Range
1
 Sydney 16.3 142%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–3
2
 Hawthorn 16.2 124%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
3
 Fremantle 15.2 121%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–4
4
 Geelong 15.0 122%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
5
 Brisbane Lions 13.6 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–7
6
 Western Bulldogs 13.5 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–7
7
 Gold Coast 13.0 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–9
8
 Adelaide 12.5 108%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–9
9
 Collingwood 11.8 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–10
10
 Melbourne 11.6 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–11
11
 GWS 11.0 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–12
12
 North Melbourne 10.6 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–13
13
 St Kilda 10.4 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–13
14
 Port Adelaide 9.1 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14
15
 Carlton 7.8 85%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–16
16
 West Coast 7.6 72%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–17
17
 Essendon 7.1 81%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–17
18
 Richmond 4.7 66%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 1 game of Round 7, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Sydney 6 1 – 178.1%
+10.3
1
2
 Fremantle 5∗ 1 – 142.7%
+10.2
3
3
 Hawthorn 5∗ 1 – 118.2%
+11.2
2
4
 Gold Coast 4∗ 2 – 126.9%
+9.0
7
5
 North Melbourne 4∗ 2 – 120.8%
+6.6
12
6
 Geelong 4∗ 2 – 116.1%
+11.0
4
7
 Melbourne 4∗ 2 – 94.2%
+7.6
10
8
 Western Bulldogs 4 3 – 91.8%
+9.5
6
9
 Brisbane Lions 3∗ 3 – 111.7%
+10.6
5
10
 Adelaide 3∗ 3 – 105.3%
+9.5
8
11
 Collingwood 3∗ 3 – 94.8%
+8.8
9
12
 Port Adelaide 2∗ 4 – 108.1%
+7.1
14
13
 St Kilda 2∗ 4 – 92.6%
+8.4
13
14
 GWS 2∗ 4 – 86.8%
+9.0
11
15
 West Coast 2∗ 4 – 61.3%
+5.6
16
16
 Carlton 1∗ 5 – 79.2%
+6.8
15
17
 Essendon 1∗ 5 – 79.1%
+6.1
17
18
 Richmond –∗ 6 – 53.6%
+4.7
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 1

45 14.4194 14.42 24.8024 24.80 81.8182 81.8%
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 1

44 14.5837 14.58 26.5071 26.51 80.0000 80.0%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 1

44 9.3353 9.34 26.0220 26.02 80.0000 80.0%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 0

42 13.5343 13.53 26.4602 26.46 76.3636 76.4%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 1

41 15.5149 15.51 26.2709 26.27 74.5455 74.5%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 1

41 14.4651 14.47 25.2665 25.27 74.5455 74.5%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 0

41 14.3835 14.38 26.2182 26.22 74.5455 74.5%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 0

41 14.2953 14.30 27.3585 27.36 74.5455 74.5%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 0

41 14.0143 14.01 26.1920 26.19 74.5455 74.5%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 0

41 12.8215 12.82 26.3476 26.35 74.5455 74.5%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 1

41 12.6734 12.67 27.9455 27.95 74.5455 74.5%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 1

41 11.7463 11.75 26.1831 26.18 74.5455 74.5%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 1

40 12.8489 12.85 26.4844 26.48 72.7273 72.7%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 0

40 12.6039 12.60 26.9500 26.95 72.7273 72.7%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 0

40 11.9156 11.92 27.6695 27.67 72.7273 72.7%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 1

40 8.5878 8.59 28.0182 28.02 72.7273 72.7%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 0

39 11.9902 11.99 27.4000 27.40 70.9091 70.9%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 0

39 11.6024 11.60 28.5091 28.51 70.9091 70.9%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 0

39 9.7681 9.77 27.2873 27.29 70.9091 70.9%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 1

38 13.4696 13.47 26.4835 26.48 69.0909 69.1%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 0

38 13.2405 13.24 27.6795 27.68 69.0909 69.1%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 0

37 12.1431 12.14 28.6909 28.69 67.2727 67.3%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 1

37 12.1200 12.12 26.9676 26.97 67.2727 67.3%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 1

37 11.0544 11.05 26.6540 26.65 67.2727 67.3%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 0

36 11.2585 11.26 28.0113 28.01 65.4545 65.5%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 0

36 11.0230 11.02 30.0364 30.04 65.4545 65.5%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 0

36 9.8978 9.90 27.6491 27.65 65.4545 65.5%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 0

36 8.4049 8.40 28.1400 28.14 65.4545 65.5%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 0

32 7.9626 7.96 28.5273 28.53 58.1818 58.2%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 0

30 5.4610 5.46 28.6304 28.63 †9 65.2174 65.2%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 1

20 6.8625 6.86 31.4333 31.43 †25 66.6667 66.7%

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Friends of Squiggle

  • Live Ladders
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  • HPN
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  • AFLalytics
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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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