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The Tips Are Coming In

Posted on September 27, 2017September 27, 2017 by Max Barry

We have our first computer model Tiger tip! It’s from Matter of Stats.

Matter of Stats post on the tip.

CategoriesFootyMaths Institute, Matter of Stats, Squiggle

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Wins % Range
1
 Fremantle 19.1 139%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Sydney 17.8 138%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Brisbane Lions 15.9 122%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
4
 Hawthorn 15.7 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4
5
 Geelong 14.9 124%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–6
6
 Melbourne 15.3 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–7
7
 Adelaide 14.6 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–7
8
 Western Bulldogs 13.4 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
9
 Collingwood 13.1 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
10
 Carlton 12.4 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
11
 St Kilda 10.2 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
12
 GWS 10.4 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
13
 Gold Coast 8.8 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
14
 North Melbourne 9.2 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
15
 Port Adelaide 6.6 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 West Coast 4.3 70%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 Richmond 3.1 62%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
18
 Essendon 2.4 63%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 4 games of Round 24, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Fremantle 19 4 – 137.2%
+0.1
1
2
 Sydney 17 5 – 134.5%
+0.8
2
3
 Brisbane Lions 16 7 – 121.7%
+-0.1
3
4
 Hawthorn 14 6 2 117.3%
+0.7
4
5
 Melbourne 15 8 – 109.6%
+0.3
6
6
 Geelong 14 8 – 120.2%
+0.9
5
7
 Adelaide 14 8 – 115.1%
+0.6
7
8
 Western Bulldogs 13 9 1 95.4%
+-0.1
8
9
 Collingwood 12 9 2 102.4%
+0.1
9
10
 Carlton 12 10 1 101.5%
+-0.1
10
11
 St Kilda 10 13 – 102.8%
+0.2
11
12
 GWS 10 12 – 101.8%
+0.4
12
13
 Gold Coast 9 14 – 94.5%
+-0.2
13
14
 North Melbourne 9 13 – 90.7%
+0.2
14
15
 Port Adelaide 6 16 – 87.0%
+0.6
15
16
 West Coast 4 18 – 70.5%
+0.3
16
17
 Richmond 3 19 – 62.8%
+0.1
17
18
 Essendon 2 20 – 63.5%
+0.4
18

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 7 6 6 9 1

153 48.5442 48.54 25.3422 25.34 75.7426 75.7%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 6 5 5 5 9 6 7 7 6 9 1

152 33.3518 33.35 25.5095 25.51 75.2475 75.2%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 8 5 9 1

150 50.5968 50.60 25.2683 25.27 74.2574 74.3%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 7 9 1

150 46.1217 46.12 25.6097 25.61 74.2574 74.3%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 6 9 1

149 49.9722 49.97 25.3483 25.35 73.7624 73.8%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 6 4 9 1

149 48.1685 48.17 24.9079 24.91 73.7624 73.8%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 5 4 9 1

149 47.7904 47.79 26.1931 26.19 73.7624 73.8%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 5 9 1

148 48.0982 48.10 25.3159 25.32 73.2673 73.3%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 7 6 5 5 8 6 8 7 6 9 1

148 45.8550 45.85 25.7270 25.73 73.2673 73.3%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 9 6 8 6 5 9 0

147 49.8859 49.89 25.2173 25.22 72.7723 72.8%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 8 7 5 9 1

147 46.9059 46.91 26.0990 26.10 72.7723 72.8%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 6 5 9 1

146 51.2896 51.29 25.7613 25.76 72.2772 72.3%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 5 8 6 8 7 5 9 1

146 48.9871 48.99 26.4356 26.44 72.2772 72.3%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 6 5 9 1

144 49.0393 49.04 25.8131 25.81 71.2871 71.3%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 6 6 9 2

144 45.3657 45.37 25.4856 25.49 71.2871 71.3%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 8 6 7 6 6 9 1

144 37.7621 37.76 26.4527 26.45 †1 71.6418 71.6%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5 6 5 6 6 8 6 8 6 4 9 1

143 47.1203 47.12 25.4650 25.46 70.7921 70.8%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 5 8 6 8 6 5 9 1

143 47.0134 47.01 25.6150 25.61 70.7921 70.8%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 5 9 0

143 46.8551 46.86 25.6917 25.69 70.7921 70.8%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 4 6 8 1

143 44.0790 44.08 26.3532 26.35 70.7921 70.8%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 9 0

143 43.6681 43.67 25.4119 25.41 70.7921 70.8%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 6 8 7 7 6 6 9 1

143 38.9922 38.99 25.9272 25.93 70.7921 70.8%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 8 5 7 7 4 9 1

142 46.6169 46.62 26.4433 26.44 †4 71.7172 71.7%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 5 4 6 5 7 6 7 7 4 9 1

139 45.5042 45.50 26.7422 26.74 68.8119 68.8%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 6 6 9 0

139 43.7923 43.79 26.7772 26.78 68.8119 68.8%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 4 5 5 8 6 8 5 6 9 0

139 43.7632 43.76 26.0198 26.02 68.8119 68.8%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5 5 6 6 5 8 6 8 7 6 9 0

139 43.1646 43.16 26.8614 26.86 68.8119 68.8%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 9 7 8 6 6 9 1

139 40.4912 40.49 26.3005 26.30 †9 72.0207 72.0%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4 5 4 5 5 7 6 7 6 5 9 1

138 37.9985 38.00 27.0750 27.07 68.3168 68.3%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 5 5 5 8 5 8 6 4 8 1

136 40.2469 40.25 26.3717 26.37 67.3267 67.3%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 8 6 5 9 1

127 42.8712 42.87 26.6638 26.66 †25 71.7514 71.8%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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