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Hardest Round Ever?

Posted on July 21, 2017July 21, 2017 by Max Barry

It’s a tough round to tip, observes Matter of Stats:

I’ve been collecting complete TAB Bookmaker data on the line market since 2012, and the average expected victory margin this week – 12.9 points per game – is the lowest it’s been for any home and away round during that period.

Source: 2017 – Round 18 : Hardest Round Ever? — Matter of Stats

CategoriesMatter of Stats

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Wins % Range
1
 Fremantle 18.8 138%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Sydney 17.0 131%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Hawthorn 15.3 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
4
 Brisbane Lions 14.5 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–5
5
 Adelaide 14.3 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–6
6
 Melbourne 13.7 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–7
7
 Geelong 13.3 121%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–9
8
 Western Bulldogs 12.8 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–8
9
 Collingwood 12.3 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
10
 St Kilda 11.2 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–12
11
 GWS 11.2 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–12
12
 Carlton 11.3 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–12
13
 Gold Coast 10.0 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
14
 North Melbourne 10.2 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
15
 Port Adelaide 8.9 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 West Coast 6.1 72%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 Richmond 3.7 64%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
18
 Essendon 2.7 68%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 4 games of Round 18, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Fremantle 15 2 – 142.3%
+3.8
1
2
 Sydney 13 4 – 131.2%
+4.0
2
3
 Hawthorn 10∗ 5 1 110.0%
+4.8
3
4
 Brisbane Lions 10∗ 6 – 111.7%
+4.5
4
5
 Adelaide 10∗ 6 – 111.4%
+4.3
5
6
 Melbourne 10∗ 6 – 106.3%
+3.7
6
7
 Collingwood 9 7 1 104.5%
+2.8
9
8
 Geelong 9 8 – 115.2%
+4.3
7
9
 Western Bulldogs 9∗ 7 – 90.8%
+3.8
8
10
 St Kilda 8 9 – 106.1%
+3.2
10
11
 GWS 8 9 – 101.6%
+3.2
11
12
 Carlton 8∗ 8 – 96.0%
+3.3
12
13
 North Melbourne 8 9 – 91.4%
+2.2
14
14
 Gold Coast 7∗ 9 – 100.7%
+3.0
13
15
 Port Adelaide 6 11 – 101.3%
+2.9
15
16
 West Coast 4∗ 12 – 71.5%
+2.1
16
17
 Richmond 2∗ 14 – 63.3%
+1.7
17
18
 Essendon 1∗ 15 – 69.0%
+1.7
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 5 3

112 34.7523 34.75 24.8747 24.87 75.6757 75.7%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 6 5 5 5 4

111 23.9022 23.90 24.9078 24.91 75.0000 75.0%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 3

110 33.1278 33.13 24.6249 24.62 74.3243 74.3%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 6 6 6 3

109 34.6151 34.62 25.7432 25.74 73.6486 73.6%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 3

108 34.8190 34.82 25.1901 25.19 72.9730 73.0%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 4

108 33.7476 33.75 25.2842 25.28 72.9730 73.0%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 6 5 6 5 3

107 35.5116 35.51 25.0187 25.02 72.2973 72.3%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 3

107 33.0609 33.06 25.1307 25.13 72.2973 72.3%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 5 3

107 29.9992 30.00 25.8439 25.84 72.2973 72.3%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 3

106 35.6879 35.69 25.5535 25.55 71.6216 71.6%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 7 6 5 5 3

106 30.7035 30.70 25.4309 25.43 71.6216 71.6%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 5 3

105 33.4175 33.42 26.5608 26.56 70.9459 70.9%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 3

105 32.7039 32.70 25.9378 25.94 70.9459 70.9%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 6 5 6 5 3

104 33.5799 33.58 26.0376 26.04 70.2703 70.3%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5 6 5 6 6 3

104 33.1511 33.15 25.0645 25.06 70.2703 70.3%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 3

104 31.6756 31.68 26.2635 26.26 70.2703 70.3%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 2

104 28.6246 28.62 25.4581 25.46 70.2703 70.3%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 3

104 28.2302 28.23 27.0525 27.05 †1 70.7483 70.7%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 3

104 24.6990 24.70 26.1361 26.14 †1 70.7483 70.7%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5 5 5 6 5 3

103 32.8846 32.88 25.1829 25.18 69.5946 69.6%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 5 3

103 31.2693 31.27 25.5195 25.52 69.5946 69.6%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 6 3

102 26.0632 26.06 25.6595 25.66 68.9189 68.9%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 4 5 5 4

101 32.0174 32.02 25.3716 25.37 68.2432 68.2%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4 5 5 5 6 3

101 28.9624 28.96 25.5662 25.57 68.2432 68.2%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 5 4 6 5 2

100 30.7037 30.70 26.8791 26.88 67.5676 67.6%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4 5 4 5 5 3

100 26.1104 26.11 26.5212 26.52 67.5676 67.6%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4 5 5 5 5 3

99 30.0355 30.04 27.0270 27.03 66.8919 66.9%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 5 5 5 3

99 28.2104 28.21 25.9315 25.93 66.8919 66.9%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5 5 6 6 5 3

98 26.0043 26.00 27.0473 27.05 66.2162 66.2%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4

97 26.8368 26.84 26.1727 26.17 †9 69.7842 69.8%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 3

86 28.7652 28.77 26.5488 26.55 †25 69.9187 69.9%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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