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Hardest Round Ever?

Posted on July 21, 2017July 21, 2017 by Max Barry

It’s a tough round to tip, observes Matter of Stats:

I’ve been collecting complete TAB Bookmaker data on the line market since 2012, and the average expected victory margin this week – 12.9 points per game – is the lowest it’s been for any home and away round during that period.

Source: 2017 – Round 18 : Hardest Round Ever? — Matter of Stats

CategoriesMatter of Stats

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Wins % Range
1
 Sydney 16.7 145%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–3
2
 Hawthorn 16.5 127%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
3
 Fremantle 15.6 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–4
4
 Brisbane Lions 14.1 121%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–5
5
 Geelong 13.6 114%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–7
6
 Collingwood 12.7 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–8
7
 Western Bulldogs 12.4 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–10
8
 Gold Coast 12.2 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–10
9
 Adelaide 12.3 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–10
10
 Melbourne 12.1 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–11
11
 GWS 11.3 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–12
12
 St Kilda 10.9 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–13
13
 North Melbourne 10.4 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–14
14
 Port Adelaide 10.1 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–14
15
 Carlton 7.9 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–16
16
 West Coast 7.2 68%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–17
17
 Essendon 6.4 76%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
18
 Richmond 4.4 64%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 3 games of Round 8, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Fremantle 7 1 – 133.0%
+8.6
3
2
 Hawthorn 6 1 1 121.2%
+10.0
2
3
 Sydney 6∗ 1 – 178.1%
+10.7
1
4
 Melbourne 5∗ 2 – 102.8%
+7.1
10
5
 Collingwood 4 3 1 108.6%
+8.2
6
6
 Brisbane Lions 4∗ 3 – 118.8%
+10.1
4
7
 North Melbourne 4∗ 3 – 115.9%
+6.4
13
8
 Gold Coast 4∗ 3 – 114.4%
+8.2
8
9
 Geelong 4∗ 3 – 108.6%
+9.6
5
10
 Adelaide 4 4 – 96.6%
+8.3
9
11
 Western Bulldogs 4 4 – 91.5%
+8.4
7
12
 Port Adelaide 3 5 – 110.9%
+7.1
14
13
 St Kilda 3∗ 4 – 110.1%
+7.9
12
14
 GWS 3∗ 4 – 89.8%
+8.3
11
15
 West Coast 2∗ 5 – 55.8%
+5.2
16
16
 Carlton 1∗ 6 – 80.3%
+6.9
15
17
 Essendon 1∗ 6 – 72.9%
+5.4
17
18
 Richmond –∗ 7 – 54.2%
+4.4
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 3

55 17.5744 17.57 25.4447 25.44 83.3333 83.3%
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 3

54 17.9676 17.97 26.6933 26.69 81.8182 81.8%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 2

53 11.5988 11.60 26.4476 26.45 80.3030 80.3%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 3

52 16.5329 16.53 26.9523 26.95 78.7879 78.8%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 3

51 18.7103 18.71 26.6539 26.65 77.2727 77.3%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 3

51 17.8550 17.86 26.2708 26.27 77.2727 77.3%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 3

51 17.8286 17.83 26.8153 26.82 77.2727 77.3%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 2

50 17.8816 17.88 27.9050 27.91 75.7576 75.8%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 2

50 17.4109 17.41 26.8479 26.85 75.7576 75.8%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 3

50 16.2010 16.20 27.0324 27.03 75.7576 75.8%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 2

50 16.1378 16.14 28.5152 28.52 75.7576 75.8%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 2

50 16.1256 16.13 27.0314 27.03 75.7576 75.8%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 2

50 14.7981 14.80 27.0597 27.06 75.7576 75.8%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 3

50 11.4043 11.40 28.6364 28.64 75.7576 75.8%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 2

49 16.4907 16.49 26.9247 26.92 74.2424 74.2%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 2

49 14.7085 14.71 28.5250 28.52 74.2424 74.2%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 3

48 16.2148 16.21 28.4976 28.50 72.7273 72.7%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 3

48 16.1570 16.16 27.8592 27.86 72.7273 72.7%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 2

48 14.9466 14.95 27.9848 27.98 72.7273 72.7%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 2

48 14.8216 14.82 28.8636 28.86 72.7273 72.7%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 2

48 13.0463 13.05 27.8652 27.87 72.7273 72.7%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 3

47 15.5769 15.58 27.4323 27.43 71.2121 71.2%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 3

47 14.5103 14.51 29.1515 29.15 71.2121 71.2%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 2

46 13.3534 13.35 27.5929 27.59 69.6970 69.7%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 3

46 12.1601 12.16 28.3545 28.35 69.6970 69.7%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 2

45 14.4837 14.48 28.2986 28.30 68.1818 68.2%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 2

45 13.8774 13.88 30.3333 30.33 68.1818 68.2%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 2

45 12.4474 12.45 28.0061 28.01 68.1818 68.2%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 2

41 11.2732 11.27 28.6212 28.62 62.1212 62.1%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 2

39 9.1512 9.15 29.5088 29.51 †9 68.4211 68.4%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 2

29 10.7007 10.70 30.9390 30.94 †25 70.7317 70.7%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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