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Hardest Round Ever?

Posted on July 21, 2017July 21, 2017 by Max Barry

It’s a tough round to tip, observes Matter of Stats:

I’ve been collecting complete TAB Bookmaker data on the line market since 2012, and the average expected victory margin this week – 12.9 points per game – is the lowest it’s been for any home and away round during that period.

Source: 2017 – Round 18 : Hardest Round Ever? — Matter of Stats

CategoriesMatter of Stats

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Wins % Range
1
 Collingwood 17.9 132%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Adelaide 16.3 135%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Geelong 15.7 131%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
4
 Brisbane Lions 15.9 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
5
 Gold Coast 15.2 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5
6
 Western Bulldogs 14.3 130%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–9
7
 GWS 14.4 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–8
8
 Hawthorn 14.2 114%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–8
9
 Fremantle 14.0 108%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–9
10
 Sydney 11.4 97%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
11
 Port Adelaide 10.1 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11
12
 Melbourne 8.9 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–13
13
 Carlton 8.7 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–13
14
 St Kilda 7.9 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14–15
15
 Essendon 7.8 76%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14–15
16
 North Melbourne 6.3 77%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
17
 Richmond 5.4 66%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
18
 West Coast 2.5 65%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After Round 18, 2025.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Collingwood 14 3 – 136.1%
+3.9
1
2
 Brisbane Lions 12 4 1 116.8%
+3.4
4
3
 Adelaide 12 5 – 136.1%
+4.3
2
4
 Geelong 11 6 – 127.6%
+4.7
3
5
 Gold Coast 11∗ 5 – 121.8%
+4.2
5
6
 Hawthorn 11 6 – 116.8%
+3.2
8
7
 GWS 11 6 – 113.1%
+3.4
7
8
 Fremantle 11 6 – 109.3%
+3.0
9
9
 Western Bulldogs 10 7 – 129.8%
+4.3
6
10
 Sydney 8 9 – 94.2%
+3.4
10
11
 Port Adelaide 8 9 – 89.8%
+2.1
11
12
 Carlton 6 11 – 93.7%
+2.7
13
13
 Melbourne 6 11 – 89.7%
+2.9
12
14
 Essendon 6∗ 10 – 76.5%
+1.8
15
15
 St Kilda 5 12 – 86.2%
+2.9
14
16
 North Melbourne 4 12 1 76.7%
+1.8
16
17
 Richmond 4 13 – 64.4%
+1.4
17
18
 West Coast 1 16 – 64.2%
+1.5
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 8 7 7 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 6 9 6

116 30.24 25.67 76.3%
AFL Lab

2 8 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 5 5 6 6 4 7 8 6

114 25.94 26.20 75.0%
Punters

1 8 5 7 7 6 4 7 6 7 6 7 5 6 6 4 7 9 5

113 29.40 25.63 74.3%
Aggregate

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 3 7 9 5

113 29.02 25.56 74.3%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 8 7 8 5 7 6 8 5 6 5 5 6 4 7 9 5

113 28.83 26.36 74.3%
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 8 6 6 4 6 4 4 6 9 6

113 28.75 25.48 74.3%
Winnable

1 8 6 6 7 7 4 9 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 6 9 5

112 29.88 25.54 73.7%
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 7 7 8 5 7 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 7 9 5

112 29.81 25.41 73.7%
s10

2 8 5 7 7 6 5 7 7 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 9 5

112 28.88 25.47 73.7%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 7 6 7 4 9 7 5 6 5 5 6 5 4 6 8 5

110 30.16 26.35 72.4%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 7 5 7 4 7 8 6 5 6 6 6 6 4 7 9 3

110 28.84 26.99 72.4%
Squiggle

1 7 5 8 7 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 4 4 7 9 6

110 27.02 26.10 72.4%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 6 7 7 5 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 6 9 4

109 30.99 25.13 71.7%
ZaphBot

1 8 6 7 7 6 3 7 7 5 5 7 3 5 6 5 6 9 6

109 26.90 26.24 71.7%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 6 7 6 4 6 7 7 6 6 5 6 4 4 6 9 5

108 29.89 25.26 71.1%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 6 7 6 4 7 6 6 6 6 4 6 4 5 6 9 6

108 29.67 25.16 71.1%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 7 7 6 4 8 7 6 6 6 4 6 4 3 6 9 5

108 28.57 25.88 71.1%
Stattraction

2 7 4 8 6 6 4 8 7 6 5 5 4 6 6 4 6 9 4

107 27.01 26.18 70.4%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 7 7 7 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 4 3 7 9 4

107 26.27 25.71 70.4%
The Footycast

1 7 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 9 4

106 20.13 27.75 69.7%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 7 6 8 4 7 8 7 5 5 4 6 5 3 6 9 3

105 27.22 26.23 69.1%
footycharts

2 7 3 8 7 6 5 8 6 6 4 6 4 5 5 3 6 8 6

105 25.72 26.93 69.1%
Graft

1 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 7 9 5

104 24.37 27.27 68.4%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 8 4

103 28.26 26.11 67.8%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 6 7 6 4 8 7 6 4 5 4 4 5 4 7 9 5

102 25.82 26.23 67.1%
Hyperion

1 7 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 5 3 7 4 4 6 4 6 8 6

101 23.20 27.55 66.4%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 6 7 6 6 6 8 5 3 6 4 6 6 4 6 9 4

101 14.42 28.43 66.4%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 6 4 3 6 9 3

98 23.31 27.21 64.5%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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