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Close Games: Do Successful Teams Win Them?

Posted on July 11, 2017July 11, 2017 by Max Barry

Matter of Stats performs a typically surgical dissection of the idea that good teams win close games. (Spoiler alert: They don’t.)

Successful teams don’t so much tend to win the close ones, but instead tend to win the ones that aren’t close.

Source: UPDATE: Close Games in VFL/AFL History: Do Successful Teams Win Them? — Matter of Stats

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Wins % Range
1
 Fremantle 19.1 139%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Sydney 17.8 138%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Brisbane Lions 15.9 122%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
4
 Hawthorn 15.7 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–5
5
 Geelong 15.0 123%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–6
6
 Adelaide 15.1 117%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–7
7
 Melbourne 15.2 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–7
8
 Western Bulldogs 13.3 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
9
 Collingwood 13.1 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
10
 Carlton 12.4 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
11
 St Kilda 10.2 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
12
 GWS 10.2 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
13
 Gold Coast 8.8 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
14
 North Melbourne 9.2 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
15
 Port Adelaide 6.6 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 West Coast 4.3 70%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 Richmond 3.0 62%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
18
 Essendon 2.4 63%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 6 games of Round 24, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Fremantle 19 4 – 137.2%
+0.1
1
2
 Sydney 17 5 – 134.5%
+0.8
2
3
 Brisbane Lions 16 7 – 121.7%
+-0.1
3
4
 Geelong 15 8 – 122.3%
+-0.0
5
5
 Adelaide 15 8 – 117.3%
+0.1
6
6
 Hawthorn 14 6 2 117.3%
+0.7
4
7
 Melbourne 15 8 – 109.6%
+0.2
7
8
 Western Bulldogs 13 9 1 95.4%
+-0.2
8
9
 Collingwood 12 9 2 102.4%
+0.1
9
10
 Carlton 12 10 1 101.5%
+-0.1
10
11
 St Kilda 10 13 – 102.8%
+0.2
11
12
 GWS 10 13 – 98.9%
+0.2
12
13
 Gold Coast 9 14 – 94.5%
+-0.2
13
14
 North Melbourne 9 13 – 90.7%
+0.2
14
15
 Port Adelaide 6 16 – 87.0%
+0.6
15
16
 West Coast 4 18 – 70.5%
+0.3
16
17
 Richmond 3 20 – 62.5%
+0.0
17
18
 Essendon 2 20 – 63.5%
+0.4
18

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 7 6 6 9 3

155 49.9450 49.95 25.3038 25.30 75.9804 76.0%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 6 5 5 5 9 6 7 7 6 9 3

154 34.1966 34.20 25.5148 25.51 75.4902 75.5%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 8 5 9 3

152 52.0241 52.02 25.2250 25.23 74.5098 74.5%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 7 9 3

152 47.4614 47.46 25.5800 25.58 74.5098 74.5%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 6 9 3

151 51.6087 51.61 25.3106 25.31 74.0196 74.0%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 6 4 9 3

151 49.6740 49.67 24.8544 24.85 74.0196 74.0%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 5 4 9 3

151 49.3393 49.34 26.1471 26.15 74.0196 74.0%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 5 9 3

150 49.4561 49.46 25.2686 25.27 73.5294 73.5%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 7 6 5 5 8 6 8 7 6 9 3

150 47.2077 47.21 25.6870 25.69 73.5294 73.5%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 9 6 8 6 5 9 2

149 51.0751 51.08 25.1517 25.15 73.0392 73.0%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 8 7 5 9 3

149 48.0949 48.09 26.0882 26.09 73.0392 73.0%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 6 5 9 3

148 52.6340 52.63 25.7436 25.74 72.5490 72.5%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 5 8 6 8 7 5 9 3

148 50.3985 50.40 26.3922 26.39 72.5490 72.5%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 6 5 9 3

146 50.4173 50.42 25.8086 25.81 71.5686 71.6%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 6 6 9 4

146 46.7358 46.74 25.5093 25.51 71.5686 71.6%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 8 6 7 6 6 9 3

146 38.9999 39.00 26.4335 26.43 †1 71.9212 71.9%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5 6 5 6 6 8 6 8 6 4 9 3

145 48.5813 48.58 25.4279 25.43 71.0784 71.1%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 5 8 6 8 6 5 9 3

145 48.4551 48.46 25.5961 25.60 71.0784 71.1%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 5 9 2

145 48.2647 48.26 25.6725 25.67 71.0784 71.1%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 9 2

145 45.2722 45.27 25.2990 25.30 71.0784 71.1%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 4 6 8 3

145 45.2350 45.23 26.3384 26.34 71.0784 71.1%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 6 8 7 7 6 6 9 3

145 40.1646 40.16 25.8838 25.88 71.0784 71.1%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 8 5 7 7 4 9 3

144 48.2501 48.25 26.4031 26.40 †4 72.0000 72.0%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 5 4 6 5 7 6 7 7 4 9 3

141 46.9785 46.98 26.7609 26.76 69.1176 69.1%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 6 6 9 2

141 45.0629 45.06 26.6863 26.69 69.1176 69.1%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 4 5 5 8 6 8 5 6 9 2

141 44.7482 44.75 26.0735 26.07 69.1176 69.1%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5 5 6 6 5 8 6 8 7 6 9 2

141 44.5062 44.51 26.8431 26.84 69.1176 69.1%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 9 7 8 6 6 9 3

141 41.8528 41.85 26.2821 26.28 †9 72.3077 72.3%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4 5 4 5 5 7 6 7 6 5 9 3

140 39.2999 39.30 27.0644 27.06 68.6275 68.6%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 5 5 5 8 5 8 6 4 8 3

138 41.6197 41.62 26.3280 26.33 67.6471 67.6%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 8 6 5 9 3

129 44.3036 44.30 26.6453 26.65 †25 72.0670 72.1%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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