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Posted on June 30, 2017June 30, 2017 by Max Barry

What does the ladder look like if you reverse all the games that were decided by a goal or less? Or if all teams kicked for goal with equal accuracy? Footy Maths has the answers.

Source: FOOTYMATHS INSTITUTE: 15. SCORE REVIEW

CategoriesFootyMaths Institute

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Wins % Range
1
 Hawthorn 16.4 124%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Brisbane Lions 15.4 116%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–6
3
 Geelong 14.4 125%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–6
4
 Adelaide 14.2 116%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–8
5
 Collingwood 14.1 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–7
6
 Western Bulldogs 13.5 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–7
7
 Gold Coast 13.4 116%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–11
8
 GWS 12.9 108%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–9
9
 Sydney 12.6 108%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–11
10
 St Kilda 11.8 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–12
11
 Fremantle 11.6 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–11
12
 Port Adelaide 10.3 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–14
13
 Carlton 9.8 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–14
14
 Essendon 9.4 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–14
15
 North Melbourne 8.0 87%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–17
16
 Melbourne 7.8 83%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–16
17
 Richmond 6.0 69%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–18
18
 West Coast 5.4 72%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18

After 2 games of Round 4, 2025.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Hawthorn 4 – – 127.4%
+12.4
1
2
 Adelaide 3∗ – – 164.0%
+11.2
4
3
 Collingwood 3 1 – 123.4%
+11.1
5
4
 Brisbane Lions 3∗ – – 114.7%
+12.4
2
5
 Gold Coast 2∗ – – 230.6%
+11.4
7
6
 Geelong 2 2 – 135.7%
+12.4
3
7
 GWS 2∗ 1 – 121.3%
+10.9
8
8
 St Kilda 2∗ 1 – 109.3%
+9.8
10
9
 Western Bulldogs 2∗ 1 – 107.3%
+11.5
6
10
 North Melbourne 1∗ 2 – 102.4%
+7.0
15
11
 Sydney 1∗ 2 – 91.5%
+11.6
9
12
 Port Adelaide 1∗ 2 – 88.8%
+9.3
12
13
 Fremantle 1∗ 2 – 84.8%
+10.6
11
14
 Essendon 1∗ 2 – 77.4%
+8.4
14
15
 Richmond 1∗ 2 – 59.0%
+5.0
17
16
 Carlton – 4 – 81.2%
+9.8
13
17
 Melbourne – 4 – 60.9%
+7.8
16
18
 West Coast –∗ 3 – 57.1%
+5.4
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
ZaphBot

1 8 6 7 2

24 8.61 28.72 82.8%
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 7 2

24 7.41 27.33 82.8%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 7 2

24 6.66 31.41 82.8%
s10

2 8 5 7 2

24 6.60 27.95 82.8%
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 8 2

24 6.57 28.87 82.8%
Aggregate

2 8 5 7 2

24 6.56 27.89 82.8%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 6 2

23 7.78 26.81 79.3%
Winnable

1 8 6 6 2

23 7.40 27.28 79.3%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 7 2

23 6.96 32.00 79.3%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 7 2

23 6.57 27.63 79.3%
Punters

1 8 5 7 2

23 5.63 28.49 79.3%
Stattraction

2 7 4 8 2

23 5.11 30.51 79.3%
Squiggle

1 7 5 8 2

23 5.00 29.19 79.3%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 7 2

23 4.55 27.31 79.3%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 6 2

22 7.79 27.59 75.9%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 6 2

22 7.68 26.75 75.9%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 6 2

22 7.10 28.08 75.9%
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 7 2

22 6.90 28.49 75.9%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 8 2

22 6.01 29.45 75.9%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 6 2

22 5.89 29.91 75.9%
footycharts

2 7 3 8 2

22 5.72 29.81 75.9%
AFL Lab

2 8 4 6 2

22 5.12 29.85 75.9%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 7 2

21 6.55 29.59 72.4%
The Footycast

1 7 5 6 2

21 5.45 30.26 72.4%
Hyperion

1 7 5 6 2

21 5.34 30.69 72.4%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 6 2

19 4.00 31.86 65.5%
Graft

1 5 5 6 2

19 3.64 32.14 65.5%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 6 2

17 2.41 32.00 58.6%

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