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Posted on June 30, 2017June 30, 2017 by Max Barry

What does the ladder look like if you reverse all the games that were decided by a goal or less? Or if all teams kicked for goal with equal accuracy? Footy Maths has the answers.

Source: FOOTYMATHS INSTITUTE: 15. SCORE REVIEW

CategoriesFootyMaths Institute

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Wins % Range
1
 Western Bulldogs 16.6 130%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
2
 Hawthorn 15.3 125%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–5
3
 Gold Coast 15.2 126%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–6
4
 Fremantle 14.6 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–6
5
 Geelong 14.6 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–7
6
 Brisbane Lions 14.4 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–7
7
 Sydney 14.0 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–7
8
 Adelaide 12.3 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
9
 Collingwood 11.9 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
10
 GWS 10.9 97%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–11
11
 Melbourne 10.7 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–14
12
 St Kilda 10.2 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–14
13
 North Melbourne 9.8 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–14
14
 Port Adelaide 9.3 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–15
15
 West Coast 8.9 82%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14–16
16
 Carlton 8.0 83%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–16
17
 Essendon 5.7 72%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18
18
 Richmond 5.1 69%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18

After 4 games of Round 4, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Gold Coast 3∗ – – 191.0%
+12.2
3
2
 Western Bulldogs 3∗ – – 137.2%
+13.6
1
3
 Fremantle 3 1 – 133.4%
+11.6
4
4
 North Melbourne 3 1 – 115.3%
+6.8
13
5
 Sydney 2∗ 1 – 139.5%
+12.0
7
6
 Hawthorn 2∗ 1 – 118.1%
+13.3
2
7
 Port Adelaide 2 2 – 117.6%
+7.3
14
8
 Brisbane Lions 2 2 – 110.6%
+12.4
6
9
 Melbourne 2∗ 1 – 96.0%
+8.7
11
10
 Collingwood 2 2 – 93.1%
+9.9
9
11
 West Coast 2∗ 1 – 87.3%
+6.9
15
12
 Geelong 2∗ 1 – 86.7%
+12.6
5
13
 Adelaide 1 3 – 99.4%
+11.3
8
14
 St Kilda 1 3 – 86.0%
+9.2
12
15
 Carlton 1 3 – 76.9%
+7.0
16
16
 GWS 1 3 – 76.9%
+9.9
10
17
 Essendon –∗ 3 – 61.8%
+5.7
17
18
 Richmond – 4 – 56.1%
+5.1
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 3

25 7.3367 7.34 22.4781 22.48 78.1250 78.1%
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 3

24 6.9960 7.00 24.8309 24.83 75.0000 75.0%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 1

24 4.1042 4.10 25.3303 25.33 75.0000 75.0%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 2

23 7.5806 7.58 23.6359 23.64 71.8750 71.9%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 3

23 7.0740 7.07 24.4088 24.41 71.8750 71.9%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 2

23 6.5626 6.56 24.2194 24.22 71.8750 71.9%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 3

23 5.5188 5.52 24.9575 24.96 71.8750 71.9%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 2

23 5.4335 5.43 24.4869 24.49 71.8750 71.9%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 1

23 5.2491 5.25 25.0028 25.00 71.8750 71.9%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 2

23 5.1366 5.14 23.9062 23.91 71.8750 71.9%
HBin

4 7 5 5 2

23 4.8756 4.88 25.5938 25.59 71.8750 71.9%
s10

2 8 5 5 2

22 6.9594 6.96 24.0666 24.07 68.7500 68.8%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 2

22 6.8526 6.85 24.3441 24.34 68.7500 68.8%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 2

22 5.7391 5.74 24.4153 24.42 68.7500 68.8%
Graft

3 7 4 6 2

22 4.8496 4.85 25.3750 25.38 68.7500 68.8%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 2

22 4.8491 4.85 26.5000 26.50 68.7500 68.8%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 2

21 7.0903 7.09 24.8178 24.82 65.6250 65.6%
Punters

2 6 4 6 3

21 6.4072 6.41 23.8594 23.86 65.6250 65.6%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 2

21 5.3097 5.31 24.6344 24.63 65.6250 65.6%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 2

21 4.5523 4.55 26.3750 26.38 65.6250 65.6%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 2

21 4.1841 4.18 26.7338 26.73 65.6250 65.6%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 3

21 2.4385 2.44 28.3750 28.38 65.6250 65.6%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 2

20 5.5765 5.58 24.5388 24.54 62.5000 62.5%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 2

20 5.4118 5.41 25.0938 25.09 62.5000 62.5%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 3

20 5.1999 5.20 24.7459 24.75 62.5000 62.5%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 2

20 3.8510 3.85 26.9656 26.97 62.5000 62.5%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 2

20 2.6622 2.66 27.1125 27.11 62.5000 62.5%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 2

19 5.5835 5.58 25.6425 25.64 59.3750 59.4%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 2

19 2.7085 2.71 27.5938 27.59 59.3750 59.4%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5

17 0.6310 0.63 27.4286 27.43 †4 60.7143 60.7%
Massey Ratings

2 4

6 1.1606 1.16 35.5833 35.58 †20 50.0000 50.0%

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