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Anatomy of an upset – how do AFL teams overcome the odds to spring a big win?

Posted on June 22, 2017June 22, 2017 by Max Barry

Hurling People Now counts the ways in which teams can pull off an upset and comes up with four:

  1. 1. Midfield dominance
  2. 2. Stylistic superiority
  3. 3. Incredible efficiency
  4. 4. Unnerving accuracy

Source: Anatomy of an upset – how do AFL teams overcome the odds to spring a big win? | Hurling People Now

CategoriesHurling People Now

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Wins % Range
1
 Hawthorn 16.1 126%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
2
 Sydney 15.6 134%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–3
3
 Geelong 14.8 121%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–6
4
 Fremantle 14.8 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–5
5
 Western Bulldogs 14.5 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–6
6
 Brisbane Lions 14.3 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–6
7
 Gold Coast 12.9 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–8
8
 Adelaide 12.1 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–10
9
 Collingwood 11.7 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–10
10
 GWS 11.1 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–13
11
 Melbourne 10.8 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–13
12
 St Kilda 10.7 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–12
13
 North Melbourne 10.1 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–14
14
 Port Adelaide 9.4 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–15
15
 Carlton 7.8 85%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14–17
16
 West Coast 7.9 73%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–17
17
 Essendon 7.2 81%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–17
18
 Richmond 5.2 69%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 4 games of Round 6, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Sydney 5 1 – 173.3%
+10.6
2
2
 Fremantle 4∗ 1 – 131.4%
+10.8
4
3
 Gold Coast 4 2 – 126.9%
+8.9
7
4
 Hawthorn 4∗ 1 – 121.0%
+12.1
1
5
 Geelong 4 2 – 116.1%
+10.8
3
6
 Western Bulldogs 4 2 – 102.0%
+10.5
5
7
 Brisbane Lions 3∗ 2 – 115.0%
+11.3
6
8
 North Melbourne 3∗ 2 – 105.9%
+7.1
13
9
 Collingwood 3 3 – 94.8%
+8.7
9
10
 Melbourne 3∗ 2 – 92.7%
+7.8
11
11
 Port Adelaide 2∗ 3 – 110.6%
+7.4
14
12
 Adelaide 2∗ 3 – 106.4%
+10.1
8
13
 St Kilda 2∗ 3 – 91.2%
+8.7
12
14
 GWS 2 4 – 86.8%
+9.1
10
15
 West Coast 2∗ 3 – 64.3%
+5.9
16
16
 Carlton 1 5 – 79.2%
+6.8
15
17
 Essendon 1 5 – 79.1%
+6.2
17
18
 Richmond –∗ 5 – 56.4%
+5.2
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 4

40 13.5582 13.56 24.0514 24.05 81.6327 81.6%
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 4

39 13.6124 13.61 25.8555 25.86 79.5918 79.6%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 4

39 7.8581 7.86 25.4176 25.42 79.5918 79.6%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 4

38 12.7945 12.79 25.2606 25.26 77.5510 77.6%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 4

37 12.8210 12.82 25.1920 25.19 75.5102 75.5%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 4

37 12.7900 12.79 26.0710 26.07 75.5102 75.5%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 4

37 12.2572 12.26 25.1239 25.12 75.5102 75.5%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 4

37 11.0636 11.06 25.3614 25.36 75.5102 75.5%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 3

36 13.0744 13.07 25.3947 25.39 73.4694 73.5%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 4

36 12.5643 12.56 25.0002 25.00 73.4694 73.5%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 4

36 10.9823 10.98 26.1706 26.17 73.4694 73.5%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 3

36 10.6959 10.70 27.0816 27.08 73.4694 73.5%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 4

36 10.3989 10.40 25.9382 25.94 73.4694 73.5%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 4

36 10.3768 10.38 25.4778 25.48 73.4694 73.5%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 3

35 10.8109 10.81 25.9722 25.97 71.4286 71.4%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 4

35 9.9668 9.97 26.3878 26.39 71.4286 71.4%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 3

35 9.7967 9.80 27.1837 27.18 71.4286 71.4%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 4

35 7.4800 7.48 26.5449 26.54 71.4286 71.4%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 4

35 6.7435 6.74 27.5918 27.59 71.4286 71.4%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 4

34 12.3915 12.39 26.2331 26.23 69.3878 69.4%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 4

33 11.9258 11.93 25.8492 25.85 67.3469 67.3%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 4

33 10.5468 10.55 27.3878 27.39 67.3469 67.3%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 3

32 10.7620 10.76 26.3137 26.31 65.3061 65.3%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 3

32 9.7707 9.77 25.8900 25.89 65.3061 65.3%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 4

32 9.4017 9.40 26.9751 26.98 65.3061 65.3%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 3

32 8.8118 8.81 28.9184 28.92 65.3061 65.3%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 4

32 8.1415 8.14 27.0061 27.01 65.3061 65.3%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 4

32 6.7565 6.76 27.4367 27.44 65.3061 65.3%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 3

28 6.7304 6.73 28.1633 28.16 57.1429 57.1%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 4

26 3.9262 3.93 27.2000 27.20 †9 65.0000 65.0%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 4

15 4.7114 4.71 30.7917 30.79 †25 62.5000 62.5%

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