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Anatomy of an upset – how do AFL teams overcome the odds to spring a big win?

Posted on June 22, 2017June 22, 2017 by Max Barry

Hurling People Now counts the ways in which teams can pull off an upset and comes up with four:

  1. 1. Midfield dominance
  2. 2. Stylistic superiority
  3. 3. Incredible efficiency
  4. 4. Unnerving accuracy

Source: Anatomy of an upset – how do AFL teams overcome the odds to spring a big win? | Hurling People Now

CategoriesHurling People Now

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Wins % Range
1
 Fremantle 19.5 142%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Sydney 17.7 138%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Hawthorn 15.8 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
4
 Brisbane Lions 15.5 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–6
5
 Melbourne 15.7 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–6
6
 Geelong 14.8 123%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–6
7
 Adelaide 14.7 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7
8
 Collingwood 13.4 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8
9
 Western Bulldogs 12.8 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9
10
 Carlton 12.0 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
11
 St Kilda 10.6 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11
12
 GWS 10.2 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12
13
 North Melbourne 9.2 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13
14
 Gold Coast 8.4 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14
15
 Port Adelaide 6.9 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 West Coast 4.4 71%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 Richmond 3.1 62%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
18
 Essendon 2.4 63%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 6 games of Round 23, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Fremantle 19 3 – 142.5%
+0.5
1
2
 Sydney 16∗ 5 – 134.0%
+1.7
2
3
 Brisbane Lions 15 7 – 119.5%
+0.5
4
4
 Hawthorn 14 6 2 117.3%
+0.8
3
5
 Melbourne 15 7 – 111.2%
+0.7
5
6
 Geelong 14 8 – 120.2%
+0.8
6
7
 Adelaide 14 8 – 115.1%
+0.7
7
8
 Collingwood 12 8 2 106.1%
+0.4
8
9
 Western Bulldogs 12∗ 9 – 93.9%
+0.8
9
10
 Carlton 11∗ 10 – 99.6%
+1.0
10
11
 St Kilda 10 12 – 104.2%
+0.6
11
12
 GWS 9∗ 12 – 98.9%
+1.2
12
13
 North Melbourne 9 13 – 90.7%
+0.2
13
14
 Gold Coast 8 14 – 93.2%
+0.4
14
15
 Port Adelaide 6 16 – 87.0%
+0.9
15
16
 West Coast 4∗ 17 – 71.5%
+0.4
16
17
 Richmond 3 19 – 62.8%
+0.1
17
18
 Essendon 2∗ 19 – 63.2%
+0.4
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 7 6 6 6

149 48.9718 48.97 24.9714 24.97 76.4103 76.4%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 6 5 5 5 9 6 7 7 6 6

148 33.0338 33.03 25.3327 25.33 75.8974 75.9%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 8 5 6

146 50.5438 50.54 25.0251 25.03 74.8718 74.9%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 7 6

146 46.1295 46.13 25.3394 25.34 74.8718 74.9%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 6 6

145 49.6763 49.68 25.0504 25.05 74.3590 74.4%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 5 4 6

145 48.7193 48.72 25.9538 25.95 74.3590 74.4%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 6 4 6

145 48.1536 48.15 24.5670 24.57 74.3590 74.4%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 9 6 8 6 5 6

144 49.3370 49.34 25.0983 25.10 73.8462 73.8%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 5 6

144 47.8809 47.88 25.0952 25.10 73.8462 73.8%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 7 6 5 5 8 6 8 7 6 6

144 45.4904 45.49 25.6936 25.69 73.8462 73.8%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 8 7 5 6

143 47.2347 47.23 25.6205 25.62 73.3333 73.3%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 6 5 6

142 51.1254 51.13 25.6297 25.63 72.8205 72.8%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 5 8 6 8 7 5 6

142 48.7745 48.77 26.2256 26.23 72.8205 72.8%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 6 5 6

140 49.0132 49.01 25.5778 25.58 71.7949 71.8%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 5 6

140 47.4036 47.40 25.4373 25.44 71.7949 71.8%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 6

140 43.9873 43.99 25.1821 25.18 71.7949 71.8%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 8 6 7 6 6 6

140 37.0835 37.08 26.3454 26.35 †1 72.1649 72.2%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5 6 5 6 6 8 6 8 6 4 6

139 47.4582 47.46 25.1777 25.18 71.2821 71.3%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 5 8 6 8 6 5 6

139 47.0979 47.10 25.3514 25.35 71.2821 71.3%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 6 6 6

139 45.2365 45.24 25.3282 25.33 71.2821 71.3%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 4 6 5

139 44.4963 44.50 26.1069 26.11 71.2821 71.3%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 6 8 7 7 6 6 6

139 38.9524 38.95 25.7456 25.75 71.2821 71.3%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 8 5 7 7 4 6

138 46.0757 46.08 26.2365 26.24 †3 71.8750 71.9%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 6 6 6

136 43.4491 43.45 26.5744 26.57 69.7436 69.7%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 4 5 5 8 6 8 5 6 6

136 43.3965 43.40 25.9333 25.93 69.7436 69.7%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5 5 6 6 5 8 6 8 7 6 6

136 42.1011 42.10 26.8615 26.86 69.7436 69.7%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 5 4 6 5 7 6 7 7 4 6

135 45.9047 45.90 26.4462 26.45 69.2308 69.2%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 9 7 8 6 6 6

135 39.8971 39.90 26.2204 26.22 †9 72.5806 72.6%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4 5 4 5 5 7 6 7 6 5 6

134 37.6224 37.62 27.0058 27.01 68.7179 68.7%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 5 5 5 8 5 8 6 4 5

132 39.8844 39.88 26.1358 26.14 67.6923 67.7%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 8 6 5 6

123 42.9210 42.92 26.4941 26.49 †25 72.3529 72.4%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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