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Footy Forensics: Hawthorn to Western Bulldogs

Posted on June 1, 2017 by Max Barry

Don’t miss Part 2 of Matt Cowgill’s amazing graphgasm smorgasbord over at ESPN:

A deep dive into footy data turns up the graph that tells your team’s story so far in 2017. This week, we analyse Hawthorn through to the Western Bulldogs.

Source: Footy Forensics Your AFL club’s key game trend part II

CategoriesUncategorized TagsThe Arc

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Wins % Range
1
 Fremantle 19.0 138%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Sydney 18.0 137%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Brisbane Lions 16.0 122%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
4
 Hawthorn 16.0 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
5
 Geelong 15.0 123%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–6
6
 Adelaide 15.0 117%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–7
7
 Melbourne 15.0 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–7
8
 Western Bulldogs 13.5 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
9
 Collingwood 13.0 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
10
 Carlton 12.5 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
11
 St Kilda 10.0 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
12
 GWS 10.0 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
13
 Gold Coast 9.0 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
14
 North Melbourne 9.0 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
15
 Port Adelaide 7.0 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 West Coast 4.0 69%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 Richmond 3.0 62%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
18
 Essendon 2.0 64%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 1 game of Round 26, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Fremantle 19 4 – 137.2%
+0.0
1
2
 Sydney 18 5 – 136.1%
+-0.0
2
3
 Brisbane Lions 16 7 – 121.7%
+-0.0
3
4
 Hawthorn 15 6 2 120.1%
+0.0
4
5
 Geelong 15 8 – 122.3%
+-0.0
5
6
 Adelaide 15 8 – 117.3%
+-0.0
6
7
 Melbourne 15 8 – 109.6%
+0.0
7
8
 Western Bulldogs 13 9 1 95.4%
+-0.0
8
9
 Collingwood 12 9 2 102.4%
+0.0
9
10
 Carlton 12 10 1 101.5%
+-0.0
10
11
 St Kilda 10 13 – 102.8%
+0.0
11
12
 GWS 10 13 – 98.9%
+0.0
12
13
 Gold Coast 9 14 – 94.5%
+-0.0
13
14
 North Melbourne 9 14 – 88.8%
+0.0
14
15
 Port Adelaide 7 16 – 88.0%
+-0.0
15
16
 West Coast 4 19 – 69.2%
+0.0
16
17
 Richmond 3 20 – 62.5%
+0.0
17
18
 Essendon 2 21 – 64.6%
+0.0
18

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 7 6 6 9 5 0 2 1

160 51.1293 51.13 25.2564 25.26 74.7664 74.8%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 6 5 5 5 9 6 7 7 6 9 6 0 2 1

160 35.0505 35.05 25.4949 25.49 74.7664 74.8%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 8 5 9 6 0 2 1

158 53.9599 53.96 25.0320 25.03 73.8318 73.8%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 6 9 6 1 2 1

158 52.4184 52.42 25.2378 25.24 73.8318 73.8%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 5 4 9 6 0 3 1

158 52.3669 52.37 25.8505 25.85 73.8318 73.8%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 5 9 6 0 3 1

157 51.3793 51.38 25.0780 25.08 73.3645 73.4%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 6 4 9 6 0 2 1

157 50.9490 50.95 24.7946 24.79 73.3645 73.4%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 7 9 5 0 2 1

157 48.1732 48.17 25.5232 25.52 73.3645 73.4%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 9 6 8 6 5 9 5 0 3 1

156 52.8912 52.89 24.8735 24.87 72.8972 72.9%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 8 7 5 9 6 0 3 1

156 50.3327 50.33 25.7757 25.78 72.8972 72.9%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 5 8 6 8 7 5 9 6 0 3 1

155 52.6252 52.63 26.1636 26.16 72.4299 72.4%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 6 5 9 6 0 2 1

154 55.0136 55.01 25.5485 25.55 71.9626 72.0%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 6 5 9 6 0 3 1

153 53.0281 53.03 25.6356 25.64 71.4953 71.5%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 7 6 5 5 8 6 8 7 6 9 6

153 48.8410 48.84 25.6301 25.63 †7 73.9130 73.9%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 4 6 8 6 1 3 1

153 46.7996 46.80 26.0796 26.08 71.4953 71.5%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 8 6 7 6 6 9 6 1 2 1

153 40.0758 40.08 26.3286 26.33 †1 71.8310 71.8%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 5 8 6 8 6 5 9 6 0 3 1

152 51.1131 51.11 25.2466 25.25 71.0280 71.0%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5 6 5 6 6 8 6 8 6 4 9 6 1 2 1

152 50.1515 50.15 25.3101 25.31 71.0280 71.0%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 5 9 5 0 3 1

152 50.0197 50.02 25.4960 25.50 71.0280 71.0%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 6 8 7 7 6 6 9 6 1 3 0

152 41.4230 41.42 25.7631 25.76 71.0280 71.0%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 6 6 9 7 0 2 0

151 48.5406 48.54 25.3921 25.39 70.5607 70.6%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 9 5 1 1 1

151 46.9719 46.97 25.0292 25.03 †2 71.2264 71.2%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 8 5 7 7 4 9 6 0 2 1

150 50.2407 50.24 26.0495 26.05 †5 71.7703 71.8%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 6 6 9 5 1 3 1

149 46.8716 46.87 26.3364 26.34 69.6262 69.6%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5 5 6 6 5 8 6 8 7 6 9 5 1 3 1

149 46.8334 46.83 26.5327 26.53 69.6262 69.6%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 9 7 8 6 6 9 6 1 3 1

149 44.2434 44.24 25.9805 25.98 †9 72.6829 72.7%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 5 4 6 5 7 6 7 7 4 9 6 1 2 0

147 49.1782 49.18 26.4993 26.50 68.6916 68.7%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 4 5 5 8 6 8 5 6 9 5 1 1 1

147 45.9061 45.91 26.0093 26.01 68.6916 68.7%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4 5 4 5 5 7 6 7 6 5 9 6 0 3

146 40.4592 40.46 27.0359 27.04 †1 68.5446 68.5%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 5 5 5 8 5 8 6 4 8 6 0 3 1

145 43.5622 43.56 26.1000 26.10 67.7570 67.8%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 8 6 5 9 6 1 3 1

137 46.6580 46.66 26.3360 26.34 †25 72.4868 72.5%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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