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Who won the pre-season?

Posted on March 14, 2017March 17, 2017 by Max Barry

FootyMaths institute takes a stab at rating pre-season performance by adjusting for quality of opposition:

And as it happens, by the FMI method, St Kilda did indeed have a good pre-season series. And as another wake-up call to the competition, Essendon were next best, with Richmond and Brisbane all but a tie for third.

Read more at: FOOTYMATHS INSTITUTE: POST-JLT: BREAK

CategoriesFootyMaths Institute, Pre-season

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Wins % Range
1
 Sydney 17.6 137%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
2
 Fremantle 17.0 125%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–3
3
 Geelong 15.8 126%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–3
4
 Hawthorn 15.0 117%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4
5
 Brisbane Lions 13.9 116%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–7
6
 Gold Coast 13.6 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–8
7
 Adelaide 13.5 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–8
8
 Melbourne 13.4 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–8
9
 Collingwood 12.0 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–11
10
 Western Bulldogs 11.9 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–11
11
 St Kilda 11.4 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–11
12
 GWS 9.7 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–13
13
 Port Adelaide 9.0 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–14
14
 North Melbourne 9.1 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–15
15
 Carlton 8.1 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14–16
16
 West Coast 6.7 69%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–16
17
 Essendon 5.3 75%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
18
 Richmond 3.9 63%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After Round 10, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Sydney 9 1 – 152.2%
+8.6
1
2
 Fremantle 9 1 – 134.9%
+8.0
2
3
 Geelong 7 3 – 123.5%
+8.8
3
4
 Gold Coast 7 3 – 119.9%
+6.6
6
5
 Melbourne 7 3 – 107.6%
+6.4
8
6
 Hawthorn 6 3 1 110.2%
+8.5
4
7
 Brisbane Lions 6 4 – 116.6%
+7.9
5
8
 Adelaide 6 4 – 109.7%
+7.5
7
9
 St Kilda 5 5 – 112.8%
+6.4
11
10
 Western Bulldogs 5 5 – 91.7%
+6.9
10
11
 Collingwood 4 5 1 99.1%
+7.5
9
12
 North Melbourne 4 6 – 96.7%
+5.1
14
13
 GWS 4 6 – 90.1%
+5.7
12
14
 Port Adelaide 3 7 – 105.2%
+6.0
13
15
 West Coast 3 7 – 64.2%
+3.7
16
16
 Carlton 2 8 – 81.8%
+6.1
15
17
 Essendon 1 9 – 70.6%
+4.3
17
18
 Richmond 1 9 – 60.9%
+2.9
18

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5

73 24.9833 24.98 24.5583 24.56 81.1111 81.1%
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5

72 25.0416 25.04 25.9116 25.91 80.0000 80.0%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5

70 25.0044 25.00 25.8078 25.81 77.7778 77.8%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5

70 22.7337 22.73 26.2649 26.26 77.7778 77.8%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5

70 16.3767 16.38 25.9390 25.94 77.7778 77.8%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5

69 25.5700 25.57 25.4788 25.48 76.6667 76.7%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5

69 23.9527 23.95 26.7778 26.78 76.6667 76.7%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5

69 23.0995 23.10 25.9209 25.92 76.6667 76.7%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5

69 18.3928 18.39 26.6444 26.64 76.6667 76.7%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5

68 25.7117 25.71 26.5858 26.59 75.5556 75.6%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5

68 25.1631 25.16 26.2524 26.25 75.5556 75.6%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5

68 23.9265 23.93 26.2118 26.21 75.5556 75.6%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6

68 22.2272 22.23 26.1913 26.19 75.5556 75.6%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5

67 22.4018 22.40 26.4731 26.47 74.4444 74.4%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5

67 22.1761 22.18 27.8222 27.82 74.4444 74.4%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5

67 21.5898 21.59 26.7034 26.70 74.4444 74.4%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6

67 21.3059 21.31 26.5016 26.50 74.4444 74.4%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5

66 21.2905 21.29 27.5962 27.60 73.3333 73.3%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5

66 20.7475 20.75 26.3756 26.38 73.3333 73.3%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5

64 22.8569 22.86 25.8578 25.86 71.1111 71.1%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5

64 22.6842 22.68 27.3149 27.31 71.1111 71.1%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5

64 22.1286 22.13 26.5047 26.50 71.1111 71.1%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5

64 21.4586 21.46 27.1667 27.17 71.1111 71.1%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5

64 20.8724 20.87 26.8889 26.89 71.1111 71.1%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5

64 20.4207 20.42 28.8222 28.82 71.1111 71.1%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5

63 18.4143 18.41 26.7578 26.76 70.0000 70.0%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5

62 18.8282 18.83 26.9048 26.90 68.8889 68.9%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5

62 17.9008 17.90 26.8700 26.87 68.8889 68.9%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5

60 17.0750 17.07 27.1444 27.14 66.6667 66.7%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5

58 16.1254 16.13 27.4568 27.46 †9 71.6049 71.6%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5

48 18.6722 18.67 28.0846 28.08 †25 73.8462 73.8%

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