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Which Games Matter Most?

Posted on August 4, 2017April 3, 2018 by Max Barry

A hot new Arc take on which are the most significant games in terms of finals places:

Finals chances and top-four hopes are on the line for a lot of clubs this weekend. We look at how much each game matters for every team dreaming of playing in September.

Source: Footy Forensics AFL finals swing which games matter most

CategoriesThe Arc

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Wins % Range
1
 Western Bulldogs 16.0 130%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Gold Coast 14.7 123%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Hawthorn 14.3 121%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
4
 Geelong 13.7 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–6
5
 Brisbane Lions 13.4 117%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–6
6
 Sydney 13.4 116%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–7
7
 Fremantle 13.2 114%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–7
8
 Adelaide 12.6 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–10
9
 Collingwood 12.2 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
10
 Melbourne 10.8 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–13
11
 GWS 10.6 97%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–12
12
 St Kilda 10.3 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–15
13
 North Melbourne 10.1 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–14
14
 West Coast 9.7 83%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–16
15
 Port Adelaide 9.2 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14–15
16
 Carlton 9.4 87%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–16
17
 Essendon 6.8 75%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18
18
 Richmond 6.6 73%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18

After 2 games of Round 4, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Gold Coast 3∗ – – 191.0%
+11.7
2
2
 Western Bulldogs 3∗ – – 137.2%
+13.0
1
3
 North Melbourne 3 1 – 115.3%
+7.1
13
4
 Fremantle 2∗ 1 – 143.9%
+11.2
7
5
 Sydney 2∗ 1 – 139.5%
+11.4
6
6
 Hawthorn 2∗ 1 – 118.1%
+12.3
3
7
 Brisbane Lions 2 2 – 110.6%
+11.4
5
8
 Melbourne 2∗ 1 – 96.0%
+8.8
10
9
 Collingwood 2 2 – 93.1%
+10.2
9
10
 West Coast 2∗ 1 – 87.3%
+7.7
14
11
 Geelong 2∗ 1 – 86.7%
+11.7
4
12
 Port Adelaide 1∗ 2 – 105.5%
+8.2
15
13
 Adelaide 1∗ 2 – 100.0%
+11.6
8
14
 St Kilda 1 3 – 86.0%
+9.3
12
15
 Carlton 1 3 – 76.9%
+8.4
16
16
 GWS 1 3 – 76.9%
+9.6
11
17
 Essendon –∗ 3 – 61.8%
+6.8
17
18
 Richmond –∗ 3 – 56.9%
+6.6
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 1

24 4.3052 4.31 25.2063 25.21 80.0000 80.0%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 1

23 6.8399 6.84 23.0067 23.01 76.6667 76.7%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 1

23 6.6287 6.63 24.1577 24.16 76.6667 76.7%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 1

22 7.2428 7.24 24.2133 24.21 73.3333 73.3%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 1

22 6.6186 6.62 24.3267 24.33 73.3333 73.3%
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 1

22 6.5438 6.54 25.2870 25.29 73.3333 73.3%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 1

22 5.8183 5.82 24.3567 24.36 73.3333 73.3%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 1

22 5.8115 5.81 23.4667 23.47 73.3333 73.3%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 2

22 5.2378 5.24 25.3880 25.39 73.3333 73.3%
HBin

4 7 5 5 1

22 4.7875 4.79 25.9500 25.95 73.3333 73.3%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 1

21 6.8084 6.81 24.8223 24.82 70.0000 70.0%
s10

2 8 5 5 1

21 6.7364 6.74 24.4600 24.46 70.0000 70.0%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 1

21 6.6984 6.70 24.6733 24.67 70.0000 70.0%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 1

21 5.7051 5.71 24.6533 24.65 70.0000 70.0%
Graft

3 7 4 6 1

21 5.5648 5.56 24.8333 24.83 70.0000 70.0%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 1

21 4.5448 4.54 27.2000 27.20 70.0000 70.0%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 1

20 7.1051 7.11 25.0233 25.02 66.6667 66.7%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 1

20 5.3760 5.38 24.7997 24.80 66.6667 66.7%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 1

20 4.5903 4.59 26.6667 26.67 66.6667 66.7%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 1

20 4.5590 4.56 26.7353 26.74 66.6667 66.7%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 2

20 2.0454 2.05 29.4000 29.40 66.6667 66.7%
Punters

2 6 4 6 1

19 5.8291 5.83 24.4600 24.46 63.3333 63.3%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 1

19 5.7391 5.74 24.6403 24.64 63.3333 63.3%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 1

19 5.0485 5.05 25.7667 25.77 63.3333 63.3%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 1

19 3.9256 3.93 27.2700 27.27 63.3333 63.3%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 1

19 2.9409 2.94 27.3200 27.32 63.3333 63.3%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 1

18 5.6312 5.63 25.8787 25.88 60.0000 60.0%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 1

18 4.4746 4.47 25.8380 25.84 60.0000 60.0%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 1

18 2.8713 2.87 28.3000 28.30 60.0000 60.0%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5

17 0.6310 0.63 27.4286 27.43 †2 60.7143 60.7%
Massey Ratings

2 4

6 1.1606 1.16 35.5833 35.58 †18 50.0000 50.0%

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