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Which Games Matter Most?

Posted on August 4, 2017April 3, 2018 by Max Barry

A hot new Arc take on which are the most significant games in terms of finals places:

Finals chances and top-four hopes are on the line for a lot of clubs this weekend. We look at how much each game matters for every team dreaming of playing in September.

Source: Footy Forensics AFL finals swing which games matter most

CategoriesThe Arc

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Wins % Range
1
 Adelaide 17.4 146%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Geelong 16.5 141%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Collingwood 16.0 122%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–5
4
 Gold Coast 15.9 126%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–5
5
 Brisbane Lions 16.0 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–6
6
 Fremantle 15.5 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–6
7
 Hawthorn 15.0 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–9
8
 Western Bulldogs 14.4 141%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–9
9
 GWS 14.9 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
10
 Sydney 11.7 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
11
 Carlton 8.6 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–14
12
 St Kilda 8.9 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–13
13
 Port Adelaide 8.9 80%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–13
14
 Melbourne 8.0 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
15
 Essendon 6.9 72%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 North Melbourne 5.4 73%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
17
 Richmond 5.6 67%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
18
 West Coast 1.4 61%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 6 games of Round 22, 2025.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Adelaide 15∗ 5 – 144.1%
+2.4
1
2
 Geelong 15 6 – 139.8%
+1.5
2
3
 Collingwood 15 6 – 124.2%
+1.0
3
4
 Fremantle 15 6 – 112.7%
+0.5
6
5
 Brisbane Lions 14 6 1 111.3%
+1.5
5
6
 Gold Coast 14∗ 6 – 125.1%
+1.9
4
7
 Hawthorn 14 7 – 121.2%
+1.0
7
8
 GWS 13∗ 7 – 111.3%
+1.9
9
9
 Western Bulldogs 12∗ 8 – 137.3%
+2.4
8
10
 Sydney 11 10 – 95.3%
+0.7
10
11
 St Kilda 8 13 – 87.9%
+0.9
12
12
 Port Adelaide 8 13 – 80.5%
+0.9
13
13
 Melbourne 7∗ 13 – 95.0%
+1.0
14
14
 Carlton 7 14 – 91.4%
+1.6
11
15
 Essendon 6∗ 14 – 71.3%
+0.9
15
16
 Richmond 5 16 – 66.3%
+0.6
17
17
 North Melbourne 4∗ 15 1 73.4%
+0.9
16
18
 West Coast 1∗ 19 – 61.9%
+0.4
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 8 7 7 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 6 9 6 5 7 8 4

140 42.91 25.79 75.7%
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 7 7 8 5 7 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 7 9 5 7 7 8 5

139 40.97 25.81 75.1%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 8 7 8 5 7 6 8 5 6 5 5 6 4 7 9 5 6 7 8 5

139 39.36 26.74 75.1%
Punters

1 8 5 7 7 6 4 7 6 7 6 7 5 6 6 4 7 9 5 6 7 8 4

138 43.69 25.72 74.6%
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 8 6 6 4 6 4 4 6 9 6 6 7 8 4

138 41.51 25.62 74.6%
Aggregate

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 3 7 9 5 6 7 8 4

138 40.98 25.82 74.6%
AFL Lab

2 8 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 5 5 6 6 4 7 8 6 6 7 8 3

138 35.79 26.59 74.6%
Winnable

1 8 6 6 7 7 4 9 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 6 9 5 6 7 8 4

137 41.78 25.86 74.1%
s10

2 8 5 7 7 6 5 7 7 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 9 5 6 7 8 4

137 40.64 25.75 74.1%
ZaphBot

1 8 6 7 7 6 3 7 7 5 5 7 3 5 6 5 6 9 6 6 7 8 5

135 39.93 26.34 73.0%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 7 6 7 4 9 7 5 6 5 5 6 5 4 6 8 5 5 7 8 4

134 43.76 26.88 72.4%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 7 5 7 4 7 8 6 5 6 6 6 6 4 7 9 3 5 7 8 4

134 40.63 27.08 72.4%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 6 7 7 5 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 6 9 4 5 7 8 4

133 44.01 25.59 71.9%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 7 7 6 4 8 7 6 6 6 4 6 4 3 6 9 5 6 7 8 4

133 41.17 25.96 71.9%
Squiggle

1 7 5 8 7 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 4 4 7 9 6 5 7 8 3

133 37.20 26.38 71.9%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 6 7 6 4 7 6 6 6 6 4 6 4 5 6 9 6 5 7 8 4

132 44.76 25.34 71.4%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 6 7 6 4 6 7 7 6 6 5 6 4 4 6 9 5 5 7 8 4

132 43.72 25.39 71.4%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 7 7 7 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 4 3 7 9 4 6 7 8 4

132 37.60 26.47 71.4%
The Footycast

1 7 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 9 4 6 8 8 4

132 29.88 27.80 71.4%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 8 4 7 8 8 5

131 41.88 26.22 70.8%
Stattraction

2 7 4 8 6 6 4 8 7 6 5 5 4 6 6 4 6 9 4 5 6 8 4

130 38.35 26.63 70.3%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 7 6 8 4 7 8 7 5 5 4 6 5 3 6 9 3 6 7 8 4

130 36.78 26.86 70.3%
Graft

1 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 7 9 5 6 7 8 5

130 34.85 27.24 70.3%
footycharts

2 7 3 8 7 6 5 8 6 6 4 6 4 5 5 3 6 8 6 6 6 8 4

129 35.21 27.41 69.7%
Hyperion

1 7 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 5 3 7 4 4 6 4 6 8 6 8 8 7 5

129 34.46 27.82 69.7%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 6 7 6 4 8 7 6 4 5 4 4 5 4 7 9 5 7 7 8 4

128 35.57 27.00 69.2%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 6 7 6 6 6 8 5 3 6 4 6 6 4 6 9 4 7 8 8 4

128 21.04 29.29 69.2%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 6 4 3 6 9 3 5 8 8 5

124 34.58 27.87 67.0%

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