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The Return of Essendon

Posted on June 22, 2017June 22, 2017 by Max Barry

Footy Maths Institute has a neat graph on Essendon over the last decade or so:

Source: FOOTYMATHS INSTITUTE: 12. ALMOST PARITY

CategoriesFootyMaths Institute

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Wins % Range
1
Collingwood 18.0 128%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1
2
Geelong 16.3 134%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2
3
Adelaide 15.3 133%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3–4
4
Brisbane Lions 15.2 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3–5
5
Western Bulldogs 14.8 133%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3–7
6
Gold Coast 14.3 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
6–8
7
Hawthorn 14.4 114%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5–7
8
Fremantle 13.8 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
7–8
9
GWS 13.1 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
9
10
Sydney 10.5 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
10–11
11
Carlton 9.7 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
10–12
12
Port Adelaide 10.2 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
11–12
13
Melbourne 8.8 91%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
13–15
14
St Kilda 8.7 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
13–15
15
Essendon 8.9 79%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
13–15
16
North Melbourne 6.7 78%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16
17
Richmond 4.9 67%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17
18
West Coast 3.1 69%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18

After Round 16, 2025.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
Collingwood 13 2 – 135.8%
+5.0
1
2
Brisbane Lions 10 4 1 113.4%
+4.7
4
3
Adelaide 10 5 – 139.8%
+5.3
3
4
Geelong 10 5 – 127.5%
+6.3
2
5
Hawthorn 10 5 – 118.4%
+4.4
7
6
Fremantle 10 5 – 110.4%
+3.8
8
7
Western Bulldogs 9 6 – 131.5%
+5.8
5
8
Gold Coast 9∗ 5 – 120.3%
+5.3
6
9
GWS 9 6 – 107.6%
+4.1
9
10
Port Adelaide 7 8 – 88.6%
+3.2
12
11
Carlton 6 9 – 100.4%
+3.7
11
12
Sydney 6 9 – 92.1%
+4.5
10
13
Essendon 6∗ 8 – 77.5%
+2.9
15
14
Melbourne 5 10 – 86.7%
+3.8
13
15
St Kilda 5 10 – 86.2%
+3.7
14
16
North Melbourne 4 10 1 78.5%
+2.2
16
17
Richmond 3 12 – 64.8%
+1.9
17
18
West Coast 1 14 – 65.2%
+2.1
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 8 7 7 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 6

101 24.06 27.04 75.4%
AFL Lab

2 8 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 5 5 6 6 4 7

100 21.47 27.43 74.6%
Aggregate

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 3 7

99 23.38 26.85 73.9%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 8 7 8 5 7 6 8 5 6 5 5 6 4 7

99 23.36 27.56 73.9%
Punters

1 8 5 7 7 6 4 7 6 7 6 7 5 6 6 4 7

99 22.33 27.14 73.9%
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 7 7 8 5 7 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 7

98 24.91 26.62 73.1%
Winnable

1 8 6 6 7 7 4 9 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 6

98 24.63 26.69 73.1%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 7 5 7 4 7 8 6 5 6 6 6 6 4 7

98 23.25 28.35 73.1%
s10

2 8 5 7 7 6 5 7 7 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7

98 23.21 26.73 73.1%
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 8 6 6 4 6 4 4 6

98 23.14 26.76 73.1%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 7 6 7 4 9 7 5 6 5 5 6 5 4 6

97 22.97 27.99 72.4%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 6 7 7 5 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 6

96 25.20 26.51 71.6%
Squiggle

1 7 5 8 7 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 4 4 7

95 21.38 27.52 70.9%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 6 7 6 4 6 7 7 6 6 5 6 4 4 6

94 23.82 26.49 70.1%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 7 7 6 4 8 7 6 6 6 4 6 4 3 6

94 22.72 27.11 70.1%
Stattraction

2 7 4 8 6 6 4 8 7 6 5 5 4 6 6 4 6

94 21.54 27.58 70.1%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 7 7 7 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 4 3 7

94 20.61 26.99 70.1%
ZaphBot

1 8 6 7 7 6 3 7 7 5 5 7 3 5 6 5 6

94 20.58 27.55 70.1%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 6 7 6 4 7 6 6 6 6 4 6 4 5 6

93 23.52 26.43 69.4%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 7 6 8 4 7 8 7 5 5 4 6 5 3 6

93 23.50 27.33 69.4%
The Footycast

1 7 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7

93 15.25 29.15 69.4%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 4 7

91 22.29 27.35 67.9%
footycharts

2 7 3 8 7 6 5 8 6 6 4 6 4 5 5 3 6

91 20.45 28.24 67.9%
Graft

1 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 7

90 19.26 28.63 67.2%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 6 7 6 4 8 7 6 4 5 4 4 5 4 7

88 20.32 27.61 65.7%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 6 7 6 6 6 8 5 3 6 4 6 6 4 6

88 11.66 29.20 65.7%
Hyperion

1 7 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 5 3 7 4 4 6 4 6

87 18.03 28.80 64.9%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 6 4 3 6

86 17.41 28.29 64.2%

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