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The Return of Essendon

Posted on June 22, 2017June 22, 2017 by Max Barry

Footy Maths Institute has a neat graph on Essendon over the last decade or so:

Source: FOOTYMATHS INSTITUTE: 12. ALMOST PARITY

CategoriesFootyMaths Institute

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Wins % Range
1
 Collingwood 17.5 133%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
2
 Geelong 16.6 133%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
3
 Adelaide 15.3 129%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–5
4
 Brisbane Lions 15.2 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–5
5
 Gold Coast 14.6 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–6
6
 Western Bulldogs 14.1 130%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–8
7
 Hawthorn 13.6 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–8
8
 Fremantle 13.3 108%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–8
9
 GWS 12.0 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9
10
 Carlton 10.9 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–11
11
 Sydney 10.1 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–11
12
 St Kilda 9.6 91%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–15
13
 Melbourne 9.6 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–15
14
 Essendon 9.8 83%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–15
15
 Port Adelaide 9.6 85%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–15
16
 North Melbourne 6.4 78%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
17
 Richmond 5.4 70%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
18
 West Coast 3.5 68%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 7 games of Round 13, 2025.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Collingwood 10∗ 2 – 136.9%
+7.5
1
2
 Brisbane Lions 9 3 1 112.6%
+5.7
4
3
 Adelaide 9 4 – 137.2%
+6.3
3
4
 Geelong 9 4 – 126.2%
+7.6
2
5
 Gold Coast 8∗ 4 – 123.2%
+6.6
5
6
 Hawthorn 8 5 – 111.8%
+5.6
7
7
 GWS 7 6 – 107.2%
+5.0
9
8
 Fremantle 7∗ 5 – 106.4%
+6.3
8
9
 Western Bulldogs 6∗ 6 – 122.1%
+8.1
6
10
 Essendon 6∗ 6 – 84.9%
+3.8
14
11
 Carlton 5∗ 7 – 103.4%
+5.9
10
12
 St Kilda 5∗ 7 – 93.1%
+4.6
12
13
 Sydney 5 8 – 90.1%
+5.1
11
14
 Melbourne 5∗ 7 – 87.6%
+4.6
13
15
 Port Adelaide 5∗ 7 – 81.5%
+4.6
15
16
 North Melbourne 3∗ 8 1 79.9%
+2.9
16
17
 Richmond 3 10 – 69.4%
+2.4
17
18
 West Coast 1 12 – 65.3%
+2.5
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 8 7 7 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 5

84 17.79 27.22 75.0%
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 8 6 6 4 5

83 17.70 26.93 74.1%
Winnable

1 8 6 6 7 7 4 9 7 6 6 6 4 5

82 18.86 26.83 73.2%
AFL Lab

2 8 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 5 5 5

82 17.39 27.44 73.2%
Aggregate

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 6 6 6 5 5

82 17.37 26.96 73.2%
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 7 7 8 5 7 7 6 6 6 4 5

81 18.87 26.91 72.3%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 8 7 8 5 7 6 8 5 6 5 4

81 17.93 27.44 72.3%
s10

2 8 5 7 7 6 5 7 7 6 5 6 5 5

81 17.61 26.87 72.3%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 7 6 7 4 9 7 5 6 5 5 5

81 15.77 28.44 72.3%
Punters

1 8 5 7 7 6 4 7 6 7 6 7 5 5

81 15.59 27.35 72.3%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 6 7 7 5 7 6 6 5 6 5 5

80 20.12 26.55 71.4%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 7 7 6 4 8 7 6 6 6 4 5

80 17.19 27.04 71.4%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 7 5 7 4 7 8 6 5 6 6 5

80 15.68 28.61 71.4%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 6 7 6 4 6 7 7 6 6 5 5

79 18.97 26.62 70.5%
Squiggle

1 7 5 8 7 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5

79 15.94 27.70 70.5%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 7 7 7 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 5

79 14.29 27.07 70.5%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 7 6 8 4 7 8 7 5 5 4 5

78 17.57 27.19 69.6%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 6 7 6 4 7 6 6 6 6 4 5

77 16.59 26.80 68.8%
Stattraction

2 7 4 8 6 6 4 8 7 6 5 5 4 5

77 15.02 27.77 68.8%
footycharts

2 7 3 8 7 6 5 8 6 6 4 6 4 4

76 15.73 28.00 67.9%
ZaphBot

1 8 6 7 7 6 3 7 7 5 5 7 3 4

76 15.02 28.21 67.9%
The Footycast

1 7 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 6 5 6 5 5

76 9.84 29.32 67.9%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 5 6 5 5

74 16.19 27.58 66.1%
Graft

1 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 6 5 5 5 4

73 12.98 28.89 65.2%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 5

72 12.81 28.26 64.3%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 6 7 6 4 8 7 6 4 5 4 3

71 13.68 27.78 63.4%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 6 7 6 6 6 8 5 3 6 4 5

71 8.52 29.18 63.4%
Hyperion

1 7 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 5 3 7 4 3

70 11.92 28.96 62.5%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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