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Posted on February 9, 2017March 17, 2017 by Max Barry

Welcome to Squiggle! The idea is to gather the most interesting AFL modeling and data analysis from around the web.

Participating sites:

  • The Arc
  • Figuring Footy
  • Matter of Stats
  • FootyMaths Institute

Squiggle bots continually poll these sites and other sources for the latest probability estimates, creating Squiggle Dials for an at-a-glance summary of who’s tipping what.

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Wins % Range
1
 Collingwood 17.9 129%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Geelong 16.2 134%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Adelaide 15.2 132%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–5
4
 Brisbane Lions 15.2 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–5
5
 Western Bulldogs 14.7 134%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–7
6
 Gold Coast 14.3 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–8
7
 Hawthorn 14.4 114%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–8
8
 Fremantle 13.9 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–8
9
 GWS 13.1 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9
10
 Sydney 10.6 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–11
11
 Carlton 9.9 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–12
12
 Port Adelaide 10.0 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–13
13
 St Kilda 8.9 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
14
 Melbourne 8.7 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–15
15
 Essendon 8.9 78%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–15
16
 North Melbourne 6.9 79%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 Richmond 5.1 68%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
18
 West Coast 3.1 68%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After Round 16, 2025.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Collingwood 13 2 – 135.8%
+4.9
1
2
 Brisbane Lions 10 4 1 113.4%
+4.7
4
3
 Adelaide 10 5 – 139.8%
+5.2
3
4
 Geelong 10 5 – 127.5%
+6.2
2
5
 Hawthorn 10 5 – 118.4%
+4.4
7
6
 Fremantle 10 5 – 110.4%
+3.9
8
7
 Western Bulldogs 9 6 – 131.5%
+5.7
5
8
 Gold Coast 9∗ 5 – 120.3%
+5.3
6
9
 GWS 9 6 – 107.6%
+4.1
9
10
 Port Adelaide 7 8 – 88.6%
+3.0
12
11
 Carlton 6 9 – 100.4%
+3.9
11
12
 Sydney 6 9 – 92.1%
+4.6
10
13
 Essendon 6∗ 8 – 77.5%
+2.9
15
14
 Melbourne 5 10 – 86.7%
+3.7
14
15
 St Kilda 5 10 – 86.2%
+3.9
13
16
 North Melbourne 4 10 1 78.5%
+2.4
16
17
 Richmond 3 12 – 64.8%
+2.1
17
18
 West Coast 1 14 – 65.2%
+2.1
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 8 7 7 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 6

101 24.06 27.04 75.4%
AFL Lab

2 8 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 5 5 6 6 4 7

100 21.47 27.43 74.6%
Aggregate

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 3 7

99 23.38 26.85 73.9%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 8 7 8 5 7 6 8 5 6 5 5 6 4 7

99 23.36 27.56 73.9%
Punters

1 8 5 7 7 6 4 7 6 7 6 7 5 6 6 4 7

99 22.33 27.14 73.9%
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 7 7 8 5 7 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 7

98 24.91 26.62 73.1%
Winnable

1 8 6 6 7 7 4 9 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 6

98 24.63 26.69 73.1%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 7 5 7 4 7 8 6 5 6 6 6 6 4 7

98 23.25 28.35 73.1%
s10

2 8 5 7 7 6 5 7 7 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7

98 23.21 26.73 73.1%
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 8 6 6 4 6 4 4 6

98 23.14 26.76 73.1%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 7 6 7 4 9 7 5 6 5 5 6 5 4 6

97 22.97 27.99 72.4%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 6 7 7 5 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 6

96 25.20 26.51 71.6%
Squiggle

1 7 5 8 7 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 4 4 7

95 21.38 27.52 70.9%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 6 7 6 4 6 7 7 6 6 5 6 4 4 6

94 23.82 26.49 70.1%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 7 7 6 4 8 7 6 6 6 4 6 4 3 6

94 22.72 27.11 70.1%
Stattraction

2 7 4 8 6 6 4 8 7 6 5 5 4 6 6 4 6

94 21.54 27.58 70.1%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 7 7 7 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 4 3 7

94 20.61 26.99 70.1%
ZaphBot

1 8 6 7 7 6 3 7 7 5 5 7 3 5 6 5 6

94 20.58 27.55 70.1%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 6 7 6 4 7 6 6 6 6 4 6 4 5 6

93 23.52 26.43 69.4%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 7 6 8 4 7 8 7 5 5 4 6 5 3 6

93 23.50 27.33 69.4%
The Footycast

1 7 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7

93 15.25 29.15 69.4%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 4 7

91 22.29 27.35 67.9%
footycharts

2 7 3 8 7 6 5 8 6 6 4 6 4 5 5 3 6

91 20.45 28.24 67.9%
Graft

1 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 7

90 19.26 28.63 67.2%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 6 7 6 4 8 7 6 4 5 4 4 5 4 7

88 20.32 27.61 65.7%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 6 7 6 6 6 8 5 3 6 4 6 6 4 6

88 11.66 29.20 65.7%
Hyperion

1 7 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 5 3 7 4 4 6 4 6

87 18.03 28.80 64.9%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 6 4 3 6

86 17.41 28.29 64.2%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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