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Site launch

Posted on February 9, 2017March 17, 2017 by Max Barry

Welcome to Squiggle! The idea is to gather the most interesting AFL modeling and data analysis from around the web.

Participating sites:

  • The Arc
  • Figuring Footy
  • Matter of Stats
  • FootyMaths Institute

Squiggle bots continually poll these sites and other sources for the latest probability estimates, creating Squiggle Dials for an at-a-glance summary of who’s tipping what.

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Wins % Range
1
Adelaide 18.0 139%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1
2
Geelong 17.0 141%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2
3
Brisbane Lions 16.5 114%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3
4
Collingwood 16.0 122%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
4
5
GWS 16.0 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5
6
Fremantle 16.0 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
6
7
Gold Coast 15.0 125%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
7
8
Hawthorn 15.0 121%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
8
9
Western Bulldogs 14.0 137%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
9
10
Sydney 12.0 97%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
10
11
Carlton 9.0 97%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
11
12
St Kilda 9.0 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12
13
Port Adelaide 9.0 80%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
13
14
Melbourne 7.0 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
14
15
Essendon 6.0 70%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15
16
North Melbourne 5.5 76%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16
17
Richmond 5.0 66%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17
18
West Coast 1.0 60%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18

After Round 26, 2025.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
Adelaide 18 5 – 139.3%
+0.0
1
2
Geelong 17 6 – 141.5%
+0.0
2
3
Brisbane Lions 16 6 1 114.2%
+0.0
3
4
Collingwood 16 7 – 122.4%
+0.0
4
5
GWS 16 7 – 115.3%
+0.0
5
6
Fremantle 16 7 – 109.0%
+0.0
6
7
Gold Coast 15 8 – 124.9%
+0.0
7
8
Hawthorn 15 8 – 120.9%
+0.0
8
9
Western Bulldogs 14 9 – 137.0%
+0.0
9
10
Sydney 12 11 – 97.0%
+0.0
10
11
Carlton 9 14 – 96.7%
+0.0
11
12
St Kilda 9 14 – 88.5%
+0.0
12
13
Port Adelaide 9 14 – 79.8%
+0.0
13
14
Melbourne 7 16 – 93.3%
+0.0
14
15
Essendon 6 17 – 69.5%
+0.0
15
16
North Melbourne 5 17 1 76.3%
+0.0
16
17
Richmond 5 18 – 66.0%
+0.0
17
18
West Coast 1 22 – 60.1%
+0.0
18

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 7 7 8 5 7 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 7 9 5 7 7 8 8 8 8 3 1 1 0

163 48.0936 48.09 25.9680 25.97 75.4630 75.5%
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 8 7 7 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 6 9 6 5 7 8 7 7 8 1 1 1 0

161 48.4613 48.46 26.3058 26.31 74.5370 74.5%
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 8 6 6 4 6 4 4 6 9 6 6 7 8 7 7 8 2 2 1 0

161 46.9400 46.94 26.0003 26.00 74.5370 74.5%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 8 7 8 5 7 6 8 5 6 5 5 6 4 7 9 5 6 7 8 8 6 8 2 1 1 0

160 45.1104 45.11 27.0370 27.04 74.0741 74.1%
Punters

1 8 5 7 7 6 4 7 6 7 6 7 5 6 6 4 7 9 5 6 7 8 7 7 8 1 1 1 0

159 51.7316 51.73 26.1569 26.16 73.6111 73.6%
Winnable

1 8 6 6 7 7 4 9 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 6 9 5 6 7 8 7 7 8 2 1 1 0

159 48.0301 48.03 26.2402 26.24 73.6111 73.6%
Aggregate

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 3 7 9 5 6 7 8 7 7 8 1 1 1 0

159 47.6763 47.68 26.2407 26.24 73.6111 73.6%
AFL Lab

2 8 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 5 5 6 6 4 7 8 6 6 7 8 6 6 8 2 1 1 0

159 41.8460 41.85 26.6062 26.61 73.6111 73.6%
s10

2 8 5 7 7 6 5 7 7 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 9 5 6 7 8 7 7 8 1 1 1 0

158 47.7363 47.74 26.0725 26.07 73.1481 73.1%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 7 5 7 4 7 8 6 5 6 6 6 6 4 7 9 3 5 7 8 7 7 8 2 1 2 0

157 46.5408 46.54 27.6343 27.63 72.6852 72.7%
ZaphBot

1 8 6 7 7 6 3 7 7 5 5 7 3 5 6 5 6 9 6 6 7 8 8 7 7 1 1 2 0

156 47.1341 47.13 26.3241 26.32 72.2222 72.2%
Stattraction

2 7 4 8 6 6 4 8 7 6 5 5 4 6 6 4 6 9 4 5 6 8 7 8 8 3 1 2 0

155 45.2877 45.29 27.0762 27.08 71.7593 71.8%
Squiggle

1 7 5 8 7 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 4 4 7 9 6 5 7 8 6 8 8 1 1 1 0

155 44.0639 44.06 26.7647 26.76 71.7593 71.8%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 6 7 7 5 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 6 9 4 5 7 8 7 7 7 2 1 1 0

154 50.2490 50.25 26.0363 26.04 71.2963 71.3%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 8 4 7 8 8 8 8 8 1 1 2 0

154 50.0600 50.06 26.5324 26.53 71.2963 71.3%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 7 6 7 4 9 7 5 6 5 5 6 5 4 6 8 5 5 7 8 7 7 7 2 0 1 0

154 46.9503 46.95 27.9722 27.97 71.2963 71.3%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 7 7 6 4 8 7 6 6 6 4 6 4 3 6 9 5 6 7 8 7 7 8 1 1 1 0

154 46.5200 46.52 26.4090 26.41 71.2963 71.3%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 7 7 7 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 4 3 7 9 4 6 7 8 7 7 7 2 1 2 0

154 45.5319 45.53 26.8519 26.85 71.2963 71.3%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 6 7 6 4 7 6 6 6 6 4 6 4 5 6 9 6 5 7 8 7 7 8 2 0 1 0

153 50.3366 50.34 26.0007 26.00 70.8333 70.8%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 6 7 6 4 6 7 7 6 6 5 6 4 4 6 9 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 1 1 1 0

153 50.1084 50.11 25.8449 25.84 70.8333 70.8%
Hyperion

1 7 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 5 3 7 4 4 6 4 6 8 6 8 8 7 8 7 8 1 2 2 1

153 42.9920 42.99 27.6852 27.69 70.8333 70.8%
Graft

1 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 7 9 5 6 7 8 8 7 8 1 1 1 0

151 40.4665 40.47 27.7407 27.74 69.9074 69.9%
The Footycast

1 7 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 9 4 6 8 8 7 7 8 1 0 0

151 35.7249 35.72 27.8425 27.84 †2 70.5607 70.6%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 6 7 6 4 8 7 6 4 5 4 4 5 4 7 9 5 7 7 8 7 6 8 2 1 2 0

150 43.8748 43.87 27.0602 27.06 69.4444 69.4%
footycharts

2 7 3 8 7 6 5 8 6 6 4 6 4 5 5 3 6 8 6 6 6 8 7 7 8 2 0

149 40.5878 40.59 27.5907 27.59 †4 70.2830 70.3%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 6 7 6 6 6 8 5 3 6 4 6 6 4 6 9 4 7 8 8 7 7 8 1 1 1

149 25.2310 25.23 29.0698 29.07 †1 69.3023 69.3%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 7 6 8 4 7 8 7 5 5 4 6 5 3 6 9 3 6 7 8 7 7 8

148 44.1782 44.18 26.9371 26.94 †9 71.4976 71.5%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 6 4 3 6 9 3 5 8 8 8 6 6 3 2 1

145 39.9262 39.93 28.0767 28.08 †1 67.4419 67.4%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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