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Posted on February 9, 2017March 17, 2017 by Max Barry

Welcome to Squiggle! The idea is to gather the most interesting AFL modeling and data analysis from around the web.

Participating sites:

  • The Arc
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  • Matter of Stats
  • FootyMaths Institute

Squiggle bots continually poll these sites and other sources for the latest probability estimates, creating Squiggle Dials for an at-a-glance summary of who’s tipping what.

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Wins % Range
1
 Adelaide 16.6 139%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
2
 Collingwood 17.0 129%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–3
3
 Brisbane Lions 16.4 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–3
4
 Geelong 15.9 132%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4
5
 Gold Coast 14.8 117%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–6
6
 Hawthorn 14.8 116%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–9
7
 GWS 14.7 114%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–8
8
 Fremantle 14.9 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–8
9
 Western Bulldogs 13.7 131%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
10
 Sydney 11.6 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
11
 Port Adelaide 9.7 87%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
12
 Carlton 9.2 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
13
 Melbourne 8.4 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13
14
 St Kilda 7.7 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14–15
15
 Essendon 7.5 74%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14–15
16
 North Melbourne 6.1 77%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
17
 Richmond 6.2 69%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
18
 West Coast 1.9 63%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 0 games of Round 20, 2025.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Collingwood 14 4 – 133.7%
+3.0
2
2
 Brisbane Lions 13 4 1 116.6%
+2.9
3
3
 Adelaide 13 5 – 139.6%
+3.6
1
4
 Geelong 12 6 – 128.2%
+3.9
4
5
 Hawthorn 12 6 – 119.0%
+2.8
6
6
 GWS 12 6 – 116.0%
+2.7
7
7
 Fremantle 12 6 – 108.9%
+2.9
8
8
 Gold Coast 11∗ 6 – 115.5%
+3.8
5
9
 Western Bulldogs 10 8 – 127.4%
+3.7
9
10
 Sydney 9 9 – 96.5%
+2.6
10
11
 Port Adelaide 8 10 – 88.0%
+1.7
11
12
 Carlton 7 11 – 94.6%
+2.2
12
13
 Melbourne 6 12 – 89.7%
+2.4
13
14
 Essendon 6∗ 11 – 75.0%
+1.5
15
15
 St Kilda 5 13 – 85.3%
+2.7
14
16
 Richmond 5 13 – 68.5%
+1.2
17
17
 North Melbourne 4 13 1 76.1%
+1.6
16
18
 West Coast 1 17 – 63.6%
+0.9
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 8 7 7 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 6 9 6 5

121 32.28 25.40 75.2%
AFL Lab

2 8 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 5 5 6 6 4 7 8 6 6

120 27.65 25.97 74.5%
Punters

1 8 5 7 7 6 4 7 6 7 6 7 5 6 6 4 7 9 5 6

119 31.91 25.21 73.9%
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 7 7 8 5 7 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 7 9 5 7

119 31.91 25.16 73.9%
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 8 6 6 4 6 4 4 6 9 6 6

119 31.10 25.21 73.9%
Aggregate

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 3 7 9 5 6

119 30.89 25.28 73.9%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 8 7 8 5 7 6 8 5 6 5 5 6 4 7 9 5 6

119 30.44 26.10 73.9%
Winnable

1 8 6 6 7 7 4 9 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 6 9 5 6

118 31.74 25.33 73.3%
s10

2 8 5 7 7 6 5 7 7 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 9 5 6

118 30.80 25.18 73.3%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 7 6 7 4 9 7 5 6 5 5 6 5 4 6 8 5 5

115 32.16 26.08 71.4%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 7 5 7 4 7 8 6 5 6 6 6 6 4 7 9 3 5

115 29.90 26.73 71.4%
ZaphBot

1 8 6 7 7 6 3 7 7 5 5 7 3 5 6 5 6 9 6 6

115 29.21 25.84 71.4%
Squiggle

1 7 5 8 7 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 4 4 7 9 6 5

115 28.08 25.91 71.4%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 6 7 7 5 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 6 9 4 5

114 33.31 24.87 70.8%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 7 7 6 4 8 7 6 6 6 4 6 4 3 6 9 5 6

114 30.42 25.63 70.8%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 6 7 6 4 7 6 6 6 6 4 6 4 5 6 9 6 5

113 32.00 24.96 70.2%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 6 7 6 4 6 7 7 6 6 5 6 4 4 6 9 5 5

113 31.86 24.93 70.2%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 7 7 7 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 4 3 7 9 4 6

113 27.26 25.70 70.2%
Stattraction

2 7 4 8 6 6 4 8 7 6 5 5 4 6 6 4 6 9 4 5

112 28.44 25.97 69.6%
The Footycast

1 7 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 9 4 6

112 21.46 27.49 69.6%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 7 6 8 4 7 8 7 5 5 4 6 5 3 6 9 3 6

111 28.31 26.10 68.9%
footycharts

2 7 3 8 7 6 5 8 6 6 4 6 4 5 5 3 6 8 6 6

111 26.56 26.75 68.9%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 8 4 7

110 30.56 25.73 68.3%
Graft

1 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 7 9 5 6

110 25.59 26.96 68.3%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 6 7 6 4 8 7 6 4 5 4 4 5 4 7 9 5 7

109 27.63 25.94 67.7%
Hyperion

1 7 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 5 3 7 4 4 6 4 6 8 6 8

109 25.90 27.18 67.7%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 6 7 6 6 6 8 5 3 6 4 6 6 4 6 9 4 7

108 15.62 28.23 67.1%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 6 4 3 6 9 3 5

103 23.83 27.16 64.0%

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