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Posted on February 9, 2017March 17, 2017 by Max Barry

Welcome to Squiggle! The idea is to gather the most interesting AFL modeling and data analysis from around the web.

Participating sites:

  • The Arc
  • Figuring Footy
  • Matter of Stats
  • FootyMaths Institute

Squiggle bots continually poll these sites and other sources for the latest probability estimates, creating Squiggle Dials for an at-a-glance summary of who’s tipping what.

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Wins % Range
1
 Sydney 17.0 142%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
2
 Hawthorn 16.1 126%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–3
3
 Fremantle 16.2 122%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–4
4
 Brisbane Lions 14.5 124%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
5
 Geelong 13.9 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5
6
 Gold Coast 12.8 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–8
7
 Collingwood 12.6 108%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–7
8
 Adelaide 12.3 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–10
9
 Western Bulldogs 12.2 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–11
10
 Melbourne 12.1 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–11
11
 St Kilda 11.5 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–12
12
 GWS 10.9 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–13
13
 Port Adelaide 10.2 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–14
14
 North Melbourne 10.1 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–14
15
 Carlton 7.4 86%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–16
16
 Essendon 5.9 75%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
17
 West Coast 6.1 66%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–18
18
 Richmond 4.9 65%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18

After 1 game of Round 9, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Fremantle 8 1 – 131.6%
+8.2
3
2
 Sydney 7∗ 1 – 165.5%
+10.0
1
3
 Hawthorn 6 2 1 116.8%
+9.6
2
4
 Brisbane Lions 5∗ 3 – 126.0%
+9.5
4
5
 Gold Coast 5∗ 3 – 116.0%
+7.8
6
6
 Geelong 5∗ 3 – 114.6%
+8.9
5
7
 Melbourne 5∗ 3 – 100.2%
+7.1
10
8
 Collingwood 4∗ 3 1 108.6%
+8.1
7
9
 St Kilda 4∗ 4 – 114.9%
+7.5
11
10
 North Melbourne 4∗ 4 – 106.1%
+6.1
14
11
 Adelaide 4∗ 4 – 96.6%
+8.3
8
12
 Western Bulldogs 4∗ 4 – 91.5%
+8.2
9
13
 Port Adelaide 3∗ 5 – 110.9%
+7.2
13
14
 GWS 3∗ 5 – 88.2%
+7.9
12
15
 West Coast 2∗ 6 – 59.3%
+4.1
17
16
 Carlton 1∗ 7 – 78.1%
+6.4
15
17
 Essendon 1∗ 7 – 70.2%
+4.9
16
18
 Richmond 1∗ 7 – 60.0%
+3.9
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 1

61 19.7938 19.79 24.8255 24.83 83.5616 83.6%
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 0

59 19.9044 19.90 26.0879 26.09 80.8219 80.8%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 0

58 13.3084 13.31 25.8803 25.88 79.4521 79.5%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 1

57 20.2688 20.27 25.5786 25.58 78.0822 78.1%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 1

57 20.1106 20.11 26.1647 26.16 78.0822 78.1%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 0

57 18.2748 18.27 26.5262 26.53 78.0822 78.1%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 0

56 20.7783 20.78 26.2879 26.29 76.7123 76.7%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 1

56 19.5011 19.50 26.3899 26.39 76.7123 76.7%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 1

56 19.4647 19.46 27.2603 27.26 76.7123 76.7%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 1

56 18.3664 18.37 26.3362 26.34 76.7123 76.7%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 1

56 13.6649 13.66 27.4247 27.42 76.7123 76.7%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 0

55 20.1814 20.18 27.0277 27.03 75.3425 75.3%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 1

55 18.8163 18.82 26.3474 26.35 75.3425 75.3%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 0

55 17.8659 17.87 26.8512 26.85 75.3425 75.3%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 0

55 17.0753 17.08 26.3700 26.37 75.3425 75.3%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 1

54 18.3897 18.39 27.7175 27.72 73.9726 74.0%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 1

54 17.6700 17.67 27.6438 27.64 73.9726 74.0%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 1

54 16.7100 16.71 27.6364 27.64 73.9726 74.0%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 1

54 15.6801 15.68 27.0041 27.00 73.9726 74.0%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 1

52 17.7880 17.79 26.7378 26.74 71.2329 71.2%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 0

52 17.5834 17.58 27.3564 27.36 71.2329 71.2%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 0

52 16.7103 16.71 27.4521 27.45 71.2329 71.2%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 0

52 16.6793 16.68 27.8356 27.84 71.2329 71.2%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 1

51 17.2939 17.29 26.9914 26.99 69.8630 69.9%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 1

51 16.1104 16.11 29.3562 29.36 69.8630 69.9%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 1

51 15.1376 15.14 27.3252 27.33 69.8630 69.9%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 1

51 14.3398 14.34 27.5740 27.57 69.8630 69.9%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 1

51 14.3060 14.31 27.3863 27.39 69.8630 69.9%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 1

47 13.5664 13.57 27.4795 27.48 64.3836 64.4%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 1

45 11.4218 11.42 28.4219 28.42 †9 70.3125 70.3%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 1

35 13.1506 13.15 29.1667 29.17 †25 72.9167 72.9%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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