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Posted on February 9, 2017March 17, 2017 by Max Barry

Welcome to Squiggle! The idea is to gather the most interesting AFL modeling and data analysis from around the web.

Participating sites:

  • The Arc
  • Figuring Footy
  • Matter of Stats
  • FootyMaths Institute

Squiggle bots continually poll these sites and other sources for the latest probability estimates, creating Squiggle Dials for an at-a-glance summary of who’s tipping what.

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Wins % Range
1
Fremantle 18.7 137%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1
2
Sydney 17.4 132%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2
3
Hawthorn 15.1 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3–4
4
Brisbane Lions 14.7 116%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3–5
5
Adelaide 14.2 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5–6
6
Geelong 14.0 122%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
4–7
7
Melbourne 13.9 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
6–7
8
Western Bulldogs 12.8 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
8
9
Collingwood 12.0 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
9
10
Carlton 11.3 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
10–12
11
St Kilda 10.9 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
10–12
12
GWS 10.8 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
11–13
13
Gold Coast 10.0 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
13–14
14
North Melbourne 10.1 87%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
11–15
15
Port Adelaide 9.2 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
13–15
16
West Coast 5.9 72%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16
17
Richmond 3.5 64%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17
18
Essendon 2.4 67%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18

After Round 17, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
Fremantle 14 2 – 141.6%
+4.7
1
2
Sydney 13 3 – 136.9%
+4.4
2
3
Hawthorn 10 5 1 110.0%
+4.6
3
4
Brisbane Lions 10 6 – 111.7%
+4.7
4
5
Adelaide 10 6 – 111.4%
+4.2
5
6
Melbourne 10 6 – 106.3%
+3.9
7
7
Geelong 9 7 – 117.1%
+5.0
6
8
Western Bulldogs 9 7 – 90.8%
+3.8
8
9
Collingwood 8 7 1 104.5%
+3.5
9
10
Carlton 8 8 – 96.0%
+3.3
10
11
North Melbourne 8 8 – 91.1%
+2.1
14
12
St Kilda 7 9 – 105.5%
+3.9
11
13
GWS 7 9 – 100.8%
+3.8
12
14
Gold Coast 7 9 – 100.7%
+3.0
13
15
Port Adelaide 6 10 – 102.5%
+3.2
15
16
West Coast 4 12 – 71.5%
+1.9
16
17
Richmond 2 14 – 63.3%
+1.5
17
18
Essendon 1 15 – 69.0%
+1.4
18

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 5

109 33.4928 33.49 25.1786 25.18 75.6944 75.7%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5

107 32.3866 32.39 24.8454 24.85 74.3056 74.3%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 6 5 5 5

107 23.3574 23.36 25.3054 25.31 74.3056 74.3%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 6 6 6

106 33.1034 33.10 26.0833 26.08 73.6111 73.6%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5

105 33.6623 33.66 25.4328 25.43 72.9167 72.9%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 6 5 6 5

104 34.4194 34.42 25.2803 25.28 72.2222 72.2%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 5

104 32.3621 32.36 25.5956 25.60 72.2222 72.2%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5

104 32.1707 32.17 25.3635 25.36 72.2222 72.2%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 5

104 28.6364 28.64 26.1765 26.18 72.2222 72.2%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5

103 34.4830 34.48 25.7460 25.75 71.5278 71.5%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 7 6 5 5

103 30.0833 30.08 25.6976 25.70 71.5278 71.5%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 5

102 32.3689 32.37 26.8681 26.87 70.8333 70.8%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5

102 31.5500 31.55 26.1808 26.18 70.8333 70.8%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6

102 28.3068 28.31 25.8042 25.80 70.8333 70.8%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5 6 5 6 6

101 32.5694 32.57 25.2176 25.22 70.1389 70.1%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 6 5 6 5

101 32.5548 32.55 26.2846 26.28 70.1389 70.1%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6

101 31.0279 31.03 26.3958 26.40 70.1389 70.1%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 6 5 5

101 27.1219 27.12 27.3373 27.34 †1 70.6294 70.6%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5 5 5 6 5

100 31.9308 31.93 25.5451 25.55 69.4444 69.4%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 5

100 30.5282 30.53 25.7640 25.76 69.4444 69.4%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 6

99 25.4867 25.49 26.0167 26.02 68.7500 68.8%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 5 4 6 5

98 30.1385 30.14 27.0385 27.04 68.0556 68.1%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4 5 5 5 6

98 28.4251 28.43 25.6965 25.70 68.0556 68.1%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 4 5 5

97 30.8751 30.88 25.6944 25.69 67.3611 67.4%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4 5 4 5 5

97 25.7542 25.75 26.7162 26.72 67.3611 67.4%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4 5 5 5 5

96 28.9459 28.95 27.3542 27.35 66.6667 66.7%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 5 5 5

96 27.4633 27.46 26.1626 26.16 66.6667 66.7%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5 5 6 6 5

95 25.0089 25.01 27.0347 27.03 65.9722 66.0%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

93 25.3764 25.38 26.5333 26.53 †9 68.8889 68.9%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4 5

87 22.0907 22.09 26.9587 26.96 †23 71.9008 71.9%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5

83 27.6252 27.63 26.7521 26.75 †25 69.7479 69.7%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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