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New model: The Flag

Posted on March 9, 2020March 9, 2020 by Max Barry

The second new model for season 2020 is The Flag, which runs numbers on a truly bewildering number of different sports and leagues, including AFL. You can also find author Nick Fredriksson on Twitter.

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Wins % Range
1
 Collingwood 18.5 133%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Geelong 16.4 137%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Adelaide 15.4 135%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–5
4
 Western Bulldogs 15.1 136%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–5
5
 Brisbane Lions 15.3 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–5
6
 Gold Coast 14.7 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–7
7
 Hawthorn 14.5 114%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–7
8
 Fremantle 13.9 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
9
 GWS 13.5 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
10
 Sydney 10.5 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
11
 Port Adelaide 10.0 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
12
 Carlton 9.4 97%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
13
 Melbourne 8.8 91%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–15
14
 St Kilda 8.5 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14–15
15
 Essendon 8.6 77%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–15
16
 North Melbourne 6.6 77%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 Richmond 4.8 65%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
18
 West Coast 2.8 66%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 7 games of Round 17, 2025.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Collingwood 14 2 – 139.0%
+4.5
1
2
 Brisbane Lions 11 4 1 114.7%
+3.8
5
3
 Geelong 11 5 – 132.3%
+5.4
2
4
 Hawthorn 11 5 – 118.9%
+3.5
7
5
 Adelaide 10∗ 5 – 139.8%
+5.4
3
6
 Western Bulldogs 10 6 – 133.2%
+5.1
4
7
 Gold Coast 10∗ 5 – 122.5%
+4.7
6
8
 GWS 10 6 – 112.0%
+3.5
9
9
 Fremantle 10∗ 5 – 110.4%
+3.9
8
10
 Port Adelaide 7 9 – 87.6%
+3.0
11
11
 Carlton 6 10 – 96.1%
+3.4
12
12
 Sydney 6∗ 9 – 92.1%
+4.5
10
13
 Essendon 6∗ 9 – 76.4%
+2.6
15
14
 Melbourne 5∗ 10 – 86.7%
+3.8
13
15
 St Kilda 5 11 – 85.7%
+3.5
14
16
 North Melbourne 4 11 1 77.3%
+2.1
16
17
 Richmond 3 13 – 63.0%
+1.8
17
18
 West Coast 1 15 – 63.9%
+1.8
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 8 7 7 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 6 7

108 28.51 26.57 76.6%
Aggregate

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 3 7 7

106 27.56 26.43 75.2%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 8 7 8 5 7 6 8 5 6 5 5 6 4 7 7

106 27.25 27.35 75.2%
Punters

1 8 5 7 7 6 4 7 6 7 6 7 5 6 6 4 7 7

106 27.04 26.56 75.2%
AFL Lab

2 8 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 5 5 6 6 4 7 6

106 24.87 27.25 75.2%
Winnable

1 8 6 6 7 7 4 9 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 6 7

105 29.05 26.42 74.5%
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 7 7 8 5 7 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 7 7

105 28.66 26.29 74.5%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 7 5 7 4 7 8 6 5 6 6 6 6 4 7 7

105 28.17 27.61 74.5%
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 8 6 6 4 6 4 4 6 7

105 27.27 26.41 74.5%
s10

2 8 5 7 7 6 5 7 7 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 7

105 27.27 26.38 74.5%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 7 6 7 4 9 7 5 6 5 5 6 5 4 6 7

104 28.11 27.28 73.8%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 6 7 7 5 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 6 7

103 29.70 25.96 73.0%
Squiggle

1 7 5 8 7 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 4 4 7 7

102 25.43 27.08 72.3%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 6 7 6 4 6 7 7 6 6 5 6 4 4 6 7

101 28.07 26.15 71.6%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 7 7 6 4 8 7 6 6 6 4 6 4 3 6 7

101 26.66 26.81 71.6%
Stattraction

2 7 4 8 6 6 4 8 7 6 5 5 4 6 6 4 6 7

101 26.04 27.04 71.6%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 7 7 7 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 4 3 7 7

101 25.09 26.45 71.6%
ZaphBot

1 8 6 7 7 6 3 7 7 5 5 7 3 5 6 5 6 7

101 24.30 27.24 71.6%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 6 7 6 4 7 6 6 6 6 4 6 4 5 6 7

100 28.51 25.88 70.9%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 7 6 8 4 7 8 7 5 5 4 6 5 3 6 7

100 27.59 27.01 70.9%
The Footycast

1 7 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 7

100 19.16 28.61 70.9%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 7

98 26.64 26.98 69.5%
footycharts

2 7 3 8 7 6 5 8 6 6 4 6 4 5 5 3 6 6

97 24.43 27.85 68.8%
Graft

1 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 7 7

97 23.12 28.00 68.8%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 6 7 6 4 8 7 6 4 5 4 4 5 4 7 7

95 24.48 27.18 67.4%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 6 7 6 6 6 8 5 3 6 4 6 6 4 6 7

95 13.53 29.51 67.4%
Hyperion

1 7 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 5 3 7 4 4 6 4 6 7

94 21.86 28.45 66.7%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 6 4 3 6 7

93 21.70 28.25 66.0%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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