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New model: The Flag

Posted on March 9, 2020March 9, 2020 by Max Barry

The second new model for season 2020 is The Flag, which runs numbers on a truly bewildering number of different sports and leagues, including AFL. You can also find author Nick Fredriksson on Twitter.

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Wins % Range
1
 Sydney 16.3 144%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–3
2
 Hawthorn 16.4 125%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
3
 Fremantle 15.3 122%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–4
4
 Geelong 15.3 125%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
5
 Brisbane Lions 13.7 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–6
6
 Western Bulldogs 13.6 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–7
7
 Gold Coast 12.9 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–9
8
 Adelaide 12.5 108%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–8
9
 Collingwood 11.8 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–10
10
 Melbourne 11.4 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–11
11
 GWS 11.0 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–12
12
 St Kilda 10.4 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–13
13
 North Melbourne 10.5 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–13
14
 Port Adelaide 9.0 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14
15
 Carlton 7.7 85%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–16
16
 Essendon 7.0 81%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–17
17
 West Coast 7.4 71%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–17
18
 Richmond 4.5 64%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 1 game of Round 7, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Sydney 6 1 – 178.1%
+10.3
1
2
 Fremantle 5∗ 1 – 142.7%
+10.3
3
3
 Hawthorn 5∗ 1 – 118.2%
+11.4
2
4
 Gold Coast 4∗ 2 – 126.9%
+8.9
7
5
 North Melbourne 4∗ 2 – 120.8%
+6.5
13
6
 Geelong 4∗ 2 – 116.1%
+11.3
4
7
 Melbourne 4∗ 2 – 94.2%
+7.4
10
8
 Western Bulldogs 4 3 – 91.8%
+9.6
6
9
 Brisbane Lions 3∗ 3 – 111.7%
+10.7
5
10
 Adelaide 3∗ 3 – 105.3%
+9.5
8
11
 Collingwood 3∗ 3 – 94.8%
+8.8
9
12
 Port Adelaide 2∗ 4 – 108.1%
+7.0
14
13
 St Kilda 2∗ 4 – 92.6%
+8.4
12
14
 GWS 2∗ 4 – 86.8%
+9.0
11
15
 West Coast 2∗ 4 – 61.3%
+5.4
17
16
 Carlton 1∗ 5 – 79.2%
+6.7
15
17
 Essendon 1∗ 5 – 79.1%
+6.0
16
18
 Richmond –∗ 6 – 53.6%
+4.5
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 1

45 14.4194 14.42 24.8024 24.80 81.8182 81.8%
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 1

44 14.5837 14.58 26.5071 26.51 80.0000 80.0%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 1

44 9.3353 9.34 26.0220 26.02 80.0000 80.0%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 0

42 13.5343 13.53 26.4602 26.46 76.3636 76.4%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 1

41 15.5149 15.51 26.2709 26.27 74.5455 74.5%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 1

41 14.4651 14.47 25.2665 25.27 74.5455 74.5%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 0

41 14.3835 14.38 26.2182 26.22 74.5455 74.5%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 0

41 14.2953 14.30 27.3585 27.36 74.5455 74.5%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 0

41 14.0143 14.01 26.1920 26.19 74.5455 74.5%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 0

41 12.8215 12.82 26.3476 26.35 74.5455 74.5%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 1

41 12.6734 12.67 27.9455 27.95 74.5455 74.5%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 1

41 11.7463 11.75 26.1831 26.18 74.5455 74.5%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 1

40 12.8489 12.85 26.4844 26.48 72.7273 72.7%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 0

40 12.6039 12.60 26.9500 26.95 72.7273 72.7%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 0

40 11.9156 11.92 27.6695 27.67 72.7273 72.7%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 1

40 8.5878 8.59 28.0182 28.02 72.7273 72.7%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 0

39 11.9902 11.99 27.4000 27.40 70.9091 70.9%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 0

39 11.6024 11.60 28.5091 28.51 70.9091 70.9%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 0

39 9.7681 9.77 27.2873 27.29 70.9091 70.9%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 1

38 13.4696 13.47 26.4835 26.48 69.0909 69.1%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 0

38 13.2405 13.24 27.6795 27.68 69.0909 69.1%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 0

37 12.1431 12.14 28.6909 28.69 67.2727 67.3%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 1

37 12.1200 12.12 26.9676 26.97 67.2727 67.3%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 1

37 11.0544 11.05 26.6540 26.65 67.2727 67.3%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 0

36 11.2585 11.26 28.0113 28.01 65.4545 65.5%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 0

36 11.0230 11.02 30.0364 30.04 65.4545 65.5%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 0

36 9.8978 9.90 27.6491 27.65 65.4545 65.5%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 0

36 8.4049 8.40 28.1400 28.14 65.4545 65.5%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 0

32 7.9626 7.96 28.5273 28.53 58.1818 58.2%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 0

30 5.4610 5.46 28.6304 28.63 †9 65.2174 65.2%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 1

20 6.8625 6.86 31.4333 31.43 †25 66.6667 66.7%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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