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New model: The Flag

Posted on March 9, 2020March 9, 2020 by Max Barry

The second new model for season 2020 is The Flag, which runs numbers on a truly bewildering number of different sports and leagues, including AFL. You can also find author Nick Fredriksson on Twitter.

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Wins % Range
1
 Sydney 16.9 135%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
2
 Fremantle 17.2 124%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
3
 Hawthorn 15.6 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
4
 Geelong 15.4 126%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
5
 Adelaide 12.9 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–8
6
 Brisbane Lions 12.8 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–8
7
 Gold Coast 12.8 108%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–9
8
 Melbourne 12.9 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–8
9
 Western Bulldogs 12.2 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
10
 Collingwood 11.8 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
11
 GWS 10.8 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
12
 St Kilda 10.6 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–13
13
 North Melbourne 10.2 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–14
14
 Carlton 9.6 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–15
15
 Port Adelaide 8.2 97%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14–15
16
 West Coast 7.0 71%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 Essendon 4.8 74%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18
18
 Richmond 5.2 66%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18

After 2 games of Round 12, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Fremantle 10∗ 1 – 135.5%
+7.2
2
2
 Sydney 9∗ 2 – 142.5%
+7.9
1
3
 Hawthorn 8 3 1 114.8%
+7.1
3
4
 Geelong 8 4 – 121.9%
+7.4
4
5
 Gold Coast 7∗ 4 – 116.9%
+5.8
7
6
 Melbourne 7∗ 4 – 106.7%
+5.9
8
7
 Adelaide 6∗ 5 – 107.9%
+6.9
5
8
 Brisbane Lions 6∗ 5 – 106.6%
+6.8
6
9
 Western Bulldogs 6∗ 5 – 92.8%
+6.2
9
10
 Collingwood 5∗ 5 1 100.3%
+6.3
10
11
 St Kilda 5 7 – 102.3%
+5.6
12
12
 GWS 5∗ 6 – 98.6%
+5.8
11
13
 North Melbourne 5∗ 6 – 97.6%
+5.2
13
14
 Carlton 4 8 – 87.5%
+5.6
14
15
 Port Adelaide 3∗ 8 – 100.9%
+5.2
15
16
 West Coast 3∗ 8 – 66.1%
+4.0
16
17
 Richmond 2∗ 9 – 64.5%
+3.2
18
18
 Essendon 1∗ 10 – 70.9%
+3.8
17

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 1

79 25.6862 25.69 26.0029 26.00 78.2178 78.2%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 1

79 24.3837 24.38 25.0164 25.02 78.2178 78.2%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 1

77 16.8977 16.90 26.0509 26.05 76.2376 76.2%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 1

76 24.8182 24.82 26.1255 26.13 75.2475 75.2%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 1

76 22.2740 22.27 26.6211 26.62 75.2475 75.2%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 1

75 23.1976 23.20 26.9802 26.98 74.2574 74.3%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 1

75 23.0676 23.07 26.1882 26.19 74.2574 74.3%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 1

75 18.7995 18.80 26.6337 26.63 74.2574 74.3%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 1

74 25.3077 25.31 26.5400 26.54 73.2673 73.3%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 1

74 25.2561 25.26 25.8126 25.81 73.2673 73.3%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 1

74 24.5233 24.52 26.3949 26.39 73.2673 73.3%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 1

74 21.9153 21.92 26.4528 26.45 73.2673 73.3%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 1

73 24.9137 24.91 27.1160 27.12 72.2772 72.3%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 1

73 22.4507 22.45 26.8966 26.90 72.2772 72.3%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 1

73 21.4824 21.48 28.2079 28.21 72.2772 72.3%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 1

73 20.6817 20.68 27.0707 27.07 72.2772 72.3%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 1

72 22.2741 22.27 26.7562 26.76 71.2871 71.3%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 1

72 20.0970 20.10 27.8207 27.82 71.2871 71.3%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 1

71 20.1515 20.15 26.4644 26.46 70.2970 70.3%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 1

70 22.8565 22.86 26.0500 26.05 69.3069 69.3%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 1

70 22.3344 22.33 27.3493 27.35 69.3069 69.3%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 1

70 22.1987 22.20 26.7426 26.74 69.3069 69.3%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 1

70 20.8986 20.90 26.9347 26.93 69.3069 69.3%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 1

70 20.2822 20.28 29.0099 29.01 69.3069 69.3%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 1

69 21.1646 21.16 27.2772 27.28 68.3168 68.3%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 1

69 18.6579 18.66 26.8990 26.90 68.3168 68.3%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 1

68 18.6852 18.69 27.2356 27.24 67.3267 67.3%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 1

68 17.7510 17.75 27.2495 27.25 67.3267 67.3%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 1

66 16.3186 16.32 27.7228 27.72 65.3465 65.3%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 1

64 16.4213 16.42 27.5870 27.59 †9 69.5652 69.6%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 1

54 17.8898 17.89 28.4079 28.41 †25 71.0526 71.1%

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