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New model: The Flag

Posted on March 9, 2020March 9, 2020 by Max Barry

The second new model for season 2020 is The Flag, which runs numbers on a truly bewildering number of different sports and leagues, including AFL. You can also find author Nick Fredriksson on Twitter.

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Wins % Range
1
 Port Adelaide 14.0 136%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Brisbane Lions 14.0 125%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Richmond 12.5 130%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
4
 Geelong 12.0 137%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4
5
 West Coast 12.0 117%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5
6
 St Kilda 10.0 116%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6
7
 Western Bulldogs 10.0 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7
8
 Collingwood 9.5 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8
9
 Melbourne 9.0 108%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9
10
 GWS 8.0 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
11
 Carlton 7.0 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11
12
 Fremantle 7.0 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12
13
 Essendon 6.5 79%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13
14
 Gold Coast 5.5 91%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14
15
 Hawthorn 5.0 84%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 Sydney 5.0 83%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 North Melbourne 3.0 71%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
18
 Adelaide 3.0 64%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After Round 20, 2020.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Port Adelaide 14 3 – 136.4%
+0.0
1
2
 Brisbane Lions 14 3 – 124.9%
+0.0
2
3
 Richmond 12 4 1 129.9%
+0.0
3
4
 Geelong 12 5 – 136.8%
+0.0
4
5
 West Coast 12 5 – 117.0%
+0.0
5
6
 St Kilda 10 7 – 116.2%
+0.0
6
7
 Western Bulldogs 10 7 – 106.7%
+0.0
7
8
 Collingwood 9 7 1 109.5%
+0.0
8
9
 Melbourne 9 8 – 107.8%
+0.0
9
10
 GWS 8 9 – 95.6%
+0.0
10
11
 Carlton 7 10 – 94.3%
+0.0
11
12
 Fremantle 7 10 – 93.7%
+0.0
12
13
 Essendon 6 10 1 79.2%
+0.0
13
14
 Gold Coast 5 11 1 90.6%
+0.0
14
15
 Hawthorn 5 12 – 84.1%
+0.0
15
16
 Sydney 5 12 – 82.6%
+0.0
16
17
 North Melbourne 3 14 – 71.2%
+0.0
17
18
 Adelaide 3 14 – 64.4%
+0.0
18

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Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Punters

7 5 4 5 8 6 8 7 6 6 7 5 9 7 4 6 5 8 1 2 0 1

117 27.11 22.77 72.2%
Squiggle

7 5 5 5 7 6 7 6 5 7 8 6 8 7 3 6 5 9 2 2 1 0

117 21.49 22.93 72.2%
AFLalytics

7 5 4 6 7 6 5 8 7 6 7 6 9 6 4 6 5 8 2 2 0 0

116 24.70 22.35 71.6%
s10

8 5 3 4 6 7 6 6 7 6 7 6 9 6 4 6 5 9 2 2 1 0

115 22.14 22.85 71.0%
AFL_GO

6 4 4 4 7 7 5 7 8 7 5 6 9 5 4 6 6 9 2 2 0 0

113 18.42 23.31 69.8%
Matter of Stats

6 5 4 4 5 7 7 6 7 6 7 6 9 6 3 6 5 9 1 2 1 0

112 23.53 23.16 69.1%
Aggregate

7 4 4 4 6 7 6 6 7 6 7 6 9 5 4 6 5 9 1 2 1 0

112 20.78 23.10 69.1%
Live Ladders

8 6 3 4 5 4 5 5 7 6 7 6 9 5 4 6 7 9 2 2 1 0

111 21.74 22.94 68.5%
PlusSixOne

8 5 3 6 7 8 3 5 8 5 8 6 9 6 3 5 3 8 2 2 1 0

111 13.81 23.45 68.5%
Footy Maths Institute

8 5 3 4 6 6 5 7 7 7 6 6 9 6 4 5 6 7 1 2 0 0

110 13.22 25.31 67.9%
Swinburne

8 4 3 5 5 7 5 6 8 6 6 5 8 5 4 5 7 8 1 2 0 0

108 19.31 24.58 66.7%
Graft

7 4 3 4 6 7 5 6 6 6 8 6 8 6 4 5 6 8 0 2 1 0

108 16.38 23.90 66.7%
The Flag

8 4 4 4 3 6 6 6 6 6 8 7 8 3 4 6 6 8 1 2 1 0

107 15.16 24.83 66.0%
AFL Lab

5 4 4 6 4 7 6 4 6 7 6 7 6 6 4 6 6 8 2 2 1 0

107 15.08 24.05 66.0%
Stattraction

7 5 3 4 6 5 6 5 7 6 5 7 8 5 4 5 6 8 0 2 2 0

106 12.59 24.35 65.4%
Massey Ratings

7 3 3 4 3 7 4 1 7 7 6 7 8 7 4 6 3 8 3 2 0 1

101 16.47 23.88 66.4%
The Arc

8 3 3 4 4 6 5

33 -1.66 27.74 53.2%

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Friends of Squiggle

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  • Matter of Stats
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About Squiggle

Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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