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New model: The Flag

Posted on March 9, 2020March 9, 2020 by Max Barry

The second new model for season 2020 is The Flag, which runs numbers on a truly bewildering number of different sports and leagues, including AFL. You can also find author Nick Fredriksson on Twitter.

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Wins % Range
1
 Collingwood 18.4 132%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Geelong 16.4 136%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–3
3
 Brisbane Lions 15.9 114%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–5
4
 Adelaide 15.6 133%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
5
 Western Bulldogs 15.0 134%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–7
6
 Gold Coast 14.7 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–7
7
 Hawthorn 14.6 114%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–7
8
 GWS 13.6 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
9
 Fremantle 13.6 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
10
 Sydney 10.9 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
11
 Port Adelaide 9.9 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11
12
 Carlton 8.9 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12
13
 Melbourne 8.6 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–15
14
 St Kilda 8.4 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–15
15
 Essendon 8.5 77%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–15
16
 North Melbourne 6.6 77%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 Richmond 4.8 66%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
18
 West Coast 2.6 66%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 1 game of Round 18, 2025.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Collingwood 14∗ 2 – 139.0%
+4.4
1
2
 Brisbane Lions 12 4 1 116.8%
+3.4
3
3
 Adelaide 11∗ 5 – 138.2%
+4.6
4
4
 Geelong 11∗ 5 – 132.3%
+5.4
2
5
 Hawthorn 11∗ 5 – 118.9%
+3.6
7
6
 Western Bulldogs 10∗ 6 – 133.2%
+5.0
5
7
 Gold Coast 10∗ 5 – 122.5%
+4.7
6
8
 GWS 10∗ 6 – 112.0%
+3.6
8
9
 Fremantle 10∗ 6 – 108.8%
+3.6
9
10
 Sydney 7∗ 9 – 93.4%
+3.9
10
11
 Port Adelaide 7∗ 9 – 87.6%
+2.9
11
12
 Carlton 6 11 – 93.7%
+2.9
12
13
 Essendon 6∗ 9 – 76.4%
+2.5
15
14
 Melbourne 5∗ 11 – 86.7%
+3.6
13
15
 St Kilda 5∗ 11 – 85.7%
+3.4
14
16
 North Melbourne 4∗ 11 1 77.3%
+2.1
16
17
 Richmond 3∗ 13 – 63.0%
+1.8
17
18
 West Coast 1∗ 15 – 63.9%
+1.6
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 8 7 7 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 6 9 1

111 29.68 26.26 77.1%
Punters

1 8 5 7 7 6 4 7 6 7 6 7 5 6 6 4 7 9 1

109 28.78 26.18 75.7%
Aggregate

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 3 7 9 1

109 28.76 26.16 75.7%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 8 7 8 5 7 6 8 5 6 5 5 6 4 7 9 1

109 28.32 27.12 75.7%
AFL Lab

2 8 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 5 5 6 6 4 7 8 1

109 25.88 26.93 75.7%
Winnable

1 8 6 6 7 7 4 9 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 6 9 1

108 30.44 26.08 75.0%
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 7 7 8 5 7 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 7 9 1

108 29.62 25.99 75.0%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 7 5 7 4 7 8 6 5 6 6 6 6 4 7 9 1

108 29.44 27.43 75.0%
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 8 6 6 4 6 4 4 6 9 1

108 28.47 26.07 75.0%
s10

2 8 5 7 7 6 5 7 7 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 9 1

108 28.47 26.10 75.0%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 6 7 7 5 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 6 9 1

106 31.13 25.62 73.6%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 7 6 7 4 9 7 5 6 5 5 6 5 4 6 8 1

106 29.49 27.03 73.6%
Squiggle

1 7 5 8 7 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 4 4 7 9 1

105 26.54 26.75 72.9%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 6 7 6 4 6 7 7 6 6 5 6 4 4 6 9 1

104 29.53 25.81 72.2%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 7 7 6 4 8 7 6 6 6 4 6 4 3 6 9 1

104 27.86 26.54 72.2%
Stattraction

2 7 4 8 6 6 4 8 7 6 5 5 4 6 6 4 6 9 1

104 27.22 26.74 72.2%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 7 7 7 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 4 3 7 9 1

104 26.32 26.10 72.2%
ZaphBot

1 8 6 7 7 6 3 7 7 5 5 7 3 5 6 5 6 9 1

104 25.66 26.94 72.2%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 6 7 6 4 7 6 6 6 6 4 6 4 5 6 9 1

103 29.98 25.64 71.5%
The Footycast

1 7 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 9 1

103 20.11 28.39 71.5%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 7 6 8 4 7 8 7 5 5 4 6 5 3 6 9 0

102 28.09 26.79 70.8%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 8 1

100 27.84 26.76 69.4%
footycharts

2 7 3 8 7 6 5 8 6 6 4 6 4 5 5 3 6 8 1

100 25.61 27.57 69.4%
Graft

1 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 7 9 1

100 24.23 27.80 69.4%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 6 7 6 4 8 7 6 4 5 4 4 5 4 7 9 1

98 25.67 26.81 68.1%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 6 7 6 6 6 8 5 3 6 4 6 6 4 6 9 1

98 14.12 29.22 68.1%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 6 4 3 6 9 1

96 23.05 27.93 66.7%
Hyperion

1 7 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 5 3 7 4 4 6 4 6 8 1

96 22.85 28.17 66.7%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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