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New model: The Flag

Posted on March 9, 2020March 9, 2020 by Max Barry

The second new model for season 2020 is The Flag, which runs numbers on a truly bewildering number of different sports and leagues, including AFL. You can also find author Nick Fredriksson on Twitter.

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Wins % Range
1
 Sydney 16.8 127%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Port Adelaide 15.3 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Geelong 14.9 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
4
 GWS 14.9 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–5
5
 Brisbane Lions 14.2 122%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–6
6
 Western Bulldogs 13.8 125%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–7
7
 Hawthorn 13.8 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–8
8
 Carlton 13.7 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–8
9
 Fremantle 12.8 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–10
10
 Collingwood 12.6 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–10
11
 Essendon 11.3 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11
12
 Gold Coast 10.8 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–14
13
 Melbourne 11.0 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–14
14
 St Kilda 10.3 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–14
15
 Adelaide 8.4 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 West Coast 5.0 68%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 North Melbourne 3.0 63%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
18
 Richmond 2.0 63%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 8 games of Round 24, 2024.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Sydney 17 6 – 126.7%
+-0.2
1
2
 Port Adelaide 15 7 – 114.2%
+0.3
2
3
 Geelong 15 8 – 112.2%
+-0.1
3
4
 GWS 15 8 – 109.1%
+-0.1
4
5
 Brisbane Lions 14 8 1 121.9%
+-0.3
5
6
 Western Bulldogs 14 9 – 125.1%
+-0.2
6
7
 Hawthorn 14 9 – 118.5%
+-0.2
7
8
 Carlton 13 10 – 110.2%
+0.7
8
9
 Collingwood 12 9 2 102.5%
+-0.4
10
10
 Fremantle 12 9 1 113.7%
+0.3
9
11
 Essendon 11 11 1 93.5%
+-0.2
11
12
 St Kilda 11 12 – 99.4%
+-0.7
14
13
 Gold Coast 11 12 – 99.1%
+-0.2
12
14
 Melbourne 11 12 – 98.5%
+0.0
13
15
 Adelaide 8 14 1 99.1%
+-0.1
15
16
 West Coast 5 18 – 68.1%
+-0.0
16
17
 North Melbourne 3 20 – 63.5%
+-0.0
17
18
 Richmond 2 21 – 63.7%
+0.0
18

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Live Ladders

3 8 7 4 8 4 3 9 6 6 5 6 4 5 6 6 7 6 9 7 5 6 5 6 9 2

152 32.87 26.50 72.0%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 4 9 4 5 7 6 5 5 6 5 5 6 5 5 4 6 7 6 4 3 6 9 2

140 33.48 26.64 66.4%
AFLalytics

3 7 6 4 8 4 5 9 6 5 5 6 5 5 6 5 7 5 7 6 4 4 3 6 7 2

140 29.73 27.31 66.4%
Informed Stats

2 7 6 4 8 4 4 7 7 5 6 6 4 6 5 6 5 4 6 6 7 5 4 6 8 2

140 26.53 27.39 66.4%
The Wooden Finger

3 5 6 5 9 4 3 8 6 5 5 8 4 3 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 4 6 7 3

140 24.29 27.20 66.4%
Graft

2 6 6 4 9 4 4 8 5 6 5 7 3 5 6 6 7 4 7 6 5 5 4 6 6 3

139 27.65 27.34 65.9%
Data by Josh

3 7 6 4 6 4 4 9 5 6 4 8 6 5 6 6 6 4 5 7 6 2 4 6 9

138 32.10 26.50†8 68.0%
s10

3 6 6 4 8 4 5 9 6 5 5 7 5 5 6 6 4 4 7 7 5 3 3 6 7 2

138 30.83 26.82 65.4%
Hyperion

1 7 7 4 9 4 5 9 5 6 6 7 3 3 6 5 6 5 5 6 4 5 3 7 8 2

138 27.38 27.22 65.4%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 6 4 9 4 5 8 5 6 5 7 4 5 5 5 6 5 7 6 4 5 4 5 7 2

138 24.60 27.32 65.4%
Drop Kick Data

3 6 6 3 8 4 4 8 5 5 6 7 3 5 6 6 4 4 5 7 6 5 4 6 9 2

137 29.26 27.02 64.9%
Massey Ratings

2 7 8 4 7 4 3 8 6 6 5 7 3 4 6 6 6 4 7 7 5 5 3 6 6 2

137 27.62 26.89 64.9%
Matter of Stats

3 6 6 4 8 4 5 8 6 5 5 6 4 4 6 6 5 4 8 6 4 5 4 5 8 2

137 27.55 27.41 64.9%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 4 8 4 5 9 5 5 5 7 3 4 6 6 6 3 5 7 7 4 4 6 7 2

137 22.52 28.16 64.9%
Squiggle

2 6 6 4 7 4 4 9 5 4 6 6 4 4 6 6 4 5 8 8 5 3 5 6 7 2

136 29.25 26.89 64.5%
FMI

3 7 6 4 9 4 5 9 5 4 5 7 3 3 6 5 6 6 7 6 5 4 2 6 7 2

136 27.51 27.30†1 64.8%
What Snoo Thinks

3 6 6 5 8 4 4 8 7 6 6 7 3 4 6 6 5 4 6 6 4 3 4 6 7 2

136 27.50 27.25 64.5%
Cheap Stats

1 7 6 4 9 4 5 8 5 5 6 7 4 3 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 3 5 6 9 2

136 26.49 27.57 64.5%
The Footycast

3 6 6 4 9 4 3 7 6 6 5 7 4 3 6 6 4 4 6 6 6 5 4 6 7 3

136 25.53 27.00 64.5%
Aggregate

3 6 6 4 9 4 5 8 6 5 5 7 4 4 6 6 4 4 7 6 4 4 3 6 7 2

135 29.92 26.78 64.0%
Punters

3 7 6 4 9 4 4 8 5 5 5 7 5 2 6 6 4 4 6 7 5 5 3 5 8 2

135 29.02 26.92 64.0%
AFL Lab

3 7 6 4 9 3 4 8 5 4 5 6 3 4 4 4 6 6 8 7 6 5 4 4 8 2

135 27.94 26.77 64.0%
Elo Predicts!

3 7 7 5 9 4 5 8 5 5 5 7 3 4 6 6 5 4 6 5 4 4 3 6 7 2

135 26.80 26.96 64.0%
Glicko Ratings

3 6 6 4 7 4 4 8 5 7 5 8 4 4 6 6 5 4 6 7 4 3 4 5 7 2

134 27.26 27.37 63.5%
PlusSixOne

1 7 6 5 5 4 4 9 6 5 5 6 4 4 6 5 6 5 6 6 5 5 3 8 6 2

134 16.94 28.76 63.5%
Winnable

3 7 6 4 9 4 4 7 4 6 6 6 4 5 6 6 4 4 5 6 4 3 4 6 8 2

133 28.13 27.40 63.0%
The Cruncher

3 6 6 4 8 4 4 8 5 5 5 7 4 3 6 6 4 4 6 6 4 3 3 6 8 3

131 27.28 27.21†2 62.7%
footycharts

3 7 5 4 8 4 4 7 6 6 5 6 4 4 5 5 5 4 6 6 4 4 3 6 8 2

131 24.55 27.85 62.1%
Stattraction

1 5 6 4 9 4 3 8 5 5 6 7 4 3 5 6 6 4 6 6 5 3 4 6 8 2

131 23.85 27.65 62.1%
ZaphBot

3 5 6 6 8 4 4 7 4 4 5 7 3 4 5 6 5 4 6 6 6 4 3 6 6 3

130 27.37 26.95 61.6%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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