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New model: The Flag

Posted on March 9, 2020March 9, 2020 by Max Barry

The second new model for season 2020 is The Flag, which runs numbers on a truly bewildering number of different sports and leagues, including AFL. You can also find author Nick Fredriksson on Twitter.

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Wins % Range
1
 Fremantle 18.7 138%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Sydney 17.3 132%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Hawthorn 15.1 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
4
 Brisbane Lions 14.4 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–5
5
 Geelong 13.9 122%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–7
6
 Adelaide 14.0 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–6
7
 Melbourne 13.6 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–7
8
 Western Bulldogs 12.8 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8
9
 Collingwood 11.9 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–10
10
 Carlton 11.4 97%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–11
11
 GWS 10.6 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–13
12
 St Kilda 10.4 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–14
13
 North Melbourne 10.7 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–14
14
 Gold Coast 10.2 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–14
15
 Port Adelaide 8.9 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 West Coast 6.1 72%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 Richmond 3.7 64%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
18
 Essendon 3.0 70%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 7 games of Round 17, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Fremantle 14 2 – 141.6%
+4.7
1
2
 Sydney 13 3 – 136.9%
+4.3
2
3
 Hawthorn 10 5 1 110.0%
+4.6
3
4
 Brisbane Lions 10 6 – 111.7%
+4.4
4
5
 Adelaide 10 6 – 111.4%
+4.0
6
6
 Melbourne 10 6 – 106.3%
+3.6
7
7
 Geelong 9 7 – 117.1%
+4.9
5
8
 Western Bulldogs 9 7 – 90.8%
+3.8
8
9
 Collingwood 8 7 1 104.5%
+3.4
9
10
 Carlton 8 8 – 96.0%
+3.4
10
11
 North Melbourne 8∗ 7 – 92.2%
+2.7
13
12
 GWS 7 9 – 100.8%
+3.6
11
13
 Gold Coast 7 9 – 100.7%
+3.2
14
14
 St Kilda 6∗ 9 – 100.6%
+4.4
12
15
 Port Adelaide 5∗ 10 – 100.8%
+3.9
15
16
 West Coast 4 12 – 71.5%
+2.1
16
17
 Richmond 2 14 – 63.3%
+1.7
17
18
 Essendon 1∗ 14 – 71.0%
+2.0
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 3

107 32.2667 32.27 25.2111 25.21 75.3521 75.4%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 3

105 31.4063 31.41 24.8249 24.82 73.9437 73.9%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 6 5 5 3

105 22.5638 22.56 25.3950 25.39 73.9437 73.9%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 6 6 4

104 31.8490 31.85 26.2042 26.20 73.2394 73.2%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 3

103 32.5421 32.54 25.4533 25.45 72.5352 72.5%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 6 5 6 3

102 33.3139 33.31 25.3088 25.31 71.8310 71.8%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 3

102 31.2802 31.28 25.6144 25.61 71.8310 71.8%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 3

102 31.1108 31.11 25.3837 25.38 71.8310 71.8%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 3

102 27.8508 27.85 26.1201 26.12 71.8310 71.8%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 3

101 33.2097 33.21 25.7793 25.78 71.1268 71.1%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 7 6 5 3

101 29.1254 29.13 25.6843 25.68 71.1268 71.1%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 3

100 31.1116 31.11 27.0070 27.01 70.4225 70.4%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 3

100 30.4963 30.50 26.1765 26.18 70.4225 70.4%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 4

100 27.4699 27.47 25.7958 25.80 70.4225 70.4%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5 6 5 6 4

99 31.4266 31.43 25.1473 25.15 69.7183 69.7%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 6 5 6 3

99 31.3396 31.34 26.3640 26.36 69.7183 69.7%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 4

99 29.9163 29.92 26.4507 26.45 69.7183 69.7%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 6 5 3

99 26.2180 26.22 27.3084 27.31 †1 70.2128 70.2%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5 5 5 6 3

98 30.6063 30.61 25.6043 25.60 69.0141 69.0%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 3

98 29.3356 29.34 25.8489 25.85 69.0141 69.0%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 4

97 24.6527 24.65 26.0204 26.02 68.3099 68.3%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 5 4 6 3

96 28.8960 28.90 27.0572 27.06 67.6056 67.6%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4 5 5 5 4

96 27.4890 27.49 25.6359 25.64 67.6056 67.6%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 4 5 3

95 29.8325 29.83 25.7042 25.70 66.9014 66.9%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4 5 4 5 3

95 24.9035 24.90 26.6770 26.68 66.9014 66.9%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4 5 5 5 3

94 27.8777 27.88 27.4155 27.42 66.1972 66.2%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 5 5 3

94 26.6189 26.62 26.1406 26.14 66.1972 66.2%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5 5 6 6 3

93 23.9912 23.99 27.0000 27.00 65.4930 65.5%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 3

91 24.5721 24.57 26.4962 26.50 †9 68.4211 68.4%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4 5

87 22.0907 22.09 26.9587 26.96 †21 71.9008 71.9%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 3

81 26.3617 26.36 26.7906 26.79 †25 69.2308 69.2%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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