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New model: The Flag

Posted on March 9, 2020March 9, 2020 by Max Barry

The second new model for season 2020 is The Flag, which runs numbers on a truly bewildering number of different sports and leagues, including AFL. You can also find author Nick Fredriksson on Twitter.

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Wins % Range
1
 Western Bulldogs 16.1 128%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
2
 Hawthorn 14.8 123%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–4
3
 Gold Coast 14.8 124%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–5
4
 Brisbane Lions 14.0 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–6
5
 Geelong 14.1 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–7
6
 Fremantle 14.0 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–7
7
 Sydney 13.3 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–8
8
 Adelaide 12.4 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–10
9
 Collingwood 11.9 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–10
10
 Melbourne 10.9 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–14
11
 GWS 10.9 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–12
12
 St Kilda 10.2 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–15
13
 North Melbourne 10.2 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–14
14
 West Coast 9.4 83%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–16
15
 Port Adelaide 9.1 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–15
16
 Carlton 8.4 83%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–16
17
 Essendon 6.3 74%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18
18
 Richmond 6.3 73%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18

After 3 games of Round 4, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Gold Coast 3∗ – – 191.0%
+11.8
3
2
 Western Bulldogs 3∗ – – 137.2%
+13.1
1
3
 Fremantle 3 1 – 133.4%
+11.0
6
4
 North Melbourne 3 1 – 115.3%
+7.2
13
5
 Sydney 2∗ 1 – 139.5%
+11.3
7
6
 Hawthorn 2∗ 1 – 118.1%
+12.8
2
7
 Brisbane Lions 2 2 – 110.6%
+12.0
4
8
 Melbourne 2∗ 1 – 96.0%
+8.9
10
9
 Collingwood 2 2 – 93.1%
+9.9
9
10
 West Coast 2∗ 1 – 87.3%
+7.4
14
11
 Geelong 2∗ 1 – 86.7%
+12.1
5
12
 Port Adelaide 1∗ 2 – 105.5%
+8.1
15
13
 Adelaide 1 3 – 99.4%
+11.4
8
14
 St Kilda 1 3 – 86.0%
+9.2
12
15
 Carlton 1 3 – 76.9%
+7.4
16
16
 GWS 1 3 – 76.9%
+9.9
11
17
 Essendon –∗ 3 – 61.8%
+6.3
17
18
 Richmond –∗ 3 – 56.9%
+6.3
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 2

24 6.9362 6.94 22.2935 22.29 77.4194 77.4%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 1

24 4.1234 4.12 24.7552 24.76 77.4194 77.4%
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 2

23 6.7032 6.70 24.5623 24.56 74.1935 74.2%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 1

23 5.7274 5.73 24.0819 24.08 74.1935 74.2%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 1

22 7.0571 7.06 23.6548 23.65 70.9677 71.0%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 2

22 6.8862 6.89 24.0332 24.03 70.9677 71.0%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 1

22 6.3753 6.38 23.8394 23.84 70.9677 71.0%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 1

22 5.3571 5.36 23.9977 24.00 70.9677 71.0%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 2

22 5.1774 5.18 24.6981 24.70 70.9677 71.0%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 1

22 5.0256 5.03 23.4194 23.42 70.9677 71.0%
HBin

4 7 5 5 1

22 4.5699 4.57 25.3355 25.34 70.9677 71.0%
s10

2 8 5 5 1

21 6.6533 6.65 23.8058 23.81 67.7419 67.7%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 1

21 6.5005 6.50 24.0826 24.08 67.7419 67.7%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 1

21 5.4720 5.47 24.1461 24.15 67.7419 67.7%
Graft

3 7 4 6 1

21 4.7386 4.74 25.0000 25.00 67.7419 67.7%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 1

21 4.5157 4.52 26.4194 26.42 67.7419 67.7%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 1

20 6.8635 6.86 24.4665 24.47 64.5161 64.5%
Punters

2 6 4 6 2

20 5.9587 5.96 23.7774 23.78 64.5161 64.5%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 1

20 5.0407 5.04 24.3652 24.37 64.5161 64.5%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 1

20 4.4625 4.46 25.9677 25.97 64.5161 64.5%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 1

20 3.9331 3.93 26.5274 26.53 64.5161 64.5%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 2

20 2.0163 2.02 28.6129 28.61 64.5161 64.5%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 1

19 5.2783 5.28 24.3326 24.33 61.2903 61.3%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 1

19 4.9896 4.99 25.0645 25.06 61.2903 61.3%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 2

19 4.4841 4.48 25.0635 25.06 61.2903 61.3%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 1

19 3.6152 3.62 26.7806 26.78 61.2903 61.3%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 1

19 2.4987 2.50 26.8226 26.82 61.2903 61.3%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 1

18 5.3676 5.37 25.3177 25.32 58.0645 58.1%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 1

18 2.3682 2.37 27.7419 27.74 58.0645 58.1%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5

17 0.6310 0.63 27.4286 27.43 †3 60.7143 60.7%
Massey Ratings

2 4

6 1.1606 1.16 35.5833 35.58 †19 50.0000 50.0%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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