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New model: The Flag

Posted on March 9, 2020March 9, 2020 by Max Barry

The second new model for season 2020 is The Flag, which runs numbers on a truly bewildering number of different sports and leagues, including AFL. You can also find author Nick Fredriksson on Twitter.

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Wins % Range
1
 Collingwood 17.9 137%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Geelong 16.4 134%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Adelaide 15.1 131%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–5
4
 Brisbane Lions 15.1 108%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–5
5
 Western Bulldogs 14.7 134%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–6
6
 Gold Coast 14.7 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–6
7
 Hawthorn 13.4 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–8
8
 Fremantle 13.3 108%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–9
9
 GWS 12.7 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
10
 Carlton 10.5 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
11
 Essendon 10.1 82%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–13
12
 Melbourne 9.8 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–13
13
 St Kilda 9.5 91%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–14
14
 Sydney 9.5 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–14
15
 Port Adelaide 8.9 83%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 North Melbourne 6.0 76%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
17
 Richmond 5.9 71%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
18
 West Coast 3.9 67%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 0 games of Round 13, 2025.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Collingwood 10 2 – 136.9%
+7.9
1
2
 Brisbane Lions 9 2 1 114.0%
+5.6
4
3
 Adelaide 8 4 – 139.3%
+7.1
3
4
 Gold Coast 8∗ 3 – 127.8%
+6.7
6
5
 Geelong 8 4 – 124.8%
+8.4
2
6
 Hawthorn 7 5 – 110.2%
+6.4
7
7
 GWS 7 5 – 109.4%
+5.7
9
8
 Fremantle 7 5 – 106.4%
+6.3
8
9
 Western Bulldogs 6∗ 5 – 126.5%
+8.7
5
10
 Essendon 6∗ 5 – 84.6%
+4.1
11
11
 St Kilda 5 7 – 93.1%
+4.5
13
12
 Melbourne 5 7 – 87.6%
+4.8
12
13
 Carlton 4∗ 7 – 102.8%
+6.5
10
14
 Sydney 4 8 – 85.7%
+5.5
14
15
 Port Adelaide 4∗ 7 – 79.1%
+4.9
15
16
 Richmond 3 9 – 71.1%
+2.9
17
17
 North Melbourne 2∗ 8 1 78.1%
+3.5
16
18
 West Coast 1 11 – 64.5%
+2.9
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 8 7 7 5 9 6 6 6 6 5

79 17.41 27.64 75.2%
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 8 6 6 4

78 17.40 27.33 74.3%
Winnable

1 8 6 6 7 7 4 9 7 6 6 6 4

77 18.05 27.43 73.3%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 8 7 8 5 7 6 8 5 6 5

77 17.69 27.96 73.3%
Aggregate

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 6 6 6 5

77 16.82 27.57 73.3%
AFL Lab

2 8 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 5 5

77 16.69 28.17 73.3%
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 7 7 8 5 7 7 6 6 6 4

76 18.22 27.52 72.4%
s10

2 8 5 7 7 6 5 7 7 6 5 6 5

76 16.85 27.55 72.4%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 7 6 7 4 9 7 5 6 5 5

76 16.30 28.85 72.4%
Punters

1 8 5 7 7 6 4 7 6 7 6 7 5

76 15.51 27.92 72.4%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 6 7 7 5 7 6 6 5 6 5

75 19.50 27.03 71.4%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 7 7 6 4 8 7 6 6 6 4

75 16.81 27.46 71.4%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 7 5 7 4 7 8 6 5 6 6

75 15.33 29.19 71.4%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 6 7 6 4 6 7 7 6 6 5

74 18.51 26.98 70.5%
Squiggle

1 7 5 8 7 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5

74 15.71 28.24 70.5%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 7 7 7 5 6 6 6 6 5 5

74 13.79 27.69 70.5%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 7 6 8 4 7 8 7 5 5 4

73 16.59 27.95 69.5%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 6 7 6 4 7 6 6 6 6 4

72 16.78 27.19 68.6%
footycharts

2 7 3 8 7 6 5 8 6 6 4 6 4

72 15.74 28.46 68.6%
Stattraction

2 7 4 8 6 6 4 8 7 6 5 5 4

72 14.34 28.55 68.6%
ZaphBot

1 8 6 7 7 6 3 7 7 5 5 7 3

72 13.75 29.08 68.6%
The Footycast

1 7 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 6 5 6 5

71 9.74 30.00 67.6%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 5 6 5

69 15.66 28.22 65.7%
Graft

1 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 6 5 5 5

69 12.90 29.28 65.7%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 6 7 6 4 8 7 6 4 5 4

68 13.24 28.51 64.8%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4

67 12.78 28.85 63.8%
Hyperion

1 7 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 5 3 7 4

67 11.89 29.76 63.8%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 6 7 6 6 6 8 5 3 6 4

66 7.98 30.07 62.9%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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