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New model: The Flag

Posted on March 9, 2020March 9, 2020 by Max Barry

The second new model for season 2020 is The Flag, which runs numbers on a truly bewildering number of different sports and leagues, including AFL. You can also find author Nick Fredriksson on Twitter.

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Wins % Range
1
Fremantle 19.0 138%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1
2
Sydney 18.0 137%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2
3
Brisbane Lions 16.0 122%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3–4
4
Hawthorn 16.0 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3–4
5
Geelong 15.0 123%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5–6
6
Adelaide 15.0 117%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5–7
7
Melbourne 15.0 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5–7
8
Western Bulldogs 13.5 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
8–9
9
Collingwood 13.0 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
8–9
10
Carlton 12.5 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
10
11
St Kilda 10.0 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
11–12
12
GWS 10.0 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
11–12
13
Gold Coast 9.0 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
13–14
14
North Melbourne 9.0 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
13–14
15
Port Adelaide 7.0 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15
16
West Coast 4.0 69%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16
17
Richmond 3.0 62%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17
18
Essendon 2.0 64%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18

After Round 24, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
Fremantle 19 4 – 137.2%
+0.0
1
2
Sydney 18 5 – 136.1%
+-0.0
2
3
Brisbane Lions 16 7 – 121.7%
+-0.0
3
4
Hawthorn 15 6 2 120.1%
+0.0
4
5
Geelong 15 8 – 122.3%
+-0.0
5
6
Adelaide 15 8 – 117.3%
+-0.0
6
7
Melbourne 15 8 – 109.6%
+0.0
7
8
Western Bulldogs 13 9 1 95.4%
+-0.0
8
9
Collingwood 12 9 2 102.4%
+0.0
9
10
Carlton 12 10 1 101.5%
+-0.0
10
11
St Kilda 10 13 – 102.8%
+0.0
11
12
GWS 10 13 – 98.9%
+0.0
12
13
Gold Coast 9 14 – 94.5%
+-0.0
13
14
North Melbourne 9 14 – 88.8%
+0.0
14
15
Port Adelaide 7 16 – 88.0%
+-0.0
15
16
West Coast 4 19 – 69.2%
+0.0
16
17
Richmond 3 20 – 62.5%
+0.0
17
18
Essendon 2 21 – 64.6%
+0.0
18

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 7 6 6 9 5 0

157 50.9997 51.00 25.1795 25.18 75.1196 75.1%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 6 5 5 5 9 6 7 7 6 9 6 0

157 35.0217 35.02 25.3779 25.38 75.1196 75.1%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 8 5 9 6 0

155 53.4210 53.42 25.0091 25.01 74.1627 74.2%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 6 9 6 1

155 52.7152 52.72 25.1215 25.12 74.1627 74.2%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 5 4 9 6 0

154 51.2429 51.24 25.9426 25.94 73.6842 73.7%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 6 4 9 6 0

154 50.6983 50.70 24.7356 24.74 73.6842 73.7%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 7 9 5 0

154 48.1062 48.11 25.4617 25.46 73.6842 73.7%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 5 9 6 0

153 50.9049 50.90 25.0442 25.04 73.2057 73.2%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 7 6 5 5 8 6 8 7 6 9 6

153 48.8410 48.84 25.6301 25.63 †2 73.9130 73.9%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 9 6 8 6 5 9 5 0

152 52.2544 52.25 24.8785 24.88 72.7273 72.7%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 8 7 5 9 6 0

152 49.7369 49.74 25.7895 25.79 72.7273 72.7%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 6 5 9 6 0

151 54.1896 54.19 25.5519 25.55 72.2488 72.2%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 5 8 6 8 7 5 9 6 0

151 52.3147 52.31 26.1579 26.16 72.2488 72.2%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 8 6 7 6 6 9 6 1

150 40.0433 40.04 26.2692 26.27 †1 72.1154 72.1%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 6 5 9 6 0

149 52.0978 52.10 25.6715 25.67 71.2919 71.3%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5 6 5 6 6 8 6 8 6 4 9 6 1

149 50.0383 50.04 25.2375 25.24 71.2919 71.3%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 6 6 9 7 0

149 47.9752 47.98 25.3569 25.36 71.2919 71.3%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 9 5 1

149 46.9045 46.90 24.9512 24.95 71.2919 71.3%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 4 6 8 6 1

149 46.5120 46.51 26.0977 26.10 71.2919 71.3%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 6 8 7 7 6 6 9 6 1

149 41.3749 41.37 25.6713 25.67 71.2919 71.3%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 5 8 6 8 6 5 9 6 0

148 50.1885 50.19 25.3210 25.32 70.8134 70.8%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 5 9 5 0

148 49.7044 49.70 25.4766 25.48 70.8134 70.8%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 8 5 7 7 4 9 6 0

147 49.2452 49.25 26.1303 26.13 †4 71.7073 71.7%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 5 4 6 5 7 6 7 7 4 9 6 1

145 48.4696 48.47 26.4731 26.47 69.3780 69.4%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 6 6 9 5 1

145 46.4337 46.43 26.3541 26.35 69.3780 69.4%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5 5 6 6 5 8 6 8 7 6 9 5 1

145 46.3183 46.32 26.5502 26.55 69.3780 69.4%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 4 5 5 8 6 8 5 6 9 5 1

145 46.2366 46.24 25.8708 25.87 69.3780 69.4%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 9 7 8 6 6 9 6 1

145 43.7674 43.77 25.9550 25.95 †9 72.5000 72.5%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4 5 4 5 5 7 6 7 6 5 9 6 0

143 40.5401 40.54 26.9050 26.91 68.4211 68.4%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 5 5 5 8 5 8 6 4 8 6 0

141 42.9096 42.91 26.1212 26.12 67.4641 67.5%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 8 6 5 9 6 1

133 46.3082 46.31 26.3043 26.30 †25 72.2826 72.3%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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