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New model: The Flag

Posted on March 9, 2020March 9, 2020 by Max Barry

The second new model for season 2020 is The Flag, which runs numbers on a truly bewildering number of different sports and leagues, including AFL. You can also find author Nick Fredriksson on Twitter.

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Wins % Range
1
 Collingwood 18.2 134%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Geelong 16.2 136%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Adelaide 14.8 131%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–5
4
 Brisbane Lions 15.0 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
5
 Western Bulldogs 14.4 136%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–6
6
 Gold Coast 13.8 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–9
7
 Hawthorn 14.0 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7
8
 Fremantle 13.6 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–9
9
 GWS 13.1 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
10
 Sydney 10.8 97%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
11
 Carlton 10.2 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
12
 Port Adelaide 9.9 86%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–13
13
 Melbourne 9.1 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–15
14
 St Kilda 8.9 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14
15
 Essendon 9.0 78%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–15
16
 North Melbourne 7.2 80%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 Richmond 5.4 68%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
18
 West Coast 3.3 66%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 0 games of Round 16, 2025.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Collingwood 12∗ 2 – 135.0%
+6.2
1
2
 Brisbane Lions 10 4 1 113.4%
+4.5
4
3
 Geelong 10 5 – 127.5%
+6.2
2
4
 Adelaide 9∗ 5 – 135.2%
+5.8
3
5
 Hawthorn 9∗ 5 – 111.6%
+5.0
7
6
 Fremantle 9∗ 5 – 110.0%
+4.6
8
7
 GWS 9 6 – 107.6%
+4.1
9
8
 Western Bulldogs 8∗ 6 – 133.4%
+6.4
5
9
 Gold Coast 8∗ 5 – 120.1%
+5.8
6
10
 Carlton 6∗ 8 – 105.1%
+4.2
11
11
 Sydney 6∗ 8 – 92.2%
+4.8
10
12
 Port Adelaide 6∗ 8 – 84.0%
+3.9
12
13
 Essendon 6∗ 8 – 77.5%
+3.0
15
14
 Melbourne 5∗ 9 – 87.1%
+4.1
13
15
 St Kilda 5∗ 9 – 86.2%
+3.9
14
16
 North Melbourne 4∗ 9 1 82.5%
+2.7
16
17
 Richmond 3∗ 11 – 66.6%
+2.4
17
18
 West Coast 1∗ 13 – 65.1%
+2.3
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 8 7 7 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5

95 20.27 26.90 74.8%
AFL Lab

2 8 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 5 5 6 6 4

93 18.08 27.61 73.2%
Winnable

1 8 6 6 7 7 4 9 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3

92 20.74 26.69 72.4%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 8 7 8 5 7 6 8 5 6 5 5 6 4

92 19.93 27.67 72.4%
Aggregate

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 3

92 19.70 26.93 72.4%
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 8 6 6 4 6 4 4

92 19.62 26.73 72.4%
Punters

1 8 5 7 7 6 4 7 6 7 6 7 5 6 6 4

92 18.11 27.22 72.4%
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 7 7 8 5 7 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3

91 21.51 26.79 71.7%
s10

2 8 5 7 7 6 5 7 7 6 5 6 5 6 5 4

91 19.62 26.87 71.7%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 7 5 7 4 7 8 6 5 6 6 6 6 4

91 18.80 28.32 71.7%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 7 6 7 4 9 7 5 6 5 5 6 5 4

91 18.69 28.03 71.7%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 6 7 7 5 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 4

90 21.89 26.48 70.9%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 6 7 6 4 6 7 7 6 6 5 6 4 4

88 20.13 26.53 69.3%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 7 7 6 4 8 7 6 6 6 4 6 4 3

88 19.13 27.05 69.3%
Stattraction

2 7 4 8 6 6 4 8 7 6 5 5 4 6 6 4

88 17.73 27.74 69.3%
Squiggle

1 7 5 8 7 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 4 4

88 17.64 27.65 69.3%
ZaphBot

1 8 6 7 7 6 3 7 7 5 5 7 3 5 6 5

88 17.04 27.71 69.3%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 7 6 8 4 7 8 7 5 5 4 6 5 3

87 19.80 27.27 68.5%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 6 7 6 4 7 6 6 6 6 4 6 4 5

87 19.38 26.48 68.5%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 7 7 7 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 4 3

87 17.05 27.09 68.5%
The Footycast

1 7 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 6 5 6 5 6 5 4

86 11.83 29.33 67.7%
footycharts

2 7 3 8 7 6 5 8 6 6 4 6 4 5 5 3

85 16.98 28.13 66.9%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 4

84 18.30 27.44 66.1%
Graft

1 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4

83 15.66 28.65 65.4%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 6 7 6 6 6 8 5 3 6 4 6 6 4

82 9.71 29.27 64.6%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 6 7 6 4 8 7 6 4 5 4 4 5 4

81 16.63 27.85 63.8%
Hyperion

1 7 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 5 3 7 4 4 6 4

81 14.37 28.96 63.8%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 6 4 3

80 13.91 28.40 63.0%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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