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New model: The Flag

Posted on March 9, 2020March 9, 2020 by Max Barry

The second new model for season 2020 is The Flag, which runs numbers on a truly bewildering number of different sports and leagues, including AFL. You can also find author Nick Fredriksson on Twitter.

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Wins % Range
1
 Fremantle 18.7 136%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Sydney 18.1 140%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Hawthorn 15.7 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
4
 Geelong 15.1 127%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
5
 Adelaide 14.6 116%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5
6
 Brisbane Lions 13.3 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6
7
 Melbourne 13.0 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7
8
 Western Bulldogs 12.5 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8
9
 Gold Coast 11.4 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–11
10
 St Kilda 11.1 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–10
11
 Collingwood 11.1 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–12
12
 Carlton 10.9 97%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–13
13
 GWS 10.7 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–13
14
 North Melbourne 9.6 86%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14
15
 Port Adelaide 8.1 97%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 West Coast 6.3 72%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 Richmond 4.0 62%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
18
 Essendon 3.0 69%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 5 games of Round 15, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Fremantle 13∗ 1 – 144.4%
+5.7
1
2
 Sydney 12∗ 2 – 143.7%
+6.1
2
3
 Hawthorn 9∗ 4 1 113.5%
+6.2
3
4
 Geelong 9 6 – 120.6%
+6.1
4
5
 Adelaide 9∗ 5 – 113.2%
+5.6
5
6
 Melbourne 9 6 – 104.2%
+4.0
7
7
 Brisbane Lions 8∗ 6 – 108.4%
+5.3
6
8
 Western Bulldogs 8∗ 6 – 90.7%
+4.5
8
9
 Gold Coast 7∗ 7 – 105.3%
+4.4
9
10
 Collingwood 6∗ 7 1 101.6%
+4.6
11
11
 St Kilda 6∗ 8 – 102.4%
+5.1
10
12
 GWS 6∗ 8 – 100.3%
+4.7
13
13
 Carlton 6∗ 8 – 91.1%
+4.9
12
14
 North Melbourne 6∗ 7 – 88.5%
+3.6
14
15
 Port Adelaide 4∗ 10 – 98.6%
+4.1
15
16
 West Coast 4∗ 10 – 72.7%
+2.3
16
17
 Richmond 2∗ 11 – 61.1%
+2.0
17
18
 Essendon 1∗ 13 – 70.4%
+2.0
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4 6 4

97 29.5908 29.59 25.7069 25.71 76.9841 77.0%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 4

96 29.5362 29.54 25.1281 25.13 76.1905 76.2%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 6 4

96 20.2982 20.30 25.7869 25.79 76.1905 76.2%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4 6 4

93 29.8747 29.87 25.8773 25.88 73.8095 73.8%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 6 4

92 30.8524 30.85 25.6534 25.65 73.0159 73.0%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 4

92 29.7990 29.80 26.5079 26.51 73.0159 73.0%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4 6 4

92 28.7720 28.77 26.0561 26.06 73.0159 73.0%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 4

92 28.5460 28.55 25.7611 25.76 73.0159 73.0%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4 5 4

92 25.5977 25.60 26.5681 26.57 73.0159 73.0%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4 6 4

91 30.3848 30.38 26.1856 26.19 72.2222 72.2%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5 6 4

91 28.4951 28.50 27.5794 27.58 72.2222 72.2%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 7 4

91 27.2877 27.29 25.9440 25.94 72.2222 72.2%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4 6 4

90 28.3282 28.33 26.4368 26.44 71.4286 71.4%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 6 4

89 28.7315 28.73 26.8274 26.83 70.6349 70.6%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 4

89 23.9628 23.96 27.8874 27.89 †1 71.2000 71.2%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5 6 4

88 28.9553 28.96 25.5038 25.50 69.8413 69.8%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5 5 4

88 28.6692 28.67 25.8899 25.89 69.8413 69.8%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6 5 4

88 27.0582 27.06 26.1585 26.16 69.8413 69.8%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 5 4

88 25.7018 25.70 25.9889 25.99 69.8413 69.8%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 4

87 27.6648 27.66 26.8889 26.89 69.0476 69.0%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4 5

87 22.0907 22.09 26.9587 26.96 †5 71.9008 71.9%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 5 3

86 27.2022 27.20 27.6154 27.62 68.2540 68.3%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 3

86 26.9894 26.99 26.1349 26.13 68.2540 68.3%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4 5 4

86 24.3747 24.37 26.1595 26.16 68.2540 68.3%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4 5 3

86 23.5610 23.56 27.0725 27.07 68.2540 68.3%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 6 4

86 22.4245 22.42 26.4524 26.45 68.2540 68.3%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 4

85 24.7761 24.78 26.2974 26.30 67.4603 67.5%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4 5 3

84 25.5857 25.59 27.7381 27.74 66.6667 66.7%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5 5 4

82 21.1783 21.18 27.0476 27.05 65.0794 65.1%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 5 3

81 22.1886 22.19 26.9829 26.98 †9 69.2308 69.2%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 4

71 23.2312 23.23 27.4010 27.40 †25 70.2970 70.3%

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