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New model: The Flag

Posted on March 9, 2020March 9, 2020 by Max Barry

The second new model for season 2020 is The Flag, which runs numbers on a truly bewildering number of different sports and leagues, including AFL. You can also find author Nick Fredriksson on Twitter.

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Wins % Range
1
 Fremantle 19.0 138%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Sydney 18.0 137%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Brisbane Lions 16.0 122%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
4
 Hawthorn 16.0 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
5
 Geelong 15.0 123%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–6
6
 Adelaide 15.0 117%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–7
7
 Melbourne 15.0 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–7
8
 Western Bulldogs 13.5 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
9
 Collingwood 13.0 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
10
 Carlton 12.5 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
11
 St Kilda 10.0 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
12
 GWS 10.0 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
13
 Gold Coast 9.0 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
14
 North Melbourne 9.0 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
15
 Port Adelaide 7.0 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 West Coast 4.0 69%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 Richmond 3.0 62%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
18
 Essendon 2.0 64%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 1 game of Round 26, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Fremantle 19 4 – 137.2%
+0.0
1
2
 Sydney 18 5 – 136.1%
+-0.0
2
3
 Brisbane Lions 16 7 – 121.7%
+-0.0
3
4
 Hawthorn 15 6 2 120.1%
+0.0
4
5
 Geelong 15 8 – 122.3%
+-0.0
5
6
 Adelaide 15 8 – 117.3%
+-0.0
6
7
 Melbourne 15 8 – 109.6%
+0.0
7
8
 Western Bulldogs 13 9 1 95.4%
+-0.0
8
9
 Collingwood 12 9 2 102.4%
+0.0
9
10
 Carlton 12 10 1 101.5%
+-0.0
10
11
 St Kilda 10 13 – 102.8%
+0.0
11
12
 GWS 10 13 – 98.9%
+0.0
12
13
 Gold Coast 9 14 – 94.5%
+-0.0
13
14
 North Melbourne 9 14 – 88.8%
+0.0
14
15
 Port Adelaide 7 16 – 88.0%
+-0.0
15
16
 West Coast 4 19 – 69.2%
+0.0
16
17
 Richmond 3 20 – 62.5%
+0.0
17
18
 Essendon 2 21 – 64.6%
+0.0
18

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 7 6 6 9 5 0 2 2

161 51.7971 51.80 25.2772 25.28 74.8837 74.9%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 6 5 5 5 9 6 7 7 6 9 6 0 2 2

161 35.4729 35.47 25.4980 25.50 74.8837 74.9%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 8 5 9 6 0 2 2

159 54.5080 54.51 25.0692 25.07 73.9535 74.0%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 6 9 6 1 2 2

159 52.9962 53.00 25.2686 25.27 73.9535 74.0%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 5 4 9 6 0 3 2

159 52.7674 52.77 25.9070 25.91 73.9535 74.0%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 5 9 6 0 3 2

158 51.8513 51.85 25.1254 25.13 73.4884 73.5%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 6 4 9 6 0 2 2

158 51.5701 51.57 24.8168 24.82 73.4884 73.5%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 7 9 5 0 2 2

158 48.8236 48.82 25.5231 25.52 73.4884 73.5%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 9 6 8 6 5 9 5 0 3 2

157 53.4943 53.49 24.8827 24.88 73.0233 73.0%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 8 7 5 9 6 0 3 2

157 50.4962 50.50 25.8698 25.87 73.0233 73.0%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 5 8 6 8 7 5 9 6 0 3 2

156 53.0037 53.00 26.2233 26.22 72.5581 72.6%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 6 5 9 6 0 2 2

155 55.6211 55.62 25.5867 25.59 72.0930 72.1%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 6 5 9 6 0 3 2

154 53.5297 53.53 25.6797 25.68 71.6279 71.6%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 4 6 8 6 1 3 2

154 47.3999 47.40 26.0806 26.08 71.6279 71.6%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 8 6 7 6 6 9 6 1 2 2

154 40.3146 40.31 26.4019 26.40 †1 71.9626 72.0%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 5 8 6 8 6 5 9 6 0 3 2

153 51.5256 51.53 25.3042 25.30 71.1628 71.2%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5 6 5 6 6 8 6 8 6 4 9 6 1 2 2

153 50.6746 50.67 25.3551 25.36 71.1628 71.2%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 5 9 5 0 3 2

153 50.6516 50.65 25.5074 25.51 71.1628 71.2%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 7 6 5 5 8 6 8 7 6 9 6

153 48.8410 48.84 25.6301 25.63 †8 73.9130 73.9%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 6 8 7 7 6 6 9 6 1 3 1

153 41.7401 41.74 25.8293 25.83 71.1628 71.2%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 6 6 9 7 0 2 1

152 49.0826 49.08 25.4395 25.44 70.6977 70.7%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 9 5 1 1 2

152 47.4176 47.42 25.0915 25.09 †2 71.3615 71.4%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 8 5 7 7 4 9 6 0 2 2

151 50.7261 50.73 26.0985 26.10 †5 71.9048 71.9%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 6 6 9 5 1 3 2

150 47.2142 47.21 26.3767 26.38 69.7674 69.8%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5 5 6 6 5 8 6 8 7 6 9 5 1 3 2

150 47.1864 47.19 26.6512 26.65 69.7674 69.8%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 9 7 8 6 6 9 6 1 3 2

150 44.4927 44.49 26.0728 26.07 †9 72.8155 72.8%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 5 4 6 5 7 6 7 7 4 9 6 1 2 1

148 49.5763 49.58 26.5372 26.54 68.8372 68.8%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 4 5 5 8 6 8 5 6 9 5 1 1 2

148 46.4651 46.47 26.0326 26.03 68.8372 68.8%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 5 5 5 8 5 8 6 4 8 6 0 3 2

146 44.0563 44.06 26.1340 26.13 67.9070 67.9%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4 5 4 5 5 7 6 7 6 5 9 6 0 3

146 40.4592 40.46 27.0359 27.04 †2 68.5446 68.5%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 8 6 5 9 6 1 3 2

138 47.0476 47.05 26.4105 26.41 †25 72.6316 72.6%

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About Squiggle

Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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