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New model: The Flag

Posted on March 9, 2020March 9, 2020 by Max Barry

The second new model for season 2020 is The Flag, which runs numbers on a truly bewildering number of different sports and leagues, including AFL. You can also find author Nick Fredriksson on Twitter.

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Wins % Range
1
 Sydney 17.0 142%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
2
 Hawthorn 16.1 126%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–3
3
 Fremantle 16.2 122%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–4
4
 Brisbane Lions 14.5 124%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
5
 Geelong 13.9 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5
6
 Gold Coast 12.8 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–8
7
 Collingwood 12.6 108%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–7
8
 Adelaide 12.3 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–10
9
 Western Bulldogs 12.2 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–11
10
 Melbourne 12.1 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–11
11
 St Kilda 11.5 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–12
12
 GWS 10.9 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–13
13
 Port Adelaide 10.2 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–14
14
 North Melbourne 10.1 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–14
15
 Carlton 7.4 86%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–16
16
 Essendon 5.9 75%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
17
 West Coast 6.1 66%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–18
18
 Richmond 4.9 65%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18

After 1 game of Round 9, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Fremantle 8 1 – 131.6%
+8.2
3
2
 Sydney 7∗ 1 – 165.5%
+10.0
1
3
 Hawthorn 6 2 1 116.8%
+9.6
2
4
 Brisbane Lions 5∗ 3 – 126.0%
+9.5
4
5
 Gold Coast 5∗ 3 – 116.0%
+7.8
6
6
 Geelong 5∗ 3 – 114.6%
+8.9
5
7
 Melbourne 5∗ 3 – 100.2%
+7.1
10
8
 Collingwood 4∗ 3 1 108.6%
+8.1
7
9
 St Kilda 4∗ 4 – 114.9%
+7.5
11
10
 North Melbourne 4∗ 4 – 106.1%
+6.1
14
11
 Adelaide 4∗ 4 – 96.6%
+8.3
8
12
 Western Bulldogs 4∗ 4 – 91.5%
+8.2
9
13
 Port Adelaide 3∗ 5 – 110.9%
+7.2
13
14
 GWS 3∗ 5 – 88.2%
+7.9
12
15
 West Coast 2∗ 6 – 59.3%
+4.1
17
16
 Carlton 1∗ 7 – 78.1%
+6.4
15
17
 Essendon 1∗ 7 – 70.2%
+4.9
16
18
 Richmond 1∗ 7 – 60.0%
+3.9
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 1

61 19.7938 19.79 24.8255 24.83 83.5616 83.6%
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 0

59 19.9044 19.90 26.0879 26.09 80.8219 80.8%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 0

58 13.3084 13.31 25.8803 25.88 79.4521 79.5%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 1

57 20.2688 20.27 25.5786 25.58 78.0822 78.1%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 1

57 20.1106 20.11 26.1647 26.16 78.0822 78.1%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 0

57 18.2748 18.27 26.5262 26.53 78.0822 78.1%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 0

56 20.7783 20.78 26.2879 26.29 76.7123 76.7%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 1

56 19.5011 19.50 26.3899 26.39 76.7123 76.7%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 1

56 19.4647 19.46 27.2603 27.26 76.7123 76.7%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 1

56 18.3664 18.37 26.3362 26.34 76.7123 76.7%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 1

56 13.6649 13.66 27.4247 27.42 76.7123 76.7%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 0

55 20.1814 20.18 27.0277 27.03 75.3425 75.3%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 1

55 18.8163 18.82 26.3474 26.35 75.3425 75.3%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 0

55 17.8659 17.87 26.8512 26.85 75.3425 75.3%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 0

55 17.0753 17.08 26.3700 26.37 75.3425 75.3%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 1

54 18.3897 18.39 27.7175 27.72 73.9726 74.0%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 1

54 17.6700 17.67 27.6438 27.64 73.9726 74.0%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 1

54 16.7100 16.71 27.6364 27.64 73.9726 74.0%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 1

54 15.6801 15.68 27.0041 27.00 73.9726 74.0%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 1

52 17.7880 17.79 26.7378 26.74 71.2329 71.2%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 0

52 17.5834 17.58 27.3564 27.36 71.2329 71.2%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 0

52 16.7103 16.71 27.4521 27.45 71.2329 71.2%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 0

52 16.6793 16.68 27.8356 27.84 71.2329 71.2%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 1

51 17.2939 17.29 26.9914 26.99 69.8630 69.9%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 1

51 16.1104 16.11 29.3562 29.36 69.8630 69.9%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 1

51 15.1376 15.14 27.3252 27.33 69.8630 69.9%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 1

51 14.3398 14.34 27.5740 27.57 69.8630 69.9%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 1

51 14.3060 14.31 27.3863 27.39 69.8630 69.9%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 1

47 13.5664 13.57 27.4795 27.48 64.3836 64.4%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 1

45 11.4218 11.42 28.4219 28.42 †9 70.3125 70.3%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 1

35 13.1506 13.15 29.1667 29.17 †25 72.9167 72.9%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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