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New model: The Flag

Posted on March 9, 2020March 9, 2020 by Max Barry

The second new model for season 2020 is The Flag, which runs numbers on a truly bewildering number of different sports and leagues, including AFL. You can also find author Nick Fredriksson on Twitter.

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Wins % Range
1
 Fremantle 19.3 140%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Sydney 16.4 129%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–3
3
 Hawthorn 16.0 122%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–3
4
 Adelaide 15.0 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–5
5
 Brisbane Lions 14.9 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–5
6
 Melbourne 14.3 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–7
7
 Geelong 13.4 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–9
8
 Collingwood 12.7 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
9
 Western Bulldogs 12.9 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–9
10
 GWS 11.4 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–11
11
 St Kilda 11.1 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–11
12
 Carlton 10.5 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–13
13
 Gold Coast 9.8 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–14
14
 North Melbourne 9.8 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
15
 Port Adelaide 8.5 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 West Coast 5.7 73%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 Richmond 3.4 63%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
18
 Essendon 2.5 66%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 7 games of Round 19, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Fremantle 16 2 – 142.0%
+3.3
1
2
 Sydney 13 5 – 128.3%
+3.4
2
3
 Hawthorn 12 5 1 118.4%
+3.5
3
4
 Brisbane Lions 12 6 – 117.8%
+2.9
5
5
 Adelaide 12 6 – 117.2%
+3.0
4
6
 Melbourne 12 6 – 109.6%
+2.3
6
7
 Collingwood 10 7 1 105.7%
+2.2
8
8
 Geelong 10 8 – 116.2%
+3.4
7
9
 Western Bulldogs 10∗ 7 – 92.3%
+2.9
9
10
 St Kilda 8 10 – 104.0%
+3.1
11
11
 GWS 8∗ 9 – 101.6%
+3.4
10
12
 Carlton 8 10 – 91.1%
+2.5
12
13
 North Melbourne 8 10 – 90.9%
+1.8
14
14
 Gold Coast 7∗ 10 – 95.6%
+2.8
13
15
 Port Adelaide 6 12 – 99.2%
+2.5
15
16
 West Coast 4 14 – 72.1%
+1.7
16
17
 Richmond 2 16 – 61.7%
+1.4
17
18
 Essendon 1∗ 16 – 66.6%
+1.5
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 6

123 40.6649 40.66 24.8307 24.83 76.8750 76.9%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 6 5 5 5 9 6

122 27.1715 27.17 25.0253 25.03 76.2500 76.2%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 6 6 6 8 7

121 42.3213 42.32 25.3562 25.36 75.6250 75.6%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 8 6

121 39.5067 39.51 24.4485 24.45 75.6250 75.6%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6

119 41.5249 41.52 24.9193 24.92 74.3750 74.4%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 9 6

119 40.2686 40.27 24.9996 25.00 74.3750 74.4%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 6

118 41.8302 41.83 24.9354 24.94 73.7500 73.8%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6

118 39.2684 39.27 24.8962 24.90 73.7500 73.8%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 5 8 6

118 36.4332 36.43 25.5164 25.52 73.7500 73.8%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6

117 42.7505 42.75 25.2619 25.26 73.1250 73.1%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 7 6 5 5 8 6

117 36.1626 36.16 25.3281 25.33 73.1250 73.1%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 5 8 6

116 39.7194 39.72 26.2437 26.24 72.5000 72.5%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 7

116 39.1195 39.12 25.7000 25.70 72.5000 72.5%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6

116 38.0535 38.05 25.7011 25.70 72.5000 72.5%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 6 5 6 5 8 6

115 39.8917 39.89 25.6282 25.63 71.8750 71.9%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5 6 5 6 6 8 6

115 38.6335 38.63 24.9419 24.94 71.8750 71.9%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 8 6

115 30.3120 30.31 25.9686 25.97 †1 72.3270 72.3%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5 5 5 6 5 8 6

114 38.9934 38.99 24.9536 24.95 71.2500 71.2%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 5 8 6

114 37.6279 37.63 25.2458 25.25 71.2500 71.2%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 8 5

114 35.3913 35.39 26.7780 26.78 †2 72.1519 72.2%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 5

114 34.2438 34.24 25.3769 25.38 71.2500 71.2%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 6 8 6

113 31.2850 31.29 25.4694 25.47 70.6250 70.6%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4 5 5 5 6 8 6

112 35.2462 35.25 25.3800 25.38 70.0000 70.0%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 5 4 6 5 7 6

111 38.3319 38.33 26.4530 26.45 69.3750 69.4%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 4 5 5 8 6

111 36.4969 36.50 25.5125 25.51 69.3750 69.4%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4 5 5 5 5 8 6

110 35.6506 35.65 26.5813 26.58 68.7500 68.8%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4 5 4 5 5 7 6

110 31.3453 31.35 26.5009 26.50 68.7500 68.8%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 5 5 5 8 5

109 33.6390 33.64 25.5410 25.54 68.1250 68.1%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5 5 6 6 5 8 6

109 32.8801 32.88 26.7688 26.77 68.1250 68.1%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 9 6

108 33.1979 33.20 25.9868 25.99 †9 71.5232 71.5%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6

97 35.7651 35.77 26.2481 26.25 †25 71.8519 71.9%

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About Squiggle

Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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