Essendon v North Melbourne
2025-05-01 19:30:00 +10:00
Docklands

9.11

65

9.8

62

Essendon won by 3 points

IN

Tsatas

Shiel

OUT

IN

Maley

Phillips

Scott

Wardlaw

Curtis

Tucker

OUT

	Tip	Win %	Margin	✓	MAE	Bits
s10		70%	19 points	✓	15.8	0.48
Aggregate		70%	19 points	✓	16.1	0.48
		80%	25 points	✓	22.5	0.68
		80%	28 points	✓	25.0	0.68
		79%	29 points	✓	26.1	0.67
		77%	24 points	✓	20.8	0.63
		77%	26 points	✓	23.0	0.62
		76%	28 points	✓	25.0	0.60
		75%	22 points	✓	19.4	0.59
Punters		75%	21 points	✓	18.1	0.58
		73%	22 points	✓	18.5	0.54
		72%	22 points	✓	19.3	0.54
		72%	24 points	✓	20.6	0.53
		71%	19 points	✓	16.0	0.51
		71%	20 points	✓	16.9	0.51
		70%	18 points	✓	15.0	0.48
		69%	19 points	✓	16.0	0.46
		69%	19 points	✓	16.0	0.46
		68%	17 points	✓	14.0	0.45
		67%	17 points	✓	13.6	0.43
		67%	15 points	✓	11.6	0.42
		66%	21 points	✓	18.0	0.40
		66%	13 points	✓	9.5	0.39
		65%	20 points	✓	17.0	0.37
		60%	10 points	✓	7.2	0.27
		59%	8 points	✓	5.4	0.24
		57%	7 points	✓	4.0	0.19
		57%	3 points	✓	0.3	0.18

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

Drawn games are counted as correct tips.