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New model: The Flag

Posted on March 9, 2020March 9, 2020 by Max Barry

The second new model for season 2020 is The Flag, which runs numbers on a truly bewildering number of different sports and leagues, including AFL. You can also find author Nick Fredriksson on Twitter.

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Wins % Range
1
Fremantle 20.0 145%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1
2
Sydney 17.4 132%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2
3
Hawthorn 16.3 124%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3
4
Adelaide 14.8 117%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
4–5
5
Brisbane Lions 14.9 116%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
4–6
6
Geelong 14.5 122%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
4–7
7
Melbourne 14.2 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
6–7
8
Western Bulldogs 13.6 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
8–9
9
Collingwood 13.2 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
8–9
10
St Kilda 11.1 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
10–11
11
Carlton 11.2 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
10–12
12
GWS 10.7 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
11–12
13
North Melbourne 8.8 87%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
13
14
Gold Coast 8.0 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
14
15
Port Adelaide 7.4 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15
16
West Coast 4.8 71%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16
17
Richmond 3.3 62%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17–18
18
Essendon 2.8 64%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17–18

After Round 21, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
Fremantle 18 2 – 147.3%
+2.0
1
2
Sydney 15 5 – 129.5%
+2.4
2
3
Hawthorn 14 5 1 123.7%
+1.8
3
4
Adelaide 13 7 – 117.6%
+1.8
4
5
Brisbane Lions 13 7 – 114.8%
+1.9
5
6
Melbourne 13 7 – 107.8%
+1.2
7
7
Geelong 12 8 – 117.2%
+2.5
6
8
Western Bulldogs 12 8 – 94.8%
+1.6
8
9
Collingwood 11 8 1 105.6%
+1.7
9
10
Carlton 10 10 – 97.0%
+1.2
11
11
St Kilda 9 11 – 104.3%
+2.1
10
12
GWS 9 11 – 99.0%
+1.7
12
13
North Melbourne 8 12 – 89.3%
+0.8
13
14
Gold Coast 7 13 – 94.7%
+1.0
14
15
Port Adelaide 6 14 – 95.1%
+1.4
15
16
West Coast 4 16 – 70.8%
+0.8
16
17
Richmond 3 17 – 62.8%
+0.3
17
18
Essendon 2 18 – 64.4%
+0.8
18

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 7 6

137 44.5362 44.54 24.8383 24.84 76.1111 76.1%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 6 5 5 5 9 6 7 7

136 30.1495 30.15 25.1074 25.11 75.5556 75.6%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 5

135 46.3588 46.36 25.3833 25.38 75.0000 75.0%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 8

135 46.0100 46.01 24.8389 24.84 75.0000 75.0%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 6

135 43.6060 43.61 24.3763 24.38 75.0000 75.0%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 7

133 45.4709 45.47 24.9186 24.92 73.8889 73.9%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 9 6 8 6

133 44.8559 44.86 24.9393 24.94 73.8889 73.9%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 7

133 43.5816 43.58 24.8716 24.87 73.8889 73.9%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 7

133 40.8366 40.84 25.3134 25.31 73.8889 73.9%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 8 7

132 43.5030 43.50 25.3944 25.39 73.3333 73.3%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 7 6 5 5 8 6 8 7

132 41.2723 41.27 25.3471 25.35 73.3333 73.3%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 6

131 46.7283 46.73 25.3595 25.36 72.7778 72.8%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 5 8 6 8 7

131 44.4082 44.41 25.9722 25.97 72.7778 72.8%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 6

129 44.4209 44.42 25.4064 25.41 71.6667 71.7%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5 6 5 6 6 8 6 8 6

129 43.1114 43.11 24.9620 24.96 71.6667 71.7%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5 5 5 6 5 8 6 8 7

129 42.8351 42.84 25.1369 25.14 71.6667 71.7%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 5 8 6 8 6

128 42.3680 42.37 25.0251 25.03 71.1111 71.1%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 8 5 7 7

128 40.5746 40.57 26.2573 26.26 †3 72.3164 72.3%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 4

128 40.2758 40.28 25.8837 25.88 71.1111 71.1%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 6

128 39.7678 39.77 25.0611 25.06 71.1111 71.1%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 8 6 7 6

128 33.6929 33.69 26.0615 26.06 †1 71.5084 71.5%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 6

127 40.5438 40.54 25.2928 25.29 70.5556 70.6%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 6 8 7 7 6

127 34.6936 34.69 25.6033 25.60 70.5556 70.6%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 5 4 6 5 7 6 7 7

125 41.3858 41.39 26.4068 26.41 69.4444 69.4%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 4 5 5 8 6 8 5

124 39.7559 39.76 25.7000 25.70 68.8889 68.9%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 6

124 39.4376 39.44 26.3167 26.32 68.8889 68.9%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5 5 6 6 5 8 6 8 7

124 37.6484 37.65 26.4778 26.48 68.8889 68.9%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 5 5 5 8 5 8 6

123 37.4389 37.44 25.6217 25.62 68.3333 68.3%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 9 7 8 6

123 36.9842 36.98 25.7953 25.80 †9 71.9298 71.9%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4 5 4 5 5 7 6 7 6

123 34.1714 34.17 26.6897 26.69 68.3333 68.3%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 8 6

112 39.6990 39.70 26.1129 26.11 †25 72.2581 72.3%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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