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New model: The Flag

Posted on March 9, 2020March 9, 2020 by Max Barry

The second new model for season 2020 is The Flag, which runs numbers on a truly bewildering number of different sports and leagues, including AFL. You can also find author Nick Fredriksson on Twitter.

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Wins % Range
1
 Fremantle 18.3 134%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
2
 Sydney 17.3 140%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
3
 Hawthorn 15.2 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
4
 Geelong 14.8 125%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4
5
 Adelaide 13.4 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–6
6
 Western Bulldogs 13.2 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–8
7
 Brisbane Lions 12.8 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–9
8
 Melbourne 12.4 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–10
9
 Gold Coast 12.2 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–10
10
 GWS 11.4 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–11
11
 Collingwood 11.3 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–11
12
 St Kilda 10.5 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12
13
 Carlton 10.0 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
14
 North Melbourne 9.7 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
15
 Port Adelaide 8.5 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 West Coast 7.2 73%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 Richmond 4.6 63%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18
18
 Essendon 4.0 71%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18

After 5 games of Round 13, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Fremantle 12 1 – 147.9%
+6.3
1
2
 Sydney 10∗ 2 – 152.4%
+7.3
2
3
 Hawthorn 8 4 1 113.2%
+6.7
3
4
 Geelong 8 5 – 120.2%
+6.8
4
5
 Western Bulldogs 8 5 – 94.6%
+5.2
6
6
 Gold Coast 7∗ 5 – 112.2%
+5.2
9
7
 Adelaide 7∗ 5 – 107.4%
+6.4
5
8
 Brisbane Lions 7 6 – 106.2%
+5.8
7
9
 Melbourne 7∗ 5 – 101.8%
+5.4
8
10
 GWS 6∗ 6 – 103.2%
+5.4
10
11
 Collingwood 5∗ 6 1 99.9%
+5.8
11
12
 St Kilda 5∗ 7 – 102.3%
+5.5
12
13
 North Melbourne 5∗ 7 – 87.7%
+4.7
14
14
 Port Adelaide 4∗ 8 – 101.4%
+4.5
15
15
 Carlton 4∗ 8 – 87.5%
+6.0
13
16
 West Coast 4 9 – 71.3%
+3.2
16
17
 Richmond 2∗ 10 – 60.4%
+2.6
17
18
 Essendon 1∗ 11 – 70.5%
+3.0
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 2

85 25.6603 25.66 26.7255 26.73 76.5766 76.6%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 2

85 24.6591 24.66 25.9443 25.94 76.5766 76.6%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 3

83 16.9932 16.99 26.9632 26.96 74.7748 74.8%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 2

81 25.0615 25.06 26.9416 26.94 72.9730 73.0%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 2

81 21.2868 21.29 27.6058 27.61 72.9730 73.0%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 2

80 26.0018 26.00 26.5057 26.51 72.0721 72.1%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 2

80 24.4666 24.47 27.1810 27.18 72.0721 72.1%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 2

80 24.2209 24.22 27.6937 27.69 72.0721 72.1%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 2

80 23.7490 23.75 26.8497 26.85 72.0721 72.1%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 2

80 19.3158 19.32 27.4414 27.44 72.0721 72.1%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 2

79 25.4013 25.40 27.3635 27.36 71.1712 71.2%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 3

79 22.4863 22.49 28.5135 28.51 71.1712 71.2%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 2

78 23.1059 23.11 27.6571 27.66 70.2703 70.3%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 2

78 22.0150 22.02 27.2301 27.23 70.2703 70.3%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 2

78 20.3314 20.33 28.6277 28.63 †1 70.9091 70.9%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 2

77 23.5162 23.52 28.0680 28.07 69.3694 69.4%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 3

77 23.2360 23.24 27.1141 27.11 69.3694 69.4%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 3

77 20.1482 20.15 27.2135 27.21 69.3694 69.4%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 2

76 23.4827 23.48 28.0134 28.01 68.4685 68.5%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 3

76 22.7644 22.76 27.6036 27.60 68.4685 68.5%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 3

76 22.2270 22.23 27.2609 27.26 68.4685 68.5%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 2

76 18.8458 18.85 28.2445 28.24 68.4685 68.5%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 2

75 23.4626 23.46 26.8302 26.83 67.5676 67.6%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 2

75 22.8320 22.83 27.3784 27.38 67.5676 67.6%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 2

75 19.5163 19.52 27.4117 27.41 67.5676 67.6%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 2

74 21.6593 21.66 29.0000 29.00 66.6667 66.7%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 2

74 18.4171 18.42 27.8297 27.83 66.6667 66.7%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 2

73 19.6501 19.65 27.6673 27.67 65.7658 65.8%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 3

71 18.2988 18.30 27.7941 27.79 †9 69.6078 69.6%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 3

71 17.8147 17.81 28.1351 28.14 63.9640 64.0%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 2

59 18.6493 18.65 29.0349 29.03 †25 68.6047 68.6%

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