Here is a January 1 ladder prediction:
WINS | |||
1. | RICHMOND | 14.8 | |
2. | MELBOURNE | 14.8 | |
3. | GWS | 14.3 | |
4. | WEST COAST | 14.1 | |
5. | GEELONG | 13.6 | |
6. | COLLINGWOOD | 13.2 | |
7. | ESSENDON | 13.0 | |
8. | ADELAIDE | 12.8 | |
9. | Hawthorn | 11.9 | |
10. | Port Adelaide | 11.6 | |
11. | North Melbourne | 10.6 | |
12. | Brisbane | 9.5 | |
13. | St Kilda | 9.5 | |
14. | Western Bulldogs | 8.7 | |
15. | Sydney | 8.3 | |
16. | Fremantle | 7.3 | |
17. | Carlton | 4.8 | |
18. | Gold Coast | 3.6 |
Some notes:
- Teams are ranked by average wins from 100,000 simulated seasons.
- Unlike a regular ladder, it doesn’t round off wins to whole numbers and tie-break on percentage. That’s why it’s different to the quick-and-dirty Live Squiggle Ladder Predictor you may see on the right. This way is better.
- That said! Historically, season-long predictions aren’t much more accurate than tipping everyone to win the same number as games as they did last year. So, you know.
- This takes into account off-season list changes.
- Predictions will continue to evolve as Squiggle is able to factor in pre-season results, major off-season injuries, and Round 1 team selections.
- Sydney are that low because they tailed off badly in 2018 despite being able to put out something close to a full-strength team most weeks, and did not significantly bolster their team in the trading period.