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Which Games Matter Most?

Posted on August 4, 2017April 3, 2018 by Max Barry

A hot new Arc take on which are the most significant games in terms of finals places:

Finals chances and top-four hopes are on the line for a lot of clubs this weekend. We look at how much each game matters for every team dreaming of playing in September.

Source: Footy Forensics AFL finals swing which games matter most

CategoriesThe Arc

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Wins % Range
1
 Western Bulldogs 15.5 125%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–3
2
 Brisbane Lions 14.4 124%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–8
3
 Gold Coast 14.0 117%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–7
4
 Geelong 13.9 117%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–5
5
 Hawthorn 13.5 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–8
6
 Adelaide 12.9 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–10
7
 Collingwood 13.0 108%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–7
8
 GWS 13.0 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–10
9
 Sydney 12.8 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–9
10
 Fremantle 12.2 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–10
11
 Melbourne 10.3 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–15
12
 St Kilda 10.4 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–14
13
 Carlton 10.0 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–14
14
 Port Adelaide 9.6 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–15
15
 North Melbourne 8.9 85%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14–16
16
 Essendon 8.1 81%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14–17
17
 Richmond 7.5 78%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–18
18
 West Coast 7.0 75%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–18

After 3 games of Round 1, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Western Bulldogs 2 – – 154.1%
+13.5
1
2
 Sydney 1∗ – – 191.3%
+11.8
9
3
 Gold Coast 1∗ – – 181.2%
+13.0
3
4
 Collingwood 1∗ – – 118.2%
+12.0
7
5
 Hawthorn 1 1 – 117.1%
+12.5
5
6
 GWS 1 1 – 76.4%
+12.0
8
7
 Carlton 1 1 – 70.9%
+9.0
13
8
 Brisbane Lions –∗ 1 – 95.5%
+14.4
2
9
 Richmond –∗ 1 – 94.7%
+7.5
17
10
 St Kilda –∗ 1 – 84.6%
+10.4
12
11
 Essendon –∗ 1 – 57.2%
+8.1
16
12
 Geelong –∗ 1 – 55.2%
+13.9
4
13
 Adelaide –∗ – –
+12.9
6
14
 Fremantle –∗ – –
+12.2
10
15
 Melbourne –∗ – –
+10.3
11
16
 North Melbourne –∗ – –
+8.9
15
17
 Port Adelaide –∗ – –
+9.6
14
18
 West Coast –∗ – –
+7.0
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
HBin

4 3

7 2.3390 2.34 33.9250 33.92 87.5000 87.5%
AFLalytics

4 3

7 2.1775 2.18 30.6163 30.62 87.5000 87.5%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 3

7 1.2111 1.21 31.3875 31.39 87.5000 87.5%
Graft

3 3

6 2.3738 2.37 32.0000 32.00 75.0000 75.0%
Glicko Ratings

3 3

6 2.1965 2.20 31.5138 31.51 75.0000 75.0%
What Snoo Thinks

3 3

6 2.1959 2.20 29.0837 29.08 75.0000 75.0%
Matter of Stats

3 3

6 2.0073 2.01 32.2900 32.29 75.0000 75.0%
AFL Scorigami

3 3

6 1.9695 1.97 31.2050 31.20 75.0000 75.0%
Drop Kick Data

3 3

6 1.8372 1.84 30.2462 30.25 75.0000 75.0%
footycharts

3 3

6 1.7981 1.80 31.8650 31.86 75.0000 75.0%
Elo Predicts!

3 3

6 1.7846 1.78 36.6250 36.62 75.0000 75.0%
Wheelo Ratings

3 3

6 1.3117 1.31 32.1750 32.17 75.0000 75.0%
Hyperion

3 3

6 1.2685 1.27 35.1250 35.12 75.0000 75.0%
The Cruncher

2 3

5 2.4837 2.48 29.9937 29.99 62.5000 62.5%
Don't Blame the Data

2 3

5 2.3715 2.37 33.8050 33.80 62.5000 62.5%
The Wooden Finger

2 3

5 2.1167 2.12 30.7500 30.75 62.5000 62.5%
Stattraction

2 3

5 2.0433 2.04 34.1388 34.14 62.5000 62.5%
s10

2 3

5 1.9017 1.90 32.4537 32.45 62.5000 62.5%
Aggregate

2 3

5 1.7976 1.80 32.6737 32.67 62.5000 62.5%
Informed Stats

2 3

5 1.7681 1.77 36.1250 36.12 62.5000 62.5%
Massey Ratings

2 3

5 1.5822 1.58 35.3750 35.38 62.5000 62.5%
The Footycast

2 3

5 1.5020 1.50 35.7875 35.79 62.5000 62.5%
Punters

2 3

5 1.4555 1.46 33.3850 33.38 62.5000 62.5%
Live Ladders

2 3

5 1.3673 1.37 33.0000 33.00 62.5000 62.5%
In The Game

2 3

5 1.3001 1.30 33.9350 33.94 62.5000 62.5%
PlusSixOne

2 3

5 1.1313 1.13 35.5625 35.56 62.5000 62.5%
ZaphBot

2 3

5 1.0864 1.09 40.6250 40.62 62.5000 62.5%
AFL Lab

2 3

5 1.0186 1.02 37.0950 37.09 62.5000 62.5%
Cheap Stats

3 2

5 0.6272 0.63 33.3750 33.38 62.5000 62.5%
Squiggle

1 3

4 1.2268 1.23 36.1962 36.20 50.0000 50.0%
Winnable

1 3

4 0.9274 0.93 37.2563 37.26 50.0000 50.0%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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