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Which Games Matter Most?

Posted on August 4, 2017April 3, 2018 by Max Barry

A hot new Arc take on which are the most significant games in terms of finals places:

Finals chances and top-four hopes are on the line for a lot of clubs this weekend. We look at how much each game matters for every team dreaming of playing in September.

Source: Footy Forensics AFL finals swing which games matter most

CategoriesThe Arc

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Wins % Range
1
Collingwood 17.8 134%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1–2
2
Geelong 16.4 131%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2–3
3
Brisbane Lions 15.5 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1–6
4
Adelaide 15.0 129%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3–6
5
Western Bulldogs 15.0 131%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3–7
6
Gold Coast 15.0 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3–6
7
Fremantle 13.3 108%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
7–9
8
Hawthorn 13.0 108%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5–9
9
GWS 12.8 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
7–9
10
Carlton 10.5 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
10–12
11
Essendon 10.0 84%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
10–14
12
St Kilda 9.6 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
10–14
13
Melbourne 9.6 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
11–15
14
Sydney 9.6 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
10–14
15
Port Adelaide 8.7 84%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
13–15
16
North Melbourne 5.6 77%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16–17
17
Richmond 5.7 71%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16–17
18
West Coast 3.5 67%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18

After Round 12, 2025.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
Collingwood 10 2 – 136.9%
+7.8
1
2
Brisbane Lions 9 2 1 114.0%
+6.0
3
3
Adelaide 8 4 – 139.3%
+7.0
4
4
Gold Coast 8∗ 3 – 127.8%
+7.0
6
5
Geelong 8 4 – 124.8%
+8.4
2
6
Hawthorn 7 5 – 110.2%
+6.0
8
7
GWS 7 5 – 109.4%
+5.8
9
8
Fremantle 7 5 – 106.4%
+6.3
7
9
Western Bulldogs 6∗ 5 – 126.5%
+9.0
5
10
Essendon 6∗ 5 – 84.6%
+4.0
11
11
St Kilda 5 7 – 93.1%
+4.6
12
12
Melbourne 5 7 – 87.6%
+4.6
13
13
Carlton 4∗ 7 – 102.8%
+6.5
10
14
Sydney 4 8 – 85.7%
+5.6
14
15
Port Adelaide 4∗ 7 – 79.1%
+4.7
15
16
Richmond 3 9 – 71.1%
+2.7
17
17
North Melbourne 2∗ 8 1 78.1%
+3.1
16
18
West Coast 1 11 – 64.5%
+2.5
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 8 7 7 5 9 6 6 6 6 5

79 17.41 27.64 75.2%
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 8 6 6 4

78 17.40 27.33 74.3%
Winnable

1 8 6 6 7 7 4 9 7 6 6 6 4

77 18.05 27.43 73.3%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 8 7 8 5 7 6 8 5 6 5

77 17.69 27.96 73.3%
Aggregate

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 6 6 6 5

77 16.82 27.57 73.3%
AFL Lab

2 8 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 5 5

77 16.69 28.17 73.3%
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 7 7 8 5 7 7 6 6 6 4

76 18.22 27.52 72.4%
s10

2 8 5 7 7 6 5 7 7 6 5 6 5

76 16.85 27.55 72.4%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 7 6 7 4 9 7 5 6 5 5

76 16.30 28.85 72.4%
Punters

1 8 5 7 7 6 4 7 6 7 6 7 5

76 15.51 27.92 72.4%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 6 7 7 5 7 6 6 5 6 5

75 19.50 27.03 71.4%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 7 7 6 4 8 7 6 6 6 4

75 16.81 27.46 71.4%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 7 5 7 4 7 8 6 5 6 6

75 15.33 29.19 71.4%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 6 7 6 4 6 7 7 6 6 5

74 18.51 26.98 70.5%
Squiggle

1 7 5 8 7 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5

74 15.71 28.24 70.5%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 7 7 7 5 6 6 6 6 5 5

74 13.79 27.69 70.5%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 7 6 8 4 7 8 7 5 5 4

73 16.59 27.95 69.5%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 6 7 6 4 7 6 6 6 6 4

72 16.78 27.19 68.6%
footycharts

2 7 3 8 7 6 5 8 6 6 4 6 4

72 15.74 28.46 68.6%
Stattraction

2 7 4 8 6 6 4 8 7 6 5 5 4

72 14.34 28.55 68.6%
ZaphBot

1 8 6 7 7 6 3 7 7 5 5 7 3

72 13.75 29.08 68.6%
The Footycast

1 7 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 6 5 6 5

71 9.74 30.00 67.6%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 5 6 5

69 15.66 28.22 65.7%
Graft

1 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 6 5 5 5

69 12.90 29.28 65.7%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 6 7 6 4 8 7 6 4 5 4

68 13.24 28.51 64.8%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4

67 12.78 28.85 63.8%
Hyperion

1 7 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 5 3 7 4

67 11.89 29.76 63.8%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 6 7 6 6 6 8 5 3 6 4

66 7.98 30.07 62.9%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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