2023 Results - Squiggle

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Full leaderboard

🏆 Overall champion: @EloPredicts (156 tips)

Runner-up: @thecruncherau (154 tips)

🏆 Bits champion: @AflGlicko (35.76 bits)

Runner-up: @MatterOfStats (33.24)

🏆 MAE champion: @AflGlicko (24.91)

Runner-up: @MatterOfStats (25.09)

The s10 index for 2024, i.e. this year’s top 10 performing models by MAE:

@AflGlicko and @GRAFTRatings re-enter the index, @MatterOfStats & the Squiggle in-house model make it 7 in a row, and @AflLadder misses for the first time since joining in 2018.

Wins

Range

Hawthorn

14.8

118%

1–2

Brisbane Lions

14.7

118%

1–2

Western Bulldogs

14.4

116%

Geelong

14.2

114%

Port Adelaide

12.2

104%

5–11

GWS

12.2

104%

Fremantle

12.3

104%

Sydney

12.2

104%

5–10

Collingwood

11.9

102%

9–10

St Kilda

11.8

102%

8–12

Carlton

11.8

102%

8–12

Adelaide

11.6

101%

9–13

Gold Coast

11.2

98%

11–14

Melbourne

11.1

98%

13–14

Essendon

10.8

96%

West Coast

7.0

80%

16–17

Richmond

6.7

78%

16–17

North Melbourne

5.5

74%

PROJECTIONS

History

Wins

Finish

Adelaide

–

+11.6

Brisbane Lions

–

+14.7

Carlton

–

+11.8

Collingwood

–

+11.9

Essendon

–

+10.8

Fremantle

–

+12.3

Geelong

–

+14.2

Gold Coast

–

+11.2

GWS

–

+12.2

Hawthorn

–

+14.8

Melbourne

–

+11.1

North Melbourne

–

+5.5

Port Adelaide

–

+12.2

Richmond

–

+6.7

St Kilda

–

+11.8

Sydney

–

+12.2

West Coast

–

+7.0

Western Bulldogs

–

+14.4

Models Leaderboard

	Tips	Bits	MAE	Correct
3 8 7 4 8 4 3 9 6 6 5 6 4 5 6 6 7 6 9 7 5 6 5 6 9 2 1 2 1	156	33.35	26.36	72.2%
3 7 6 4 9 4 5 7 6 5 5 6 5 5 6 5 5 4 6 7 6 4 3 6 9 2 1 1 1	143	33.50	26.52	66.2%
2 7 6 4 8 4 4 7 7 5 6 6 4 6 5 6 5 4 6 6 7 5 4 6 8 2 1 1 1	143	26.77	27.31	66.2%
3 5 6 5 9 4 3 8 6 5 5 8 4 3 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 4 6 7 3 1 1 1	143	24.32	27.08	66.2%
2 7 6 4 9 4 5 8 5 6 5 7 4 5 5 5 6 5 7 6 4 5 4 5 7 2 2 1 1	142	26.14	27.23	65.7%
3 7 6 4 8 4 5 9 6 5 5 6 5 5 6 5 7 5 7 6 4 4 3 6 7 2 0 1 0	141	29.77	27.17	65.3%
2 6 6 4 9 4 4 8 5 6 5 7 3 5 6 6 7 4 7 6 5 5 4 6 6 3 0 1 1	141	27.38	27.27	65.3%
s10 3 6 6 4 8 4 5 9 6 5 5 7 5 5 6 6 4 4 7 7 5 3 3 6 7 2 0 1 1	140	30.91	26.70	64.8%
2 6 6 4 7 4 4 9 5 4 6 6 4 4 6 6 4 5 8 8 5 3 5 6 7 2 1 2 1	140	29.73	26.76	64.8%
3 6 6 3 8 4 4 8 5 5 6 7 3 5 6 6 4 4 5 7 6 5 4 6 9 2 1 1 1	140	29.21	26.92	64.8%
2 7 8 4 7 4 3 8 6 6 5 7 3 4 6 6 6 4 7 7 5 5 3 6 6 2 1 1 1	140	27.51	26.79	64.8%
Aggregate 3 6 6 4 9 4 5 8 6 5 5 7 4 4 6 6 4 4 7 6 4 4 3 6 7 2 1 2 1	139	30.19	26.64	64.4%
3 6 6 5 8 4 4 8 7 6 6 7 3 4 6 6 5 4 6 6 4 3 4 6 7 2 2 1	139	28.36	27.23^†2	65.0%
3 7 7 5 9 4 5 8 5 5 5 7 3 4 6 6 5 4 6 5 4 4 3 6 7 2 1 2 1	139	27.41	26.80	64.4%
3 6 6 4 8 4 5 8 6 5 5 6 4 4 6 6 5 4 8 6 4 5 4 5 8 2 0 1 1	139	27.00	27.34	64.4%
1 7 6 4 9 4 5 8 5 5 6 7 4 3 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 3 5 6 9 2 1 2	139	26.60	27.27^†1	64.7%
3 7 5 4 8 4 5 9 5 5 5 7 3 4 6 6 6 3 5 7 7 4 4 6 7 2 0 1 1	139	21.53	28.11	64.4%
3 7 6 4 6 4 4 9 5 6 4 8 6 5 6 6 6 4 5 7 6 2 4 6 9	138	32.10	26.50^†13	68.0%
3 7 6 4 9 3 4 8 5 4 5 6 3 4 4 4 6 6 8 7 6 5 4 4 8 2 2 0 1	138	28.01	26.72	63.9%
3 7 6 4 9 4 5 9 5 4 5 7 3 3 6 5 6 6 7 6 5 4 2 6 7 2 0 2 0	138	27.46	27.20^†1	64.2%
1 7 7 4 9 4 5 9 5 6 6 7 3 3 6 5 6 5 5 6 4 5 3 7 8 2 0	138	26.81	27.44^†4	65.1%
3 6 6 4 9 4 3 7 6 6 5 7 4 3 6 6 4 4 6 6 6 5 4 6 7 3 0 2 0	138	25.74	26.85	63.9%
3 7 6 4 9 4 4 7 4 6 6 6 4 5 6 6 4 4 5 6 4 3 4 6 8 2 1 2 1	137	28.92	27.27	63.4%
1 7 6 5 5 4 4 9 6 5 5 6 4 4 6 5 6 5 6 6 5 5 3 8 6 2 2 1	137	17.28	28.44^†1	63.7%
Punters 3 7 6 4 9 4 4 8 5 5 5 7 5 2 6 6 4 4 6 7 5 5 3 5 8 2 0 1 0	136	28.86	26.82	63.0%
3 6 6 4 7 4 4 8 5 7 5 8 4 4 6 6 5 4 6 7 4 3 4 5 7 2 0 1 0	135	27.01	27.27	62.5%
3 7 5 4 8 4 4 7 6 6 5 6 4 4 5 5 5 4 6 6 4 4 3 6 8 2 1 2 1	135	24.63	27.83	62.5%
1 5 6 4 9 4 3 8 5 5 6 7 4 3 5 6 6 4 6 6 5 3 4 6 8 2 1 2 1	135	24.46	27.53	62.5%
3 5 6 6 8 4 4 7 4 4 5 7 3 4 5 6 5 4 6 6 6 4 3 6 6 3 1 2 0	133	28.20	26.76	61.6%
3 6 6 4 8 4 4 8 5 5 5 7 4 3 6 6 4 4 6 6 4 3 3 6 8 3 0 2 0	133	27.48	27.05^†2	62.1%