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Tag: The Arc

Footy Forensics: Hawthorn to Western Bulldogs

Posted on June 1, 2017

Don’t miss Part 2 of Matt Cowgill’s amazing graphgasm smorgasbord over at ESPN:

A deep dive into footy data turns up the graph that tells your team’s story so far in 2017. This week, we analyse Hawthorn through to the Western Bulldogs.

Source: Footy Forensics Your AFL club’s key game trend part II

Wins % Range
1
Collingwood 17.7 131%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1
2
Geelong 16.6 132%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2
3
Adelaide 15.4 129%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3–5
4
Brisbane Lions 15.2 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3–4
5
Gold Coast 14.5 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5–6
6
Western Bulldogs 14.0 129%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3–8
7
Hawthorn 13.6 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5–8
8
Fremantle 13.3 108%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
6–9
9
GWS 12.0 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
8–9
10
Carlton 10.8 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
10–11
11
Sydney 10.1 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
10–11
12
St Kilda 9.7 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12–14
13
Port Adelaide 9.7 86%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12–15
14
Essendon 9.7 83%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12–15
15
Melbourne 9.5 91%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12–15
16
North Melbourne 6.4 78%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16–17
17
Richmond 5.4 70%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16–17
18
West Coast 3.5 68%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18

After Round 13, 2025.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
Collingwood 11 2 – 134.0%
+6.7
1
2
Brisbane Lions 9 3 1 112.6%
+5.7
4
3
Adelaide 9 4 – 137.2%
+6.4
3
4
Geelong 9 4 – 126.2%
+7.6
2
5
Gold Coast 8∗ 4 – 123.2%
+6.5
5
6
Hawthorn 8 5 – 111.8%
+5.6
7
7
GWS 7 6 – 107.2%
+5.0
9
8
Fremantle 7∗ 5 – 106.4%
+6.3
8
9
Western Bulldogs 6∗ 6 – 122.1%
+8.0
6
10
Essendon 6∗ 6 – 84.9%
+3.7
14
11
Carlton 5∗ 7 – 103.4%
+5.8
10
12
St Kilda 5∗ 7 – 93.1%
+4.7
12
13
Sydney 5 8 – 90.1%
+5.1
11
14
Melbourne 5 8 – 88.3%
+4.5
15
15
Port Adelaide 5∗ 7 – 81.5%
+4.7
13
16
North Melbourne 3∗ 8 1 79.9%
+2.9
16
17
Richmond 3 10 – 69.4%
+2.4
17
18
West Coast 1 12 – 65.3%
+2.5
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 8 7 7 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 6

85 18.38 27.19 75.2%
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 8 6 6 4 6

84 18.17 26.83 74.3%
Winnable

1 8 6 6 7 7 4 9 7 6 6 6 4 6

83 19.45 26.76 73.5%
Aggregate

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 6 6 6 5 6

83 17.89 26.89 73.5%
AFL Lab

2 8 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 5 5 6

83 17.83 27.33 73.5%
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 7 7 8 5 7 7 6 6 6 4 6

82 19.29 26.81 72.6%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 8 7 8 5 7 6 8 5 6 5 5

82 18.46 27.35 72.6%
s10

2 8 5 7 7 6 5 7 7 6 5 6 5 6

82 18.09 26.79 72.6%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 7 6 7 4 9 7 5 6 5 5 6

82 16.35 28.39 72.6%
Punters

1 8 5 7 7 6 4 7 6 7 6 7 5 6

82 16.18 27.30 72.6%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 6 7 7 5 7 6 6 5 6 5 6

81 20.65 26.49 71.7%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 7 7 6 4 8 7 6 6 6 4 6

81 17.67 26.94 71.7%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 7 5 7 4 7 8 6 5 6 6 6

81 16.43 28.65 71.7%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 6 7 6 4 6 7 7 6 6 5 6

80 19.42 26.51 70.8%
Squiggle

1 7 5 8 7 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6

80 16.38 27.60 70.8%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 7 7 7 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 6

80 14.82 27.04 70.8%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 7 6 8 4 7 8 7 5 5 4 6

79 18.22 27.16 69.9%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 6 7 6 4 7 6 6 6 6 4 6

78 17.19 26.73 69.0%
Stattraction

2 7 4 8 6 6 4 8 7 6 5 5 4 6

78 15.59 27.72 69.0%
footycharts

2 7 3 8 7 6 5 8 6 6 4 6 4 5

77 16.26 27.94 68.1%
ZaphBot

1 8 6 7 7 6 3 7 7 5 5 7 3 5

77 15.16 27.99 68.1%
The Footycast

1 7 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 6 5 6 5 6

77 10.47 29.33 68.1%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 5 6 5 6

75 16.71 27.49 66.4%
Graft

1 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 6 5 5 5 5

74 13.54 28.89 65.5%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 6

73 13.27 28.10 64.6%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 6 7 6 4 8 7 6 4 5 4 4

72 14.27 27.71 63.7%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 6 7 6 6 6 8 5 3 6 4 6

72 8.70 28.97 63.7%
Hyperion

1 7 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 5 3 7 4 4

71 12.40 28.88 62.8%

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