Skip to content
Squiggle
@squiggle.au @SquiggleAFL Discord

Tag: Matter of Stats

Close Games: Do Successful Teams Win Them?

Posted on July 11, 2017July 11, 2017

Matter of Stats performs a typically surgical dissection of the idea that good teams win close games. (Spoiler alert: They don’t.)

Successful teams don’t so much tend to win the close ones, but instead tend to win the ones that aren’t close.

Source: UPDATE: Close Games in VFL/AFL History: Do Successful Teams Win Them? — Matter of Stats

Wins % Range
1
Adelaide 17.8 141%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1
2
Geelong 16.9 143%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2
3
Brisbane Lions 16.0 114%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3
4
Collingwood 15.6 123%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
4–5
5
Gold Coast 17.2 126%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5–10
6
GWS 15.7 116%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
4–7
7
Hawthorn 15.4 121%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5–8
8
Western Bulldogs 14.8 140%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
6–9
9
Fremantle 15.2 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
8–9
10
Sydney 11.7 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
9–10
11
St Kilda 9.3 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
11–12
12
Carlton 8.7 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
11–12
13
Port Adelaide 8.4 79%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
13
14
Melbourne 7.4 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
14
15
Essendon 7.2 70%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15–18
16
North Melbourne 5.6 75%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15–16
17
Richmond 5.1 66%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16–17
18
West Coast 1.3 61%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17–18

After Round 23, 2025.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
Adelaide 17 5 – 141.0%
+0.8
1
2
Geelong 16 6 – 140.7%
+0.9
2
3
Brisbane Lions 15 6 1 114.3%
+0.5
3
4
Collingwood 15 7 – 123.1%
+0.6
4
5
Hawthorn 15 7 – 122.7%
+0.4
7
6
GWS 15 7 – 115.5%
+0.7
6
7
Fremantle 15 7 – 108.6%
+0.2
9
8
Western Bulldogs 14 8 – 140.3%
+0.8
8
9
Gold Coast 14∗ 7 – 121.2%
+3.2
5
10
Sydney 11 11 – 93.3%
+0.7
10
11
St Kilda 9 13 – 88.5%
+0.3
11
12
Carlton 8 14 – 94.7%
+0.7
12
13
Port Adelaide 8 14 – 79.0%
+0.4
13
14
Melbourne 7 15 – 93.4%
+0.4
14
15
Essendon 6∗ 15 – 72.3%
+1.2
15
16
North Melbourne 5 16 1 75.7%
+0.1
16
17
Richmond 5 17 – 66.1%
+0.1
17
18
West Coast 1 21 – 61.0%
+0.3
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 8 7 7 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 6 9 6 5 7 8 7 7

150 47.58 26.14 76.1%
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 7 7 8 5 7 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 7 9 5 7 7 8 8 8

150 45.10 25.97 76.1%
Punters

1 8 5 7 7 6 4 7 6 7 6 7 5 6 6 4 7 9 5 6 7 8 7 7

148 48.91 26.01 75.1%
Aggregate

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 3 7 9 5 6 7 8 7 7

148 45.57 26.13 75.1%
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 8 6 6 4 6 4 4 6 9 6 6 7 8 7 7

148 45.34 25.90 75.1%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 8 7 8 5 7 6 8 5 6 5 5 6 4 7 9 5 6 7 8 8 6

148 43.49 26.96 75.1%
Winnable

1 8 6 6 7 7 4 9 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 6 9 5 6 7 8 7 7

147 46.14 26.18 74.6%
s10

2 8 5 7 7 6 5 7 7 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 9 5 6 7 8 7 7

147 45.23 26.04 74.6%
AFL Lab

2 8 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 5 5 6 6 4 7 8 6 6 7 8 6 6

147 39.32 26.77 74.6%
ZaphBot

1 8 6 7 7 6 3 7 7 5 5 7 3 5 6 5 6 9 6 6 7 8 8 7

145 44.42 26.52 73.6%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 7 6 7 4 9 7 5 6 5 5 6 5 4 6 8 5 5 7 8 7 7

144 48.05 27.36 73.1%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 7 5 7 4 7 8 6 5 6 6 6 6 4 7 9 3 5 7 8 7 7

144 46.10 27.32 73.1%
Squiggle

1 7 5 8 7 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 4 4 7 9 6 5 7 8 6 8

144 42.41 26.66 73.1%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 6 7 7 5 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 6 9 4 5 7 8 7 7

143 48.62 26.00 72.6%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 7 7 6 4 8 7 6 6 6 4 6 4 3 6 9 5 6 7 8 7 7

143 45.36 26.26 72.6%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 6 7 6 4 7 6 6 6 6 4 6 4 5 6 9 6 5 7 8 7 7

142 50.23 25.66 72.1%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 6 7 6 4 6 7 7 6 6 5 6 4 4 6 9 5 5 7 8 7 7

142 48.47 25.75 72.1%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 8 4 7 8 8 8 8

142 47.10 26.43 72.1%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 7 7 7 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 4 3 7 9 4 6 7 8 7 7

142 42.87 26.71 72.1%
The Footycast

1 7 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 9 4 6 8 8 7 7

142 34.09 27.91 72.1%
Stattraction

2 7 4 8 6 6 4 8 7 6 5 5 4 6 6 4 6 9 4 5 6 8 7 8

141 43.08 26.91 71.6%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 7 6 8 4 7 8 7 5 5 4 6 5 3 6 9 3 6 7 8 7 7

140 41.95 27.10 71.1%
Graft

1 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 7 9 5 6 7 8 8 7

140 39.17 27.53 71.1%
footycharts

2 7 3 8 7 6 5 8 6 6 4 6 4 5 5 3 6 8 6 6 6 8 7 7

139 39.26 27.73 70.6%
Hyperion

1 7 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 5 3 7 4 4 6 4 6 8 6 8 8 7 8 7

139 38.58 27.94 70.6%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 6 7 6 6 6 8 5 3 6 4 6 6 4 6 9 4 7 8 8 7 7

138 23.63 29.38 70.1%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 6 7 6 4 8 7 6 4 5 4 4 5 4 7 9 5 7 7 8 7 6

137 39.86 27.23 69.5%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 6 4 3 6 9 3 5 8 8 8 6

133 38.86 28.26 67.5%

AFL Ladder Predictor

Squiggle AFL Ladder Predictor

Live Squiggle

Twitter

Tweets by SquiggleAFL

Friends of Squiggle

  • Live Ladders
  • Matter of Stats
  • HPN
  • FMI
  • Wheelo Ratings
  • AFLalytics
  • AFL Lab
  • PlusSixOne
  • Graft
  • Massey Ratings
  • ZaphBot
  • Glicko Ratings
  • Cheap Stats
  • Figuring Footy
  • The Footycast
  • AFL Scorigami
  • Data by Josh
  • Elo Predicts!
  • Stattraction
  • The Wooden Finger
  • Drop Kick Data
  • Hyperion
  • footycharts
  • Winnable
  • What Snoo Thinks
  • Informed Stats
  • The Flag
  • The Arc
  • Figuring Footy
  • BigFooty

About Squiggle

Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

SQUIGGLE API

Need free data? Try the Squiggle API.