More Models

Exciting times with two new models added to the Squiggle dials:

Ranking Software, also known as AFL Live Ladder , also known as Darren O’Shaughnessy, one of the absolute doyens of AFL analytics
Stattraction, also known as statisticc from Reddit’s r/afl

And that’s not all! Two more big ones coming next week.

LEADERBOARD 2019

After 3 games of Round 5, 2019.

	Tips	Bits	MAE	Correct
5 4 7 5 2	23	0.61	25.72	59.0%
5 4 6 6 2	23	-3.35	33.31	59.0%
5 3 6 5 2	21	-3.03	31.64	53.8%
5 4 5 4 2	20	-0.40	31.71	51.3%
4 3 6 6 1	20	-1.20	29.69	51.3%
3 4 6 5 2	20	-2.17	30.62	51.3%
4 4 5 5 2	20	-3.99	30.93	51.3%
Punters 3 4 6 5 2	20	-4.56	32.29	51.3%
4 5 6 4 1	20	-6.33	32.64	51.3%
3 3 5 6 2	19	-2.42	32.82	48.7%
4 3 5 5 2	19	-2.48	34.74	48.7%
3 3 5 6 2	19	-5.20	33.31	48.7%
3 2 6 6 2	19	-5.48	33.59	48.7%
4 3 5 4 2	18	-1.56	29.67	46.2%
Aggregate 3 3 6 4 2	18	-2.35	31.16	46.2%
3 3 4 4 2	16	-6.30	36.94	41.0%
1 6 5 0 1	13	-7.04	30.95	33.3%

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

Drawn games are counted as correct tips.