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More Models

Posted on April 13, 2018April 13, 2018 by Max Barry

Exciting times with two new models added to the Squiggle dials:

  • Ranking Software, also known as AFL Live Ladder , also known as Darren O’Shaughnessy, one of the absolute doyens of AFL analytics
  • Stattraction, also known as statisticc from Reddit’s r/afl

And that’s not all! Two more big ones coming next week.

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Wins % Range
1
 Collingwood 16.6 132%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Brisbane Lions 15.3 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–3
3
 Gold Coast 14.8 121%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–6
4
 Geelong 14.6 124%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–5
5
 Hawthorn 14.7 117%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–7
6
 Western Bulldogs 14.3 126%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–8
7
 Adelaide 14.2 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–7
8
 GWS 13.0 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–8
9
 Carlton 11.5 108%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–10
10
 Sydney 11.5 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–10
11
 Fremantle 10.9 97%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
12
 St Kilda 10.7 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–14
13
 Essendon 10.8 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–13
14
 Port Adelaide 10.2 91%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
15
 Melbourne 8.1 82%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 Richmond 6.5 67%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
17
 North Melbourne 6.0 79%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
18
 West Coast 3.5 66%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 2 games of Round 10, 2025.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Brisbane Lions 7∗ 1 1 112.9%
+7.8
2
2
 Gold Coast 7∗ 2 – 132.0%
+7.8
3
3
 Collingwood 7∗ 2 – 131.0%
+9.6
1
4
 Hawthorn 7 3 – 123.8%
+7.7
5
5
 Adelaide 6∗ 3 – 128.8%
+8.2
7
6
 Western Bulldogs 5∗ 4 – 122.0%
+9.3
6
7
 Geelong 5∗ 4 – 114.4%
+9.6
4
8
 GWS 5∗ 4 – 113.4%
+8.0
8
9
 Essendon 5∗ 3 – 90.8%
+5.8
13
10
 Carlton 4 6 – 106.9%
+7.5
9
11
 Sydney 4 6 – 98.7%
+7.5
10
12
 Fremantle 4∗ 5 – 95.7%
+6.9
11
13
 St Kilda 4∗ 5 – 93.3%
+6.7
12
14
 Port Adelaide 4∗ 5 – 88.6%
+6.2
14
15
 Melbourne 3∗ 6 – 79.4%
+5.1
15
16
 Richmond 3∗ 6 – 66.8%
+3.5
16
17
 North Melbourne 1∗ 7 1 78.2%
+4.5
17
18
 West Coast –∗ 9 – 61.0%
+3.5
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
AFL Lab

2 8 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 2

64 16.15 26.23 78.0%
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 8 2

64 15.94 25.24 78.0%
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 8 7 7 5 9 6 6 2

64 15.68 25.91 78.0%
Winnable

1 8 6 6 7 7 4 9 7 6 2

63 16.42 25.47 76.8%
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 7 7 8 5 7 7 6 2

62 16.08 25.84 75.6%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 7 6 7 4 9 7 5 2

62 15.63 27.13 75.6%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 8 7 8 5 7 6 8 1

62 15.44 26.43 75.6%
Aggregate

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 6 2

62 14.81 26.01 75.6%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 7 6 8 4 7 8 7 2

61 15.57 26.33 74.4%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 7 7 6 4 8 7 6 2

61 15.27 25.55 74.4%
s10

2 8 5 7 7 6 5 7 7 6 1

61 14.60 26.12 74.4%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 6 7 7 5 7 6 6 1

60 16.82 25.37 73.2%
Punters

1 8 5 7 7 6 4 7 6 7 2

60 13.15 26.40 73.2%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 7 7 7 5 6 6 6 2

60 10.62 26.01 73.2%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 6 7 6 4 6 7 7 2

59 16.30 25.29 72.0%
footycharts

2 7 3 8 7 6 5 8 6 6 1

59 14.18 26.78 72.0%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 7 5 7 4 7 8 6 1

59 13.26 28.10 72.0%
Stattraction

2 7 4 8 6 6 4 8 7 6 1

59 12.52 27.20 72.0%
Squiggle

1 7 5 8 7 5 6 6 6 6 2

59 11.88 27.02 72.0%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 6 7 6 4 7 6 6 2

58 16.25 25.13 70.7%
ZaphBot

1 8 6 7 7 6 3 7 7 5 1

58 12.49 27.40 70.7%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 6 7 6 4 8 7 6 1

56 11.65 27.66 68.3%
The Footycast

1 7 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 6 1

56 7.04 29.30 68.3%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 2

55 13.22 27.30 67.1%
Graft

1 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 6 1

55 10.78 27.85 67.1%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 1

54 11.56 27.45 65.9%
Hyperion

1 7 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 5 1

54 11.45 28.13 65.9%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 6 7 6 6 6 8 5 1

54 6.65 28.90 65.9%

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