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More Models

Posted on April 13, 2018April 13, 2018 by Max Barry

Exciting times with two new models added to the Squiggle dials:

  • Ranking Software, also known as AFL Live Ladder , also known as Darren O’Shaughnessy, one of the absolute doyens of AFL analytics
  • Stattraction, also known as statisticc from Reddit’s r/afl

And that’s not all! Two more big ones coming next week.

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Wins % Range
1
 Western Bulldogs 16.0 126%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
2
 Hawthorn 15.6 125%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–3
3
 Sydney 15.1 134%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–3
4
 Fremantle 14.4 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–5
5
 Brisbane Lions 14.3 122%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–6
6
 Geelong 13.8 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–7
7
 Gold Coast 13.7 117%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–7
8
 Adelaide 12.0 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
9
 Melbourne 12.2 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
10
 Collingwood 11.5 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
11
 GWS 10.7 97%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
12
 St Kilda 10.3 97%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–13
13
 North Melbourne 10.2 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–14
14
 Port Adelaide 9.6 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
15
 Carlton 8.2 84%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–16
16
 West Coast 7.9 73%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–16
17
 Essendon 6.0 73%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
18
 Richmond 5.5 68%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 1 game of Round 5, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Western Bulldogs 4∗ – – 140.4%
+12.0
1
2
 Sydney 3∗ 1 – 182.9%
+12.1
3
3
 Gold Coast 3∗ 1 – 152.6%
+10.7
7
4
 Fremantle 3∗ 1 – 133.4%
+11.4
4
5
 North Melbourne 3∗ 1 – 115.3%
+7.2
13
6
 Hawthorn 3∗ 1 – 114.0%
+12.6
2
7
 Melbourne 3∗ 1 – 102.0%
+9.2
9
8
 Port Adelaide 2∗ 2 – 117.6%
+7.6
14
9
 Brisbane Lions 2∗ 2 – 110.6%
+12.3
5
10
 Adelaide 2 3 – 106.4%
+10.0
8
11
 Collingwood 2∗ 2 – 93.1%
+9.5
10
12
 Geelong 2∗ 2 – 89.7%
+11.8
6
13
 West Coast 2∗ 2 – 64.9%
+5.9
16
14
 St Kilda 1∗ 3 – 86.0%
+9.3
12
15
 GWS 1∗ 3 – 76.9%
+9.7
11
16
 Carlton 1 4 – 76.6%
+7.2
15
17
 Essendon –∗ 4 – 62.7%
+6.0
17
18
 Richmond –∗ 4 – 56.1%
+5.5
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 1

29 9.4564 9.46 23.6784 23.68 78.3784 78.4%
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 1

28 9.1818 9.18 25.7738 25.77 75.6757 75.7%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 1

28 5.2605 5.26 25.6714 25.67 75.6757 75.7%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 1

27 9.7243 9.72 25.3435 25.34 72.9730 73.0%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 1

27 8.6247 8.62 25.2419 25.24 72.9730 73.0%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 1

27 8.5256 8.53 25.3030 25.30 72.9730 73.0%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 1

27 7.7020 7.70 26.0984 26.10 72.9730 73.0%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 1

27 7.5830 7.58 25.7373 25.74 72.9730 73.0%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 1

27 7.4019 7.40 25.4976 25.50 72.9730 73.0%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 1

27 7.3856 7.39 25.4054 25.41 72.9730 73.0%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 1

26 8.9449 8.94 25.0727 25.07 70.2703 70.3%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 1

26 8.6148 8.61 25.6911 25.69 70.2703 70.3%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 1

26 7.6338 7.63 25.1924 25.19 70.2703 70.3%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 1

26 7.1477 7.15 26.8378 26.84 70.2703 70.3%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 1

26 6.7594 6.76 26.6762 26.68 70.2703 70.3%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 1

26 5.6486 5.65 26.1892 26.19 70.2703 70.3%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 1

25 8.8615 8.86 25.5843 25.58 67.5676 67.6%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 1

25 8.2094 8.21 25.6000 25.60 67.5676 67.6%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 1

25 6.3879 6.39 27.4865 27.49 67.5676 67.6%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 1

25 6.3148 6.31 26.9730 26.97 67.5676 67.6%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 1

25 3.5229 3.52 28.6757 28.68 67.5676 67.6%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 1

24 7.2628 7.26 26.7297 26.73 64.8649 64.9%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 1

24 6.9942 6.99 25.5176 25.52 64.8649 64.9%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 1

24 6.9618 6.96 25.7870 25.79 64.8649 64.9%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 1

24 5.7237 5.72 26.9757 26.98 64.8649 64.9%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 1

24 4.3013 4.30 27.4649 27.46 64.8649 64.9%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 1

23 7.4826 7.48 25.7568 25.76 62.1622 62.2%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 1

23 7.4555 7.46 26.3451 26.35 62.1622 62.2%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 1

22 4.4341 4.43 27.8378 27.84 59.4595 59.5%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5

17 0.6310 0.63 27.4286 27.43 †9 60.7143 60.7%
Massey Ratings

2 4

6 1.1606 1.16 35.5833 35.58 †25 50.0000 50.0%

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Friends of Squiggle

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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