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More Models

Posted on April 13, 2018April 13, 2018 by Max Barry

Exciting times with two new models added to the Squiggle dials:

  • Ranking Software, also known as AFL Live Ladder , also known as Darren O’Shaughnessy, one of the absolute doyens of AFL analytics
  • Stattraction, also known as statisticc from Reddit’s r/afl

And that’s not all! Two more big ones coming next week.

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Wins % Range
1
 Adelaide 17.0 146%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
2
 Collingwood 17.2 130%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–3
3
 Geelong 16.3 139%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–3
4
 Brisbane Lions 15.7 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–5
5
 Gold Coast 15.7 123%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–5
6
 Fremantle 15.1 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–8
7
 Hawthorn 14.8 115%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–9
8
 GWS 14.9 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–9
9
 Western Bulldogs 14.3 139%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–9
10
 Sydney 11.1 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
11
 Carlton 9.0 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
12
 Port Adelaide 9.2 82%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
13
 St Kilda 8.3 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
14
 Melbourne 7.9 91%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
15
 Essendon 7.2 71%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 Richmond 6.0 69%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
17
 North Melbourne 5.7 73%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
18
 West Coast 1.6 62%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 1 game of Round 21, 2025.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Collingwood 15∗ 4 – 135.0%
+2.2
2
2
 Adelaide 14∗ 5 – 146.0%
+3.0
1
3
 Brisbane Lions 13∗ 5 1 110.8%
+2.2
4
4
 Geelong 13∗ 6 – 134.2%
+3.3
3
5
 Hawthorn 13∗ 6 – 119.9%
+1.8
7
6
 Fremantle 13∗ 6 – 111.7%
+2.1
6
7
 GWS 13 7 – 111.3%
+1.9
8
8
 Western Bulldogs 12 8 – 137.3%
+2.3
9
9
 Gold Coast 12∗ 6 – 119.5%
+3.7
5
10
 Sydney 9∗ 10 – 93.9%
+2.1
10
11
 Port Adelaide 8∗ 11 – 83.2%
+1.2
12
12
 Carlton 7∗ 12 – 93.3%
+2.0
11
13
 Melbourne 6∗ 13 – 90.0%
+1.9
14
14
 St Kilda 6∗ 13 – 86.4%
+2.3
13
15
 Essendon 6∗ 12 – 71.7%
+1.2
15
16
 Richmond 5∗ 14 – 68.1%
+1.0
16
17
 North Melbourne 4∗ 14 1 72.8%
+1.2
17
18
 West Coast 1∗ 18 – 63.5%
+0.6
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 8 7 7 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 6 9 6 5 7 1

129 37.38 25.98 75.4%
AFL Lab

2 8 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 5 5 6 6 4 7 8 6 6 7 1

128 31.78 27.00 74.9%
Punters

1 8 5 7 7 6 4 7 6 7 6 7 5 6 6 4 7 9 5 6 7 1

127 37.43 25.87 74.3%
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 8 6 6 4 6 4 4 6 9 6 6 7 1

127 36.15 25.93 74.3%
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 7 7 8 5 7 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 7 9 5 7 7 1

127 36.13 26.02 74.3%
Aggregate

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 3 7 9 5 6 7 1

127 35.60 26.08 74.3%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 8 7 8 5 7 6 8 5 6 5 5 6 4 7 9 5 6 7 1

127 34.79 27.05 74.3%
Winnable

1 8 6 6 7 7 4 9 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 6 9 5 6 7 1

126 36.98 26.20 73.7%
s10

2 8 5 7 7 6 5 7 7 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 9 5 6 7 1

126 35.35 26.05 73.7%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 7 6 7 4 9 7 5 6 5 5 6 5 4 6 8 5 5 7 1

123 37.31 26.59 71.9%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 7 5 7 4 7 8 6 5 6 6 6 6 4 7 9 3 5 7 1

123 35.16 27.23 71.9%
ZaphBot

1 8 6 7 7 6 3 7 7 5 5 7 3 5 6 5 6 9 6 6 7 1

123 33.28 26.67 71.9%
Squiggle

1 7 5 8 7 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 4 4 7 9 6 5 7 1

123 32.39 26.83 71.9%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 6 7 7 5 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 6 9 4 5 7 1

122 37.80 25.72 71.3%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 7 7 6 4 8 7 6 6 6 4 6 4 3 6 9 5 6 7 1

122 35.76 26.28 71.3%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 6 7 6 4 7 6 6 6 6 4 6 4 5 6 9 6 5 7 1

121 38.24 25.38 70.8%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 6 7 6 4 6 7 7 6 6 5 6 4 4 6 9 5 5 7 1

121 37.13 25.56 70.8%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 7 7 7 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 4 3 7 9 4 6 7 1

121 31.60 26.47 70.8%
The Footycast

1 7 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 9 4 6 8 1

121 26.11 28.17 70.8%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 8 4 7 8 1

119 36.04 26.40 69.6%
Stattraction

2 7 4 8 6 6 4 8 7 6 5 5 4 6 6 4 6 9 4 5 6 1

119 32.89 26.79 69.6%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 7 6 8 4 7 8 7 5 5 4 6 5 3 6 9 3 6 7 1

119 32.76 27.01 69.6%
footycharts

2 7 3 8 7 6 5 8 6 6 4 6 4 5 5 3 6 8 6 6 6 1

118 30.36 27.67 69.0%
Graft

1 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 7 9 5 6 7 1

118 29.86 27.51 69.0%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 6 7 6 4 8 7 6 4 5 4 4 5 4 7 9 5 7 7 1

117 31.44 27.05 68.4%
Hyperion

1 7 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 5 3 7 4 4 6 4 6 8 6 8 8 0

117 29.97 28.09 68.4%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 6 7 6 6 6 8 5 3 6 4 6 6 4 6 9 4 7 8 1

117 18.32 29.47 68.4%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 6 4 3 6 9 3 5 8 1

112 28.67 28.15 65.5%

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Friends of Squiggle

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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