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More Models

Posted on April 13, 2018April 13, 2018 by Max Barry

Exciting times with two new models added to the Squiggle dials:

  • Ranking Software, also known as AFL Live Ladder , also known as Darren O’Shaughnessy, one of the absolute doyens of AFL analytics
  • Stattraction, also known as statisticc from Reddit’s r/afl

And that’s not all! Two more big ones coming next week.

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Wins % Range
1
 Collingwood 17.7 137%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Geelong 16.5 134%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Adelaide 15.3 130%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–5
4
 Brisbane Lions 15.0 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4
5
 Western Bulldogs 14.1 133%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–8
6
 Gold Coast 14.4 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–6
7
 Hawthorn 13.4 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–8
8
 Fremantle 13.3 108%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–8
9
 GWS 12.1 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9
10
 Carlton 10.5 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
11
 Sydney 10.0 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
12
 Essendon 10.2 82%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–14
13
 St Kilda 9.7 91%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–15
14
 Melbourne 9.7 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–15
15
 Port Adelaide 9.6 85%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–15
16
 North Melbourne 5.9 76%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
17
 Richmond 5.6 70%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
18
 West Coast 3.9 67%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After 5 games of Round 13, 2025.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Collingwood 10∗ 2 – 136.9%
+7.7
1
2
 Brisbane Lions 9 3 1 112.6%
+5.5
4
3
 Adelaide 9 4 – 137.2%
+6.3
3
4
 Geelong 9 4 – 126.2%
+7.5
2
5
 Gold Coast 8∗ 4 – 123.2%
+6.4
6
6
 Hawthorn 8 5 – 111.8%
+5.4
7
7
 GWS 7 6 – 107.2%
+5.1
9
8
 Fremantle 7∗ 5 – 106.4%
+6.3
8
9
 Western Bulldogs 6∗ 6 – 122.1%
+8.1
5
10
 Essendon 6∗ 5 – 84.6%
+4.2
12
11
 St Kilda 5∗ 7 – 93.1%
+4.7
13
12
 Sydney 5 8 – 90.1%
+5.0
11
13
 Melbourne 5∗ 7 – 87.6%
+4.7
14
14
 Port Adelaide 5∗ 7 – 81.5%
+4.6
15
15
 Carlton 4∗ 7 – 102.8%
+6.5
10
16
 Richmond 3 10 – 69.4%
+2.6
17
17
 North Melbourne 2∗ 8 1 78.1%
+3.4
16
18
 West Coast 1∗ 11 – 64.5%
+2.9
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Matter of Stats

2 8 4 8 7 7 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 3

82 16.89 27.56 74.5%
Glicko Ratings

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 8 6 6 4 3

81 16.82 27.29 73.6%
Winnable

1 8 6 6 7 7 4 9 7 6 6 6 4 3

80 18.04 27.20 72.7%
Live Ladders

2 7 3 8 7 8 5 7 6 8 5 6 5 3

80 17.65 27.80 72.7%
AFL Lab

2 8 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 5 5 3

80 17.00 27.87 72.7%
Aggregate

2 8 5 7 7 7 5 7 6 6 6 6 5 3

80 16.74 27.36 72.7%
Don't Blame the Data

2 8 3 7 7 8 5 7 7 6 6 6 4 3

79 18.05 27.25 71.8%
s10

2 8 5 7 7 6 5 7 7 6 5 6 5 3

79 17.01 27.26 71.8%
Informed Stats

1 8 6 7 6 7 4 9 7 5 6 5 5 3

79 15.10 28.89 71.8%
Punters

1 8 5 7 7 6 4 7 6 7 6 7 5 3

79 14.86 27.76 71.8%
Drop Kick Data

2 8 5 6 7 7 5 7 6 6 5 6 5 3

78 19.20 26.88 70.9%
AFLalytics

2 7 5 7 7 6 4 8 7 6 6 6 4 3

78 16.36 27.42 70.9%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 4 7 5 7 4 7 8 6 5 6 6 3

78 15.08 28.99 70.9%
Wheelo Ratings

1 8 5 6 7 6 4 6 7 7 6 6 5 3

77 18.03 26.92 70.0%
Squiggle

1 7 5 8 7 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 3

77 15.41 28.07 70.0%
Cheap Stats

1 8 5 7 7 7 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 3

77 13.70 27.45 70.0%
What Snoo Thinks

1 8 3 7 6 8 4 7 8 7 5 5 4 3

76 16.79 27.57 69.1%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 6 7 6 4 7 6 6 6 6 4 3

75 15.72 27.19 68.2%
footycharts

2 7 3 8 7 6 5 8 6 6 4 6 4 3

75 15.63 28.24 68.2%
Stattraction

2 7 4 8 6 6 4 8 7 6 5 5 4 3

75 14.50 28.14 68.2%
ZaphBot

1 8 6 7 7 6 3 7 7 5 5 7 3 2

74 14.29 28.45 67.3%
The Footycast

1 7 5 6 6 6 4 6 8 6 5 6 5 3

74 9.36 29.85 67.3%
Massey Ratings

1 8 5 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 5 6 5 3

72 15.31 27.98 65.5%
Graft

1 5 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 6 5 5 5 3

72 12.71 29.24 65.5%
Elo Predicts!

1 7 3 6 7 6 4 8 7 6 4 5 4 2

70 13.54 28.12 63.6%
AFL Scorigami

2 8 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 3

70 12.26 28.73 63.6%
Hyperion

1 7 5 6 6 7 3 6 7 5 3 7 4 2

69 11.57 29.39 62.7%
PlusSixOne

1 6 2 6 7 6 6 6 8 5 3 6 4 3

69 8.14 29.67 62.7%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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