Introducing s10 - Squiggle

There’s a new entry on tip pages named s10. This isn’t a model; instead, it’s the average of tips by the 10 top-performing models of the previous year, as measured by MAE.

The idea here is that in the future, we can allow more models to join the Squiggle platform without worrying so much about whether they’ll turn out to be any good. Because although they might affect the performance of Aggregate, they can’t throw out s10.

Aggregate is the average of all models, including Punters.

s10 is the average of the top 10 models by MAE from the year before. For example, s10 in 2020 was the average tip of 2019’s best-performing models.

* If a model qualifies for s10 but does not participate, it is omitted and not replaced.

Year	Previous Year’s Top 10 Models by MAE
2017	–
2018	2017: 1. Matter of Stats 2. The Arc 3. GRAFT Ratings 4. plusSixOne 5. FMI 6. Squiggle 7. Figuring Footy*
2019	2018: 1. Live Ladders 2. Matter of Stats (2 consecutive years) 3. Squiggle (2) 4. GRAFT Ratings (2) 5. Massey Ratings 6. plusSixOne (2) 7. The Arc 8. Swinburne 9. FMI (2) 10. Stattraction Out: Figuring Footy
2020	2019: 1. Live Ladders (2) 2. plusSixOne (3) 3. AFLalytics 4. The Arc (2) 5. AFL Lab 6. GRAFT Ratings (3) 7. Matter of Stats (3) 8. Squiggle (3) 9. Swinburne (2) 10. AFL Gains* Out: Massey Ratings, Stattraction, FMI
2021	2020: 1. AFLalytics (2) 2. Squiggle (4) 3. Live Ladders (3) 4. Matter of Stats (4) 5. AFL_GO* 6. plusSixOne (4) 7. Massey Ratings 8. GRAFT Ratings (4) 9. AFL Lab 10. Stattraction Out: The Arc, Swinburne, AFL Gains
2022	2021: 1. GRAFT Ratings (5) 2. Cheap Stats 3. AFLalytics (3) 4. AFL Lab (2) 5. Matter of Stats (5) 6. Live Ladders (4) 7. Glicko Ratings 8. ZaphBot 9. Squiggle (5) 10. The Cruncher Out: AFL_GO, plusSixOne, Massey Ratings, Stattraction
2023	2022: 1. Wheelo Ratings 2. Data by Josh 3. Matter of Stats (6) 4. AFLalytics (4) 5. The Footycast 6. Live Ladders (5) 7. Squiggle (6) 8. AFL Lab (3) 9. Cheap Stats (2) 10. Massey Ratings Out: GRAFT Ratings, Glicko Ratings, ZaphBot, The Cruncher
2024	2023: 1. Glicko Ratings 2. Matter of Stats (7) 3. Wheelo Ratings (2) 4. AFLalytics (5) 5. Squiggle (7) 6. Data by Josh (2) 7. AFL Lab (4) 8. GRAFT Ratings 9. The Footycast (2) 10. Cheap Stats (3) Out: Live Ladders, Massey Ratings

* Model qualified for year but did not participate.

Wins

Range

Sydney

16.8

127%

Port Adelaide

15.6

114%

Geelong

14.9

112%

3–4

GWS

14.9

109%

3–4

Brisbane Lions

14.3

122%

Western Bulldogs

13.8

125%

6–7

Hawthorn

13.9

118%

6–7

Carlton

13.1

111%

8–9

Fremantle

12.8

113%

8–10

Collingwood

12.7

102%

9–10

Essendon

11.4

93%

St Kilda

10.7

99%

12–14

Gold Coast

10.9

99%

12–14

Melbourne

11.0

99%

12–14

Adelaide

8.4

99%

West Coast

5.0

68%

North Melbourne

3.0

63%

Richmond

2.0

63%

PROJECTIONS

History

Wins

Finish

Sydney

–

126.7%

+-0.2

Port Adelaide

–

114.8%

+-0.4

Geelong

–

112.2%

+-0.1

GWS

–

109.1%

+-0.1

Brisbane Lions

121.9%

+-0.2

Western Bulldogs

–

125.1%

+-0.2

Hawthorn

–

118.5%

+-0.1

Carlton

–

110.2%

+0.1

Collingwood

102.5%

+-0.3

Fremantle

111.9%

+0.3

Essendon

93.5%

+-0.1

St Kilda

–

99.4%

+-0.3

Gold Coast

–

99.1%

+-0.1

Melbourne

–

98.5%

+0.0

Adelaide

99.1%

+-0.1

West Coast

–

68.1%

+-0.0

North Melbourne

–

63.5%

+-0.0

Richmond

–

63.7%

+0.0

Models Leaderboard

	Tips	Bits	MAE	Correct
3 8 7 4 8 4 3 9 6 6 5 6 4 5 6 6 7 6 9 7 5 6 5 6 9 2 1 2 1	156	33.35	26.36	72.2%
3 7 6 4 9 4 5 7 6 5 5 6 5 5 6 5 5 4 6 7 6 4 3 6 9 2 1 1 1	143	33.50	26.52	66.2%
2 7 6 4 8 4 4 7 7 5 6 6 4 6 5 6 5 4 6 6 7 5 4 6 8 2 1 1 1	143	26.77	27.31	66.2%
3 5 6 5 9 4 3 8 6 5 5 8 4 3 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 4 6 7 3 1 1 1	143	24.32	27.08	66.2%
2 7 6 4 9 4 5 8 5 6 5 7 4 5 5 5 6 5 7 6 4 5 4 5 7 2 2 1 1	142	26.14	27.23	65.7%
3 7 6 4 8 4 5 9 6 5 5 6 5 5 6 5 7 5 7 6 4 4 3 6 7 2 0 1 0	141	29.77	27.17	65.3%
2 6 6 4 9 4 4 8 5 6 5 7 3 5 6 6 7 4 7 6 5 5 4 6 6 3 0 1 1	141	27.38	27.27	65.3%
s10 3 6 6 4 8 4 5 9 6 5 5 7 5 5 6 6 4 4 7 7 5 3 3 6 7 2 0 1 1	140	30.91	26.70	64.8%
2 6 6 4 7 4 4 9 5 4 6 6 4 4 6 6 4 5 8 8 5 3 5 6 7 2 1 2 1	140	29.73	26.76	64.8%
3 6 6 3 8 4 4 8 5 5 6 7 3 5 6 6 4 4 5 7 6 5 4 6 9 2 1 1 1	140	29.21	26.92	64.8%
2 7 8 4 7 4 3 8 6 6 5 7 3 4 6 6 6 4 7 7 5 5 3 6 6 2 1 1 1	140	27.51	26.79	64.8%
Aggregate 3 6 6 4 9 4 5 8 6 5 5 7 4 4 6 6 4 4 7 6 4 4 3 6 7 2 1 2 1	139	30.19	26.64	64.4%
3 6 6 5 8 4 4 8 7 6 6 7 3 4 6 6 5 4 6 6 4 3 4 6 7 2 2 1	139	28.36	27.23^†2	65.0%
3 7 7 5 9 4 5 8 5 5 5 7 3 4 6 6 5 4 6 5 4 4 3 6 7 2 1 2 1	139	27.41	26.80	64.4%
3 6 6 4 8 4 5 8 6 5 5 6 4 4 6 6 5 4 8 6 4 5 4 5 8 2 0 1 1	139	27.00	27.34	64.4%
1 7 6 4 9 4 5 8 5 5 6 7 4 3 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 3 5 6 9 2 1 2	139	26.60	27.27^†1	64.7%
3 7 5 4 8 4 5 9 5 5 5 7 3 4 6 6 6 3 5 7 7 4 4 6 7 2 0 1 1	139	21.53	28.11	64.4%
3 7 6 4 6 4 4 9 5 6 4 8 6 5 6 6 6 4 5 7 6 2 4 6 9	138	32.10	26.50^†13	68.0%
3 7 6 4 9 3 4 8 5 4 5 6 3 4 4 4 6 6 8 7 6 5 4 4 8 2 2 0 1	138	28.01	26.72	63.9%
3 7 6 4 9 4 5 9 5 4 5 7 3 3 6 5 6 6 7 6 5 4 2 6 7 2 0 2 0	138	27.46	27.20^†1	64.2%
1 7 7 4 9 4 5 9 5 6 6 7 3 3 6 5 6 5 5 6 4 5 3 7 8 2 0	138	26.81	27.44^†4	65.1%
3 6 6 4 9 4 3 7 6 6 5 7 4 3 6 6 4 4 6 6 6 5 4 6 7 3 0 2 0	138	25.74	26.85	63.9%
3 7 6 4 9 4 4 7 4 6 6 6 4 5 6 6 4 4 5 6 4 3 4 6 8 2 1 2 1	137	28.92	27.27	63.4%
1 7 6 5 5 4 4 9 6 5 5 6 4 4 6 5 6 5 6 6 5 5 3 8 6 2 2 1	137	17.28	28.44^†1	63.7%
Punters 3 7 6 4 9 4 4 8 5 5 5 7 5 2 6 6 4 4 6 7 5 5 3 5 8 2 0 1 0	136	28.86	26.82	63.0%
3 6 6 4 7 4 4 8 5 7 5 8 4 4 6 6 5 4 6 7 4 3 4 5 7 2 0 1 0	135	27.01	27.27	62.5%
3 7 5 4 8 4 4 7 6 6 5 6 4 4 5 5 5 4 6 6 4 4 3 6 8 2 1 2 1	135	24.63	27.83	62.5%
1 5 6 4 9 4 3 8 5 5 6 7 4 3 5 6 6 4 6 6 5 3 4 6 8 2 1 2 1	135	24.46	27.53	62.5%
3 5 6 6 8 4 4 7 4 4 5 7 3 4 5 6 5 4 6 6 6 4 3 6 6 3 1 2 0	133	28.20	26.76	61.6%
3 6 6 4 8 4 4 8 5 5 5 7 4 3 6 6 4 4 6 6 4 3 3 6 8 3 0 2 0	133	27.48	27.05^†2	62.1%