Introducing Massey Ratings

May 19, 2018May 19, 2018 by Max Barry

It’s another new model! Ken Massey is an internationally known sports statistician whose Massey Ratings cover a vast array of sports, including AFL.

		W	L	%
1	GWS	16	6	138.2
2	Geelong	15	7	134.2
3	Port Adelaide	15	7	129.3
4	Collingwood	14	8	126.1
5	Richmond	13	9	112.1
6	West Coast	13	9	109.0
7	Essendon	12	10	103.6
8	St Kilda	12	10	98.6
9	Hawthorn	11	11	103.1
10	Brisbane Lions	11	11	97.5
11	Fremantle	10	12	96.0
12	Western Bulldogs	10	12	91.5
13	Adelaide	9	13	93.2
14	Melbourne	9	13	89.2
15	Gold Coast	9	13	80.9
16	North Melbourne	7	15	76.4
17	Sydney	6	16	75.8
18	Carlton	6	16	77.6

LEADERBOARD 2019

After 3 games of Round 5, 2019.

	Tips	Bits	MAE	Correct
5 4 7 5 2	23	0.61	25.72	59.0%
5 4 6 6 2	23	-3.35	33.31	59.0%
5 3 6 5 2	21	-3.03	31.64	53.8%
5 4 5 4 2	20	-0.40	31.71	51.3%
4 3 6 6 1	20	-1.20	29.69	51.3%
3 4 6 5 2	20	-2.17	30.62	51.3%
4 4 5 5 2	20	-3.99	30.93	51.3%
Punters 3 4 6 5 2	20	-4.56	32.29	51.3%
4 5 6 4 1	20	-6.33	32.64	51.3%
3 3 5 6 2	19	-2.42	32.82	48.7%
4 3 5 5 2	19	-2.48	34.74	48.7%
3 3 5 6 2	19	-5.20	33.31	48.7%
3 2 6 6 2	19	-5.48	33.59	48.7%
4 3 5 4 2	18	-1.56	29.67	46.2%
Aggregate 3 3 6 4 2	18	-2.35	31.16	46.2%
3 3 4 4 2	16	-6.30	36.94	41.0%
1 6 5 0 1	13	-7.04	30.95	33.3%

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

Drawn games are counted as correct tips.