Introducing Massey Ratings

May 19, 2018May 19, 2018 by Max Barry

It’s another new model! Ken Massey is an internationally known sports statistician whose Massey Ratings cover a vast array of sports, including AFL.

		W	L	D	%
1	Richmond	18	4	0	140.0
2	West Coast	16	6	0	122.6
3	GWS	14	7	1	118.5
4	Hawthorn	14	8	0	120.7
5	Collingwood	14	8	0	118.9
6	Sydney	14	8	0	108.1
7	Melbourne	13	9	0	127.5
8	Geelong	13	9	0	122.3
9	Port Adelaide	13	9	0	112.6
10	North Melbourne	12	10	0	108.1
11	Essendon	11	11	0	103.2
12	Adelaide	11	11	0	100.7
13	Fremantle	8	14	0	79.8
14	Western Bulldogs	8	14	0	75.5
15	St Kilda	5	16	1	75.1
16	Brisbane Lions	5	17	0	90.7
17	Gold Coast	4	18	0	60.7
18	Carlton	2	20	0	61.5

2018 Tip Leaderboard

After 1 game of Round 22.

	Tips	Bits	MAE	Correct
7 3 8 7 4 7 8 6 6 6 7 4 5 5 6 8 3 7 7 7 6 1	128	31.64	26.26	70.7%
Aggregate 7 3 8 7 5 7 8 5 6 6 7 4 6 5 5 8 4 7 7 7 5 1	128	30.38	26.31	70.7%
7 3 8 7 5 6 8 5 6 6 8 4 5 5 5 8 4 7 7 7 6 1	128	26.03	26.83	70.7%
Punters 7 3 7 6 5 8 8 5 7 6 7 5 6 5 5 8 3 7 7 5 5 1	126	31.48		69.6%
6 3 8 7 4 9 8 6 5 5 8 4 5 5 5 8 5 7 5 7 5 1	126	26.99	27.48	69.6%
7 4 7 7 5 6 8 5 6 7 7 3 5 5 5 8 5 7 5 8 5 1	126	25.34	26.94	69.6%
6 3 7 7 5 7 8 5 6 7 7 3 6 5 5 8 3 6 8 7 5 1	125	32.35	26.37	69.1%
6 4 8 5 6 8 8 5 5 6 9 4 5 4 3 9 3 7 8 6 5 1	125	18.39	28.83	69.1%
6 3 8 6 6 6 8 5 7 6 7 4 5 5 6 8 4 5 7 6 5 1	124	27.98	26.70	68.5%
7 3 8 7 5 7 8 5 7 5 8 3 4 5 5 8 4 6 6 5 5 1	122	26.98	27.06	67.4%
7 3 8 7 4 6 8 5 6 6 7 4 5 5 4 8 5 6 5 5 6 1	121	27.85	27.09	66.9%
6 4 6 6 3 8 6 6 5 5 7 4 6 4 4 8 6 4 6 7 7 1	119	22.75	27.90	65.7%
6 3 7 7 5 7 7 5 5 6 7 3 6 5 4 8 3 6 7 4 6 1	118	30.06	26.39	65.2%

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

Drawn games are counted as correct tips.