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Introducing Massey Ratings

Posted on May 19, 2018May 19, 2018 by Max Barry

It’s another new model! Ken Massey is an internationally known sports statistician whose Massey Ratings cover a vast array of sports, including AFL.

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Projected Ladder

PROJECTED LADDER Updated 2019-06-17 09:28:04.

Footy Maths Institute
Graft
Squiggle
Live Ladders
Massey Ratings
Stattraction
PlusSixOne
AFL Lab
Matter of Stats
AFLalytics
Swinburne
The Arc

Click teams to reveal detailed projections. After Round 13, 2019.

Wins % Range
1
 Geelong 18.7 144%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Collingwood 15.5 123%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–3
3
 GWS 15.2 129%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–3
4
 West Coast 13.6 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–5
5
 Adelaide 13.2 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–6
6
 Richmond 12.3 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–9
7
 Fremantle 12.1 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–10
8
 Brisbane Lions 11.7 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–10
9
 Port Adelaide 11.3 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–10
10
 Essendon 11.2 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–10
11
 Hawthorn 9.9 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–12
12
 St Kilda 9.6 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–14
13
 North Melbourne 9.1 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–14
14
 Sydney 8.8 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–15
15
 Western Bulldogs 8.4 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–16
16
 Melbourne 7.6 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15–16
17
 Carlton 4.9 79%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18
18
 Gold Coast 4.9 71%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18
2019-06-16 19:04:09Footy Maths Institute
 14.4
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4
2019-06-16 18:32:07Graft
 13.2 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4
2019-06-16 18:00:13Squiggle
 13.0 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4
2019-06-17 09:28:04Live Ladders
 12.7 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4
2019-06-16 19:04:16Massey Ratings
 13.6
5
2019-06-16 20:08:13Stattraction
 13.0 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5
2019-06-12 10:32:20PlusSixOne
 13.4
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5
2019-06-11 21:12:15AFL Lab
 12.9 108%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5
2019-06-11 13:00:26Matter of Stats
 12.5 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5
2019-06-16 19:04:07AFLalytics
 12.6 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5
2019-06-11 21:06:16Swinburne
 13.0 110%
5
2019-06-11 13:44:04The Arc
 12.3 108%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6
2019-06-16 19:04:09Footy Maths Institute
 12.4
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7
2019-06-11 13:00:26Matter of Stats
 11.9 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7
2019-06-16 19:04:16Massey Ratings
 12.1
8
2019-06-16 19:04:07AFLalytics
 11.9 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8
2019-06-11 21:12:15AFL Lab
 11.8 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8
2019-06-16 20:08:13Stattraction
 11.7 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8
2019-06-11 13:44:04The Arc
 11.6 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8
2019-06-16 18:00:13Squiggle
 11.7 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9
2019-06-11 21:06:16Swinburne
 11.0 98%
9
2019-06-12 10:32:20PlusSixOne
 11.0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9
2019-06-16 18:32:07Graft
 11.5 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
2019-06-17 09:28:04Live Ladders
 11.3 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
2019-06-16 19:04:09Footy Maths Institute
 4.6
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
2019-06-11 13:44:04The Arc
 5.6 83%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
2019-06-11 21:12:15AFL Lab
 5.7 85%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
2019-06-11 21:06:16Swinburne
 5.0 75%
17
2019-06-16 19:04:16Massey Ratings
 4.6
17
2019-06-16 18:00:13Squiggle
 5.0 80%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
2019-06-16 19:04:07AFLalytics
 5.1 79%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
2019-06-16 18:32:07Graft
 4.8 79%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
2019-06-17 09:28:04Live Ladders
 4.6 79%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
2019-06-12 10:32:20PlusSixOne
 4.3
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18
2019-06-11 13:00:26Matter of Stats
 6.0 80%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18
2019-06-16 20:08:13Stattraction
 4.8 77%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18
2019-06-16 19:04:16Massey Ratings
 15.9
2
2019-06-11 21:12:15AFL Lab
 15.8 117%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
2019-06-16 20:08:13Stattraction
 15.3 127%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
2019-06-11 13:00:26Matter of Stats
 14.9 122%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
2019-06-11 13:44:04The Arc
 15.0 119%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
2019-06-11 21:06:16Swinburne
 16.0 125%
2
2019-06-12 10:32:20PlusSixOne
 16.0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
2019-06-17 09:28:04Live Ladders
 15.5 124%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
2019-06-16 19:04:09Footy Maths Institute
 16.9
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
2019-06-16 18:32:07Graft
 15.1 121%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
2019-06-16 18:00:13Squiggle
 15.1 123%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
2019-06-16 19:04:07AFLalytics
 14.9 121%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
2019-06-16 19:04:09Footy Maths Institute
 11.9
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8
2019-06-16 18:32:07Graft
 11.4 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8
2019-06-16 20:08:13Stattraction
 11.3 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9
2019-06-16 19:04:16Massey Ratings
 11.6
9
2019-06-11 21:12:15AFL Lab
 11.0 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9
2019-06-17 09:28:04Live Ladders
 10.7 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9
2019-06-16 18:00:13Squiggle
 11.0 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
2019-06-12 10:32:20PlusSixOne
 10.8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
2019-06-11 13:44:04The Arc
 10.8 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
2019-06-16 19:04:07AFLalytics
 10.9 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
2019-06-11 13:00:26Matter of Stats
 10.8 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
2019-06-11 21:06:16Swinburne
 10.0 102%
10
2019-06-16 19:04:09Footy Maths Institute
 13.8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6
2019-06-16 19:04:16Massey Ratings
 12.5
6
2019-06-16 18:00:13Squiggle
 12.4 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6
2019-06-16 20:08:13Stattraction
 12.0 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6
2019-06-16 19:04:07AFLalytics
 11.9 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7
2019-06-16 18:32:07Graft
 11.8 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7
2019-06-17 09:28:04Live Ladders
 11.6 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8
2019-06-12 10:32:20PlusSixOne
 11.2
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8
2019-06-11 21:06:16Swinburne
 11.0 102%
8
2019-06-11 13:00:26Matter of Stats
 11.6 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9
2019-06-11 13:44:04The Arc
 11.2 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9
2019-06-11 21:12:15AFL Lab
 10.6 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
2019-06-16 19:04:09Footy Maths Institute
 20.7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2019-06-16 19:04:16Massey Ratings
 19.6
1
2019-06-16 18:32:07Graft
 18.6 144%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2019-06-11 21:12:15AFL Lab
 19.2 135%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2019-06-16 20:08:13Stattraction
 18.7 156%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2019-06-12 10:32:20PlusSixOne
 19.9
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2019-06-11 21:06:16Swinburne
 19.0 155%
1
2019-06-17 09:28:04Live Ladders
 18.0 140%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2019-06-16 19:04:07AFLalytics
 17.8 139%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2019-06-11 13:44:04The Arc
 18.0 136%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2019-06-16 18:00:13Squiggle
 17.9 142%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2019-06-11 13:00:26Matter of Stats
 17.2 138%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2019-06-11 13:00:26Matter of Stats
 6.3 72%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
2019-06-12 10:32:20PlusSixOne
 4.5
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
2019-06-16 20:08:13Stattraction
 5.4 69%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
2019-06-11 13:44:04The Arc
 5.9 77%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18
2019-06-11 21:06:16Swinburne
 5.0 68%
18
2019-06-11 21:12:15AFL Lab
 4.8 78%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18
2019-06-17 09:28:04Live Ladders
 5.3 72%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18
2019-06-16 18:00:13Squiggle
 5.1 71%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18
2019-06-16 18:32:07Graft
 5.0 71%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18
2019-06-16 19:04:07AFLalytics
 4.8 68%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18
2019-06-16 19:04:09Footy Maths Institute
 3.3
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18
2019-06-16 19:04:16Massey Ratings
 4.5
18
2019-06-16 19:04:09Footy Maths Institute
 17.1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
2019-06-16 19:04:07AFLalytics
 15.0 132%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
2019-06-16 18:00:13Squiggle
 15.2 133%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
2019-06-16 18:32:07Graft
 15.1 129%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
2019-06-17 09:28:04Live Ladders
 14.8 127%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
2019-06-16 19:04:16Massey Ratings
 14.8
3
2019-06-16 20:08:13Stattraction
 14.9 132%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
2019-06-11 21:12:15AFL Lab
 14.9 123%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
2019-06-11 13:00:26Matter of Stats
 14.0 127%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
2019-06-11 21:06:16Swinburne
 15.0 129%
3
2019-06-12 10:32:20PlusSixOne
 15.4
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
2019-06-11 13:44:04The Arc
 14.1 121%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
2019-06-11 21:06:16Swinburne
 10.0 101%
11
2019-06-11 13:44:04The Arc
 10.4 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11
2019-06-12 10:32:20PlusSixOne
 10.2
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11
2019-06-11 13:00:26Matter of Stats
 10.4 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11
2019-06-11 21:12:15AFL Lab
 10.1 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11
2019-06-16 18:00:13Squiggle
 10.1 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11
2019-06-16 18:32:07Graft
 10.0 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11
2019-06-16 19:04:09Footy Maths Institute
 9.4
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11
2019-06-16 20:08:13Stattraction
 9.8 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11
2019-06-17 09:28:04Live Ladders
 10.0 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12
2019-06-16 19:04:07AFLalytics
 9.9 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12
2019-06-16 19:04:16Massey Ratings
 9.4
12
2019-06-12 10:32:20PlusSixOne
 7.8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
2019-06-16 19:04:07AFLalytics
 8.4 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
2019-06-16 18:00:13Squiggle
 8.1 87%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
2019-06-11 21:06:16Swinburne
 8.0 84%
16
2019-06-16 20:08:13Stattraction
 8.0 132%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
2019-06-16 18:32:07Graft
 8.0 86%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
2019-06-11 13:44:04The Arc
 7.8 87%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
2019-06-17 09:28:04Live Ladders
 8.1 87%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
2019-06-11 13:00:26Matter of Stats
 8.0 86%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
2019-06-16 19:04:09Footy Maths Institute
 5.8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
2019-06-11 21:12:15AFL Lab
 6.1 84%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
2019-06-16 19:04:16Massey Ratings
 6.7
16
2019-06-11 21:12:15AFL Lab
 10.1 97%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12
2019-06-11 13:44:04The Arc
 9.6 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12
2019-06-16 19:04:09Footy Maths Institute
 8.6
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12
2019-06-11 21:06:16Swinburne
 9.0 94%
13
2019-06-11 13:00:26Matter of Stats
 9.8 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13
2019-06-16 18:32:07Graft
 9.1 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13
2019-06-16 19:04:16Massey Ratings
 9.3
13
2019-06-16 18:00:13Squiggle
 8.8 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13
2019-06-12 10:32:20PlusSixOne
 8.4
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14
2019-06-16 19:04:07AFLalytics
 9.2 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14
2019-06-17 09:28:04Live Ladders
 9.2 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14
2019-06-16 20:08:13Stattraction
 8.9 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14
2019-06-12 10:32:20PlusSixOne
 12.7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7
2019-06-11 13:44:04The Arc
 11.9 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7
2019-06-11 21:12:15AFL Lab
 11.8 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7
2019-06-17 09:28:04Live Ladders
 11.6 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7
2019-06-11 21:06:16Swinburne
 12.0 107%
7
2019-06-11 13:00:26Matter of Stats
 11.8 108%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8
2019-06-16 18:00:13Squiggle
 11.8 110%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8
2019-06-16 19:04:07AFLalytics
 11.6 108%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9
2019-06-16 18:32:07Graft
 11.3 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9
2019-06-16 20:08:13Stattraction
 10.8 103%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
2019-06-16 19:04:09Footy Maths Institute
 10.3
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10
2019-06-16 19:04:16Massey Ratings
 10.8
10
2019-06-11 13:44:04The Arc
 12.9 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5
2019-06-11 21:06:16Swinburne
 13.0 103%
6
2019-06-17 09:28:04Live Ladders
 12.7 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6
2019-06-12 10:32:20PlusSixOne
 13.0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6
2019-06-11 21:12:15AFL Lab
 12.3 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6
2019-06-16 18:32:07Graft
 12.4 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6
2019-06-16 19:04:07AFLalytics
 12.3 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6
2019-06-11 13:00:26Matter of Stats
 12.1 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6
2019-06-16 19:04:16Massey Ratings
 12.2
7
2019-06-16 18:00:13Squiggle
 12.3 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7
2019-06-16 20:08:13Stattraction
 11.9 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7
2019-06-16 19:04:09Footy Maths Institute
 11.8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9
2019-06-17 09:28:04Live Ladders
 10.6 91%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11
2019-06-16 19:04:16Massey Ratings
 9.4
11
2019-06-16 19:04:07AFLalytics
 10.2 88%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11
2019-06-16 18:00:13Squiggle
 10.3 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12
2019-06-11 13:00:26Matter of Stats
 10.1 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12
2019-06-12 10:32:20PlusSixOne
 8.7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12
2019-06-11 21:12:15AFL Lab
 10.0 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13
2019-06-16 20:08:13Stattraction
 9.7 87%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13
2019-06-11 13:44:04The Arc
 9.6 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13
2019-06-16 18:32:07Graft
 9.5 86%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14
2019-06-11 21:06:16Swinburne
 9.0 84%
14
2019-06-16 19:04:09Footy Maths Institute
 8.0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14
2019-06-11 21:06:16Swinburne
 9.0 96%
12
2019-06-16 18:32:07Graft
 9.4 97%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12
2019-06-16 20:08:13Stattraction
 9.4 94%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12
2019-06-12 10:32:20PlusSixOne
 8.7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13
2019-06-17 09:28:04Live Ladders
 9.4 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13
2019-06-16 19:04:09Footy Maths Institute
 7.9
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13
2019-06-11 13:44:04The Arc
 8.9 95%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14
2019-06-11 21:12:15AFL Lab
 8.7 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14
2019-06-16 19:04:16Massey Ratings
 8.7
14
2019-06-11 13:00:26Matter of Stats
 8.9 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
2019-06-16 19:04:07AFLalytics
 8.6 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
2019-06-16 18:00:13Squiggle
 8.2 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
2019-06-16 19:04:16Massey Ratings
 13.7
4
2019-06-11 21:12:15AFL Lab
 13.9 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4
2019-06-11 21:06:16Swinburne
 15.0 110%
4
2019-06-11 13:44:04The Arc
 13.9 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4
2019-06-16 20:08:13Stattraction
 13.6 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4
2019-06-16 19:04:07AFLalytics
 13.5 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4
2019-06-12 10:32:20PlusSixOne
 14.4
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4
2019-06-11 13:00:26Matter of Stats
 12.9 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4
2019-06-16 18:32:07Graft
 13.6 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5
2019-06-16 19:04:09Footy Maths Institute
 14.3
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5
2019-06-17 09:28:04Live Ladders
 13.2 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5
2019-06-16 18:00:13Squiggle
 13.0 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5
2019-06-16 19:04:07AFLalytics
 9.3 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13
2019-06-11 13:00:26Matter of Stats
 8.9 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14
2019-06-16 18:00:13Squiggle
 8.8 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14
2019-06-11 21:06:16Swinburne
 8.0 88%
15
2019-06-16 20:08:13Stattraction
 8.8 87%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
2019-06-17 09:28:04Live Ladders
 8.9 89%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
2019-06-11 13:44:04The Arc
 8.4 90%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
2019-06-11 21:12:15AFL Lab
 8.4 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
2019-06-16 18:32:07Graft
 8.3 86%
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2019-06-16 19:04:09Footy Maths Institute
 6.9
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2019-06-16 19:04:16Massey Ratings
 7.9
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2019-06-12 10:32:20PlusSixOne
 7.5
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Live Hasn't factored in current round in progress Hasn't factored in last completed round

This ladder is a weighted average of all models: Full weighting 50% less weighting 75% less weighting

+ About ladder projections...

Ladder Projections are weirder than they first appear! It's natural to think that there are many possible ladders and we should simply pick the most likely one. The problem is there are far more possible ladders than you can imagine—more than the number of atoms in the universe. Even ignoring the number of wins and simply trying to rank teams in order, there are 6.4 quadrillion possible combinations.

Until there are only one or two rounds left, even the most likely ladder has no chance of actually occurring — the likelihood is so close to zero, it may as well be.

So we need to abandon any hope of being able to actually pick the final ladder. Instead, what we're attempting to do is to minimize the amount of error between our prediction and reality.

This raises a few subjective questions, such as: What is the most important part of a ladder? Is it the ranking or the number of wins? Because we can't always minimize the error in both at once.

This ladder cares most about ranks, because that determines finals positions. But ranks are derived from wins, and wins are more predictable — a good model should get the number of wins about right, but can easily miss the mark on ranks, since those can change sharply from only a few unexpected results, particularly around the middle of the ladder.

Projected ladders, then, are a series of compromises. They won't get everything right, and they often can't make one thing more right without making something else more wrong. Such quirks are the unavoidable result of attempting to distill a wide range of possible futures down into one single ladder — which will definitely be wrong, but is hopefully close.

Common Questions

Q. Why is the season tipped to be so close?

Most early-season projections will predict an unusually close year, tipping too few wins for the top team and too many for the wooden spooner. This isn't an error; it's because "How many wins will the top team have, whoever they turn out to be?" is actually a different question to "How many wins will Geelong have?" — even if we expect Geelong to finish on top!

It's highly likely that the minor premier will turn out to be a team that wins more games than people expected. But we can't know who this will be, since we can't predict who will be better than we predict.

It's the same as tossing a coin 10 times: If I'm predicting a ladder, I'd say heads and tails will each go 5-5, since this is their long-term average. I know that whichever one finishes on top will probably score 6 or more flips (75% chance), but I can't say which one that will be. I have to choose which question I want to get right: the number of wins for each team, or the number of wins of whoever finishes on top. If I choose to answer the first question, I will get a more accurate forecast of wins per team, but at the price of sacrificing some accuracy from the shape of the overall win distribution.

Q. Why is a team ranked lower even though it has more projected wins?

Usually because of percentage. When a team is projected to have "12.2 wins," this really means: "a bit more likely to have over 12 wins than under." At the end of the season, everyone will have whole numbers of wins (plus draws), and at this point, their ladder position may be determined by their percentage. Ladder projections based on tens of thousands of simulations can tally up the number of times this occurs and figure out which may matter more: an edge in projected wins or a lead in percentage.

It's also possible for this to happen because this is an aggregate Projected Ladder, combining the predictions of many different sources, and it prioritizes predicted ranks over anything else. So if, on average, the sources rank Port Adelaide higher than Richmond, that's where the Projected Ladder will place them, too. It will do this even if, on average, Richmond have higher both predicted wins and predicted percentage — which is possible because different models will have different ideas about how wins might be distributed. Fundamentally, the Projected Ladder trusts each source to interpret its own data and reach sensible conclusions about what this means in terms of likely finishing position.

It's also worth noting that there's a little more sophistication than meets the eye in how "average rank" is calculated. For sources that provide finish position estimates — those colourful bars that show how likely each team is to finish in each position — the Projected Ladder calculates true average finishing ranks, rather than relying on simple ordinals. For example, if a model says that West Coast have a 90% chance of finishing 1st and a 10% chance of finishing 2nd, their simple ordinal finishing rank is 1, while their true average finishing rank is 1.1. If they have a 60% chance of finishing 1st and a 40% chance of finishing 2nd, their simple ordinal rank is still 1, while their true average finishing rank is 1.4 — much closer to the midpoint of 1st and 2nd. In this way, the Projected Ladder is able to distinguish more precisely between teams predicted to finish close together.

Q. Why doesn't the ladder make logical sense?

Sometimes ladders don't add up to the exact right number of wins, or predict teams to finish in logically impossible places, such as tipping a team to finish 4th with one round to go when it must finish either 3rd or 5th. The natural human response is to think that if they can't get even such basic things right, they shouldn't be trusted at all. In fact, the ladder is probably prioritizing error minimization, and is likely to be more accurate, at least by that measure, than a ladder that insists on being logically possible.

Live Squiggle

Models Leaderboard

LEADERBOARD

After Round 13, 2019.

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Matter of Stats

4 5 6 4 4 9 7 6 8 6 8 4 6

77 12.14 25.85 69.4%
Stattraction

5 4 6 6 5 9 7 6 8 6 6 3 5

76 13.06 26.89 68.5%
Footy Maths Institute

4 3 5 5 5 9 8 7 7 8 7 3 5

76 12.69 27.15 68.5%
Graft

5 3 6 5 5 9 7 7 7 8 6 4 4

76 11.44 25.68 68.5%
Punters

3 4 6 5 5 8 7 6 8 7 7 4 6

76 10.89 25.76 68.5%
Squiggle

5 4 5 4 6 8 7 5 8 7 7 4 5

75 12.56 26.24 67.6%
The Arc

3 4 6 5 5 8 7 4 8 7 7 5 6

75 12.19 25.67 67.6%
PlusSixOne

4 3 5 4 5 9 7 7 8 7 6 4 6

75 10.09 25.02 67.6%
AFL Lab

5 4 7 5 5 8 7 5 7 6 7 3 5

74 13.88 24.01 66.7%
Massey Ratings

3 3 5 6 5 9 8 5 7 7 7 3 6

74 8.25 26.92 66.7%
Swinburne

3 3 5 6 5 8 7 7 7 7 6 3 6

73 11.73 26.85 65.8%
AFLalytics

3 2 6 6 5 8 7 4 8 7 7 5 5

73 11.08 26.69 65.8%
Live Ladders

4 3 6 6 4 8 7 6 7 8 6 3 4

72 11.87 25.21 64.9%
Aggregate

3 3 6 4 5 8 7 6 7 7 7 3 5

71 12.28 25.64 64.0%
Fat Stats

3 3 4 4 5 8 7 6 7 6 7 3 5

68 5.28 28.34 61.3%
AFL Gains

1 6 5 0 4 7 7 6 7 7 7 3 6

66 2.26 27.24 59.5%
HPN

4 4 5 5 4 8 5 5 8 6 5 2 5

66 -0.45 29.12 59.5%

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

Drawn games are counted as correct tips.

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About Squiggle

Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.