Introducing Massey Ratings

May 19, 2018May 19, 2018 by Max Barry

It’s another new model! Ken Massey is an internationally known sports statistician whose Massey Ratings cover a vast array of sports, including AFL.

		W	L	%
1	Richmond	14	8	128.9
2	GWS	14	8	127.6
3	Melbourne	14	8	126.6
4	West Coast	14	8	122.6
5	Geelong	13	9	118.8
6	Collingwood	13	9	116.8
7	Essendon	13	9	113.7
8	Adelaide	13	9	112.1
9	Hawthorn	12	10	107.1
10	Port Adelaide	12	10	105.6
11	North Melbourne	11	11	98.2
12	Brisbane Lions	10	12	92.7
13	St Kilda	10	12	92.6
14	Western Bulldogs	9	13	87.2
15	Sydney	9	13	85.2
16	Fremantle	8	14	78.9
17	Carlton	6	16	65.8
18	Gold Coast	4	18	59.6

2018 Tip Leaderboard

Final standings after 207 games.

	Tips	Bits	MAE	Correct
Punters 7 3 7 6 5 8 8 5 7 6 7 5 6 5 5 8 3 7 7 5 5 7 8 4 2 1 0	147	39.76		71.0%
7 3 8 7 4 7 8 6 6 6 7 4 5 5 6 8 3 7 7 7 6 7 7 4 2 0 0	147	38.01	26.55	71.0%
Aggregate 7 3 8 7 5 7 8 5 6 6 7 4 6 5 5 8 4 7 7 7 5 7 7 4 2 0 0	147	37.30	26.63	71.0%
7 3 8 7 5 6 8 5 6 6 8 4 5 5 5 8 4 7 7 7 6 7 7 3 2 0 1	147	33.63	27.17	71.0%
6 3 7 7 5 7 8 5 6 7 7 3 6 5 5 8 3 6 8 7 5 7 8 4 2 1 0	146	39.27	26.73	70.5%
6 3 8 7 4 9 8 6 5 5 8 4 5 5 5 8 5 7 5 7 5 8 7 2 2 1 1	146	33.24	27.54	70.5%
7 4 7 7 5 6 8 5 6 7 7 3 5 5 5 8 5 7 5 8 5 7 7 3 2 1 1	146	29.66	27.23	70.5%
6 4 8 5 6 8 8 5 5 6 9 4 5 4 3 9 3 7 8 6 5 8 9 3 2 0 0	146	24.79	29.11	70.5%
6 3 8 6 6 6 8 5 7 6 7 4 5 5 6 8 4 5 7 6 5 7 7 3 2 0 0	142	34.55	27.05	68.6%
7 3 8 7 5 7 8 5 7 5 8 3 4 5 5 8 4 6 6 5 5 7 7 3 2 1 0	141	32.75	27.26	68.1%
7 3 8 7 4 6 8 5 6 6 7 4 5 5 4 8 5 6 5 5 6 7 7 3 2 1 0	140	35.05	27.43	67.6%
6 4 6 6 3 8 6 6 5 5 7 4 6 4 4 8 6 4 6 7 7 8 9 2 2 0 0	139	28.20	28.15	67.1%
6 3 7 7 5 7 7 5 5 6 7 3 6 5 4 8 3 6 7 4 6 7 8 4 2 0 0	138	37.90	26.61	66.7%

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

Drawn games are counted as correct tips.