Most computer models of AFL have no awareness of who’s actually playing in either team. They rate the strength of competing clubs as an entity, rather than what they really are: a collection of moving parts, some of whom move a lot better than others.
Earlier this year, HPN, the artist formerly known as Hurling People Now, launched PERT, a tipping model that draws on the ratings of the actual players, as determined by the PAV system.
It’s early days, but PERT looks likely to add a fascinating new dimension to model-based tipping, and is definitely worth keeping an eye on.
Because PERT tips depend on the announced teams, they come out later in the week and can alter based on last-minute personnel changes.
I’m delighted to have HPN on board and PERT tips are now integrated into Squiggle dials and the leaderboard!