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Hardest Round Ever?

Posted on July 21, 2017July 21, 2017 by Max Barry

It’s a tough round to tip, observes Matter of Stats:

I’ve been collecting complete TAB Bookmaker data on the line market since 2012, and the average expected victory margin this week – 12.9 points per game – is the lowest it’s been for any home and away round during that period.

Source: 2017 – Round 18 : Hardest Round Ever? — Matter of Stats

CategoriesMatter of Stats

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Wins % Range
1
 Brisbane Lions 14.5 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
2
 Western Bulldogs 13.5 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2–11
3
 Geelong 13.6 116%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–8
4
 Hawthorn 13.0 120%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–17
5
 Collingwood 12.4 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–11
6
 Sydney 12.4 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4–11
7
 Fremantle 12.3 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–10
8
 Carlton 12.4 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–12
9
 GWS 12.2 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–12
10
 Melbourne 12.3 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–14
11
 Adelaide 12.2 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7–13
12
 Port Adelaide 11.7 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–13
13
 St Kilda 11.7 100%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–13
14
 Gold Coast 10.4 97%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–16
15
 Essendon 10.0 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 Richmond 7.7 75%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–18
17
 West Coast 7.7 79%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–18
18
 North Melbourne 7.1 73%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14–18

Pre-season 2025.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Adelaide – – –
+12.2
11
2
 Brisbane Lions – – –
+14.5
1
3
 Carlton – – –
+12.4
8
4
 Collingwood – – –
+12.4
5
5
 Essendon – – –
+10.0
15
6
 Fremantle – – –
+12.3
7
7
 Geelong – – –
+13.6
3
8
 Gold Coast – – –
+10.4
14
9
 GWS – – –
+12.2
9
10
 Hawthorn – – –
+13.0
4
11
 Melbourne – – –
+12.3
10
12
 North Melbourne – – –
+7.1
18
13
 Port Adelaide – – –
+11.7
12
14
 Richmond – – –
+7.7
16
15
 St Kilda – – –
+11.7
13
16
 Sydney – – –
+12.4
6
17
 West Coast – – –
+7.7
17
18
 Western Bulldogs – – –
+13.5
2

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