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Hardest Round Ever?

Posted on July 21, 2017July 21, 2017 by Max Barry

It’s a tough round to tip, observes Matter of Stats:

I’ve been collecting complete TAB Bookmaker data on the line market since 2012, and the average expected victory margin this week – 12.9 points per game – is the lowest it’s been for any home and away round during that period.

Source: 2017 – Round 18 : Hardest Round Ever? — Matter of Stats

CategoriesMatter of Stats

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Wins % Range
1
 Hawthorn 14.8 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
2
 Brisbane Lions 14.7 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1–2
3
 Western Bulldogs 14.4 116%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
4
 Geelong 14.2 114%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4
5
 Port Adelaide 12.2 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–11
6
 GWS 12.2 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6
7
 Fremantle 12.3 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7
8
 Sydney 12.2 104%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5–10
9
 Collingwood 11.9 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–10
10
 St Kilda 11.8 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–12
11
 Carlton 11.8 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–12
12
 Adelaide 11.6 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–13
13
 Gold Coast 11.2 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–14
14
 Melbourne 11.1 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13–14
15
 Essendon 10.8 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 West Coast 7.0 80%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
17
 Richmond 6.7 78%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16–17
18
 North Melbourne 5.5 74%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

Pre-season 2025.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Adelaide – – –
+11.6
12
2
 Brisbane Lions – – –
+14.7
2
3
 Carlton – – –
+11.8
11
4
 Collingwood – – –
+11.9
9
5
 Essendon – – –
+10.8
15
6
 Fremantle – – –
+12.3
7
7
 Geelong – – –
+14.2
4
8
 Gold Coast – – –
+11.2
13
9
 GWS – – –
+12.2
6
10
 Hawthorn – – –
+14.8
1
11
 Melbourne – – –
+11.1
14
12
 North Melbourne – – –
+5.5
18
13
 Port Adelaide – – –
+12.2
5
14
 Richmond – – –
+6.7
17
15
 St Kilda – – –
+11.8
10
16
 Sydney – – –
+12.2
8
17
 West Coast – – –
+7.0
16
18
 Western Bulldogs – – –
+14.4
3

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Live Ladders

3 8 7 4 8 4 3 9 6 6 5 6 4 5 6 6 7 6 9 7 5 6 5 6 9 2 1 2 1

156 33.35 26.36 72.2%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 4 9 4 5 7 6 5 5 6 5 5 6 5 5 4 6 7 6 4 3 6 9 2 1 1 1

143 33.50 26.52 66.2%
Informed Stats

2 7 6 4 8 4 4 7 7 5 6 6 4 6 5 6 5 4 6 6 7 5 4 6 8 2 1 1 1

143 26.77 27.31 66.2%
The Wooden Finger

3 5 6 5 9 4 3 8 6 5 5 8 4 3 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 4 6 7 3 1 1 1

143 24.32 27.08 66.2%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 6 4 9 4 5 8 5 6 5 7 4 5 5 5 6 5 7 6 4 5 4 5 7 2 2 1 1

142 26.14 27.23 65.7%
AFLalytics

3 7 6 4 8 4 5 9 6 5 5 6 5 5 6 5 7 5 7 6 4 4 3 6 7 2 0 1 0

141 29.77 27.17 65.3%
Graft

2 6 6 4 9 4 4 8 5 6 5 7 3 5 6 6 7 4 7 6 5 5 4 6 6 3 0 1 1

141 27.38 27.27 65.3%
s10

3 6 6 4 8 4 5 9 6 5 5 7 5 5 6 6 4 4 7 7 5 3 3 6 7 2 0 1 1

140 30.91 26.70 64.8%
Squiggle

2 6 6 4 7 4 4 9 5 4 6 6 4 4 6 6 4 5 8 8 5 3 5 6 7 2 1 2 1

140 29.73 26.76 64.8%
Drop Kick Data

3 6 6 3 8 4 4 8 5 5 6 7 3 5 6 6 4 4 5 7 6 5 4 6 9 2 1 1 1

140 29.21 26.92 64.8%
Massey Ratings

2 7 8 4 7 4 3 8 6 6 5 7 3 4 6 6 6 4 7 7 5 5 3 6 6 2 1 1 1

140 27.51 26.79 64.8%
Aggregate

3 6 6 4 9 4 5 8 6 5 5 7 4 4 6 6 4 4 7 6 4 4 3 6 7 2 1 2 1

139 30.19 26.64 64.4%
What Snoo Thinks

3 6 6 5 8 4 4 8 7 6 6 7 3 4 6 6 5 4 6 6 4 3 4 6 7 2 2 1

139 28.36 27.23†2 65.0%
Elo Predicts!

3 7 7 5 9 4 5 8 5 5 5 7 3 4 6 6 5 4 6 5 4 4 3 6 7 2 1 2 1

139 27.41 26.80 64.4%
Matter of Stats

3 6 6 4 8 4 5 8 6 5 5 6 4 4 6 6 5 4 8 6 4 5 4 5 8 2 0 1 1

139 27.00 27.34 64.4%
Cheap Stats

1 7 6 4 9 4 5 8 5 5 6 7 4 3 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 3 5 6 9 2 1 2

139 26.60 27.27†1 64.7%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 4 8 4 5 9 5 5 5 7 3 4 6 6 6 3 5 7 7 4 4 6 7 2 0 1 1

139 21.53 28.11 64.4%
Data by Josh

3 7 6 4 6 4 4 9 5 6 4 8 6 5 6 6 6 4 5 7 6 2 4 6 9

138 32.10 26.50†13 68.0%
AFL Lab

3 7 6 4 9 3 4 8 5 4 5 6 3 4 4 4 6 6 8 7 6 5 4 4 8 2 2 0 1

138 28.01 26.72 63.9%
FMI

3 7 6 4 9 4 5 9 5 4 5 7 3 3 6 5 6 6 7 6 5 4 2 6 7 2 0 2 0

138 27.46 27.20†1 64.2%
Hyperion

1 7 7 4 9 4 5 9 5 6 6 7 3 3 6 5 6 5 5 6 4 5 3 7 8 2 0

138 26.81 27.44†4 65.1%
The Footycast

3 6 6 4 9 4 3 7 6 6 5 7 4 3 6 6 4 4 6 6 6 5 4 6 7 3 0 2 0

138 25.74 26.85 63.9%
Winnable

3 7 6 4 9 4 4 7 4 6 6 6 4 5 6 6 4 4 5 6 4 3 4 6 8 2 1 2 1

137 28.92 27.27 63.4%
PlusSixOne

1 7 6 5 5 4 4 9 6 5 5 6 4 4 6 5 6 5 6 6 5 5 3 8 6 2 2 1

137 17.28 28.44†1 63.7%
Punters

3 7 6 4 9 4 4 8 5 5 5 7 5 2 6 6 4 4 6 7 5 5 3 5 8 2 0 1 0

136 28.86 26.82 63.0%
Glicko Ratings

3 6 6 4 7 4 4 8 5 7 5 8 4 4 6 6 5 4 6 7 4 3 4 5 7 2 0 1 0

135 27.01 27.27 62.5%
footycharts

3 7 5 4 8 4 4 7 6 6 5 6 4 4 5 5 5 4 6 6 4 4 3 6 8 2 1 2 1

135 24.63 27.83 62.5%
Stattraction

1 5 6 4 9 4 3 8 5 5 6 7 4 3 5 6 6 4 6 6 5 3 4 6 8 2 1 2 1

135 24.46 27.53 62.5%
ZaphBot

3 5 6 6 8 4 4 7 4 4 5 7 3 4 5 6 5 4 6 6 6 4 3 6 6 3 1 2 0

133 28.20 26.76 61.6%
The Cruncher

3 6 6 4 8 4 4 8 5 5 5 7 4 3 6 6 4 4 6 6 4 3 3 6 8 3 0 2 0

133 27.48 27.05†2 62.1%

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Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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