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Hardest Round Ever?

Posted on July 21, 2017July 21, 2017 by Max Barry

It’s a tough round to tip, observes Matter of Stats:

I’ve been collecting complete TAB Bookmaker data on the line market since 2012, and the average expected victory margin this week – 12.9 points per game – is the lowest it’s been for any home and away round during that period.

Source: 2017 – Round 18 : Hardest Round Ever? — Matter of Stats

CategoriesMatter of Stats

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Wins % Range
1
 Sydney 16.8 127%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Port Adelaide 15.6 114%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Geelong 14.9 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
4
 GWS 14.9 109%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3–4
5
 Brisbane Lions 14.3 122%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5
6
 Western Bulldogs 13.8 125%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–7
7
 Hawthorn 13.9 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–7
8
 Carlton 13.1 111%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
9
 Fremantle 12.8 113%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–10
10
 Collingwood 12.7 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 9–10
11
 Essendon 11.4 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11
12
 St Kilda 10.7 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–14
13
 Gold Coast 10.9 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–14
14
 Melbourne 11.0 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–14
15
 Adelaide 8.4 99%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 West Coast 5.0 68%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 North Melbourne 3.0 63%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17
18
 Richmond 2.0 63%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18

After Round 26, 2024.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Sydney 17 6 – 126.7%
+-0.2
1
2
 Port Adelaide 16 7 – 114.8%
+-0.4
2
3
 Geelong 15 8 – 112.2%
+-0.1
3
4
 GWS 15 8 – 109.1%
+-0.1
4
5
 Brisbane Lions 14 8 1 121.9%
+-0.2
5
6
 Western Bulldogs 14 9 – 125.1%
+-0.2
6
7
 Hawthorn 14 9 – 118.5%
+-0.1
7
8
 Carlton 13 10 – 110.2%
+0.1
8
9
 Collingwood 12 9 2 102.5%
+-0.3
10
10
 Fremantle 12 10 1 111.9%
+0.3
9
11
 Essendon 11 11 1 93.5%
+-0.1
11
12
 St Kilda 11 12 – 99.4%
+-0.3
12
13
 Gold Coast 11 12 – 99.1%
+-0.1
13
14
 Melbourne 11 12 – 98.5%
+0.0
14
15
 Adelaide 8 14 1 99.1%
+-0.1
15
16
 West Coast 5 18 – 68.1%
+-0.0
16
17
 North Melbourne 3 20 – 63.5%
+-0.0
17
18
 Richmond 2 21 – 63.7%
+0.0
18

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Live Ladders

3 8 7 4 8 4 3 9 6 6 5 6 4 5 6 6 7 6 9 7 5 6 5 6 9 2 1 2 1

156 33.35 26.36 72.2%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 4 9 4 5 7 6 5 5 6 5 5 6 5 5 4 6 7 6 4 3 6 9 2 1 1 1

143 33.50 26.52 66.2%
Informed Stats

2 7 6 4 8 4 4 7 7 5 6 6 4 6 5 6 5 4 6 6 7 5 4 6 8 2 1 1 1

143 26.77 27.31 66.2%
The Wooden Finger

3 5 6 5 9 4 3 8 6 5 5 8 4 3 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 4 6 7 3 1 1 1

143 24.32 27.08 66.2%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 6 4 9 4 5 8 5 6 5 7 4 5 5 5 6 5 7 6 4 5 4 5 7 2 2 1 1

142 26.14 27.23 65.7%
AFLalytics

3 7 6 4 8 4 5 9 6 5 5 6 5 5 6 5 7 5 7 6 4 4 3 6 7 2 0 1 0

141 29.77 27.17 65.3%
Graft

2 6 6 4 9 4 4 8 5 6 5 7 3 5 6 6 7 4 7 6 5 5 4 6 6 3 0 1 1

141 27.38 27.27 65.3%
s10

3 6 6 4 8 4 5 9 6 5 5 7 5 5 6 6 4 4 7 7 5 3 3 6 7 2 0 1 1

140 30.91 26.70 64.8%
Squiggle

2 6 6 4 7 4 4 9 5 4 6 6 4 4 6 6 4 5 8 8 5 3 5 6 7 2 1 2 1

140 29.73 26.76 64.8%
Drop Kick Data

3 6 6 3 8 4 4 8 5 5 6 7 3 5 6 6 4 4 5 7 6 5 4 6 9 2 1 1 1

140 29.21 26.92 64.8%
Massey Ratings

2 7 8 4 7 4 3 8 6 6 5 7 3 4 6 6 6 4 7 7 5 5 3 6 6 2 1 1 1

140 27.51 26.79 64.8%
Aggregate

3 6 6 4 9 4 5 8 6 5 5 7 4 4 6 6 4 4 7 6 4 4 3 6 7 2 1 2 1

139 30.19 26.64 64.4%
What Snoo Thinks

3 6 6 5 8 4 4 8 7 6 6 7 3 4 6 6 5 4 6 6 4 3 4 6 7 2 2 1

139 28.36 27.23†2 65.0%
Elo Predicts!

3 7 7 5 9 4 5 8 5 5 5 7 3 4 6 6 5 4 6 5 4 4 3 6 7 2 1 2 1

139 27.41 26.80 64.4%
Matter of Stats

3 6 6 4 8 4 5 8 6 5 5 6 4 4 6 6 5 4 8 6 4 5 4 5 8 2 0 1 1

139 27.00 27.34 64.4%
Cheap Stats

1 7 6 4 9 4 5 8 5 5 6 7 4 3 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 3 5 6 9 2 1 2

139 26.60 27.27†1 64.7%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 4 8 4 5 9 5 5 5 7 3 4 6 6 6 3 5 7 7 4 4 6 7 2 0 1 1

139 21.53 28.11 64.4%
Data by Josh

3 7 6 4 6 4 4 9 5 6 4 8 6 5 6 6 6 4 5 7 6 2 4 6 9

138 32.10 26.50†13 68.0%
AFL Lab

3 7 6 4 9 3 4 8 5 4 5 6 3 4 4 4 6 6 8 7 6 5 4 4 8 2 2 0 1

138 28.01 26.72 63.9%
FMI

3 7 6 4 9 4 5 9 5 4 5 7 3 3 6 5 6 6 7 6 5 4 2 6 7 2 0 2 0

138 27.46 27.20†1 64.2%
Hyperion

1 7 7 4 9 4 5 9 5 6 6 7 3 3 6 5 6 5 5 6 4 5 3 7 8 2 0

138 26.81 27.44†4 65.1%
The Footycast

3 6 6 4 9 4 3 7 6 6 5 7 4 3 6 6 4 4 6 6 6 5 4 6 7 3 0 2 0

138 25.74 26.85 63.9%
Winnable

3 7 6 4 9 4 4 7 4 6 6 6 4 5 6 6 4 4 5 6 4 3 4 6 8 2 1 2 1

137 28.92 27.27 63.4%
PlusSixOne

1 7 6 5 5 4 4 9 6 5 5 6 4 4 6 5 6 5 6 6 5 5 3 8 6 2 2 1

137 17.28 28.44†1 63.7%
Punters

3 7 6 4 9 4 4 8 5 5 5 7 5 2 6 6 4 4 6 7 5 5 3 5 8 2 0 1 0

136 28.86 26.82 63.0%
Glicko Ratings

3 6 6 4 7 4 4 8 5 7 5 8 4 4 6 6 5 4 6 7 4 3 4 5 7 2 0 1 0

135 27.01 27.27 62.5%
footycharts

3 7 5 4 8 4 4 7 6 6 5 6 4 4 5 5 5 4 6 6 4 4 3 6 8 2 1 2 1

135 24.63 27.83 62.5%
Stattraction

1 5 6 4 9 4 3 8 5 5 6 7 4 3 5 6 6 4 6 6 5 3 4 6 8 2 1 2 1

135 24.46 27.53 62.5%
ZaphBot

3 5 6 6 8 4 4 7 4 4 5 7 3 4 5 6 5 4 6 6 6 4 3 6 6 3 1 2 0

133 28.20 26.76 61.6%
The Cruncher

3 6 6 4 8 4 4 8 5 5 5 7 4 3 6 6 4 4 6 6 4 3 3 6 8 3 0 2 0

133 27.48 27.05†2 62.1%

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About Squiggle

Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By Max Barry.

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