Hawthorn v Adelaide
York Park
6.11
47
5.14
44
Hawthorn won by 3 points
IN
Hustwaite
Watson
Worpel
Maginness
OUT
IN
Murphy
Peatling
OUT
| Tip | Win % | Margin | ✓ | MAE | Bits | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
s10
|
|
51% | 2 points | ✗ | 5.2 | -0.03 |
|
Aggregate
|
|
51% | 0 points | ✓ | 2.6 | 0.02 |
|
|
63% | 13 points | ✓ | 9.9 | 0.32 |
|
|
61% | 9 points | ✓ | 6.0 | 0.28 |
|
|
58% | 7 points | ✓ | 4.0 | 0.22 |
|
|
58% | 7 points | ✓ | 3.5 | 0.22 |
|
|
58% | 7 points | ✓ | 3.5 | 0.20 |
|
|
57% | 8 points | ✓ | 5.0 | 0.20 |
|
|
56% | 6 points | ✓ | 3.0 | 0.16 |
|
Punters
|
|
54% | 3 points | ✓ | 0.4 | 0.12 |
|
|
54% | 3 points | ✓ | 0.0 | 0.11 |
|
|
52% | 1 point | ✓ | 2.0 | 0.06 |
|
|
52% | 2 points | ✓ | 1.3 | 0.05 |
|
|
51% | 1 point | ✓ | 1.8 | 0.04 |
|
|
51% | 2 points | ✓ | 1.0 | 0.03 |
|
|
51% | 1 point | ✓ | 2.0 | 0.03 |
|
|
51% | 1 point | ✓ | 2.4 | 0.02 |
|
|
50% | 0 points | ✗ | 3.1 | -0.00 |
|
|
51% | 9 points | ✗ | 12.0 | -0.02 |
|
|
52% | 3 points | ✗ | 6.0 | -0.05 |
|
|
53% | 3 points | ✗ | 5.5 | -0.07 |
|
|
53% | 2 points | ✗ | 5.1 | -0.07 |
|
|
53% | 2 points | ✗ | 5.1 | -0.09 |
|
|
54% | 2 points | ✗ | 5.0 | -0.12 |
|
|
59% | 7 points | ✗ | 9.9 | -0.29 |
|
|
61% | 10 points | ✗ | 12.5 | -0.37 |
|
|
62% | 12 points | ✗ | 15.3 | -0.39 |
|
|
66% | 10 points | ✗ | 13.5 | -0.56 |
"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.
"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.
Drawn games are counted as correct tips.