Brisbane Lions v Carlton
2024-09-07 19:30:00 +10:00
Gabba

14.15

99

11.5

71

ELIMINATION FINAL

Brisbane Lions won by 28 points

IN

Starcevich

McKenna

Payne

Answerth

Joyce

Sharp

OUT

IN

Durdin

Docherty

McKay

McGovern

De Koning

Cerra

Owies

Cincotta

Carroll

Moir

Binns

Lord

OUT

	Tip	Win %	Margin	✓	MAE	Bits
s10		69%	19 points	✓	9.0	0.46
Aggregate		70%	19 points	✓	8.5	0.49
		83%	33 points	✓	5.3	0.73
		80%	32 points	✓	3.8	0.68
		79%	32 points	✓	4.0	0.66
		79%	27 points	✓	1.0	0.66
Punters		77%	24 points	✓	3.8	0.63
		77%	26 points	✓	1.7	0.63
		76%	25 points	✓	3.2	0.60
		75%	22 points	✓	6.2	0.58
		75%	21 points	✓	6.8	0.58
		73%	23 points	✓	5.0	0.55
		73%	23 points	✓	5.0	0.55
		72%	20 points	✓	7.5	0.53
		72%	21 points	✓	6.5	0.52
		71%	19 points	✓	9.1	0.50
		70%	18 points	✓	9.6	0.48
		69%	24 points	✓	4.0	0.45
		67%	22 points	✓	6.0	0.42
		67%	10 points	✓	17.5	0.42
		67%	13 points	✓	15.0	0.42
		66%	14 points	✓	13.6	0.39
		66%	13 points	✓	15.5	0.39
		64%	12 points	✓	15.5	0.36
		64%	14 points	✓	14.0	0.35
		63%	11 points	✓	17.0	0.34
		63%	6 points	✓	22.0	0.33
		62%	12 points	✓	16.2	0.30
		56%	7 points	✓	21.0	0.15

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

Drawn games are counted as correct tips.