Brisbane Lions v Adelaide
2024-07-07 16:10:00 +10:00
Gabba

14.13

97

13.8

86

Brisbane Lions won by 11 points

IN

Payne

McKenna

Wilmot

Joyce

OUT

IN

Murphy

Hamill

OUT

	Tip	Win %	Margin	✓	MAE	Bits
s10		76%	27 points	✓	16.0	0.61
Aggregate		76%	26 points	✓	14.9	0.61
		86%	38 points	✓	27.0	0.78
		84%	36 points	✓	24.6	0.76
		84%	32 points	✓	20.6	0.74
		83%	36 points	✓	24.6	0.73
		82%	32 points	✓	21.3	0.71
		80%	29 points	✓	17.5	0.67
Punters		80%	28 points	✓	16.5	0.67
		79%	28 points	✓	16.9	0.66
		78%	27 points	✓	16.2	0.65
		78%	28 points	✓	17.0	0.65
		78%	28 points	✓	16.5	0.64
		77%	28 points	✓	16.8	0.62
		77%	21 points	✓	10.2	0.61
		76%	23 points	✓	11.9	0.61
		76%	26 points	✓	15.0	0.60
		76%	21 points	✓	10.0	0.60
		75%	25 points	✓	13.6	0.59
		75%	23 points	✓	12.0	0.58
		75%	21 points	✓	9.5	0.58
		74%	21 points	✓	10.0	0.57
		74%	23 points	✓	12.1	0.56
		73%	31 points	✓	20.0	0.55
		73%	15 points	✓	3.5	0.54
		71%	23 points	✓	12.0	0.51
		70%	25 points	✓	14.0	0.49
		69%	21 points	✓	9.6	0.47
		69%	25 points	✓	14.0	0.45
		64%	15 points	✓	3.7	0.36

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

Drawn games are counted as correct tips.