What If: The Top Team Always Hosted The Grand Final (An Alternate History)

Rule: The Grand Final shall be hosted at the home ground of the participating side that finishes highest in the regular season and wins all its finals.

	Result	HGA*	Adjusted venue	Adjusted HGA	Adjusted result
1991	HAW by 53	HAW +6.3	Waverley Park

Disaster in the west as the Eagles, seemingly on track to host the first ever Grand Final outside Victoria, lose their Qualifying Final at Subiaco to Hawthorn. It delivers the Hawks the right to host the Grand Final at their home ground of Waverley Park, which, in a convenient twist of fate, is where it would have been held anyway, as the M.C.G. is unavailable due to renovations.

Hawthorn duly defend Victorian pride, keeping both the premiership and the Grand Final a local affair for one more year.

	Result	HGA	Adjusted venue	Adjusted HGA	Adjusted result
1992	WCE by 28	GEE +3.7	Subiaco	WCE +12.1	WCE by 44

A series of unexpected results sends the Grand Final to Perth after the Eagles upset the Cats in a semi-final. A fortnight later, the Eagles repeat the performance and set Perth alight with a historic home premiership.

	Result	HGA	Adjusted venue	Adjusted HGA	Adjusted result
1993	ESS by 44	ESS +1.0	MCG
1994	WCE by 80	GEE +3.6	WACA	WCE +12.6	WCE by 96

After an all-Victorian affair in 1993, West Coast win the right to host the 1994 Grand Final. But with Subiaco unavailable, it’s a debut for the W.A.C.A. The Eagles enter the match as strong favourites and are never challenged, belting the travelling Cats by 96 points.

	Result	HGA	Adjusted venue	Adjusted HGA	Adjusted result
1995	CAR by 61	CAR +2.7	MCG
1996	NOR by 43	NOR +8.4	SCG	SYD +13.3	NOR by 21

For the third time in five years, the Grand Final heads out of Victoria, this time to Sydney. Unrest in Victoria centers around how North Melbourne, who finished only half a game behind the Swans after an arguably tougher fixture, must play a Grand Final at a venue they haven’t visited all year. But the Kangaroos rise to the occasion, breaking away late to win by 21 points.

	Result	HGA	Adjusted venue	Adjusted HGA	Adjusted result
1997	ADE by 31	STK +6.1	Waverly Park	STK +7.9	ADE by 29

The Grand Final returns to Waverley Park with the Saints hosting. But they can’t stop Adelaide from becoming the first non-Victorian club to win a flag on Victorian soil.

	Result	HGA	Adjusted venue	Adjusted HGA	Adjusted result
1998	ADE by 35	NOR +7.9	MCG

The Crows seal their reputation as road warriors by winning the flag in Victoria for the second year in a row, this time from 5th place.

	Result	HGA	Adjusted venue	Adjusted HGA	Adjusted result
1999	NOR by 35	CAR +1.1	MCG
2000	ESS by 60	ESS +0.4	MCG
2001	BRI by 26	ESS +8.7	MCG
2002	BRI by 9	COL +8.7	Gabba	BRI+13.4	BRI by 30

After four successive Grand Finals at the MCG, the reigning premiers, Brisbane, take the Grand Final to the Gabba for the first time. They’re too strong there for Collingwood, recording a comfortable 30-point victory.

	Result	HGA	Adjusted venue	Adjusted HGA	Adjusted result
2003	BRI by 50	COL +8.7	MCG
2004	POR by 40	BRI +1.2	Football Park	POR +12.1	POR by 53

Brisbane clinch a threepeat on the road against Collingwood, but can’t make it four in a row at the first ever South Australian Grand Final. It’s the Lions’ first match at Football Park since Round 2 and they can’t match a rampaging Port Adelaide, who delight an ebullient local crowd with a 53-point win.

	Result	HGA	Adjusted venue	Adjusted HGA	Adjusted result
2005	SYD by 4	SYD +0.8	Subiaco	WCE +11.3	WCE by 8

After a nail-biting Qualifying Final, West Coast and Sydney face off again in the Grand Final, which returns to Perth for the first time in 11 years. In a gripping, see-sawing match, the Eagles triumph by 8 points, with a late Leo Barry grab unrewarded by the umpires.

	Result	HGA	Adjusted venue	Adjusted HGA	Adjusted result
2006	WCE by 1	SYD +0.6	Stadium Australia	SYD +12.2	SYD by 11

For the second year in a row, the Eagles and Swans wage an epic Qualifying Final at Subiaco, but this time the Swans emerge victorious. It sends the Grand Final to Stadium Australia, and at home the Swans exact revenge for the previous year. For the second year in a row, the Grand Final is decided by under two goals.

	Result	HGA	Adjusted venue	Adjusted HGA	Adjusted result
2007	GEE by 119	GEE +5.9	Kardinia Park	GEE +11.7	GEE by 125

Geelong’s epic 125-point demolition of Port Adelaide at Kardinia Park sparks calls for a review of the Grand Final hosting policy, with popular opinion holding that the unusual ground was responsible for Port Adelaide’s otherwise inexplicably poor performance.

	Result	HGA	Adjusted venue	Adjusted HGA	Adjusted result
2008	HAW by 26	HAW +2.6	Kardinia Park	GEE +11.4	HAW by 12

The Cats enter the Grand Final as the hottest of favourites, but talk of unfair home advantage ends as the Hawks pull off an extraordinary heist, winning 17.6 to 12.24 in the greatest premiership upset of the AFL era.

	Result	HGA	Adjusted venue	Adjusted HGA	Adjusted result
2009	GEE by 12	STK +1.8	Docklands	STK +3.5	GEE by 10

For the sixth year in a row, the MCG sits empty on Grand Final Day. Meanwhile, fifty thousand people watch Geelong defeat St Kilda in a classic at Docklands, the Cats leading by 4 points at the final siren before Rooke takes advantage of an unattended mark to push it to 10.

	Result	HGA	Adjusted venue	Adjusted HGA	Adjusted result
2010	DRAW	COL +2.2	MCG
2011	GEE by 38	COL +3.5	MCG
2012	SYD by 10	HAW +8.4	MCG
2013	HAW by 13	HAW +8.6	MCG
2014	HAW by 63	HAW +8.5	SCG	SYD +12.5	HAW by 42

After four outings at the MCG, the Grand Final returns to Stadium Australia in Sydney. But the Hawks are too strong on the day, upsetting the Swans by 42.

	Result	HGA	Adjusted venue	Adjusted HGA	Adjusted result
2015	HAW by 46	HAW +9.1	Subiaco	WCE +11.2	HAW by 26

West Coast bring the Grand Final back to Subiaco and enter with high expectations, after defeating the Hawks at the same venue in the Qualifying Final. But they can’t repeat the performance, with the Hawks kicking away early to quieten the local crowd.

	Result	HGA	Adjusted venue	Adjusted HGA	Adjusted result
2016	WBD by 22	WBD +7.2	SCG	SYD +11.7	WBD by 3

The Western Bulldogs complete one of the most remarkable finals campaigns ever by defeating Sydney by 3 points at the S.C.G. It is the closest margin in a Grand Final of the AFL era.

	Result	HGA	Adjusted venue	Adjusted HGA	Adjusted result
2017	RIC by 48	RIC +8.8	Adelaide Oval	ADE +11.2	RIC by 28

For only the second time, the Grand Final comes to Adelaide. But the Crows wilt under the pressure, falling to a swarming Richmond by 28 points.

Grand Finals by Venue:

MCG	11
Subiaco	3
SCG	3
Waverley Park	2
Kardinia Park	2
WACA	1
Stadium Australia	1
Gabba	1
Football Park	1
Docklands	1
Adelaide Oval	1

Grand Final Alternate Winners: 2 (2005, 2006).

* Home Ground Advantage (HGA) is calculated from the Squiggle HGA model of ground familiarity.

		Wins	%	Range
1	Sydney	16.8	127%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	1
2	Port Adelaide	15.6	114%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	2
3	Geelong	14.9	112%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	3–4
4	GWS	14.9	109%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	3–4
5	Brisbane Lions	14.3	122%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	5
6	Western Bulldogs	13.8	125%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	6–7
7	Hawthorn	13.9	118%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	6–7
8	Carlton	13.1	111%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	8–9
9	Fremantle	12.8	113%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	8–10
10	Collingwood	12.7	102%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	9–10
11	Essendon	11.4	93%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	11
12	St Kilda	10.7	99%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	12–14
13	Gold Coast	10.9	99%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	12–14
14	Melbourne	11.0	99%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	12–14
15	Adelaide	8.4	99%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	15
16	West Coast	5.0	68%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	16
17	North Melbourne	3.0	63%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	17
18	Richmond	2.0	63%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18	18

							PROJECTIONS
		W	L	D	%	History	Wins	Finish
1	Sydney	17	6	–	126.7%		+-0.2	1
2	Port Adelaide	16	7	–	114.8%		+-0.4	2
3	Geelong	15	8	–	112.2%		+-0.1	3
4	GWS	15	8	–	109.1%		+-0.1	4
5	Brisbane Lions	14	8	1	121.9%		+-0.2	5
6	Western Bulldogs	14	9	–	125.1%		+-0.2	6
7	Hawthorn	14	9	–	118.5%		+-0.1	7
8	Carlton	13	10	–	110.2%		+0.1	8
9	Collingwood	12	9	2	102.5%		+-0.3	10
10	Fremantle	12	10	1	111.9%		+0.3	9
11	Essendon	11	11	1	93.5%		+-0.1	11
12	St Kilda	11	12	–	99.4%		+-0.3	12
13	Gold Coast	11	12	–	99.1%		+-0.1	13
14	Melbourne	11	12	–	98.5%		+0.0	14
15	Adelaide	8	14	1	99.1%		+-0.1	15
16	West Coast	5	18	–	68.1%		+-0.0	16
17	North Melbourne	3	20	–	63.5%		+-0.0	17
18	Richmond	2	21	–	63.7%		+0.0	18

	Tips	Bits	MAE	Correct
3 8 7 4 8 4 3 9 6 6 5 6 4 5 6 6 7 6 9 7 5 6 5 6 9 2 1 2 1	156	33.35	26.36	72.2%
3 7 6 4 9 4 5 7 6 5 5 6 5 5 6 5 5 4 6 7 6 4 3 6 9 2 1 1 1	143	33.50	26.52	66.2%
2 7 6 4 8 4 4 7 7 5 6 6 4 6 5 6 5 4 6 6 7 5 4 6 8 2 1 1 1	143	26.77	27.31	66.2%
3 5 6 5 9 4 3 8 6 5 5 8 4 3 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 4 6 7 3 1 1 1	143	24.32	27.08	66.2%
2 7 6 4 9 4 5 8 5 6 5 7 4 5 5 5 6 5 7 6 4 5 4 5 7 2 2 1 1	142	26.14	27.23	65.7%
3 7 6 4 8 4 5 9 6 5 5 6 5 5 6 5 7 5 7 6 4 4 3 6 7 2 0 1 0	141	29.77	27.17	65.3%
2 6 6 4 9 4 4 8 5 6 5 7 3 5 6 6 7 4 7 6 5 5 4 6 6 3 0 1 1	141	27.38	27.27	65.3%
s10 3 6 6 4 8 4 5 9 6 5 5 7 5 5 6 6 4 4 7 7 5 3 3 6 7 2 0 1 1	140	30.91	26.70	64.8%
2 6 6 4 7 4 4 9 5 4 6 6 4 4 6 6 4 5 8 8 5 3 5 6 7 2 1 2 1	140	29.73	26.76	64.8%
3 6 6 3 8 4 4 8 5 5 6 7 3 5 6 6 4 4 5 7 6 5 4 6 9 2 1 1 1	140	29.21	26.92	64.8%
2 7 8 4 7 4 3 8 6 6 5 7 3 4 6 6 6 4 7 7 5 5 3 6 6 2 1 1 1	140	27.51	26.79	64.8%
Aggregate 3 6 6 4 9 4 5 8 6 5 5 7 4 4 6 6 4 4 7 6 4 4 3 6 7 2 1 2 1	139	30.19	26.64	64.4%
3 6 6 5 8 4 4 8 7 6 6 7 3 4 6 6 5 4 6 6 4 3 4 6 7 2 2 1	139	28.36	27.23^†2	65.0%
3 7 7 5 9 4 5 8 5 5 5 7 3 4 6 6 5 4 6 5 4 4 3 6 7 2 1 2 1	139	27.41	26.80	64.4%
3 6 6 4 8 4 5 8 6 5 5 6 4 4 6 6 5 4 8 6 4 5 4 5 8 2 0 1 1	139	27.00	27.34	64.4%
1 7 6 4 9 4 5 8 5 5 6 7 4 3 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 3 5 6 9 2 1 2	139	26.60	27.27^†1	64.7%
3 7 5 4 8 4 5 9 5 5 5 7 3 4 6 6 6 3 5 7 7 4 4 6 7 2 0 1 1	139	21.53	28.11	64.4%
3 7 6 4 6 4 4 9 5 6 4 8 6 5 6 6 6 4 5 7 6 2 4 6 9	138	32.10	26.50^†13	68.0%
3 7 6 4 9 3 4 8 5 4 5 6 3 4 4 4 6 6 8 7 6 5 4 4 8 2 2 0 1	138	28.01	26.72	63.9%
3 7 6 4 9 4 5 9 5 4 5 7 3 3 6 5 6 6 7 6 5 4 2 6 7 2 0 2 0	138	27.46	27.20^†1	64.2%
1 7 7 4 9 4 5 9 5 6 6 7 3 3 6 5 6 5 5 6 4 5 3 7 8 2 0	138	26.81	27.44^†4	65.1%
3 6 6 4 9 4 3 7 6 6 5 7 4 3 6 6 4 4 6 6 6 5 4 6 7 3 0 2 0	138	25.74	26.85	63.9%
3 7 6 4 9 4 4 7 4 6 6 6 4 5 6 6 4 4 5 6 4 3 4 6 8 2 1 2 1	137	28.92	27.27	63.4%
1 7 6 5 5 4 4 9 6 5 5 6 4 4 6 5 6 5 6 6 5 5 3 8 6 2 2 1	137	17.28	28.44^†1	63.7%
Punters 3 7 6 4 9 4 4 8 5 5 5 7 5 2 6 6 4 4 6 7 5 5 3 5 8 2 0 1 0	136	28.86	26.82	63.0%
3 6 6 4 7 4 4 8 5 7 5 8 4 4 6 6 5 4 6 7 4 3 4 5 7 2 0 1 0	135	27.01	27.27	62.5%
3 7 5 4 8 4 4 7 6 6 5 6 4 4 5 5 5 4 6 6 4 4 3 6 8 2 1 2 1	135	24.63	27.83	62.5%
1 5 6 4 9 4 3 8 5 5 6 7 4 3 5 6 6 4 6 6 5 3 4 6 8 2 1 2 1	135	24.46	27.53	62.5%
3 5 6 6 8 4 4 7 4 4 5 7 3 4 5 6 5 4 6 6 6 4 3 6 6 3 1 2 0	133	28.20	26.76	61.6%
3 6 6 4 8 4 4 8 5 5 5 7 4 3 6 6 4 4 6 6 4 3 3 6 8 3 0 2 0	133	27.48	27.05^†2	62.1%