What If: The Top Team Always Hosted The Grand Final (An Alternate History)

Rule: The Grand Final shall be hosted at the home ground of the participating side that finishes highest in the regular season and wins all its finals.

Result HGA* Adjusted venue Adjusted HGA Adjusted result
1991 HAW by 53 HAW +6.3 Waverley Park

Disaster in the west as the Eagles, seemingly on track to host the first ever Grand Final outside Victoria, lose their Qualifying Final at Subiaco to Hawthorn. It delivers the Hawks the right to host the Grand Final at their home ground of Waverley Park, which, in a convenient twist of fate, is where it would have been held anyway, as the M.C.G. is unavailable due to renovations.

Hawthorn duly defend Victorian pride, keeping both the premiership and the Grand Final a local affair for one more year.

Result HGA Adjusted venue Adjusted HGA Adjusted result
1992 WCE by 28 GEE +3.7 Subiaco WCE +12.1 WCE by 44

A series of unexpected results sends the Grand Final to Perth after the Eagles upset the Cats in a semi-final. A fortnight later, the Eagles repeat the performance and set Perth alight with a historic home premiership.

Result HGA Adjusted venue Adjusted HGA Adjusted result
1993 ESS by 44 ESS +1.0 MCG
1994 WCE by 80 GEE +3.6 WACA WCE +12.6 WCE by 96

After an all-Victorian affair in 1993, West Coast win the right to host the 1994 Grand Final. But with Subiaco unavailable, it’s a debut for the W.A.C.A. The Eagles enter the match as strong favourites and are never challenged, belting the travelling Cats by 96 points.

Result HGA Adjusted venue Adjusted HGA Adjusted result
1995 CAR by 61 CAR +2.7 MCG
1996 NOR by 43 NOR +8.4 SCG SYD +13.3 NOR by 21

For the third time in five years, the Grand Final heads out of Victoria, this time to Sydney. Unrest in Victoria centers around how North Melbourne, who finished only half a game behind the Swans after an arguably tougher fixture, must play a Grand Final at a venue they haven’t visited all year. But the Kangaroos rise to the occasion, breaking away late to win by 21 points.

Result HGA Adjusted venue Adjusted HGA Adjusted result
1997 ADE by 31 STK +6.1 Waverly Park STK +7.9 ADE by 29

The Grand Final returns to Waverley Park with the Saints hosting. But they can’t stop Adelaide from becoming the first non-Victorian club to win a flag on Victorian soil.

Result HGA Adjusted venue Adjusted HGA Adjusted result
1998 ADE by 35 NOR +7.9 MCG

The Crows seal their reputation as road warriors by winning the flag in Victoria for the second year in a row, this time from 5th place.

Result HGA Adjusted venue Adjusted HGA Adjusted result
1999 NOR by 35 CAR +1.1 MCG
2000 ESS by 60 ESS +0.4 MCG
2001 BRI by 26 ESS +8.7 MCG
2002 BRI by 9 COL +8.7 Gabba BRI+13.4 BRI by 30

After four successive Grand Finals at the MCG, the reigning premiers, Brisbane, take the Grand Final to the Gabba for the first time. They’re too strong there for Collingwood, recording a comfortable 30-point victory.

Result HGA Adjusted venue Adjusted HGA Adjusted result
2003 BRI by 50 COL +8.7 MCG
2004 POR by 40 BRI +1.2 Football Park POR +12.1 POR by 53

Brisbane clinch a threepeat on the road against Collingwood, but can’t make it four in a row at the first ever South Australian Grand Final. It’s the Lions’ first match at Football Park since Round 2 and they can’t match a rampaging Port Adelaide, who delight an ebullient local crowd with a 53-point win.

Result HGA Adjusted venue Adjusted HGA Adjusted result
2005 SYD by 4 SYD +0.8 Subiaco WCE +11.3 WCE by 8

After a nail-biting Qualifying Final, West Coast and Sydney face off again in the Grand Final, which returns to Perth for the first time in 11 years. In a gripping, see-sawing match, the Eagles triumph by 8 points, with a late Leo Barry grab unrewarded by the umpires.

Result HGA Adjusted venue Adjusted HGA Adjusted result
2006 WCE by 1 SYD +0.6 Stadium Australia SYD +12.2 SYD by 11

For the second year in a row, the Eagles and Swans wage an epic Qualifying Final at Subiaco, but this time the Swans emerge victorious. It sends the Grand Final to Stadium Australia, and at home the Swans exact revenge for the previous year. For the second year in a row, the Grand Final is decided by under two goals.

Result HGA Adjusted venue Adjusted HGA Adjusted result
2007 GEE by 119 GEE +5.9 Kardinia Park GEE +11.7 GEE by 125

Geelong’s epic 125-point demolition of Port Adelaide at Kardinia Park sparks calls for a review of the Grand Final hosting policy, with popular opinion holding that the unusual ground was responsible for Port Adelaide’s otherwise inexplicably poor performance.

Result HGA Adjusted venue Adjusted HGA Adjusted result
2008 HAW by 26 HAW +2.6 Kardinia Park GEE +11.4 HAW by 12

The Cats enter the Grand Final as the hottest of favourites, but talk of unfair home advantage ends as the Hawks pull off an extraordinary heist, winning 17.6 to 12.24 in the greatest premiership upset of the AFL era.

Result HGA Adjusted venue Adjusted HGA Adjusted result
2009 GEE by 12 STK +1.8 Docklands STK +3.5 GEE by 10

For the sixth year in a row, the MCG sits empty on Grand Final Day. Meanwhile, fifty thousand people watch Geelong defeat St Kilda in a classic at Docklands, the Cats leading by 4 points at the final siren before Rooke takes advantage of an unattended mark to push it to 10.

Result HGA Adjusted venue Adjusted HGA Adjusted result
2010 DRAW COL +2.2 MCG
2011 GEE by 38 COL +3.5 MCG
2012 SYD by 10 HAW +8.4 MCG
2013 HAW by 13 HAW +8.6 MCG
2014 HAW by 63 HAW +8.5 SCG SYD +12.5 HAW by 42

After four outings at the MCG, the Grand Final returns to Stadium Australia in Sydney. But the Hawks are too strong on the day, upsetting the Swans by 42.

Result HGA Adjusted venue Adjusted HGA Adjusted result
2015 HAW by 46 HAW +9.1 Subiaco WCE +11.2 HAW by 26

West Coast bring the Grand Final back to Subiaco and enter with high expectations, after defeating the Hawks at the same venue in the Qualifying Final. But they can’t repeat the performance, with the Hawks kicking away early to quieten the local crowd.

Result HGA Adjusted venue Adjusted HGA Adjusted result
2016 WBD by 22 WBD +7.2 SCG SYD +11.7 WBD by 3

The Western Bulldogs complete one of the most remarkable finals campaigns ever by defeating Sydney by 3 points at the S.C.G. It is the closest margin in a Grand Final of the AFL era.

Result HGA Adjusted venue Adjusted HGA Adjusted result
2017 RIC by 48 RIC +8.8 Adelaide Oval ADE +11.2 RIC by 28

For only the second time, the Grand Final comes to Adelaide. But the Crows wilt under the pressure, falling to a swarming Richmond by 28 points.

Grand Finals by Venue:

MCG 11
Subiaco 3
SCG 3
Waverley Park 2
Kardinia Park 2
WACA 1
Stadium Australia 1
Gabba 1
Football Park 1
Docklands 1
Adelaide Oval 1

Grand Final Alternate Winners: 2 (2005, 2006).

* Home Ground Advantage (HGA) is calculated from the Squiggle HGA model of ground familiarity.