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Does home ground advantage still exist?

Posted on June 29, 2017June 29, 2017 by Max Barry

The Arc @ ESPN takes a close look at home ground advantage.

A spate of upsets have left many of us pondering whether or not home ground advantage is still a thing in the AFL. It’s time to answer that question.

Source: Footy Forensics: Does home ground advantage still exist?

CategoriesThe Arc

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Wins % Range
1
 Fremantle 19.5 142%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1
2
 Sydney 16.5 131%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 2
3
 Hawthorn 16.0 124%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 3
4
 Brisbane Lions 15.5 121%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 4
5
 Adelaide 14.7 117%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 5
6
 Melbourne 14.1 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–7
7
 Geelong 13.7 121%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–9
8
 Western Bulldogs 13.8 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 6–8
9
 Collingwood 13.2 105%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 8–9
10
 St Kilda 11.3 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–11
11
 GWS 10.3 101%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 11–13
12
 Carlton 10.6 92%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10–12
13
 North Melbourne 9.7 87%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12–13
14
 Gold Coast 8.7 93%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 14
15
 Port Adelaide 8.2 97%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 15
16
 West Coast 5.5 72%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 16
17
 Essendon 3.1 66%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18
18
 Richmond 3.2 62%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17–18

After 8 games of Round 20, 2026.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
 Fremantle 17 2 – 146.0%
+2.5
1
2
 Sydney 14 5 – 130.0%
+2.5
2
3
 Hawthorn 13 5 1 124.0%
+2.5
3
4
 Brisbane Lions 13 6 – 120.6%
+2.5
4
5
 Adelaide 12 7 – 113.7%
+2.7
5
6
 Melbourne 12 7 – 107.8%
+2.1
6
7
 Western Bulldogs 12 7 – 96.8%
+1.8
8
8
 Collingwood 11 7 1 107.7%
+1.7
9
9
 Geelong 11 8 – 116.5%
+2.7
7
10
 Carlton 9 10 – 92.4%
+1.6
12
11
 St Kilda 8∗ 10 – 104.0%
+3.3
10
12
 GWS 8 11 – 98.3%
+2.3
11
13
 North Melbourne 8∗ 10 – 90.9%
+1.7
13
14
 Gold Coast 7 12 – 94.8%
+1.7
14
15
 Port Adelaide 6 13 – 95.6%
+2.2
15
16
 West Coast 4 15 – 70.1%
+1.5
16
17
 Essendon 2 17 – 65.4%
+1.1
17
18
 Richmond 2 17 – 60.9%
+1.2
18

∗ Yet to play

Power Rankings

Models Leaderboard

Tips Bits MAE Correct
Drop Kick Data

3 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 6 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 6

130 42.2242 42.22 24.8643 24.86 76.4706 76.5%
ZaphBot

2 7 5 6 5 8 7 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 6 6 6 8 8 7

129 43.9308 43.93 25.5000 25.50 75.8824 75.9%
Wheelo Ratings

3 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 7

128 40.9115 40.91 24.4781 24.48 75.2941 75.3%
Holy Grail Ratings

4 8 5 6 4 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 6 6 5 5 5 9 6 6

128 28.6465 28.65 25.2283 25.23 75.2941 75.3%
s10

2 8 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 7

126 43.3807 43.38 24.9218 24.92 74.1176 74.1%
AFLalytics

4 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 9 6 7

126 42.1686 42.17 25.0358 25.04 74.1176 74.1%
Punters

2 6 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 7

125 43.1072 43.11 24.9778 24.98 73.5294 73.5%
Aggregate

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 7

125 41.0239 41.02 24.9775 24.98 73.5294 73.5%
Glicko Ratings

3 7 5 5 6 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 5 8 6 7

125 38.3751 38.38 25.4041 25.40 73.5294 73.5%
Don't Blame the Data

2 7 5 6 5 8 8 7 7 8 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 7

124 44.4385 44.44 25.3377 25.34 72.9412 72.9%
Informed Stats

2 7 4 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 7

124 40.9783 40.98 25.4353 25.44 72.9412 72.9%
What Snoo Thinks

3 8 5 6 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 7 6 5 5 8 6 7

124 38.1601 38.16 25.5044 25.50 72.9412 72.9%
The Wooden Finger

2 8 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 9 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 5 8 6 7

123 41.3933 41.39 26.2647 26.26 72.3529 72.4%
AFL Lab

2 7 4 6 6 7 8 7 6 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 7

123 39.0756 39.08 25.8145 25.81 72.3529 72.4%
Matter of Stats

3 7 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 7

122 41.7608 41.76 25.5015 25.50 71.7647 71.8%
Winnable

1 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 5 6 5 6 6 8 6 7

122 40.5944 40.59 25.0365 25.04 71.7647 71.8%
footycharts

3 7 5 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 5 5 5 6 5 8 6 7

121 40.1769 40.18 25.1589 25.16 71.1765 71.2%
Stattraction

2 6 5 6 4 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 5 8 6 7

121 39.5998 39.60 25.2770 25.28 71.1765 71.2%
PlusSixOne

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 6

121 37.0704 37.07 25.1724 25.17 71.1765 71.2%
Cheap Stats

3 5 3 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 8 6 6

121 31.4917 31.49 26.2426 26.24 †1 71.5976 71.6%
The Cruncher

2 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 8 5 6

120 37.5461 37.55 26.4828 26.48 †2 71.4286 71.4%
HBin

4 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 7 8 5 4 3 4 5 5 5 6 8 7 7

120 37.1690 37.17 25.4106 25.41 70.5882 70.6%
The Footycast

2 7 4 5 5 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 6 8 7 6

120 32.6523 32.65 25.7376 25.74 70.5882 70.6%
Live Ladders

2 7 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 4 5 5 8 6 7

118 37.8265 37.83 25.8000 25.80 69.4118 69.4%
In The Game

2 6 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 5 4 6 5 7 6 6

117 38.9443 38.94 26.5214 26.52 68.8235 68.8%
Graft

3 7 4 6 4 5 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 4 5 5 5 5 8 6 7

117 37.2305 37.23 26.5353 26.54 68.8235 68.8%
Squiggle

1 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 6 5 5 5 8 5 7

116 35.5195 35.52 25.6606 25.66 68.2353 68.2%
Elo Predicts!

3 6 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 9 5 5 3 5 5 6 6 5 8 6 7

116 34.9958 35.00 26.7471 26.75 68.2353 68.2%
Hyperion

3 5 4 5 5 8 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 9 7 7

116 34.8418 34.84 25.9130 25.91 †9 72.0497 72.0%
AFL Scorigami

3 7 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 4 5 4 5 5 7 6 6

116 31.8958 31.90 26.8008 26.80 68.2353 68.2%
Massey Ratings

2 4 5 8 8 7 9 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 7 7

105 37.2055 37.21 26.1897 26.19 †25 72.4138 72.4%

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