Ladder Scoreboard 2019

Here is a 12-tweet thread about the Ladder Scoreboard that I introduced this year, which tracks the accuracy of models’ weekly ladder projections.

This year, Squiggle recorded models' final ladder predictions each week, including their estimate of teams' chances of finishing in each position. How well did they do? A thread. (1/12) pic.twitter.com/rYATHgxljS
— Max Barry (@SquiggleAFL) September 12, 2019

Wins

Range

Geelong

17.1

127%

GWS

15.2

120%

2–5

Sydney

15.0

122%

2–4

Melbourne

14.8

120%

2–5

Carlton

14.3

113%

3–6

Port Adelaide

13.8

112%

4–6

Collingwood

12.6

106%

7–10

Gold Coast

11.9

102%

7–12

Fremantle

11.7

102%

7–13

Essendon

11.7

96%

8–13

Western Bulldogs

11.5

108%

8–11

Brisbane Lions

11.3

105%

9–12

St Kilda

10.2

97%

12–14

Adelaide

9.7

96%

12–14

Hawthorn

7.3

81%

15–17

Richmond

7.1

81%

15–17

West Coast

7.1

77%

15–17

North Melbourne

3.3

61%

PROJECTIONS

History

Wins

Finish

Geelong

–

135.4%

+10.1

Sydney

–

147.7%

+9.0

GWS

–

136.3%

+9.2

Melbourne

–

126.1%

+9.8

Port Adelaide

–

120.3%

+8.8

Carlton

–

112.1%

+9.3

Essendon

93.7%

+7.2

Fremantle

–

111.7%

+7.7

Gold Coast

–

101.0%

+7.9

Collingwood

97.9%

+9.1

Western Bulldogs

–

114.7%

+8.5

Adelaide

–

96.6%

+7.7

Brisbane Lions

–

94.2%

+9.3

St Kilda

–

89.3%

+8.2

West Coast

–

74.1%

+5.1

Richmond

–

75.5%

+6.1

Hawthorn

–

69.9%

+6.3

North Melbourne

–

57.3%

+3.3

Models Leaderboard

	Tips	Bits	MAE	Correct
3 7 7 5 9 4 5 8	48	10.80	23.62	76.2%
3 7 6 4 9 4 5 9	47	10.52	24.14	74.6%
1 7 7 4 9 4 5 9	46	12.29	23.65	73.0%
3 7 6 4 8 4 5 9	46	10.53	25.11	73.0%
3 8 7 4 8 4 3 9	46	10.25	24.65	73.0%
3 7 6 4 9 4 5 7	45	13.07	23.68	71.4%
Punters 3 7 6 4 9 4 4 8	45	11.02	23.95	71.4%
s10 3 6 6 4 8 4 5 9	45	10.49	24.56	71.4%
Aggregate 3 6 6 4 9 4 5 8	45	10.07	24.49	71.4%
2 7 6 4 9 4 5 8	45	8.18	25.11	71.4%
3 7 5 4 8 4 5 9	45	7.68	26.28	71.4%
3 7 6 4 9 4 4 7	44	10.28	24.70	69.8%
1 7 6 4 9 4 5 8	44	9.26	25.02	69.8%
3 6 6 5 8 4 4 8	44	9.19	25.20	69.8%
3 6 6 4 8 4 5 8	44	8.75	25.29	69.8%
3 7 6 4 9 3 4 8	44	7.47	24.49	69.8%
3 7 6 4 6 4 4 9	43	12.71	25.21	68.3%
3 6 6 4 8 4 4 8	43	10.88	24.80	68.3%
2 6 6 4 9 4 4 8	43	9.53	24.89	68.3%
2 7 8 4 7 4 3 8	43	9.05	24.87	68.3%
3 5 6 5 9 4 3 8	43	8.13	25.48	68.3%
3 5 6 6 8 4 4 7	43	7.85	24.76	68.3%
3 6 6 4 7 4 4 8	42	9.82	25.26	66.7%
2 6 6 4 7 4 4 9	42	9.81	24.67	66.7%
3 6 6 3 8 4 4 8	42	9.26	25.18	66.7%
3 6 6 4 9 4 3 7	42	8.07	24.94	66.7%
3 7 5 4 8 4 4 7	42	7.68	25.36	66.7%
2 7 6 4 8 4 4 7	42	5.66	25.98	66.7%
1 7 6 5 5 4 4 9	41	4.69	27.62	65.1%
1 5 6 4 9 4 3 8	40	7.36	26.34	63.5%