Port Adelaide v Geelong
Adelaide Oval
14.7
91
17.10
112
Geelong won by 21 points
IN
Bergman
Fantasia
OUT
IN
O'Connor
Duncan
Blicavs
Dangerfield
Stanley
Narkle
Guthrie
Holmes
OUT
| Tip | Win % | Margin | ✓ | MAE | Bits | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Aggregate
|
|
53% | 3 points | ✗ | 24.0 | -0.09 |
|
|
72% | 19 points | ✗ | 40.0 | -0.82 |
|
|
63% | 12 points | ✗ | 33.4 | -0.45 |
|
|
56% | 5 points | ✗ | 26.0 | -0.17 |
|
|
55% | 4 points | ✗ | 25.0 | -0.16 |
|
|
55% | 5 points | ✗ | 26.1 | -0.16 |
|
|
55% | 7 points | ✗ | 28.0 | -0.15 |
|
|
55% | 5 points | ✗ | 26.0 | -0.15 |
|
|
55% | 3 points | ✗ | 23.5 | -0.14 |
|
|
54% | 3 points | ✗ | 24.3 | -0.12 |
|
|
51% | 1 point | ✗ | 21.7 | -0.02 |
|
s10
|
|
51% | 1 point | ✗ | 21.6 | -0.02 |
|
|
51% | 1 point | ✗ | 22.0 | -0.01 |
|
Punters
|
|
53% | 3 points | ✓ | 18.3 | 0.08 |
|
|
53% | 2 points | ✓ | 19.0 | 0.08 |
|
|
54% | 3 points | ✓ | 18.0 | 0.10 |
|
|
56% | 5 points | ✓ | 15.8 | 0.15 |
|
|
56% | 4 points | ✓ | 16.6 | 0.16 |
"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.
"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.
Drawn games are counted as correct tips.