Adelaide v Hawthorn
2025-08-01 19:40:00 +10:00
Adelaide Oval

15.11

101

13.9

87

Adelaide won by 14 points

IN

Bond

Smith

Cumming

Laird

Michalanney

Pedlar

OUT

IN

Chol

Macdonald

OUT

	Tip	Win %	Margin	✓	MAE	Bits
s10		66%	13 points	✓	1.1	0.39
Aggregate		67%	15 points	✓	1.4	0.42
		81%	31 points	✓	17.2	0.69
		77%	27 points	✓	13.0	0.62
		75%	32 points	✓	18.0	0.59
		74%	19 points	✓	4.5	0.56
		73%	21 points	✓	7.0	0.55
		73%	20 points	✓	6.0	0.54
		73%	18 points	✓	3.9	0.54
		73%	22 points	✓	8.0	0.54
		69%	11 points	✓	3.4	0.47
		69%	19 points	✓	5.2	0.46
		68%	18 points	✓	3.5	0.45
		67%	16 points	✓	1.6	0.42
		66%	12 points	✓	2.0	0.40
Punters		65%	13 points	✓	1.4	0.38
		64%	13 points	✓	1.0	0.37
		64%	12 points	✓	1.6	0.36
		64%	15 points	✓	0.6	0.36
		64%	12 points	✓	1.8	0.35
		64%	11 points	✓	2.6	0.35
		63%	1 point	✓	13.0	0.32
		61%	15 points	✓	1.0	0.29
		60%	11 points	✓	3.4	0.27
		60%	9 points	✓	5.0	0.27
		59%	7 points	✓	6.7	0.24
		58%	8 points	✓	6.0	0.21
		57%	7 points	✓	6.5	0.20

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

Drawn games are counted as correct tips.