North Melbourne v Hawthorn
2024-04-21 16:00:00 +10:00
Docklands

10.8

68

17.11

113

Hawthorn won by 45 points

IN

Phillips

Zurhaar

Wardlaw

Sellers

OUT

IN

Serong

Gunston

Morrison

Macdonald

Ward

Ramsden

OUT

	Tip	Win %	Margin	✓	MAE	Bits
s10		70%	19 points	✓	26.4	0.48
Aggregate		67%	17 points	✓	28.4	0.43
		80%	26 points	✓	19.5	0.68
		79%	25 points	✓	19.6	0.66
		78%	25 points	✓	20.0	0.64
		77%	26 points	✓	19.1	0.62
		76%	27 points	✓	18.0	0.60
		75%	24 points	✓	21.4	0.59
		75%	23 points	✓	22.0	0.58
		74%	23 points	✓	22.0	0.57
		74%	23 points	✓	22.4	0.56
		71%	19 points	✓	25.7	0.51
		70%	16 points	✓	29.0	0.49
		70%	18 points	✓	27.1	0.48
Punters		70%	18 points	✓	26.9	0.48
		69%	20 points	✓	25.0	0.46
		69%	16 points	✓	29.4	0.45
		67%	17 points	✓	27.8	0.43
		67%	14 points	✓	30.7	0.43
		66%	15 points	✓	30.0	0.40
		65%	18 points	✓	27.0	0.38
		64%	15 points	✓	30.0	0.35
		63%	13 points	✓	32.1	0.34
		63%	17 points	✓	28.0	0.33
		63%	17 points	✓	28.0	0.32
		59%	7 points	✓	38.5	0.23
		53%	1 point	✓	43.5	0.09
		53%	3 points	✓	42.3	0.07
		52%	2 points	✓	43.0	0.06
		54%	3 points	✗	48.0	-0.12

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

Drawn games are counted as correct tips.