Brisbane Lions v Adelaide

Gabba

93

92

Match complete
Brisbane Lions won by 1 point

TipWin %Margin MAEBits
Aggregate
Adelaide
50% 0 points 1.3-0.01
Adelaide
64% 9 points 10.0-0.47
Adelaide
63% 16 points 16.9-0.44
Adelaide
56% 5 points 6.0-0.17
Adelaide
55% 4 points 5.0-0.15
Adelaide
54% 4 points 4.6-0.11
Adelaide
54% 3 points 3.7-0.11
Adelaide
53% 3 points 4.0-0.08
Adelaide
52% 3 points 4.0-0.06
Adelaide
52% 2 points 3.0-0.06
Adelaide
50% 0 points 1.00.00
Brisbane Lions
52% 2 points 1.00.05
Brisbane Lions
52% 2 points 1.00.05
Punters
Brisbane Lions
54% 5 points 3.50.12
Brisbane Lions
57% 5 points 3.70.18
Brisbane Lions
64% 14 points 13.10.35
Brisbane Lions
68% 16 points 14.70.43

"Bits" from Monash University Probabilistic Footy Tipping rewards tipsters for saying a win was more likely and punishes them for saying it was unlikely. Higher is better.

"MAE" is Mean Absolute Error, the average difference between predicted and actual margins. Lower is better.

Drawn games are counted as correct tips.

Round 9, 2019